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  • Let me ask you all a question.

    讓我來問你們所有人壹個問題.

  • How much weapons-grade nuclear material do you think it would take

    你們覺得用多少核武器原材料才能將

  • to level a city the size of San Francisco?

    舊金山那麽大的城市摧毀掉?

  • How many of you think it would be an amount

    你們有多少人覺得它的量

  • about the size of this suitcase?

    大約是壹個手提箱那麽大?

  • OK. And how about this minibus?

    好的. 小巴士那麽大怎麽樣?

  • All right.

    好吧.

  • Well actually, under the right circumstances,

    其實,在合適的情況下,

  • an amount of highly enriched uranium about the size of your morning latte

    壹杯早晨喝的拿鐵的濃縮鈾量

  • would be enough to kill 100,000 people

    就足夠殺死10萬人

  • instantly.

    在壹瞬間.

  • Hundreds of thousands of others would become horribly ill,

    幾十萬人會變發生恐怖病變,

  • and parts of the city would be uninhabitable for years,

    而且城市的很多部分在許多年裏都會寸草不生,

  • if not for decades.

    要不就是幾十年.

  • But you can forget that nuclear latte,

    但是你可以忘記那杯核拿鐵,

  • because today's nuclear weapons are hundreds of times more powerful

    因為如今的核武器的威力比以前的強

  • even than those we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    甚至比廣島和長崎發射的核武器強了幾百倍.

  • And even a limited nuclear war involving, say, tens of nuclear weapons,

    即使在壹個限制核武器的戰爭中, 說, 幾十枚核導彈,

  • could lead to the end of all life on the planet.

    就可以消滅地球上的所有生物.

  • So it's really important that you know

    所以這件事很重要你要知道

  • that right now we have over 15,000 nuclear weapons

    如今我們已經有超過15000枚核武器

  • in the hands of nine nations.

    被9個國家所掌控.

  • And if you live in a city or near a military facility,

    如果你住在壹個城市或者在軍事設施附近,

  • one is likely pointed right at you.

    有壹枚核彈很可能正瞄準著你.

  • In fact, if you live in any of the rural areas

    事實上, 如果你們生活在任何偏遠地區

  • where nuclear weapons are stored globally,

    核武器被儲存在世界各地,

  • one is likely pointed at you.

    有壹枚很可能正瞄準著你.

  • About 1,800 of these weapons are on high alert,

    有大約1800枚隨時待命的核彈,

  • which means they can be launched within 15 minutes

    也就是說在15分鐘內它們就可以發射

  • of a presidential command.

    在某個總統的指令下.

  • So I know this is a bummer of an issue,

    我明白這個問題很煩人,

  • and maybe you have that -- what was it? -- psychic fatigue

    你也可能有那個什麽來著?--心理疲勞

  • that we heard about a little bit earlier.

    關於它我們之前有聽說過壹點.

  • So I'm going to switch gears for just a second,

    所以我將要轉移話題壹會兒,

  • and I'm going to talk about my imaginary friend,

    我所要說的是關於我想象出來的朋友,

  • who I like to think of as Jasmine,

    我把她想作賈絲明

  • just for a moment.

    只是壹小會兒.

  • Jasmine, at the age of 25,

    賈絲明, 在她25歲的時候

  • is part of a generation that is more politically and socially engaged

    他是那種活躍於政治和社交那壹代人的壹员

  • than anything we've seen in 50 years.

    比我們50年中所見到的都要活躍

  • She and her friends think of themselves

    她和她的朋友把自己比作

  • as change agents and leaders and activists.

    改變的代理人,領袖和積極分子.

  • I think of them as Generation Possible.

    我認為他們是可能的壹代人.

  • They regularly protest about the issues they care about,

    他們定期抗議那些他們關心的問題,

  • but nuclear weapons are not one of them, which makes sense,

    但是核武器不是問題中的壹個這就很說得通了,

  • because Jasmine was born in 1991, at the end of the Cold War.

    因為賈思明出生於1991年, 是冷戰結束的那年.

  • So she didn't grow up hearing a lot about nuclear weapons.

    所以她在成長過程中從來沒有聽過核武器.

  • She never had to duck and cover under her desk at school.

    她從來沒有在學校的桌子底下進行躲避和遮蓋.

  • For Jasmine, a fallout shelter is an app in the Android store.

    對於賈思明, 余波庇護所是壹個安卓商城裏的軟件.

  • Nuclear weapons help win games.

    核武器幫助她贏得遊戲勝利.

  • And that is really a shame,

    這是壹個恥辱,

  • because right now, we need Generation Possible

    因為如今,我需要可能的壹代人

  • to help us make some really important decisions about nuclear weapons.

    來幫助我們做出壹些關於核武器的重大決策.

  • For instance, will we further reduce our nuclear arsenals globally,

    比如說, 我們要進壹步全球性的削減核武器軍工廠嘛,

  • or will we spend billions,

    或者我們還需花幾十億,

  • maybe a trillion dollars,

    可能幾玩意美元,

  • to modernize them so they last throughout the 21st century,

    使軍工廠現代化來讓它們在整個21世紀被保留下來,

  • so that by the time Jasmine is my age, she's talking to her children

    當賈思明到我這個年齡時, 她會跟自己的孩子們,

  • and maybe even her grandchildren

    甚至可能她的孫子們講

  • about the threat of nuclear holocaust?

    關於核浩劫麽?

  • And if you're paying any attention at all to cyberthreats,

    如果我們把註意力都放在網絡威脅,

  • or, for instance, if you've read about the Stuxnet virus

    或者比如說如果我們已經知道的超級工廠病毒

  • or, for God's sake, if you've ever had an email account or a Yahoo account

    或者看在上帝份上如果你曾有壹個郵箱賬號或者雅虎賬號

  • or a phone hacked,

    或者手機被黑客攻擊,

  • you can imagine the whole new world of hurt that could be triggered

    你可以想象出壹個充滿痛苦的新世界

  • by modernization in a period of cyberwarfare.

    因爲網絡戰爭時期的現代化.

  • Now, if you're paying attention to the money,

    如果現在你重視怎麽使用資金,

  • a trillion dollars could go a long way

    幾十億美元可以走很長壹段路

  • to feeding and educating and employing people,

    被用來養活, 教育, 雇傭那些,

  • all of which could reduce the threat of nuclear war to begin with.

    可以降低開啓核戰爭的威脅的人們.

  • So --

    所以呢 --

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • This is really crucial right now,

    這個現在是非常關鍵的,

  • because nuclear weapons -- they're vulnerable.

    因為核武器非常脆弱.

  • We have solid evidence

    我們有強有力的證據

  • that terrorists are trying to get ahold of them.

    恐怖組織的人正在嘗試去掌握它.

  • Just this last spring,

    就在上壹個春季,

  • when four retirees and two taxi drivers were arrested

    四個退休人員和兩個出租車司機被拘捕

  • in the Republic of Georgia

    發生在喬治亞共和國

  • for trying to sell nuclear materials for 200 million dollars,

    拘捕原因是販賣核武器原材料標價2個多億美元,

  • they demonstrated that the black market for this stuff is alive and well.

    他們解釋了關於這方面的黑市很活躍.

  • And it's really important,

    而且這很重要,

  • because there have been dozens of accidents

    因為已經有十多起事故

  • involving nuclear weapons,

    是關於核武器的,

  • and I bet most of us have never heard anything about them.

    我敢打賭你們大部分人從來都沒有聽過它們中的任何壹件

  • Just here in the United States,

    就在美國,

  • we've dropped nuclear weapons on the Carolinas twice.

    我們已經在卡羅萊納州投放了兩次核武器.

  • In one case, one of the bombs,

    在某壹事件中,其中壹枚導彈,

  • which fell out of an Air Force plane,

    從空軍飛機投擲下來,

  • didn't detonate

    卻沒有爆炸

  • because the nuclear core was stored somewhere else on the plane.

    因為核武器裡面的核心被存放在了飛機上的某個位置.

  • In another case, the weapon did arm when it hit the ground,

    在另壹起事件中,

  • and five of the switches designed to keep it from detonating failed.

    然而在其中的五個用來防止爆炸的開關壞了.

  • Luckily, the sixth one didn't.

    幸運的是,第六個開關沒有壞.

  • But if that's not enough to get your attention,

    如果這都不能讓你吸引你的注意力的話,

  • there was the 1995 Black Brant incident.

    在1995年發生過黑色布兰特恐慌事故.

  • That's when Russian radar technicians saw

    當時俄羅斯雷達專家看見了

  • what they thought was a US nuclear missile

    壹個他們以為是美國核導彈的東西

  • streaking towards Russian airspace.

    飛向了俄羅斯空域.

  • It later turned out to be a Norwegian rocket

    之後的結果是那是壹枚來自挪威的火箭

  • collecting data about the northern lights.

    用來收集關於北極光的數據.

  • But at that time,

    然而就在那個時刻,

  • Russian President Boris Yeltsin came within five minutes

    俄羅斯總統鲍里斯·叶利钦五分鐘后

  • of launching a full-scale retaliatory nuclear attack

    決定開啟全規模的報復性核攻擊

  • against the United States.

    針對美國.

  • So, most of the world's nuclear nations

    因此, 大部分擁有核武器的國家

  • have committed to getting rid of these weapons of mass destruction.

    已經承諾正在削減這些杀伤力很大的武器.

  • But consider this:

    但是我們來考慮壹下這個:

  • the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

    核武器不再生合約,

  • which is the most widely adopted arms control treaty in history

    是迄今為止采納最廣泛的合约

  • with 190 signatories,

    有190個簽字人,

  • sets no specific date by which the world's nuclear-armed nations

    沒有為核武器國家規定具體日期

  • will get rid of their nuclear weapons.

    讓他們消除核武器.

  • Now, when John F. Kennedy sent a man to the moon

    如今, 當約翰肯尼迪把壹名男子送到了月亮上

  • and decided to bring him back, or decided to do both those things,

    之後決定把他帶回來或者決定倆件事都做,

  • he didn't say, "Hey, whenever you guys get to it."

    他沒有說過, “喂, 你們什麼時候都可以去那裡."

  • He gave us a deadline.

    他給了我們壹個截止日期.

  • He gave us a challenge

    他給我們壹個挑戰

  • that would have been incredible just a few years earlier.

    在那個時候的幾年前這還是壹件很不可思議的想法.

  • And with that challenge,

    然而伴隨著那個挑戰,

  • he inspired scientists and marketers,

    他啟迪了那些科學家和營銷者,

  • astronauts and schoolteachers.

    天空飛行員和學校老師.

  • He gave us a vision.

    他給了我們壹個設想.

  • But along with that vision,

    但是伴隨著那個設想,

  • he also tried to give us -- and most people don't know this, either --

    他嘗試給我們的還有大部分人對此並不知道

  • he tried to give us a partner

    他嘗試給我們壹個合作夥伴

  • in the form of our fiercest Cold War rival, the Soviet Union.

    以我們兇狠的的冷戰對手形態出現的蘇維埃共和國.

  • Because part of Kennedy's vision for the Apollo program

    因為肯尼迪關於阿波羅計劃設想的壹部分

  • was that it be a cooperation, not a competition, with the Soviets.

    是壹種與蘇維埃的合作而不是競爭.

  • And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet Premier, agreed.

    很顯然, 赫鲁晓夫, 苏维埃的總理, 同意了.

  • But before that cooperation could be realized,

    但是當合作被實現之前,

  • Kennedy was assassinated,

    肯尼迪遇刺,

  • and that part of the vision was deferred.

    那壹部分設想被推遲啦.

  • But the promise of joint innovation between these two nuclear superpowers

    但是兩個核武器超級大國間共同改革的承諾

  • wasn't totally extinguished.

    沒有完全消失.

  • Because in 1991, which is the year that Jasmine was born

    因為在1991年, 賈思明出生了

  • and the Soviet Union fell,

    與此同時蘇維埃共和國倒塌了,

  • these two nations engaged in a project

    這兩個共同致力於同壹個項目

  • that genuinely does seem incredible today

    在如今看來真的很不可思議

  • in the truest sense of that word,

    真正意义上来讲,

  • which is that the US sent cash to the Russians when they needed it most,

    當俄羅斯急需要錢時美國資助了他們,

  • to secure loose nuclear materials

    來確保loose核武器,

  • and to employ out-of-work nuclear scientists.

    用來僱傭那些失業的核專家.

  • They worked alongside American scientists to convert weapons-grade uranium

    他們在美國科學家的陪同下將武器級的铀

  • into the type of fuel that can be used for nuclear power instead.

    裝換為可以用于核動力的燃料.

  • They called it, "Megatons to Megawatts."

    他們管這個叫, “兆噸至兆瓦計劃.”

  • So the result is that for over 20 years,

    所以成果持續了20年之久,

  • our two nations had a program

    兩個國家有壹個項目

  • that meant that one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States

    目的是让在美国的十分之壹个灯泡的

  • was essentially fueled by former Russian warheads.

    能源主要来自前苏联的弹头.

  • So, together these two nations did something truly audacious.

    因此, 这两个国家真正的壹起做了壹件胆大的事.

  • But the good news is, the global community has the chance

    但是好消息是, 在此刻全球社區有了

  • to do something just as audacious today.

    壹個可以大膽做事情的機會.

  • To get rid of nuclear weapons

    為了消除核武器

  • and to end the supply of the materials required to produce them,

    還有停止供應生產他們的原材料,

  • some experts tell me would take 30 years.

    有些專家告訴我需要花費30年.

  • It would take a renaissance of sorts,

    它將需要復興,

  • the kinds of innovation that, for better or worse,

    那類可以往好的也可以忘懷的發展的創新,

  • underpinned both the Manhattan Project, which gave rise to nuclear weapons,

    亦可以鞏固了那個造就了核武器曼哈頓計劃,

  • and the Megatons to Megawatts program.

    也能促進兆噸至兆瓦計劃.

  • It would take design constraints.

    它可能会遇到瓶颈.

  • These are fundamental to creativity,

    這些是創新的基礎,

  • things like a platform for international collaboration;

    那些如國際合作平臺的途徑;

  • a date certain, which is a forcing mechanism;

    壹個準確日期是驅使它的機制;

  • and a positive vision that inspires action.

    壹個積極的設想可以啟發行動.

  • It would take us to 2045.

    它可能會帶我們來到2045年.

  • Now, 2045 happens to be the 100th anniversary

    那壹年恰好是核武器

  • of the birth of nuclear weapons in the New Mexico desert.

    在新墨西哥沙漠誕辰的100周年.

  • But it's also an important date for another reason.

    而對於另壹個原因這也是壹個重要的日期.

  • It's predicted to be the advent of the singularity,

    是被預測為奇點出現的時刻,

  • a new moment in human development,

    壹個在人類發展史中新篇章,

  • where the lines between artificial intelligence and human intelligence blur,

    到了那個時候人工智能和人類智慧的界限將變得模糊,

  • where computing and consciousness become almost indistinguishable

    計算機和自我意識變得很難區分

  • and advanced technologies help us solve the 21st century's greatest problems:

    先進的技術幫助我們解決了21世紀最嚴重的問題:

  • hunger, energy, poverty,

    飢餓, 能源, 貧窮,

  • ushering in an era of abundance.

    引領到一個富饒的時代.

  • And we all get to go to space

    我們都到了太空

  • on our way to becoming a multi-planetary species.

    在變成多星球居住的物種的道路上前行.

  • Now, the people who really believe this vision are the first to say

    現在, 那些真的相信這些想象的人是第一個說出來的

  • they don't yet know precisely how we're going to get there.

    他們仍不知道到底如何實現它們.

  • But the values behind their vision

    但是在這些想象背後的價值

  • and the willingness to ask "How might we?"

    和自發性的問“我們怎樣做?”

  • have inspired a generation of innovators.

    已經啟發了壹代科學家們.

  • They're working backward from the outcomes they want,

    他們在落後的條件下工作,

  • using the creative problem-solving methods of collaborative design.

    運用有創意的共同協同的問題解抉方法.

  • They're busting through obstacles.

    他們在困難中突破自我.

  • They're redefining what we all consider possible.

    他們重新定義了我們考慮的所有可能.

  • But here's the thing:

    但是這裏有壹件事:

  • that vision of abundance isn't compatible

    那個關於富饒的設想與這個

  • with a world that still relies on a 20th-century nuclear doctrine

    仍舊依賴於核信條的世界不兼容

  • called "mutually assured destruction."

    那壹信條被叫做“同歸於盡.”

  • It has to be about building the foundations for the 22nd century.

    它是為22世紀建立基礎的必要信條.

  • It has to be about strategies for mutually assured prosperity

    他是關於為了共同繁榮的策略

  • or, at the very least, mutually assured survival.

    或者, 至少也是共同生存.

  • Now, every day, I get to meet people who are real pioneers

    如今, 每天我都會認識些在核危機領域

  • in the field of nuclear threats.

    真正的開拓者.

  • As you can see, many of them are young women,

    正如你們看到的, 他們許多人都是年輕女性,

  • and they're doing fiercely interesting stuff,

    她們正在做極其有趣的事情,

  • like Mareena Robinson Snowden here, who is developing new ways,

    就像馬奈娜魯濱孫斯諾登這樣, 開發一些新方法,

  • better ways, to detect nuclear warheads,

    更好的方法, 來探測到核彈頭,

  • which will help us overcome a critical hurdle

    它將幫助我們克服

  • to international disarmament.

    國際性解除武裝的嚴重阻礙.

  • Or Melissa Hanham, who is using satellite imaging

    或者像麥麗莎·漢漢姆那樣用衛星繪圖

  • to make sense of what's going on around far-flung nuclear sites.

    使廣布的核據點中發生的事情變得更清晰.

  • Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe,

    或者我們有在歐洲的碧翠斯·费恩,

  • who has been campaigning to make nuclear weapons illegal

    她已經在國際法院

  • in international courts of law,

    發起了使核武器非法化的運動,

  • and just won a big victory at the UN last week.

    而且剛剛上周在聯合國大會贏得了大的勝利.

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • And yet,

    可是,

  • and yet,

    可是,

  • with all of our talk in this culture about moon shots,

    在這個談論月球發射的文化下,

  • too few members of Generation Possible and those of us who mentor them

    在壹可能的壹代人中只有極少數人和我們這些引導他們的人

  • are taking on nuclear weapons.

    在談論核武器.

  • It's as if there's a taboo.

    這就像壹個禁忌.

  • But I remember something Kennedy said that has really stuck with me,

    但是肯尼迪說過的一段話讓我銘記於心,

  • and that is something to the effect

    那句話很有影響力

  • that humans can be as big as the solutions

    他說人類在面對所有自己制造出來的問題時

  • to all the problems we've created.

    可以像方法壹樣強大.

  • No problem of human destiny, he said,

    人類命運中的問題沒有, 他說,

  • is beyond human beings.

    是超越人類本身的.

  • I believe that.

    我也堅信這句話.

  • And I bet a lot of you here believe that, too.

    我也敢打賭妳們很多人也相信它.

  • And I know Generation Possible believes it.

    我也認為可能的壹代人相信它.

  • So it's time to commit to a date.

    所以是該訂下規定期限的時刻了.

  • Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter

    讓我們結束核武器這一篇章

  • on the 100th anniversary of its inception.

    在它誕生的100週年的時候.

  • After all, by 2045, we will have held billions of people hostage

    畢竟,在2045年的左右在核毁灭的威胁下

  • to the threat of nuclear annihilation.

    我們將有幾十億人作為人質.

  • Surely, 100 years will have been enough.

    無疑, 壹百年時間已經足夠了.

  • Surely, a century of economic development

    無疑, 壹個世紀的經濟發展

  • and the development of military strategy

    和军事策略的发展

  • will have given us better ways to manage global conflict.

    將要給我們更好的方法來解決國際爭端.

  • Surely, if ever there was a global moon shot worth supporting,

    無疑, 如果有壹個全球性的登月計劃值得協助,

  • this is it.

    這就是那個時刻.

  • Now, in the face of real threats --

    現在, 當我們面對真正的威脅時 --

  • for instance, North Korea's recent nuclear weapons tests,

    比如說, 北朝鮮近期的核武器測試,

  • which fly in the face of sanctions --

    馬上面臨制裁--

  • reasonable people disagree

    有理性的人反對

  • about whether we should maintain some number of nuclear weapons

    關於是否應該保留壹定數量的核武器

  • to deter aggression