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  • Back when I was taking up my current role, Minister of Science and Technology

    我接現在這個職位的時候

  • a number of journalists asked me:

    很多媒體朋友都問我說:

  • "Mr.Chang, are you convinced that cloud computing will be successful in Taiwan?"

    「那張政委,你對於台灣雲端運算 是不是很有希望一定會推成功?」

  • To be honest, the answer was no.

    老實說,我心裡面答案是 一點都沒有信心

  • It wasn't that we had no hope for success at all,

    成功的希望其實不敢說 非常渺茫,但是非常挑戰

  • but it was definitely very challenging.

    為什麼呢?剛才其實 我們的 Ben 已經講了很多

  • Why is that so?

    換腦袋……換腦袋本來就不容易的事情 對不對?很多觀念

  • Actually Ben already touched on this topic.

    所以我今天要跟大家報告一下 我們碰到什麼挑戰

  • Changing minds really isn't easy, right?

    我們腦袋裡面什麼觀念要換

  • So many preconceptions.

    第一個問題

  • So what I want to report today are the challenges that we encountered,

    東西要擺到外面去 不要擺到自己家裡面,安不安全?

  • and what are the preconceptions that we need to change.

    那我們先不要講雲端 我們先說 50 年至 100 年前 銀行剛開門的時候

  • The first question:

    我們家裡面的老阿公老阿嬤

  • Is it safe to store our data on the cloud?

    要把自己家裡面原來放在 床底下的鈔票拿去銀行裡面

  • Let's put the Cloud aside for a while.

    是面臨一樣的問題

  • Let's first talk about 50, 100 years ago, when banks first opened.

    存到銀行裡面去以後 甚至早年有人說

  • Our old folks who lived through that time

    「唷!我去領錢的時候還我一張鈔票, 這鈔票不是我當初存進去那張鈔票耶!」

  • were taking money out from under the bed and depositing them into the banks.

    (笑声)

  • They were faced with a similar question.

    今天一樣的問題

  • After putting money into the banks, some folks even commented on the fact that

    今天,你說我放一個電腦 到一個雲端的資料中心去

  • the bills which they drew from the bank

    我用到的這個電腦根本 跟我放進去的說不定根本是不一樣的機器

  • weren't the exact same notes that they deposited!

    有人會說我用的不是 我當初擺進去那部機器,我好像吃虧了

  • We face the same problem today

    那當初你那張鈔票放到銀行裡面去的時候

  • Today, I can put a computer into a data center.

    人家還你一張比較新的 從來沒有人覺得說當初吃虧了,對不對

  • But when I'm accessing the data center, I may not be using the same computer.

    所以我們現在回到今天這個境界

  • Some may feel that they lost out because they don't get to use their own computer.

    我說好,那你覺得今天要很多人 把家裡面很多的金銀財寶

  • But when you deposit an old bill into the bank

    放到銀行保險箱去,他怎麼敢放出去?

  • and get a new bill in return, you wouldn't think of that as "losing out"

    因為銀行保證你一個 更安全的環境,對不對?

  • So let's come back to present day.

    今天也是一樣

  • Today, people who have lots of gold and jewellery

    今天我們說我們把我們的東西 擺到雲端的這個網路 跟雲端的電腦上面去

  • wants to deposit them at the bank. Why?

    當然,這些業者要能夠保證 比你家裡面更安全的一個環境

  • Because the bank promises to give you a safer environment than your home, right?

    那這當然你就會問說,那我 自己公司裡面安全可以做到滴水不漏

  • It's the same thing today.

    我盡我的每一分力量 難道雲端的這些業者可以嗎?

  • Today, when we put our data onto the cloud,

    當然,剛剛我們 Ben 說了 他要是不可以,他就不要吃這行飯了 對不對,所以當然要可以

  • the operators have to be able to give you a safer environment than your home.

    第二,那個雲端的資料中心很花電,很費水

  • Then you might ask me: I can control everything at my own company

    我們宏碁以前那一棟 5 層樓的機房, 一年的電費要 4 億新台幣

  • and make sure that my data is secure.

    地下室的儲水槽有 6000 噸的水

  • Can a cloud operator do the same?

    人家說,那這個一點都不環保,對不對?

  • Like Ben said just now, if he couldn't

    可是,各位我問問你

  • then he wouldn't be doing this for a living. So of course he can.

    今天我們為什麼鼓勵 大家坐公車坐公共運輸?

  • Second myth: the utilities at cloud data centers are very expensive

    公共運輸你一公升的 柴油汽油能夠跑幾公里?

  • The electric bill at Acer's data center is 400 million Taiwanese Dollars every year.

    跑 2 公里了不起

  • Our basement water tank holds 6000 tons of water.

    你自己的這個油電車 1 公升跑個 10 公里 蠻有可能的,對不對?

  • Some people say that this is not environmentally friendly.

    為什麼我們鼓勵大家 去坐公車,不要開私家車?

  • But let me ask you.

    因為公車有這經濟規模

  • Why do we encourage people to take buses nowadays?

    同樣地,今天我們鼓勵大家 把這電腦全部擺到雲端資料中心裡面

  • How far can a bus run on a liter of fuel?

    透過雲端資料中心的經濟規模的運轉 可以讓你做到每一個電腦用的水跟電都比較少

  • 2 kilometers if you're lucky

    但是有人說,像我們以前的老闆 我們的王振堂董事長就說:

  • With your own hybrid car you can probably go 10km on that same liter of fuel.

    「可是現在有這企業的社會責任, 在算碳足跡的時候,全部都算在宏碁頭上, 怎麼可以呢?」

  • Then why are we encouraging you to take the bus instead of driving your car?

    當然,這個碳足跡的算法 還沒有大家一個公用的作法

  • Because the bus has the economy of scale.

    當然碳足跡不可以 算在宏碁一個人頭上

  • Likewise, today we are encouraging people to put their computers into data centers

    要算到誰頭上?

  • and through the economy of scale in the data center

    這個資料中心裡面有誰在用 用多少電,照比例去分攤那個碳足跡

  • we can reduce the average amount of power and water used up by individual computers.

    同樣地,今天如果說 Google 到你剛剛所說彰濱工業區設資料中心

  • But some people like my previous boss, Chairman J.T. Wang says:

    那也是一樣,Google 這資料中心 我估計他以後一年電費 大概至少 20 億跑不掉

  • "But then all that carbon footprint becomes Acer's! That's unacceptable!"

    那這個碳足跡算到誰身上? 算到 Google 身上?或是算到台灣身上?

  • It's true that we don't yet have a standardized way

    不行,說不定這個 Google 的資料中心 服務了亞洲,日本、韓國這些國家

  • of calculating carbon footprint.

    碳足跡要算到韓國、日本身上 絕對不能算到台灣身上

  • But of course Acer alone can't bear the entire carbon footprint.

    台灣是在替整個世界的環保盡一份力量 從這個資料中心的觀點來講

  • So who should bear it?

    什麼挑戰?剛才講到軟體 所以軟體有什麼問題?

  • The carbon footprint should be apportioned

    各位你看報紙,這個我們的 張惠妹(阿妹)的演唱會開賣

  • to the users of the data center based on how much electricity they use.

    那個票還沒有賣完以前電腦先當機

  • Similarly for Google's data center in Chang Hua County, which you mentioned.

    幾年以前,農曆年除夕的 火車票還沒有賣完以前

  • That's the same thing.

    那個賣票的伺服器先當機

  • Google's annual electric bill will be at least 2 billion for sure.

    這些都不是硬體的問題 這些都是軟體的問題

  • So whose carbon footprint is it? Google's? Or Taiwan's?

    當年,大家說可是 你看,我們現在開始

  • Google may be using this data center to serve other Asian countries

    鼓勵大家寫這些應用 手機上面的應用,對不對?

  • like Japan or Korea.

    那會寫應用這個軟體有什麼難的呢?

  • The carbon footprint should go to them, not Taiwan.

    各位,我請問你,憤怒鳥 在你手機裡面跑憤怒鳥的時候

  • Taiwan is doing it's part for the environment by running this data center.

    那個軟體幾個人在用? 你一個人在用,對不對?

  • What about challenges?

    我請問你,賣火車票 除夕火車票在開賣的時候

  • We talked about software.

    多少人在搶火車票?

  • What's wrong with software?

    至少上千上萬人在搶火車票

  • If you read the papers, you'd know that

    一個軟體同時給一萬個人用,給一個人用 這寫軟體的方式是絕對不一樣的

  • when we were selling tickets for A-Mei's concert,

    台灣有沒有這個能力呢?

  • the computer hanged before we could finish selling the tickets.

    一個大問號,不知道

  • A few years ago, we were selling train tickets for the eve of Chinese New Year.

    那你說我們台灣要不要來做呢?

  • But the server hanged before we could finish selling.

    我先說這個,你如果看到 Google 的 Gmail

  • These are not hardware problems. They are software issues.

    大家說電子郵件好不好寫? 電子郵件是最基本的一個功能,好像很好寫

  • We see a lot of apps being written by almost everyone nowadays and so we ask:

    各位,你如果看到 Gmail 有多少人 Google 公司裡面有多少人在寫

  • If you could write handphone apps, then why not software?

    你就不會想再去做一個 電子郵件跟他競爭了

  • Let me ask you, when you're running Angry Birds on your handphone,

    我跟你,大概我們從來 沒有去過 Gmail 的部門

  • how many people are using that software? Just you, right?

    Gmail 部門大概自己 佔了一棟房子差不多

  • But when we are selling train tickets on the eve of Chinese New year

    所以這個就是說 要開發這些軟體不是這麼簡單

  • how many people are trying to buy those tickets?

    最重要的是說,交易行為本身 技術上就還沒有一個解決方案

  • At least thousands if not tens of thousands.

    甚麼叫交易行為呢?

  • A software meant for thousands of simultaneous users

    就是說,剛剛講火車票 除夕下午的黃金時間

  • is very different from a software written for just one user.

    那一班太魯閣號只有 8 節車廂,400 個人

  • Does Taiwan have this capability then?

    這 400 張票同時有一萬個人在搶

  • That's a good question. No one knows the answer.

    這個時候,每個位置一瞬間會被賣掉

  • So should Taiwan do it?

    資料庫裡面的資料馬上變掉

  • Let's talk about Google's Gmail first.

    這個時候,你說我把資料庫拷貝 10 份、20 份 讓他同時很多人去讀取

  • Is email software programming easy?

    對不起,瞬間之間 一個票一個位置的票賣掉

  • It's a very basic function and writing it seems to be pretty easy.

    資料庫裡面馬上去更新說 這個票不能再賣給第二個人

  • But if you see how many people in Google are working on Gmail

    這個時候你怎麼把資料庫拷貝 10 份、20 份,讓它同時給很多人去上

  • you wouldn't want to try and create a competing email software.

    這個技術瓶頸短期內 還沒有辦法解決

  • You and I may have never been to Gmail.

    所以其實沒有那麼簡單 一點都不簡單

  • The Gmail department by itself pretty much takes up an entire building.

    最後,我們台灣的機會在哪裡?

  • So this tells us that developing software isn't so easy.

    大家都知道說,雲端從底層的基礎設施 到中間的平臺,到應用

  • Most importantly, transactional behavior is a problem without a technical solution.

    當你從底下往上走的時候 這個特性會再變的

  • What is transactional behavior?

    底下基礎設施,譬如說賣很多伺服器 這個時候產值很大,以產值為訴求

  • Let's go back to the train tickets. On the eve of Chinese New Year

    但是你寫到最後這個 應用軟體的時候,它價值很高

  • the most popular Taroko Express has 8 cars, 400 seats.

    譬如說我們講我們的健保軟體,我請問你, 我們寫一套健保軟體,全世界可以賣幾套?

  • Ten thousand people are fighting for these 400 tickets.

    只賣台灣這一套 因為只有台灣在做我們的健保

  • Every seat was snatched up in an instant.

    大陸的健保、美國的健保根本完全不一樣

  • The data in the database is changing constantly.

    我們的健保從一代到二代馬上改 我們的軟體馬上跟著改

  • At the same time you want me to make 10, 20 copies of the data for multiple users?

    你希望這健保軟體可以賣第二套嗎?

  • Sorry, can't be done.

    門兒都沒有,世界上沒有第二套的

  • Within an instant all the seats are sold out.

    但是呢,你說這健保軟體有沒有價值?

  • The database must be updated immediately so the same ticket isn't sold twice.

    當然有價值,你在看病的時候就靠這軟體 全台灣都靠這軟體

  • How can you, at the same time, make so many copies of the data?

    價值非常明顯,可是產值呢?

  • This technical bottleneck has no solution in the short term.

    大概就是當初健保局給某個公司

  • So it's actually not that simple, not simple at all.

    不知道幾塊錢做這套軟體 一點產值都沒有

  • Lastly, where is Taiwan's opportunity?

    反過來呢,我剛剛講的說,這個伺服器

  • We know that the Cloud has infrastructure, platform and application software.

    全世界賣了幾萬套,幾十萬套 都有可能上百萬套

  • Each of these links on the value chain has different characteristics.

    可是呢,我們說 A 牌到 B 牌的 伺服器其實沒有差那麼多

  • You can sell a lot of servers so your main aim is to increase volume.

    所以這個裡面大家強調是這個產值

  • But when you talk about software, that's a high value product.

    那我們現在要去開發這些應用軟體

  • For example our healthcare system. How many copies can you sell?

    很多人都問我說 我們台灣有沒有機會?

  • Just one.

    我說,台灣或許有機會或許沒機會

  • Because only Taiwan is using this software.

    我們要開發應用軟體去 造福我們的健保的人

  • The healthcare of mainland China and USA are completely different.

    造福我們以後電子發票的人

  • We are switching to our second generation healthcare system soon.

    這個時候,我們要講一句 以前鄧小平講過的話

  • You think you can sell a second copy of this system?

    「黑貓白貓,只要會抓老鼠的都是好貓。」

  • No way. There won't be a second sale.

    不管是本土的產品非本土的產品 只要幫我們把健保軟體做出來

  • But is this healthcare software valuable?

    讓我們看病順順利利的 它對我們就有價值

  • Certainly.

    所以我們先用不管國內國外的軟體 先把我們要給大家的這個福利做出來

  • The whole of Taiwan is relying on this software when we go to the doctor's.

    然後有一天我們摸清楚說 原來國外的軟體是這麼一個運作法

  • The value is very obvious. But what about volume?

    我們再如法炮製做一個國內的 有一天把它換掉

  • I don't know which company the project was awarded to

    但是我們最後的目的就是要讓我們應用在雲端上能夠推展,讓大家每個人都舒舒服服地

  • or how much they were paid, but there's no volume to speak of.

    最好是不要看病,但是一旦你要看病 就是很簡單,沒有什麼資料不通的問題

  • On the other hand, we were speaking of servers.

    你要買火車票的時候,可以說,再長的假期 你也可以一秒鐘裡面買到你要的火車票

  • We've sold hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions of servers around the world.

    不要一天到晚聽到說:「對不起,請你 5 分鐘以後等一會兒再上機,因為現在主機正在忙。」

  • But there's basically no difference between brand A and brand B.

    以後我們再不希望看到這些畫面。謝謝!

  • That's why we put the emphasis on production volume.

    (鼓掌)

  • As for developing application softwares

  • many people ask me: Does Taiwan stand a chance?

  • Maybe.

  • Maybe not.

  • We must develop software to benefit those who use healthcare

  • to help those who take electronic receipts.

  • At this time, I'd like to quote Deng Xiao Ping

  • "Be it a black cat or a white cat, a cat that can catch mice is a good cat".

  • Whether a product is domestic or imported doesn't matter

  • as long as it gives us good healthcare

  • and allows us to see the doctor with no fuss, then it is valuable to us.

  • It doesn't matter who made the software,

  • first we must ensure that we deliver on welfare

  • and then one day when we figure out how the imported software is made

  • we can clone it domestically and replace it.

  • But our final goal is to implement Cloud technology

  • so that when you have to visit the doctor

  • your visit is a smooth one, with no data issues.

  • When you buy your train tickets it won't matter how popular the date is

  • you can still buy your ticket within a second.

  • Instead of always seeing messages like

  • "Sorry, the server is busy right now, please try again in five minutes."

  • Let's hope never to see such messages again.

  • Thank you. (Applause)

Back when I was taking up my current role, Minister of Science and Technology

我接現在這個職位的時候

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

A2 初級 中文 美國腔 軟體 雲端 健保 台灣 資料 應用

【TEDx】臺灣雲端計算的迷思與挑戰: Simon Chang (張善政) at TEDxTaipeiChange 2012 (【TEDx】台灣雲端計算的迷思與挑戰: Simon Chang (張善政) at TEDxTaipeiChange 2012)

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    Amy.Lin 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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