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  • So what if I could make for you

    如果我可以幫你做出一個訂製嬰兒,

  • a designer baby?

    那會發生甚麼事?

  • What if you as a parent-to-be

    要是身為父母的你,

  • and I as a scientist decided to go down that road together?

    與身為科學家的我 決定一起合作完成呢?

  • What if we didn't?

    要是我們沒這樣做呢?

  • What if we thought, "That's a bad idea,"

    如果我們認為「訂製寶寶不對」,

  • but many of our family, friends and coworkers

    但我們的家人、朋友、同仁

  • did make that decision?

    很多人卻做了那個決定, 那又會如何呢?

  • Let's fast-forward just 15 years from now.

    讓我們快進到 15 年之後,

  • Let's pretend it's the year 2030,

    假設現在是 2030 年,

  • and you're a parent.

    你已經為人父母,

  • You have your daughter, Marianne, next to you,

    坐在你旁邊的是你女兒,瑪麗安,

  • and in 2030, she is what we call a natural

    2030年,我們稱她為自然人

  • because she has no genetic modifications.

    因為她沒有被基因改造過,

  • And because you and your partner consciously made that decision,

    而因為你和你的另一半所做的決定,

  • many in your social circle, they kind of look down on you.

    使你在很多社交場合中,讓人有點瞧不起你。

  • They think you're, like, a Luddite or a technophobe.

    他們認為你是個反對新科技或排斥科技產品的人。

  • Marianne's best friend Jenna, who lives right next door,

    你女兒最好的朋友珍娜,就住在你家隔壁,

  • is a very different story.

    完全是另一回事。

  • She was born a genetically modified designer baby with numerous upgrades.

    她是一個基因改造寶寶,而且升級了很多功能。

  • Yeah. Upgrades.

    是的,升級。

  • And these enhancements were introduced

    而這些改造,是經由一種

  • using a new genetic modification technology

    全新的基因改造技術所完成,

  • that goes by the funny name CRISPR,

    它有一個好笑的名稱,叫做「CRISPR」,

  • you know, like something's crisp,

    有點像脆薯的感覺,

  • this is CRISPR.

    這是 CRISPR 。

  • The scientist that Jenna's parents hired to do this

    珍娜父母親聘請科學家來做這件事情

  • for several million dollars

    需要花他們數百萬美元,

  • introduced CRISPR into a whole panel of human embryos.

    因為他們要在一整盤的胚胎上使用 CRISPR 技術,

  • And then they used genetic testing,

    且之後還要進行基因檢測,

  • and they predicted that that little tiny embryo, Jenna's embryo,

    並確定篩選出來的小胚胎,珍娜的胚胎,

  • would be the best of the bunch.

    會是當中最棒的一個。

  • And now, Jenna is an actual, real person.

    現在,珍娜長大了,

  • She's sitting on the carpet in your living room

    她坐在你家客廳的地毯上,

  • playing with your daughter Marianne.

    跟你女兒瑪麗安一起玩。

  • And your families have known each other for years now,

    你們雙方家庭認識好幾年了,

  • and it's become very clear to you

    你們都很清楚,

  • that Jenna is extraordinary.

    珍娜相當優秀。

  • She's incredibly intelligent.

    她聰明絕頂。

  • If you're honest with yourself, she's smarter than you,

    如果你夠自覺的話,她的確比你聰明,

  • and she's five years old.

    而且她才五歲。

  • She's beautiful, tall, athletic,

    她長得很漂亮、身材高挑,又有運動細胞,

  • and the list goes on and on.

    還有一大堆說不完的優點。

  • And in fact, there's a whole new generation

    實際上,到時候整個世代

  • of these GM kids like Jenna.

    會像珍娜一樣,都是基改小孩。

  • And so far it looks like

    到時候,他們看起來

  • they're healthier than their parents' generation,

    似乎比他們父母那個世代的人更健康,

  • than your generation.

    比你這個世代的人更健康。

  • And they have lower health care costs.

    而且他們的醫療照顧成本也比較低,

  • They're immune to a host of health conditions,

    他們在健康條件方面,對疾病是免疫的,

  • including HIV/AIDS and genetic diseases.

    包括愛滋病及其它基因上的疾病。

  • It all sounds so great,

    聽起來相當完美,

  • but you can't help but have this sort of unsettling feeling,

    但你難免會有一種不安的感覺。

  • a gut feeling, that there's something just not quite right about Jenna,

    一種覺得珍娜好像不太對勁的直覺,

  • and you've had the same feeling about other GM kids that you've met.

    而且你對其他你遇到的基改小孩都有同樣的感受。

  • You were also reading in the newspaper earlier this week

    那個禮拜稍早,你讀到了一篇新聞,

  • that a study of these children who were born as designer babies

    一篇有關於基因改造小孩的研究,

  • indicates they may have some issues,

    研究指出他們可能有一些狀況了,

  • like increased aggressiveness and narcissism.

    像是越來越好鬥、自戀。

  • But more immediately on your mind

    但你腦袋立刻想到的是...

  • is some news that you just got from Jenna's family.

    你從珍娜家人那邊聽到的事情。

  • She's so smart,

    珍娜很聰明,

  • she's now going to be going to a special school,

    她準備上特殊學校,

  • a different school than your daughter Marianne,

    不同於你女兒的學校,

  • and this is kind of throwing your family into a disarray.

    這件事讓你的家人陷入一場混亂。

  • Marianne's been crying,

    瑪麗安一直哭,

  • and last night when you took her to bed to kiss her goodnight,

    昨晚妳跟女兒在床上道晚安時,

  • she said, "Daddy, will Jenna even be my friend anymore?"

    她問你: 「爸爸,珍娜不會再跟我做朋友了嗎?」

  • So now, as I've been telling you this imagined 2030 story,

    雖然,我現在說的是 2030 年想像出來的場景,

  • I have a feeling that I may have put some of you

    我在想,各位是不是覺得我所說的

  • into this sci-fi frame of reference. Right?

    像是一種科幻情節,對吧?

  • You think you're reading a sci-fi book.

    一種好像在讀科幻小說一樣的感覺。

  • Or maybe, like, in Halloween mode of thinking.

    或者,像是萬聖節前夕的場景。

  • But this is really a possible reality for us,

    但從現在起15年內,

  • just 15 years from now.

    以上是真的有可能發生的。

  • I'm a stem cell and genetics researcher

    我是一位幹細胞基因研究人員,

  • and I can see this new CRISPR technology

    我已經可以看到 CRISPR 這項新技術

  • and its potential impact.

    它潛在的引響力。

  • And we may find ourselves in that reality,

    而我們人類也許可以在那個實境當中找到自己,

  • and a lot will depend on what we decide to do today.

    而這取決於我們今天所做的決定。

  • And if you're still kind of thinking in sci-fi mode,

    如果你還在想,這有點科幻,

  • consider that the world of science had a huge shock earlier this year,

    思考一下今年稍早科學界發生的重大事件,

  • and the public largely doesn't even know about it.

    大部分的人都不知道這件事,

  • Researchers in China just a few months ago

    幾個月前,中國的研究人員,

  • reported the creation of genetically modified human embryos.

    發表了他們已經創造出 人類基改胚胎。

  • This was the first time in history.

    這是史上第一次。

  • And they did it using this new CRISPR technology.

    他們就是運用 CRISPR 這項技術。

  • It didn't work perfectly,

    雖然做得不怎麼完美,

  • but I still think they sort of cracked the door ajar

    但我在想,

  • on a Pandora's box here.

    他們已經掀開了潘朵拉盒的秘密了。

  • And I think some people are going to run with this technology

    我認為已經有人要用這項技術

  • and try to make designer babies.

    嘗試做出訂製嬰兒。

  • Now, before I go on, some of you may hold up your hands and say,

    在我繼續說明之前, 你們有些人可能會想舉手說,

  • "Stop, Paul, wait a minute.

    「停,保羅,等一下...

  • Wouldn't that be illegal?

    這不是不合法的嗎?

  • You can't just go off and create a designer baby."

    你不能不管法律,執意要做這件事吧?」

  • And in fact, to some extent, you're right.

    沒錯,在某種程度上,你是對的。

  • In some countries, you couldn't do that.

    有些國家,你確實不能做。

  • But in many other countries, including my country, the US,

    但有很多國家,包括我的國家,美國,

  • there's actually no law on this, so in theory, you could do it.

    實際上根本都還沒有相關的法律規範,所以理論上,你可以做。

  • And there was another development this year that resonates in this area,

    今年,在這個領域有另外一個重要的事件發生,

  • and that happened not so far from here over in the UK.

    這件事就發生在離這兒不遠的英國。

  • And the UK traditionally has been the strictest country

    英國傳統上是個非常嚴謹的國家,

  • when it comes to human genetic modification.

    一旦涉及到有關人類的基改問題,

  • It was illegal there,

    在英國,是不合法的,

  • but just a few months ago,

    但就在幾個月前,

  • they carved out an exception to that rule.

    他們在這條規則上增訂了一條豁免條款。

  • They passed a new law

    他們通過了一條新的法律,

  • allowing the creation of genetically modified humans

    有條件允許製造基改人類,

  • with the noble goal of trying to prevent a rare kind of genetic disease.

    只要你有預防類似罕見基因疾病這樣的崇高目的。

  • But still I think in combination these events are pushing us

    但我依然認為,這些綜合事件,

  • further towards an acceptance

    目的都是要強迫我們接受

  • of human genetic modification.

    人類的基因改造。

  • So I've been talking about this CRISPR technology.

    我一直在談 CRISPR 技術。

  • What actually is CRISPR?

    那 CRISPR 到底是甚麼?

  • So if you think about the GMOs that we're all more familiar with,

    如果你想像一下我們都孰悉的基改生物,

  • like GMO tomatoes and wheat

    像是基改的番茄、小麥,

  • and things like that,

    等等類似的東西,

  • this technology is similar to the technologies

    這項技術的原理

  • that were used to make those,

    就跟我們製造基改食物的技術類似,

  • but it's dramatically better,

    但它表現得更好,

  • cheaper and faster.

    更便宜、更快速。

  • So what is it?

    那它的原理是甚麼?

  • It's actually like a genetic Swiss army knife.

    它有點像是瑞士基因軍用刀。

  • We can pretend this is a Swiss army knife

    我們假裝它就是瑞士軍用刀,

  • with different tools in it,

    裡面有各種不同的工具,

  • and one of the tools is kind of like a magnifying glass

    其中一個工具像是放大鏡,

  • or a GPS for our DNA,

    或是說我們 DNA 的導航器,

  • so it can home in on a certain spot.

    它可以導引到某個特定的 DNA 位置片段。

  • And the next tool is like scissors

    下一個工具像是一把剪刀,

  • that can cut the DNA right in that spot.

    它可以準確地把該位置的 DNA 片段剪下來。

  • And finally we have a pen

    最後,我們會有一隻筆,

  • where we can literally rewrite the genetic code in that location.

    我們完全可以在截斷點處重新編寫基因碼。

  • It's really that simple.

    真的就這麼簡單。

  • And this technology, which came on the scene just three years ago,

    這項科技,才剛誕生三年,

  • has taken science by storm.

    但已經造成科學界的轟動。

  • It's evolving so fast, and it's so freaking exciting to scientists,

    它演化地相當快,科學家們都相當興奮,

  • and I admit I'm fascinated by it and we use it in my own lab,

    我承認我對這項技術也很著迷,我們也會在自己的實驗室裡使用它,

  • that I think someone is going to go that extra step

    所以我認為已經有人要跨出下一步了,

  • and continue the GM human embryo work

    並開始進行人類胚胎的基因改造工程了,

  • and maybe make designer babies.

    且很有可能會製造出訂製嬰兒。

  • This is so ubiquitous now.

    類似的現象到處都是,

  • It just came on the scene three years ago.

    而這只不過才三年的時間,

  • Thousands of labs literally have this in hand today,

    已經有好幾千個實驗室掌握了這項技術,

  • and they're doing important research.

    他們已經開始進行重要的研究。

  • Most of them are not interested in designer babies.

    他們大部分的人對訂製嬰兒並不感到興趣。

  • They're studying human disease

    他們研究人類的疾病,

  • and other important elements of science.

    以及其它重要的科學議題。

  • So there's a lot of good research going on with CRISPR.

    所以,已經有很多、很棒的有關 CRISPR 技術方面的應用。

  • And the fact that we can now do genetic modifications

    實際上,我們現在已經可以把

  • that used to take years and cost millions of dollars

    過去要花好幾年、好幾百萬的基改工程,

  • in a few weeks for a couple thousand bucks,

    減少到只要花幾個禮拜、幾千美金就能辦到,

  • to me as a scientist that's fantastic,

    對我這樣的科學家而言, 這真的太神奇了,

  • but again, at the same time,

    但,與此同時,

  • it opens the door to people going too far.

    這項技術也會讓人走火入魔。

  • And I think for some people

    我認為有些人,

  • the focus is not going to be so much on science.

    並不會把焦點放在科學研究上,

  • That's not what's going to be driving them.

    那些不是驅動他們的原因。

  • It's going to be ideology or the chase for a profit.

    驅使他們的會是意識形態或者想賺大錢。

  • And they're going to go for designer babies.

    他們只對訂製嬰兒感興趣。

  • So why should we be concerned about this?

    那麼,我們為什麼要在意這件事情?

  • We know from Darwin, if we go back two centuries,

    回到兩個世紀前,從達爾文年代開始,

  • that evolution and genetics profoundly have impacted humanity,

    我們就知道演化及基因學深深地引響著人類,

  • who we are today.

    並造就出我們現在的世界。

  • And some think there's like a social Darwinism at work in our world,

    有些人認為,我們的世界似乎是由社會達爾文主義運作,

  • and maybe even a eugenics as well.

    甚至也許有優生學主義在影響著這個世界。

  • Imagine those trends, those forces,

    想像一下這些趨勢、這股勢力

  • with a booster rocket of this CRISPR technology

    加上了 CRISPR 這個

  • that is so powerful and so ubiquitous.

    無所不在、強大的技術會變成怎樣。

  • And in fact, we can just go back one century to the last century

    實際上,我們只要回到上個世紀,

  • to see the power that eugenics can have.

    就能看到優生學帶來了甚麼影響。

  • So my father, Peter Knoepfler,

    我的父親,彼得納佛勒,

  • was actually born right here in Vienna.

    就出生在維也納。

  • He was Viennese, and he was born here in 1929.

    他是維也納人,1929年在這出生的。

  • And when my grandparents had little baby Peter,

    當我的爺爺有了我爸爸小彼得,

  • the world was very different. Right?

    世界又變了樣了,對吧?

  • It was a different Vienna.

    維也納變不一樣了。

  • The United States was different.

    美國也變不一樣了。

  • The world was different.

    世界變不一樣了。

  • There was a eugenics rising,

    當時優生學正在興起,

  • and my grandparents realized,

    我想我爺爺

  • pretty quickly I think,

    應該很快就明白,

  • that they were on the wrong side of the eugenics equation.

    在優生學方面,他們選錯邊站了。

  • And so despite this being their home

    所以除了他們的家人,

  • and their whole extended family's home,

    還有整個親戚家族,

  • and this area being their family's home for generations,

    都被優生學主義影響了好幾世代,

  • they decided because of eugenics

    因為優生學,

  • that they had to leave.

    他們必須選擇離開家鄉。

  • And they survived, but they were heartbroken,

    他們存活下來了,但他們心也碎了,

  • and I'm not sure my dad ever really got over leaving Vienna.

    我不確定我爸是不是真的想離開維也納。

  • He left when he was just eight years old

    1938年,

  • in 1938.

    他當時才 8 歲。

  • So today, I see a new eugenics

    今日,我看到一個新的優生學

  • kind of bubbling to the surface.

    正浮出檯面。

  • It's supposed to be a kinder, gentler, positive eugenics,

    它必須是個仁慈、溫和正面的優生學,

  • different than all that past stuff.

    一個不同於以往的優生學。

  • But I think even though it's focused on trying to improve people,

    但我認為即使我們把重點擺在改進人類,

  • it could have negative consequences,

    很可能也會造成負面的結果,

  • and it really worries me

    我真的很擔心,

  • that some of the top proponents of this new eugenics,

    有一些支持新優生學主義的頂尖人士認為,

  • they think CRISPR is the ticket to make it happen.

    CRISPR 技術就是他們訂製嬰兒的入門票。

  • So I have to admit, you know,

    所以,我必須承認,各位知道,

  • eugenics, we talk about making better people.

    我們談的優生學只是要讓人變好。

  • It's a tough question.

    這是個很難回答的問題,

  • What is better when we're talking about a human being?

    一提到人類,哪些才是對人類比較好的?

  • But I admit I think maybe a lot of us

    我承認,我們大部分的人

  • could agree that human beings,

    應該都會同意

  • maybe we could use a little betterment.

    我們可以做一些小改善。

  • Look at our politicians

    看一下我們的政治人物,

  • here, you know, back in the US

    這邊的、美國的—

  • God forbid we go there right now.

    上帝目前禁止我們這樣做。

  • Maybe even if we just look in the mirror,

    或許如果我們面對著鏡子裡的自己,

  • there might be ways we think we could be better.

    我們都會希望有可以讓自己更好看一點的方法。

  • I might wish, honestly, that I had more hair here, instead of baldness.

    我可能會希望,老實說,我會希望這邊頭髮多點,不要禿頭。

  • Some people might wish they were taller,

    有些人會希望可以再高一些,

  • have a different weight, a different face.

    有個適當的體重、不同的臉蛋。

  • If we could do those things, we could make those things happen,

    如果我們要做這些事, 我們就一定能辦到,

  • or we could make them happen in our children,

    或者讓我們的孩子擁有這些優點,

  • it would be very seductive.

    這樣真的會很吸引人。

  • And yet coming with it would be these risks.

    但這也伴隨了風險。

  • I talked about eugenics,

    我談論的優生學,

  • but there would be risks to individuals as well.

    對個人而言可能也會造成風險。

  • So if we forget about enhancing people

    先不談改進人類的議題,

  • and we just try to make them healthier using genetic modification,

    就只是嘗試著用基因改造來讓人類更健康這件事,

  • this technology is so new

    這項技術這麼的新、

  • and so powerful,

    這麼的強而有力,

  • that by accident we could make them sicker.

    一旦發生意外,我們可能會更容易生病。

  • That easily could happen.

    這是很有可能會發生的。

  • And there's another risk,

    還有另外一個風險,

  • and that is that all of the legitimate, important genetic modification research

    就是所有合法、重要的基改研究

  • going on just in the lab

    只能在實驗室進行—

  • again, no interest in designer babies

    我再強調一次,他們對訂製嬰兒沒興趣—

  • a few people going the designer baby route,

    少數人鑽進訂製嬰兒這條路,

  • things go badly,

    只會讓事情變糟,

  • that entire field could be damaged.

    整個產業可能會被摧毀掉。

  • I also think it's not that unlikely

    我也認為

  • that governments might start taking an interest in genetic modification.

    政府不太可能不對基因改造有興趣。

  • So for example our imagined GM Jenna child

    比如,我們想像的基改小孩珍娜,

  • who is healthier,

    她是比較健康的,