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  • Have you seen these type of articles before?

    你有看過這些文章嗎?

  • Things like, "12 Things Successful People Do Differently".

    像是「成功人士做的十二件與眾不同的事」。

  • Or, "13 Tips From The World's Most Successful People".

    或是「世界上最成功的人提供的十三個小技巧」。

  • The logic is: if it helped them get success, it should at least be somewhat helpful to you, right?

    這邏輯就是:如果這東西會讓他們成功,在某種程度上也應該對你有點幫助,對吧?

  • Yet, this type of logic is fundamentally flawed and could very well make you worse off.

    但是這邏輯基本上是有瑕疵的,甚至會讓你變得更糟。

  • To show just how easy it is to get fooled by these success stories, imagine this simple scam: first, get the email address of 50.000 people, next tell them you're part of a hedge fund that can accurately predict the stock market.

    為了展示人們為何容易上這些成功故事的當,讓我們想像一個簡單的騙局:首先,拿到五萬個人的郵件地址然後告訴他們你是避險基金的專員,可以精準預測股市發展。

  • Now, here is the trick: to half of them, say that the stock markets will go up and make up some reasonable explanation as for why.

    現在耍個小把戲:對著一半的人說股市將會上漲且編造一些合理的理由讓他們相信。

  • To the other half, say the stock markets will go down.

    對另一半的人說股市接下來會下跌。

  • Now, by the end of the week the stocks will either move up or down.

    在周末股市會上漲或是下跌。

  • Let's say the stocks moved up.

    假設股市上漲了。

  • All you need to do is call the half which received the wrong prediction.

    你所要做的只是打電話給那些得到錯誤預測的人。

  • So, out of the remaining 25000, once again tell half that the stocks will rise and the other half that it will fall.

    接著,在剩下的兩萬五千人中,告訴一半的人股市會上漲,而跟另一半的人說股市會下跌。

  • At the end of the week, call the half with the wrong prediction and repeat.

    在周末時打電話給收到錯誤預測的那一半,並重複這些步驟。

  • Ultimately, by the end of week 10 you would have shown around 50 people that you can accurately predict the stock markets 10 weeks in a row.

    最後,在第十個周末時你已經向差不多五十個人展現了你可以準確預測連續十週的股市走向。

  • Sounds pretty impressive, right?

    聽起來很棒,對吧?

  • In fact, if they'd then entrusted 10000 dollars to your hedge fund, you would've run away with half a million dollars.

    事實上,如果他們因此而各自託付了一萬美元到你的避險基金,你便可以帶著五十萬捲款潛逃。

  • Now, you might be thinking "surely this doesn't happen in real life!"

    現在你可能想著:「這在現實生活中根本不可能發生!」

  • Well, it does.

    這個嘛!會的。

  • But we are those 50 remaining people.

    但我們是剩下來的那五十人。

  • Because we are so in awe of these successful people.

    因為我們總是很敬畏那些成功的人。

  • We don't even consider that there might be some other huge factors at play, such as: luck!

    我們甚至沒去想其實還有許多因素影響著,例如:運氣!

  • For example, let's say you wanted financial advice.

    舉個例子,假設你需要財務上的建議。

  • One hyper common advice, given on how to get rich is to take risks.

    一個極為常見教你致富的建議就是去承擔風險。

  • Because even if you fail, you can still learn from your failures.

    因為即使你失敗了,還是可以從錯誤中學習。

  • That makes sense, right?

    這聽起來很合理,對吧?

  • However, consider all the people who are bankrupt.

    然而,想想那些破產的人。

  • No doubt, they took risks too.

    無庸置疑地,他們也承擔風險了。

  • So, where's their success?

    那他們的成功在哪裡?

  • Clearly, if we only listen to the winner's story, there's no balancing force of bankrupt people telling us to be more careful.

    顯然,如果我們只聽那些勝利者的故事,那些破產的人就沒有相對的能力來告訴我們應該要多注意一點。

  • Another example: take a look at "In search of excellence", a book which sold over 3 million copies!

    另一個例子:看看《追求卓越》這本銷售量三百萬的書!

  • It analyses about 50 excellent companies and identifies 8 common traits that propelled them to success.

    裡面分析了五十個成功企業並提出八個將它們推往成功的共同特徵。

  • Yet, since then, out of the 35 companies which are publicly traded 20 are falling below the market average.

    但是在那之後,在三十五家成為上市公司中有二十家低於市場平均水準。

  • 5 even went bankrupt.

    有五家甚至破產。

  • Which bakes the question: were these companies actually excellent?

    於是又回到了這個問題:這些公司真的這麼優秀嗎?

  • Or perhaps: were some of these 50 companies just the lucky ones out of a pool of 50000?

    又或者是:會不會這五十家只是那五萬家公司中比較幸運的那一部分?

  • and if so, why should anyone listen to their advice?

    如果是這樣的話,那為什麼我們需要聽從他們的建議?

  • From here you can see what the problem is: if you only take advice of the so called successful people and ignore all the failures, you're going to be left with a heavily distorted view of reality this is known as 'survivorship bias' , furthermore, it doesn't just apply to financial advice.

    談到現在你能夠發現問題在哪裡了:如果你只接受所謂成功人士的建議並忽略那些經歷過失敗的人,你對現實只會有一種嚴重扭曲的觀點這就是所謂的「倖存者偏差」而且這種偏差不只出現在財務建議上。

  • Let's say you wanted some relationship advice.

    假設你想要一些婚姻關係上的建議。

  • Naturally, you'll search for some happily married couple of 40 years and ask: "what's your secret to marriage?"

    自然地,你會去找幾對維持四十年快樂婚姻的夫妻並問他們:「讓你有幸福婚姻的祕訣是什麼?」

  • They'll give sensible advice too, like: "focus on your partners positives rather than the negatives."

    他們也會給些明智的建議,像是:「比起缺點,請更專注在伴侶的優點上。」

  • Now, sure, this sounds like good advice.

    當然這聽起來不錯。

  • It might even work!

    甚至可能可行!

  • Yet, it's only when you factor in both the happily married and the bitterly divorced that you get a better picture of what's really going on.

    但只有你同時考慮造成幸福婚姻和痛苦離婚的因素時,才會更了解接下來可能會發生什麼事。

  • Take a look at this graph.

    看看這張圖表。

  • It follows the lives of about 2,500 German participants for 10 years.

    它追蹤了兩千五百位德國受試者十年年的生活。

  • As you can see, those who are happily married are just happier to begin with even before they met their husbands and wives.

    你可以發現,那些擁有幸福婚姻的人在遇見自己的另一半前就很快樂了。

  • They were already leading happier lives.

    他們本來就擁有幸福的人生。

  • On the other hand, those who ended up divorcing were naturally more depressed.

    相反地,那些離婚收場的人原本就是比較憂鬱的人。

  • Now, this isn't something people realize.

    現今人們並不知道這個事實。

  • Not many would say: "I'm happy with my marriage because I'm just happier about stuff in general."

    很少人會說:「我對我的婚姻很滿意,因為我對大部分的事物都感到樂觀。」

  • And yet, this seems like such an important factor.

    但這卻是個重要的因素。

  • It suggests we should focus on improving ourselves before we think of improving our relationships.

    在想改善感情關係前,我們應該先專注在讓自己變得更好。

  • So, here's the bottom line: when it comes to complex things in our life, like marriage and getting rich, no one really knows what it takes to become successful.

    所以,結論就是:當人生中出現了複雜的事情,例如婚姻或致富,其實沒有人真的知道怎麼做可以成功。

  • Therefore, when listening to the advice of successful people be skeptical and make sure you aren't getting fooled.

    因此,在聽取成功人士的建議時記得要抱持懷疑態度,確保自己不會被愚弄。

  • Instead, consider the failures and perhaps you'll learn more.

    你反而要多想想那些失敗的人,或許可以學到更多東西。

Have you seen these type of articles before?

你有看過這些文章嗎?

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A2 初級 中文 股市 婚姻 成功 建議 上漲 預測

成功人士的經驗談對我們沒有幫助?(Why you shouldn't trust successful people's advice)

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    Hsuan Yin Chen   發佈於 2019 年 04 月 01 日
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