a designer baby?

那會發生甚麼事？

What if you as a parent-to-be

要是身為父母的你，

and I as a scientist decided to go down that road together?

與身為科學家的我 決定一起合作完成呢？

What if we didn't?

要是我們沒這樣做呢？

What if we thought, "That's a bad idea,"

如果我們認為「訂製寶寶不對」，

but many of our family, friends and coworkers

但我們的家人、朋友、同仁

did make that decision?

很多人卻做了那個決定， 那又會如何呢？

Let's fast-forward just 15 years from now.

讓我們快進到 15 年之後，

Let's pretend it's the year 2030,

假設現在是 2030 年，

and you're a parent.

你已經為人父母，

You have your daughter, Marianne, next to you,

坐在你旁邊的是你女兒，瑪麗安，

and in 2030, she is what we call a natural

2030年，我們稱她為自然人

because she has no genetic modifications.

因為她沒有被基因改造過，

And because you and your partner consciously made that decision,

而因為你和你的另一半所做的決定，

many in your social circle, they kind of look down on you.

使你在很多社交場合中，讓人有點瞧不起你。

They think you're, like, a Luddite or a technophobe.

他們認為你是個反對新科技或排斥科技產品的人。

Marianne's best friend Jenna, who lives right next door,

你女兒最好的朋友珍娜，就住在你家隔壁，

is a very different story.

完全是另一回事。

She was born a genetically modified designer baby with numerous upgrades.

她是一個基因改造寶寶，而且升級了很多功能。

Yeah. Upgrades.

是的，升級。

And these enhancements were introduced

而這些改造，是經由一種

using a new genetic modification technology

全新的基因改造技術所完成，

that goes by the funny name CRISPR,

它有一個好笑的名稱，叫做「CRISPR」，

you know, like something's crisp,

有點像脆薯的感覺，

this is CRISPR.

這是 CRISPR 。

The scientist that Jenna's parents hired to do this

珍娜父母親聘請科學家來做這件事情

for several million dollars

需要花他們數百萬美元，

introduced CRISPR into a whole panel of human embryos.

因為他們要在一整盤的胚胎上使用 CRISPR 技術，

And then they used genetic testing,

且之後還要進行基因檢測，

and they predicted that that little tiny embryo, Jenna's embryo,

並確定篩選出來的小胚胎，珍娜的胚胎，

would be the best of the bunch.

會是當中最棒的一個。

And now, Jenna is an actual, real person.

現在，珍娜長大了，

She's sitting on the carpet in your living room

她坐在你家客廳的地毯上，

playing with your daughter Marianne.

跟你女兒瑪麗安一起玩。

And your families have known each other for years now,

你們雙方家庭認識好幾年了，

and it's become very clear to you

你們都很清楚，

that Jenna is extraordinary.

珍娜相當優秀。

She's incredibly intelligent.

她聰明絕頂。

If you're honest with yourself, she's smarter than you,

如果你夠自覺的話，她的確比你聰明，

and she's five years old.

而且她才五歲。

She's beautiful, tall, athletic,

她長得很漂亮、身材高挑，又有運動細胞，

and the list goes on and on.

還有一大堆說不完的優點。

And in fact, there's a whole new generation

實際上，到時候整個世代

of these GM kids like Jenna.

會像珍娜一樣，都是基改小孩。

And so far it looks like

到時候，他們看起來

they're healthier than their parents' generation,

似乎比他們父母那個世代的人更健康，

than your generation.

比你這個世代的人更健康。

And they have lower health care costs.

而且他們的醫療照顧成本也比較低，

They're immune to a host of health conditions,

他們在健康條件方面，對疾病是免疫的，

including HIV/AIDS and genetic diseases.

包括愛滋病及其它基因上的疾病。

It all sounds so great,

聽起來相當完美，

but you can't help but have this sort of unsettling feeling,

但你難免會有一種不安的感覺。

a gut feeling, that there's something just not quite right about Jenna,

一種覺得珍娜好像不太對勁的直覺，

and you've had the same feeling about other GM kids that you've met.

而且你對其他你遇到的基改小孩都有同樣的感受。

You were also reading in the newspaper earlier this week

那個禮拜稍早，你讀到了一篇新聞，

that a study of these children who were born as designer babies

一篇有關於基因改造小孩的研究，

indicates they may have some issues,

研究指出他們可能有一些狀況了，

like increased aggressiveness and narcissism.

像是越來越好鬥、自戀。

But more immediately on your mind

但你腦袋立刻想到的是...

is some news that you just got from Jenna's family.

你從珍娜家人那邊聽到的事情。

She's so smart,

珍娜很聰明，

she's now going to be going to a special school,

她準備上特殊學校，

a different school than your daughter Marianne,

不同於你女兒的學校，

and this is kind of throwing your family into a disarray.

這件事讓你的家人陷入一場混亂。

Marianne's been crying,

瑪麗安一直哭，

and last night when you took her to bed to kiss her goodnight,

昨晚妳跟女兒在床上道晚安時，

she said, "Daddy, will Jenna even be my friend anymore?"

她問你： 「爸爸，珍娜不會再跟我做朋友了嗎？」

So now, as I've been telling you this imagined 2030 story,

雖然，我現在說的是 2030 年想像出來的場景，

I have a feeling that I may have put some of you

我在想，各位是不是覺得我所說的

into this sci-fi frame of reference. Right?

像是一種科幻情節，對吧？

You think you're reading a sci-fi book.

一種好像在讀科幻小說一樣的感覺。

Or maybe, like, in Halloween mode of thinking.

或者，像是萬聖節前夕的場景。

But this is really a possible reality for us,

但從現在起15年內，

just 15 years from now.

以上是真的有可能發生的。

I'm a stem cell and genetics researcher

我是一位幹細胞基因研究人員，

and I can see this new CRISPR technology

我已經可以看到 CRISPR 這項新技術

and its potential impact.

它潛在的引響力。

And we may find ourselves in that reality,

而我們人類也許可以在那個實境當中找到自己，

and a lot will depend on what we decide to do today.

而這取決於我們今天所做的決定。

And if you're still kind of thinking in sci-fi mode,

如果你還在想，這有點科幻，

consider that the world of science had a huge shock earlier this year,

思考一下今年稍早科學界發生的重大事件，

and the public largely doesn't even know about it.

大部分的人都不知道這件事，

Researchers in China just a few months ago

幾個月前，中國的研究人員，

reported the creation of genetically modified human embryos.

發表了他們已經創造出 人類基改胚胎。

This was the first time in history.

這是史上第一次。

And they did it using this new CRISPR technology.

他們就是運用 CRISPR 這項技術。

It didn't work perfectly,

雖然做得不怎麼完美，

but I still think they sort of cracked the door ajar

但我在想，

on a Pandora's box here.

他們已經掀開了潘朵拉盒的秘密了。

And I think some people are going to run with this technology

我認為已經有人要用這項技術

and try to make designer babies.

嘗試做出訂製嬰兒。

Now, before I go on, some of you may hold up your hands and say,

在我繼續說明之前， 你們有些人可能會想舉手說，

"Stop, Paul, wait a minute.

「停，保羅，等一下...

Wouldn't that be illegal?

這不是不合法的嗎？

You can't just go off and create a designer baby."

你不能不管法律，執意要做這件事吧？」

And in fact, to some extent, you're right.

沒錯，在某種程度上，你是對的。

In some countries, you couldn't do that.

有些國家，你確實不能做。

But in many other countries, including my country, the US,

但有很多國家，包括我的國家，美國，

there's actually no law on this, so in theory, you could do it.

實際上根本都還沒有相關的法律規範，所以理論上，你可以做。

And there was another development this year that resonates in this area,

今年，在這個領域有另外一個重要的事件發生，

and that happened not so far from here over in the UK.

這件事就發生在離這兒不遠的英國。

And the UK traditionally has been the strictest country

英國傳統上是個非常嚴謹的國家，

when it comes to human genetic modification.

一旦涉及到有關人類的基改問題，

It was illegal there,

在英國，是不合法的，

but just a few months ago,

但就在幾個月前，

they carved out an exception to that rule.

他們在這條規則上增訂了一條豁免條款。

They passed a new law

他們通過了一條新的法律，

allowing the creation of genetically modified humans

有條件允許製造基改人類，

with the noble goal of trying to prevent a rare kind of genetic disease.

只要你有預防類似罕見基因疾病這樣的崇高目的。

But still I think in combination these events are pushing us

但我依然認為，這些綜合事件，

further towards an acceptance

目的都是要強迫我們接受

of human genetic modification.

人類的基因改造。

So I've been talking about this CRISPR technology.

我一直在談 CRISPR 技術。

What actually is CRISPR?

那 CRISPR 到底是甚麼？

So if you think about the GMOs that we're all more familiar with,

如果你想像一下我們都孰悉的基改生物，

like GMO tomatoes and wheat

像是基改的番茄、小麥，

and things like that,

等等類似的東西，

this technology is similar to the technologies

這項技術的原理

that were used to make those,

就跟我們製造基改食物的技術類似，

but it's dramatically better,

但它表現得更好，

cheaper and faster.

更便宜、更快速。

So what is it?

那它的原理是甚麼？

It's actually like a genetic Swiss army knife.

它有點像是瑞士基因軍用刀。

We can pretend this is a Swiss army knife

我們假裝它就是瑞士軍用刀，

with different tools in it,

裡面有各種不同的工具，

and one of the tools is kind of like a magnifying glass

其中一個工具像是放大鏡，

or a GPS for our DNA,

或是說我們 DNA 的導航器，

so it can home in on a certain spot.

它可以導引到某個特定的 DNA 位置片段。

And the next tool is like scissors

下一個工具像是一把剪刀，

that can cut the DNA right in that spot.

它可以準確地把該位置的 DNA 片段剪下來。

And finally we have a pen

最後，我們會有一隻筆，

where we can literally rewrite the genetic code in that location.

我們完全可以在截斷點處重新編寫基因碼。

It's really that simple.

真的就這麼簡單。

And this technology, which came on the scene just three years ago,

這項科技，才剛誕生三年，

has taken science by storm.

但已經造成科學界的轟動。

It's evolving so fast, and it's so freaking exciting to scientists,

它演化地相當快，科學家們都相當興奮，

and I admit I'm fascinated by it and we use it in my own lab,

我承認我對這項技術也很著迷，我們也會在自己的實驗室裡使用它，

that I think someone is going to go that extra step

所以我認為已經有人要跨出下一步了，

and continue the GM human embryo work

並開始進行人類胚胎的基因改造工程了，

and maybe make designer babies.

且很有可能會製造出訂製嬰兒。

This is so ubiquitous now.

類似的現象到處都是，

It just came on the scene three years ago.

而這只不過才三年的時間，

Thousands of labs literally have this in hand today,

已經有好幾千個實驗室掌握了這項技術，

and they're doing important research.

他們已經開始進行重要的研究。

Most of them are not interested in designer babies.

他們大部分的人對訂製嬰兒並不感到興趣。

They're studying human disease

他們研究人類的疾病，

and other important elements of science.

以及其它重要的科學議題。

So there's a lot of good research going on with CRISPR.

所以，已經有很多、很棒的有關 CRISPR 技術方面的應用。

And the fact that we can now do genetic modifications

實際上，我們現在已經可以把

that used to take years and cost millions of dollars

過去要花好幾年、好幾百萬的基改工程，

in a few weeks for a couple thousand bucks,

減少到只要花幾個禮拜、幾千美金就能辦到，

to me as a scientist that's fantastic,

對我這樣的科學家而言， 這真的太神奇了，

but again, at the same time,

但，與此同時，

it opens the door to people going too far.

這項技術也會讓人走火入魔。

And I think for some people

我認為有些人，

the focus is not going to be so much on science.

並不會把焦點放在科學研究上，

That's not what's going to be driving them.

那些不是驅動他們的原因。

It's going to be ideology or the chase for a profit.

驅使他們的會是意識形態或者想賺大錢。

And they're going to go for designer babies.

他們只對訂製嬰兒感興趣。

So why should we be concerned about this?

那麼，我們為什麼要在意這件事情？

We know from Darwin, if we go back two centuries,

回到兩個世紀前，從達爾文年代開始，

that evolution and genetics profoundly have impacted humanity,

我們就知道演化及基因學深深地引響著人類，

who we are today.

並造就出我們現在的世界。

And some think there's like a social Darwinism at work in our world,

有些人認為，我們的世界似乎是由社會達爾文主義運作，

and maybe even a eugenics as well.

甚至也許有優生學主義在影響著這個世界。

Imagine those trends, those forces,

想像一下這些趨勢、這股勢力

with a booster rocket of this CRISPR technology

加上了 CRISPR 這個

that is so powerful and so ubiquitous.

無所不在、強大的技術會變成怎樣。

And in fact, we can just go back one century to the last century

實際上，我們只要回到上個世紀，

to see the power that eugenics can have.

就能看到優生學帶來了甚麼影響。

So my father, Peter Knoepfler,

我的父親，彼得納佛勒，

was actually born right here in Vienna.

就出生在維也納。

He was Viennese, and he was born here in 1929.

他是維也納人，1929年在這出生的。

And when my grandparents had little baby Peter,

當我的爺爺有了我爸爸小彼得，

the world was very different. Right?

世界又變了樣了，對吧？

It was a different Vienna.

維也納變不一樣了。

The United States was different.

美國也變不一樣了。

The world was different.

世界變不一樣了。

There was a eugenics rising,

當時優生學正在興起，

and my grandparents realized,

我想我爺爺

pretty quickly I think,

應該很快就明白，

that they were on the wrong side of the eugenics equation.

在優生學方面，他們選錯邊站了。

And so despite this being their home

所以除了他們的家人，

and their whole extended family's home,

還有整個親戚家族，

and this area being their family's home for generations,

都被優生學主義影響了好幾世代，

they decided because of eugenics

因為優生學，

that they had to leave.

他們必須選擇離開家鄉。

And they survived, but they were heartbroken,

他們存活下來了，但他們心也碎了，

and I'm not sure my dad ever really got over leaving Vienna.

我不確定我爸是不是真的想離開維也納。

He left when he was just eight years old

1938年，

in 1938.

他當時才 8 歲。

So today, I see a new eugenics

今日，我看到一個新的優生學

kind of bubbling to the surface.

正浮出檯面。

It's supposed to be a kinder, gentler, positive eugenics,

它必須是個仁慈、溫和正面的優生學，

different than all that past stuff.

一個不同於以往的優生學。

But I think even though it's focused on trying to improve people,

但我認為即使我們把重點擺在改進人類，

it could have negative consequences,

很可能也會造成負面的結果，

and it really worries me

我真的很擔心，

that some of the top proponents of this new eugenics,

有一些支持新優生學主義的頂尖人士認為，

they think CRISPR is the ticket to make it happen.

CRISPR 技術就是他們訂製嬰兒的入門票。

So I have to admit, you know,

所以，我必須承認，各位知道，

eugenics, we talk about making better people.

我們談的優生學只是要讓人變好。

It's a tough question.

這是個很難回答的問題，

What is better when we're talking about a human being?

一提到人類，哪些才是對人類比較好的？

But I admit I think maybe a lot of us

我承認，我們大部分的人

could agree that human beings,

應該都會同意

maybe we could use a little betterment.

我們可以做一些小改善。

Look at our politicians

看一下我們的政治人物，

here, you know, back in the US –

這邊的、美國的—

God forbid we go there right now.

上帝目前禁止我們這樣做。

Maybe even if we just look in the mirror,

或許如果我們面對著鏡子裡的自己，

there might be ways we think we could be better.

我們都會希望有可以讓自己更好看一點的方法。

I might wish, honestly, that I had more hair here, instead of baldness.

我可能會希望，老實說，我會希望這邊頭髮多點，不要禿頭。

Some people might wish they were taller,

有些人會希望可以再高一些，

have a different weight, a different face.

有個適當的體重、不同的臉蛋。

If we could do those things, we could make those things happen,

如果我們要做這些事， 我們就一定能辦到，

or we could make them happen in our children,

或者讓我們的孩子擁有這些優點，

it would be very seductive.

這樣真的會很吸引人。

And yet coming with it would be these risks.

但這也伴隨了風險。

I talked about eugenics,

我談論的優生學，

but there would be risks to individuals as well.

對個人而言可能也會造成風險。

So if we forget about enhancing people

先不談改進人類的議題，

and we just try to make them healthier using genetic modification,

就只是嘗試著用基因改造來讓人類更健康這件事，

this technology is so new

這項技術這麼的新、

and so powerful,

這麼的強而有力，

that by accident we could make them sicker.

一旦發生意外，我們可能會更容易生病。

That easily could happen.

這是很有可能會發生的。

And there's another risk,

還有另外一個風險，

and that is that all of the legitimate, important genetic modification research

就是所有合法、重要的基改研究

going on just in the lab –

只能在實驗室進行—

again, no interest in designer babies –

我再強調一次，他們對訂製嬰兒沒興趣—

a few people going the designer baby route,

少數人鑽進訂製嬰兒這條路，

things go badly,

只會讓事情變糟，

that entire field could be damaged.

整個產業可能會被摧毀掉。

I also think it's not that unlikely

我也認為

that governments might start taking an interest in genetic modification.

政府不太可能不對基因改造有興趣。

So for example our imagined GM Jenna child

比如，我們想像的基改小孩珍娜，

who is healthier,

她是比較健康的，