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  • When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology,

    各位來參加TED的演講, 心中想的大都是科技議題,

  • the world changing, becoming more innovative.

    世界正在改變,變的更有創造力了。

  • You think about the driverless.

    各位可能會想到無人駕駛。

  • Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days,

    現在每個人都在討論 無人駕駛汽車,

  • and I love the concept of a driverless car,

    我也喜歡無人駕駛汽車的概念,

  • but when I go in one, you know,

    但是說實話,當我走進去時,

  • I want it really slow,

    我真的希望它開慢一點,

  • I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case.

    我希望在發生意外的時候, 我能親自操控方向盤和刹車。

  • I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus.

    我不知道在座的各位是怎麼想的, 至少我還沒有準備好登上無人駕駛巴士。

  • I am not ready for a driverless airplane.

    我也還沒有準備好 要乘坐無人駕駛的飛機。

  • How about a driverless world?

    那麼,一個無人領導的世界會是怎樣呢?

  • And I ask you that

    我會這樣問的原因,

  • because we are increasingly in one.

    是因為我們都正逐漸融為一體。

  • It's not supposed to be that way.

    本來事情不應該是這樣的。

  • We're number one,

    我們是全球第一的國家,

  • the United States is large and in charge.

    我們美國喊水能結凍。

  • Americanization and globalization for the last several generations

    對於近年來的幾代人而言,

  • have basically been the same thing.

    美國化和全球化基本上 談的都是同一件事,對吧?

  • Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization

    不論是WTO

  • or it's the IMF, the World Bank,

    亦或是IMF、世界銀行、

  • the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,

    布列敦森林的貨幣協定、

  • these were American institutions,

    它們都是美國的機構,

  • our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards.

    我們的價值評斷、朋友、 同盟、貨幣、標準等

  • That was the way the world worked.

    這就是這個世界運行的方式。

  • So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks,

    開玩笑說,如果你想知道 美國看起來是什麼樣的,

  • here it is.

    那麼這張圖就是了。

  • This is our view of how the world is run.

    這就是我們美國人 對於世界如何運轉的印象,

  • President Obama has got the red carpet,

    奧巴馬總統踩著紅地毯

  • he goes down Air Force One,

    走下空軍一號,

  • and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable.

    這看起來很美妙,讓人感覺很舒服。

  • Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week

    我不知道你們有多少人看過 上周總統的中國之行

  • and the G20.

    與G20峰會的報導,

  • Oh my God. Right?

    天啊,

  • This is how we landed

    在中國舉辦的全球峰會,

  • for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China.

    這麼重要的場合, 這就是我們總統著陸的方式?

  • The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives

    國家安全顧問站在柏油路面上

  • on the tarmac --

    直接開飆——

  • no red carpet,

    總統沒有紅地毯鋪路,

  • kind of left out the bottom of the plane

    就直接從飛機上下來,

  • along with all the media and everybody else.

    還和媒體還有其他人混在一起!

  • Later on in the G20,

    在稍後的G20會議中……

  • well, there's Obama.

    好吧,這是奧巴馬總統

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Hi, George.

    「你好,喬治 」

  • Hi, Norman.

    「你好,諾曼 」

  • They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right?

    他們看起好像馬上就要對幹了,是不是?

  • And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria.

    的確,他們花了90分鐘 討論敘利亞的問題。

  • That's what Putin wanted to talk about.

    這也是普京想要討論的,

  • He's increasingly calling the shots.

    他超想開戰的,

  • He's the one willing to do stuff there.

    他想成為歷史人物。

  • There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,

    實際上他們並不互相喜歡或信任,

  • but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.

    也不是我們美國喜歡對他指手畫腳。

  • How about when the whole 20 are getting together?

    那麼全部20國在一起的時候 又是什麼樣的?

  • Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,

    誠然,當所有領導聚在一起

  • then the Americans are pulling their weight.

    美國人就會仔細觀察他們的互動了。

  • Uh-oh.

    噢哦

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Xi Jinping seems fine.

    習近平看起來氣色不錯,

  • Angela Merkel has -- she always does --

    安格拉·默克爾還是老樣子,

  • that look, she always does that.

    她一直看起來就那樣。

  • But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do,

    但是普京正在跟土耳其總統 埃爾多安交頭接耳,

  • and Obama is like, what's going on over there?

    奧巴馬看起來就像是在想, 他們兩個是不是準備要亂搞了?

  • You see. And the problem is it's not a G20,

    你看,問題不在G20,

  • the problem is

    真正的問題是

  • it's a G-Zero world that we live in,

    我們生活在一個G0的世界中,

  • a world order where there is no single country or alliance

    一個沒有任何一個單獨的國家或聯盟

  • that can meet the challenges of global leadership.

    可以擔起領導全球重任的世界。

  • The G20 doesn't work,

    G20並沒有什麼實際用處,

  • the G7, all of our friends, that's history.

    由我們的盟友組成的G7 也成為歷史了。

  • So globalization is continuing.

    但全球化仍在不斷繼續,

  • Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders

    商品、服務、人員和資本 也在不斷跨境流動,

  • faster and faster than ever before,

    流動的越來越快,遠超從前,

  • but Americanization is not.

    但美國化並不是這樣。

  • So if I've convinced you of that,

    所以如果你也接受上述論點,

  • I want to do two things with the rest of this talk.

    那麼我在剩下的 演講時間中做兩件事。

  • I want to talk about the implications of that

    一是我想和各位談談

  • for the whole world.

    各地全球化的進展。

  • I'll go around it.

    我會圍繞這個主題討論。

  • And then I want to talk about

    然後我會再進一步討論

  • what we think right here

    身處在美國及紐約的我們是怎麼想的。

  • in the United States and in New York.

    為什麼?這又有什麼影響? 我們今天為什麼會卡在這裡?

  • So why? What are the implications. Why are we here?

    我們會卡在這裡,

  • Well, we're here

    是因為美國

  • because the United States,

    花費兩萬億美元去打 伊拉克和阿富汗的戰爭,

  • we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

    然後我們失敗了。

  • that were failed.

    我們再也不想做這樣的事情了,

  • We don't want to do that anymore.

    我們有大量的中產和工人階級國民,

  • We have large numbers of middle and working classes

    但他們並沒有感覺到承諾中的 全球化所帶來的好處。

  • that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization,

    尤其他們更不想再看到戰爭。

  • so they don't want to see it particularly.

    同時我們還在進行能源革命,

  • And we have an energy revolution

    這使我們不再像往常那樣 依賴OPEC和中東的石油。

  • where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to.

    讓我們能自給自足。

  • We produce all that right here in the United States.

    所以美國不想 再做全球安全的護航者。

  • So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security

    或者國際貿易的設計師。

  • or the architect of global trade.

    美國人甚至不想去當全球價值觀的宣導者。

  • The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values.

    好吧,你再去看歐洲——

  • Well, then you look to Europe,

    我們在大西洋對岸的,

  • and the most important alliance in the world

    最重要的盟友。

  • has been the transatlantic relationship.

    它自二戰以來正每況愈下,危機頻發:

  • But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II,

    英國脫歐,

  • all of the crises, the Brexit conversations,

    法俄衝突,

  • the hedging going on between the French and the Russians,

    還有德國-土耳其衝突和英中之間的不愉快。

  • or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.

    中國的確想更進一步的領導全球,

  • China does want to do more leadership.

    他們真的有在想, 但只想在經濟領域上。

  • They do, but only in the economic sphere,

    中國更加希望的是, 自己的價值觀、標準和貨幣,

  • and they want their own values, standards, currency,

    能夠與美國競爭。

  • in competition with that of the US.

    俄羅斯確實想更有領袖地位。

  • The Russians want to do more leadership.

    看看他們在烏克蘭

  • You see that in Ukraine,

    以及波羅的海諸國還有中東所做的。

  • in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,

    但那些都和美國無關,

  • but not with the Americans.

    他們想獨樹一幟,獨掌大權。

  • They want their own preferences and order.

    這就是為什麼我們卡在這裡。

  • That's why we are where we are.

    所以接下來世界會發生什麼?

  • So what happens going forward?

    我們先從簡單的開始討論,

  • Let's start easy,

    就從中東開始吧。

  • with the Middle East.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    你們知道的,我只是點撥一下,

  • You know, I left a little out,

    但你們會不約而同地想到中東的穩定問題。

  • but you get the general idea.

    你看,有三個原因,

  • Look, there are three reasons

    說明了中東過去 曾經穩定的原因,是不是?

  • why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right?

    一是他們當時願意,

  • One is because there was a willingness to provide

    讓美國及其盟友 提供一定程度的軍事安全保障。

  • some level of military security by the US and allies.

    第二,中東遍地黃金,

  • Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground

    因為石油曾相當昂貴。

  • because oil was expensive.

    第三點:

  • And number three

    不論中東的領導人是多麼差勁, 當地人口數量卻相對穩定。

  • was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent.

    他們不能、也不想,

  • They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will

    互相敵對。

  • to really rise up against.

    但,對於一個G0的世界,我可以說:

  • Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,

    這三個理由正逐漸失效。

  • all three of those things are increasingly not true,

    所以失敗的國家、恐怖主義、

  • and so failed states,

    難民還有其他事故開始出現。

  • terrorism, refugees and the rest.

    然而整個中東四分五裂了麼?

  • Does the entire Middle East fall apart?

    並不,庫爾德人做得更好一些, 伊拉克、以色列、伊朗也會逐漸好起來。

  • No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.

    但總體上說,中東依舊不是很好。

  • But generally speaking, it's not a good look.

    好,那普京這傢伙如何呢?

  • OK, how about this guy?

    他簡直一塌糊塗。

  • He's playing a poor hand very well.

    毫無疑問他好高騖遠。

  • There's no question he's hitting above his weight.

    但長期——我不是有意要這麼說

  • But long term -- I didn't mean that.

    ——從長期而言,

  • But long term, long term,

    如果你認為俄羅斯是被 美國和歐盟所挑倖,

  • if you think that the Russians

    讓北約組織擴軍到 他們的國界附近。

  • were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders

    當時我們說他們不會這樣做。

  • when we said they weren't going to,

    且有歐盟在蠶食他們,

  • and the EU encroaching them,

    只要等中國花數千億美元,

  • just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars

    投入到俄羅斯周邊 他們認為擁有影響力的國家,

  • in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in.

    中國就能從中獲益 而俄羅斯只能撿剩下的。

  • The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs.

    在這個G0的世界中 普京先生未來10年會非常難熬。

  • In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.

    這還是有點好的,對麼?

  • It's not all bad. Right?

    亞洲看起來更好一點,

  • Asia actually looks a lot better.

    那裡有真正的領導者,

  • There are real leaders across Asia,

    那邊有著相當的政治穩定,

  • they have a lot of political stability.

    而且保持了一段時間。

  • They're there for a while.

    印度的莫迪總理、

  • Mr. Modi in India,

    安倍晉三,可能要取得第三個任期的 日本自由民主黨黨魁、

  • Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in

    當然還有習近平—— 他正在鞏固自己的權力,

  • in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,

    他是自毛澤東以來最具影響力的,

  • of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power,

    中國領導人

  • the most powerful leader in China

    ——他們領導著三個最重要的亞洲經濟體。

  • since Mao.

    但是現在,亞洲也沒法獨善其身:

  • Those are the three most important economies in Asia.

    我們可以看到南海衝突頻發,

  • Now look, there are problems in Asia.

    可以看到北韓的金正日在幾天前

  • We see the sparring over the South China Sea.

    又一次測試了新核武器。

  • We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days,

    但是這些亞洲領導人認為,

  • tested yet another nuclear weapon.

    他們無需發揮領導力

  • But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need

    去排除外部勢力,

  • to wave the flag,

    他們坐視事態擴大。

  • to go xenophobic,

    在面對跨國政治和邊境衝突的時候,

  • to actually allow escalation

    他們著眼於長期經濟穩定與增長,

  • of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions.

    而這也正是他們正在做的。

  • They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth.

    轉到歐洲。

  • And that's what they're actually doing.

    歐洲看起來似乎被 現在的國際環境嚇到了,

  • Let's turn to Europe.

    所以那些發生在中東的事情,

  • Europe does look a little scared in this environment.

    毫不誇張地說, 已經波及到了歐洲邊境。

  • So much of what is happening in the Middle East

    你們可以看到欧洲人對英國脫歐 還有民粹主義的關注

  • is washing up quite literally onto European shores.

    已經遍及了歐洲全境。

  • You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism

    要我說,長期而言,

  • across all of the European states.

    在G0的世界中,

  • Let me tell you that over the long term,

    歐洲的擴張太快了。

  • in a G-Zero world,

    歐洲現在十分靠近俄羅斯和中東,

  • European expansion will be seen to have gone too far.

    如果這個世界真的變得 更加扁平化及美國化,

  • Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East,

    這不值一提。

  • and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized,

    但對於G0的世界來說,

  • that would be less of a problem,

    那些緊鄰俄羅斯和中東的國家,

  • but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia

    他們實際上與歐洲核心 有著不同的經濟量體、

  • and nearest the Middle East

    不同的社會穩定因素、

  • actually have different economic capabilities,

    以及不同的政治觀點與系統。

  • different social stability

    所以歐盟確實可以在 G7的幫助下進行擴張,

  • and different political preferences and systems than core Europe.

    但是對於G0,歐洲會重新縮小。

  • So Europe was able to truly expand

    圍繞著德法的歐洲核心國家,

  • under the G7,

    能依舊正常運行, 依舊穩定、富裕、互相補益。

  • but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller.

    但那些周邊國家,

  • Core Europe around Germany and France and others

    就像希臘、土耳其還有其他的一些,

  • will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated.

    可能就會很糟糕了。

  • But the periphery,

    拉丁美洲,民粹主義的樂園,

  • countries like Greece and Turkey and others,

    經濟被搞得差強人意。

  • will not look that good at all.

    幾十年間他們都對美國陽奉陰違,

  • Latin America, a lot of populism,

    但是現在,他們逐漸地靠攏回來了。

  • made the economies not go so well.

    我們可以看到阿根廷的變化、

  • They had been more opposed to the United States for decades.

    看到古巴的開放、

  • Increasingly, they're coming back.

    看到委內瑞拉的馬杜羅下臺、

  • We see that in Argentina.

    看到發生在巴西的彈劾、

  • We see it with the openness in Cuba.

    並最終看到一個新的合法總統當選。

  • We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls.

    唯一頑固不化的地方,

  • We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment

    是墨西哥,總統佩尼亞·尼托正失去民意。

  • and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there.

    在接下來的幾年中, 你將看到他們逐漸離了美國單幹。

  • The only place you see that is moving in another direction

    儘管美國大選 會對那裡會產生巨大的影響。

  • is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peña Nieto.

    (笑聲)

  • There you could actually see a slip away from the United States

    非洲,

  • over the coming years.

    很多人說接下來十年是非洲的十年。

  • The US election matters a lot on that one, too.

    在這個G0的世界中, 對少數非洲國家而言,

  • (Laughter)

    這無疑會是一個令人驚奇的時代。

  • Africa, right?

    那些「少數國家」施政良好、 同時城市化進程較快,

  • A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.

    還有大量富有智慧的國民, 那裡婦女真正地有活可幹,

  • In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time

    創業也蓬勃興起。

  • for a few African countries,

    但對於大多數非洲國家,

  • those governed well with a lot of urbanization,

    這無疑是場冒險:

  • a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce,

    他們要面對極端氣候環境、

  • entrepreneurship taking off.

    來自伊斯蘭教和基督教的激進主義、

  • But for most of the countries in Africa,

    乏善可陳的統治、

  • it's going to be a lot more dicey:

    無法禦敵於國門之外、 甚至大量強行吞併……

  • extreme climate conditions,

    那些國家可能從地圖上消失。

  • radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity,

    所以你將會看到巨大的隔閡逐漸產生,

  • very poor governance,

    它橫貫於非洲的勝利者與失敗者之間。

  • borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration.

    最後,讓我們回歸美國。

  • Those countries can fall off the map.

    我們怎麼看自己的國家的?

  • So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on

    這裡有大量對政治失望的人,

  • between the winners and the losers across Africa.

    當然我知道不會出現在這個TEDx會場裡。

  • Finally, back to the United States.

    但是他們遍佈美國,天啊!

  • What do I think about us?

    在15個月的競選長跑後 我們會變得失望,

  • Because there are a lot of upset people,

    我能理解這個心情。

  • not here at TEDx, I know,

    但是很多人失望地說: 「華盛頓變差了」

  • but in the United States, my God,

    「我們不相信當權者」 「我們痛恨媒體」

  • after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset.

    哎,像我這樣的全球主義者,

  • I understand that.

    都會把這些話掛在嘴邊。

  • But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken,

    注意!我認為我們必須認清,

  • we don't trust the establishment, we hate the media."

    我們與和我們一同野營的國家夥伴們,

  • Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.

    當一同被某頭危機巨熊追逐著的時候,

  • Look, I do think we have to recognize,

    我們不需要跑過那頭巨熊,