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  • (Are stocks still a good bet in 2018?)

    (股票在 2018 年仍是個好標的嗎?)

  • In 2018, we are still bullish on equities.

    我們仍然看好股票在 2018 年的表現

  • I think you are going to get the best returns out of stocks relative to other asset classes.

    我們覺得你將能在股票中取得比其他資產更好的報酬

  • My top two favorite sectors going to 2018 are technology and financial services,

    我 2018 年最看好的兩個類股是科技股及金融股

  • particularly large cap banks in the US.

    特別是美國的大型銀行股

  • (Why are banks a good investment?)

    (為什麼銀行股是好投資目標呢?)

  • Banks, I think, are really intresting

    我覺得銀行股非常有趣

  • because there are a lot of, I think, tailwinds and drivers in 2018.

    因為在 2018 年,他們是站在風口的產業,也有太多動能在其中

  • The first I would say is we've had less regulatory pressure there,

    首先我要提的是我們有很寬鬆的監管壓力

  • so banks can go back to regular business.

    所以銀行可以回去做他們傳統的生意

  • The second is we don't think the market is pricing in the full scope of FED policy rate increases,

    第二點是我們認為市場尚未完全反應聯準會加息的政策

  • and that's gonna be supportive of margins for the banks.

    這對於銀行業的利潤而言是個很好的支撐

  • The third is that, you know, global and US growth is quite strong,

    第三點是全球及美國本土的經濟成長強勁

  • so we're gonna see continued demand for and use of financial services.

    代表說我們將會繼續看到需求出現以及財務服務被更多地使用

  • And the fourth is, I think,

    第四點我認為是

  • we're gonna have a huge amount of capital return coming from the banks to investors.

    投資人將從銀行那取得大量的資本報酬

  • We know that many banks have been clear to increase their dividends,

    我們知道說很多銀行都表態要增加他們的配息

  • and they know equity income, we think, is an increasingly important part of overall portfolio allocation.

    他們知道股票收入在整體投資組合中扮演了越來越重要的角色

  • So, I would say we have a good regulatory environment, we have a good macro,

    所以我會說我們有很好的監管環境、很好的總經環境

  • and monetary policy environment, good demand and a very good story for dividends.

    和貨幣政策、很好的需求以及很好的配息前景

  • (How long will this bull market last?)

    (這牛市還會持續多久)

  • It's really hard to predict how much longer this cycle or this bull market in equities can go on.

    很難預測這次的循環或股票牛市會走多久

  • But, what I do know is we don't have a huge amount of excess in the market.

    但我知道市場上過剩的情形還沒發生

  • And by that I mean companies have not been overinvesting.

    我這句話的意思是許多公司還沒被過度投資

  • They've been very thoughtful about how they've deployed capital.

    公司們都很慎重地在配置資產

  • They've been cautious about how quickly they hire.

    對於他們新招員工的速率也都小心應對

  • Capital expenditure has been lower than other cycles.

    資本支出比往年的循環都來得低

  • And normally when you get too much investment, it leads to kind of overheating.

    一般來說當過度投資發生時,過熱的情況就會出現

  • We also don't have to deal with a significant amount of inflationary pressure.

    我們也不用去面對沉重的通膨壓力

  • Our expectation is that inflation is gonna pick up a little bit from kind of lower levels right now,

    我們預期通膨會從低基期稍稍上升

  • but that we are not get so much inflationary pressure

    但仍沒有會驅使聯準會加速升息而破壞經濟擴張的

  • that really causes the Fed to raise interest rates so fast and really kills the expansion.

    巨大通膨壓力

  • The last thing I would say is

    最後我想說的是

  • we are at or close to full employment in the US,

    我們現在正處在或是接近充分就業

  • and we see wage's rising and more discretionary spent. It's a possibility.

    我們看到工資率正在上揚,越來越多的隨意支出在發生

  • And that consumers actually will continue to be an active part of the economy.

    而消費者仍然會是推動經濟的主要動力

(Are stocks still a good bet in 2018?)

(股票在 2018 年仍是個好標的嗎?)

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2018年股票還是好賭嗎?我財富 (Are Stocks Still A Good Bet In 2018? I Fortune)

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    林恩立   發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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