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  • Will we do whatever it takes to tackle climate change?

    我們是否會「不計代價」 地對抗氣候變遷?

  • I come at this question not as a green campaigner,

    我提出這個問題, 不是因為我是環保人士,

  • in fact, I confess to be rather hopeless at recycling.

    坦白說,我對垃圾回收 不報太大的希望。

  • I come at it as a professional observer of financial policy making

    我是以一位專業財經政策制定 觀察家的身分,提出這個問題,

  • and someone that wonders how history will judge us.

    也是一位想知道歷史將 如何評價我們的人。

  • One day,

    總有一天,

  • this ring that belonged to my grandfather

    這只屬於我爺爺的戒指,

  • will pass to my son, Charlie.

    也會傳承到我兒子查理手上。

  • And I wonder what his generation

    而我在想,他的時代,

  • and perhaps the one that follows

    或他的下一代,

  • will make of the two lives this ring has worked.

    會如何因為我和爺爺的 所做所為而改變?

  • My grandfather was a coal miner.

    我的爺爺是一位煤礦礦工。

  • In his time,

    在他的年代,

  • burning fossil fuels for energy and for allowing economies to develop

    為了能源及經濟發展, 燃燒石化燃料的行為

  • was accepted.

    是被广泛接受的。

  • We know now that that is not the case

    現在大家都知道, 事實並非如此,

  • because of the greenhouse gases that coal produces.

    因為燒煤會產生溫室 氣體。

  • But today,

    但,如今,

  • I fear it's the industry in which I work that will be judged more harshly

    我擔心我所工作的產業 將來會因為

  • because of its impact on the climate --

    它沒有發揮對氣候變化的影響力 而遭受嚴厲地批判,

  • more harshly than my grandfather's industry, even.

    甚至被批判得 比我爺爺的產業還慘。

  • I work, of course, in the banking industry,

    當然,我從事的是銀行業,

  • which will be remembered for its crisis in 2008 --

    而2008年銀行業所經歷的的金融危機 已然被載入史冊--

  • a crisis that diverted the attention and finances of governments

    正因为這個危機,政府轉移了 注意力與財政方向,

  • away from some really, really important promises,

    讓一些原本相當,相當 重要的承諾都被忽視了,

  • like promises made at the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009

    例如 2009 年在哥本哈根 聯合國的氣候大會上

  • to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year

    承諾每年要動用 的1000 億美金,

  • to help developing countries move away from burning fossil fuels

    以幫助發展中國家 慢慢從燃燒石化燃料

  • and transition to using cleaner energy.

    轉型到使用乾淨的能源。

  • That promise is already in jeopardy.

    這個承諾已經陷入危機。

  • And that's a real problem,

    而這是一個現實的問題,

  • because that transition to cleaner energy needs to happen

    因為轉型到乾淨能源的這件事,

  • sooner rather than later.

    需要盡早進行 而不能再拖延下去。

  • Firstly,

    首先,

  • because greenhouse gases, once released,

    因為,溫室氣體一旦排放出來,

  • stay in the atmosphere for decades.

    它會停留在大氣層中好幾十年。

  • And secondly,

    第二,

  • if a developing economy builds its power grid around fossil fuels today,

    如果今天一個發展中的經濟體,一旦 建立了他們自己的石化燃料能源網路,

  • it's going to be way more costly to change later on.

    之後想要改回來, 就得花更多的成本。

  • So for the climate,

    所以,對氣候而言,

  • history may judge that the banking crisis happened

    歷史也許會評斷

  • at just the wrong time.

    我們的金融危機 只是發生的不是時候。

  • The story need not be this gloomy, though.

    其實故事不需要這麼淒慘的。

  • Three years ago,

    三年前,

  • I argued that governments could use the tools

    我曾提出言論說過, 政府可以善用工具

  • deployed to save the financial system

    拯救金融系統,

  • to meet other global challenges.

    來迎接其它的全球挑戰。

  • And these arguments are getting stronger, not weaker, with time.

    而這些言論隨著時間, 越來越強烈,越來越受到重視。

  • Let's take a brief reminder of what those tools looked like.

    讓我們稍微回憶一下, 這些工具是長什麼樣子。

  • When the financial crisis hit in 2008,

    當 2008 年的金融風暴來襲時,

  • the central banks of the US and UK

    美國及英國的中央銀行,

  • began buying bonds issued by their own governments

    開始購買他們自己政府 所發行的債劵,

  • in a policy known as "quantitative easing."

    也就是大家所孰知的 「量化寬鬆 」政策。

  • Depending on what happens to those bonds when they mature,

    當這些債劵到期時,看看當時的狀況, 再決定要不要繼續,

  • this is money printing by another name.

    這只是另一種印錢的名義而已。

  • And boy, did they print.

    而且天哪,他們真的印了。

  • The US alone created four trillion dollars' worth of its own currency.

    光美國就印了將近四兆美金。

  • This was not done in isolation.

    這不是單一國家做的事。

  • In a remarkable act of cooperation,

    而是由 188 個會員國共同組成的

  • the 188 countries that make up the International Monetary Fund, the IMF,

    國際貨幣基金組織 IMF 所做出的決定,

  • agreed to issue 250 billion dollars' worth of their own currency --

    他們同意發行 2500 億美金 等值的貨幣,

  • the Special Drawing Right --

    --也就是SDR「特別提款權」--

  • to boost reserves around the world.

    來增加全球的貨幣儲備供給。

  • When the financial crisis moved to Europe,

    當金融風暴移到歐洲後,

  • the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi,

    歐洲中央銀行行長, 馬里奧.德拉吉,

  • promised "to do whatever it takes."

    也承諾要「不計代價」地 拯救金融市場。

  • And they did.

    而他們真的做到了。

  • The Bank of Japan repeated those words -- that exact same commitment --

    日本銀行也重複一樣的話 --完全一樣的承諾--

  • to do "whatever it takes" to reflate their economy.

    「不計代價」地 要復甦他們的經濟。

  • In both cases,

    這兩個案例中,

  • "whatever it takes" meant trillions of dollars more

    「不計代價」就意味著, 這些好幾十億的印鈔票政策,

  • in money-printing policies that continue today.

    會一直跟著我們走到今天。

  • What this shows

    這表示,

  • is that when faced with some global challenges,

    當面對一些全球性的挑戰時,

  • policy makers are able to act collectively, with urgency,

    政策制定者們也會 緊急、共同地做出一些

  • and run the risks of unconventional policies like money printing.

    非傳統式的高風險決策, 像是印鈔票。

  • So, let's go back to that original question:

    所以,讓我們回到原來的問題上:

  • Can we print money for climate finance?

    我們可以為氣候的 金融印鈔票嗎?

  • Three years ago,

    三年前,

  • the idea of using money in this way was something of a taboo.

    我們這樣用錢的方式 是一種不被允許的禁忌。

  • Once you break down and dismantle the idea

    一旦你破壞了

  • that money is a finite resource,

    「錢是有限資源」的原則,

  • governments can quickly get overwhelmed by demands from their people

    接踵而来的民众诉求

  • to print more and more money for other causes:

    将会迫使政府在各个方面印更多的钱,

  • education, health care, welfare --

    比如教育、醫療照顧、社會福利--

  • even defense.

    甚至是國防。

  • And there are some truly terrible historical examples of money printing --

    而這樣的印錢方式,的確有 可怕的歷史案例可以借鑒

  • uncontrolled money printing --

    --失控的鈔票列印--

  • leading to hyperinflation.

    會導致通貨膨脹。

  • Think: Weimar Republic in 1930;

    想想:1930 年的 威瑪共和國;

  • Zimbabwe more recently, in 2008,

    近代 2008 年的辛巴威,

  • when the prices of basic goods like bread are doubling every day.

    當時一些基本生活用品, 像是麵包,每天加倍地上漲。

  • But all of this is moving the public debate forward,

    但這些所有事情的發展 推進了公開辯論的腳步,

  • so much so, that money printing for the people is now discussed openly

    因此,為人民印錢, 現在已經可以公開地被討論,

  • in the financial media, and even in some political manifestos.

    無論財經媒體,甚至一些 政黨的政策裡面都看得到。

  • But it's important the debate doesn't stop here,

    但很重要的一點是,

  • with printing national currencies.

    列印國際貨幣的爭論 不會就此停止,

  • Because climate change is a shared global problem,

    因為氣候變遷是一個 全球共同的問題,

  • there are some really compelling reasons

    這也是為什麼

  • why we should be printing that international currency

    我們必須請 IMF

  • that's issued by the IMF,

    發行國際貨幣來資助這件事,

  • to fund it.

    其實也是萬不得已的。

  • The Special Drawing Right, or SDR,

    「特別提款權」也就是 SDR,

  • is the IMF's electronic unit of account

    是 IMF 的電子記帳單位,

  • that governments use to transfer funds amongst each other.

    用來方便政府之間 帳戶金額的移轉。

  • Think of it as a peer-to-peer payment network,

    想像一下,它就是 P2P 的網路付款方式,

  • like Bitcoin, but for governments.

    像是比特幣,但,是政府之間在用的。

  • And it's truly global.

    而且,它真的是全球性的。

  • Each of the 188 members of the IMF hold SDR quotas

    188 個 IMF 會員國手上 都握有 SDR 的配額,

  • as part of their foreign exchange reserves.

    做為他們部分的外匯存底。

  • These are national stores of wealth

    這些是國際財富的儲藏室,

  • that countries keep to protect themselves against currency crises.

    它可以讓國家持續保護 它們自己免於貨幣的危機。

  • And that global nature is why,

    而這也是為什麼

  • at the height of the financial crisis in 2009,

    在 2009 年金融海嘯的最高峰,

  • the IMF issued those extra 250 billion dollars --

    IMF 又加碼多印了 2500 億美金--

  • because it served as a collective global action

    因為這次集體的全球行動,

  • that safeguarded countries large and small in one fell swoop.

    把大大小小的國家, 全部一次性地保護起來。

  • But here --

    但這裡有一個

  • here's the intriguing part.

    很耐人尋味的地方。

  • More than half of those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009 --

    2009年,有超過半數的 SDRs

  • 150 billion dollars' worth --

    --價值1500億美金--

  • went to developed market countries who, for the most part,

    跑到已開發國家的市場裏面,

  • have a modest need for these foreign exchange reserves,

    因為大部分這些國家的外匯存底 都有一個小小的需求,

  • because they have flexible exchange rates.

    它們需要較靈活的交換利率。

  • So those extra reserves that were printed in 2009,

    所以,這些 2009 年印出來的鈔票,

  • in the end, for developed market countries at least,

    最後跑到已開發國家市場了,

  • weren't really needed.

    但他們根本不是真的需要這筆錢。

  • And they remain unused today.

    所以他們保留到今天。

  • So here's an idea.

    我這裡有一個想法。

  • As a first step,

    第一步,

  • why don't we start spending those unused,

    為什麼我們不把這些

  • those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009,

    在 2009 年多印出來 還沒有使用的鈔票,

  • to combat climate change?

    投入到對抗氣候變遷上呢?

  • They could, for example,

    他們可以的,例如,

  • be used to buy bonds issued by the UN's Green Climate Fund.

    利用這筆錢來買聯合國 綠色氣候基金會發行的債劵。

  • This was a fund created in 2009,

    這是根據 2009 年哥本哈根的聯合國

  • following that climate agreement in Copenhagen.

    氣候大會協議所成立的一個基金會。

  • And it was designed to channel funds towards developing countries

    它是被設計用來 引渡氣候專案基金

  • to meet their climate projects.

    到開發中國家的一個機構。

  • It's been one of the most successful funds of its type,

    這是一個很典型的成功基金會,

  • raising almost 10 billion dollars.

    他們已經舉債將近 100 億美金。

  • But if we use those extra SDRs that were issued,

    但如果我們把這些多餘 發行的 SDRs 拿來使用,

  • it helps governments get back on track,

    它可以幫助政府重回到軌道上,

  • to meet that promise of 100 billion dollars a year

    來兌現政府因金融風暴而拖沓許久的

  • that was derailed by the financial crisis.

    每年 1000 億美金的承諾。

  • It could also --

    它也可以--

  • it could also serve as a test case.

    也可以用它來做測試。

  • If the inflationary consequences of using SDRs in this way are benign,

    如果用了這筆 SDRs 所造成的通膨後果是溫和的,

  • it could be used to justify

    那它就可以用來評斷

  • the additional, extra issuance of SDRs, say, every five years,

    比如,每五年額外發行的 SDRs 所造成的衝擊是否也是溫和的,

  • again, with the commitment

    當然,這要已開發國家承諾

  • that developed-market countries would direct their share

    會直接把新增加

  • of the new reserves

    存底的分配額匯到

  • to the Green Climate Fund.

    綠色氣候基金會。

  • Printing international money in this way has several advantages

    用這樣印「國際鈔票」的方式

  • over printing national currencies.

    比起直接印「國家鈔票」的方式, 多了很多的好處。

  • The first is it's really easy to argue

    第一,花錢來減緩氣候變遷 對大家都有好處,

  • that spending money to mitigate climate change benefits everyone.

    這一點大家不會有甚麼意見的。

  • No one section of society benefits from the printing press over another.

    無論哪一國的印刷機印錢, 都沒有人可從中獲取額外的利益,

  • That problem of competing claims is mitigated.

    爭相申請印錢的問題是很小的。

  • It's also fair to say

    可以很公平地說,

  • that because it takes so many countries to agree to issue these extra SDRs,

    這樣可以讓很多國家 同意發行額外的 SDRs,

  • it's highly unlikely that money printing would get out of control.

    因為這樣印錢的方式 不太可能會不受控制。

  • What you end up with is a collective, global action

    畢竟你最終是一個 全球的集體行為,

  • aimed -- and it's controlled global action --

    一個大家目標一致 可控的集體行為,

  • aimed at a global good.

    目的就是為了地球好。

  • And,

    而且,

  • as we've learned with the money-printing schemes,

    因為我們已經有印鈔票的經驗,

  • whatever concerns we have can be allayed by rules.

    無論大家有甚麼顧慮, 都可以透過規則來排除。

  • So, for example,

    例如,

  • the issuance of these extra SDRs every five years could be capped,

    可以限制這些每五年額外發行的 國際貨幣 SDRs 的總金額 ,

  • such that this international currency is never more than five percent

    不能超過

  • of global foreign exchange reserves.

    全球外匯存底的5%。

  • That's important because it would allay

    這很重要,因為這樣做 可以避免掉一些可笑的疑慮,

  • well, let's say, the ridiculous concerns that the US might have

    比如說,

  • that the SDR could ever challenge the dollar's dominant role

    有人會質疑這些 SDRs 會挑戰

  • in international finance.

    美元在國際金融市場的主導地位。

  • And in fact,

    而事實上,

  • I think the only thing that the SDR would likely steal from the dollar

    我認為唯一可能發生的事就是,

  • under this scheme

    SDR 在這個計畫裡下,可能會以 美元的計價方式來發行,

  • is its nickname, the "greenback."

    也就是俗稱的「綠背」(美金)

  • Because even with that cap in place,

    因為即使有限額的規定,

  • the IMF could have followed up its issuance --

    國際貨幣基金組織 也會追蹤它的發行狀況--

  • its massive issuance of SDRs in 2009 --

    包括 2009 年大量發行的 SDRs,

  • with a further 200 billion dollars of SDRs in 2014.

    以及 2014 年追加 2000 億美金的 SDRs。

  • So hypothetically,

    假設,

  • that would mean that developed countries could have contributed

    如果這意味著,已開發國家需要

  • up to 300 billion dollars' worth of SDRs

    貢獻價值 3000 億美金的 SDRs

  • to the Green Climate Fund.

    到綠色氣候基金會。

  • That's 30 times what it has today.

    這個數字是當今規模的 30 倍。

  • And you know,

    你可能會覺得

  • as spectacular as that sounds,

    這數字聽起來相當驚人,

  • it's only just beginning to look like "whatever it takes."

    但這僅是「不計代價」 的剛開始而已。

  • And just to think what amazing things could be done with that money,

    想一下這筆錢可以為我們 帶來甚麼驚豔的事,

  • consider this:

    想一下這件事:

  • in 2009,

    2009 年,

  • Norway promised one billion dollars of its reserves to Brazil

    挪威答應,如果巴西 遵守森林砍伐的目標,

  • if they followed through on their goals on deforestation.

    他們要給巴西 10 億 美金的外匯存底。

  • That program has since delivered a 70 percent reduction in deforestation

    這個計畫在過去十年,

  • in the past decade.

    已經減少 70% 的森林砍伐。

  • That's saving 3.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions,

    也就是減少了 32 億噸

  • which is the equivalent of taking all American cars off the roads

    的二氧化碳排放,

  • for three whole years.

    相當於全美國汽車三年的排放量。

  • So what could we do

    所以,如果也有其它300個像這樣的

  • with 300 other pay-for-performance climate projects like that,

    「看表現付錢」的氣候專案,

  • organized on a global scale?

    我們要如何以全球規模 的方式把它組織起來?

  • We could take cars off the roads for a generation.

    我們可以減少一個 世代的汽車碳排。

  • So,

    所以,

  • let's not quibble about whether we can afford to fund climate change.

    讓我們不要再狡辯我們是否有能力 可以支付提供改善氣候變遷的資金。

  • The real question is:

    真正的問題是:

  • Do we care enough about future generations

    我們是否真的夠關心 我們未來的子子孫孫?

  • to take the very same policy risks we took to save the financial system?

    並再次承擔類似拯救 金融系統時的政策風險?

  • After all,

    畢竟,

  • we could do it,

    我們做得到,

  • we did do it

    我們也曾經做到,

  • and we are doing it today.

    而我們今天就要開始做。

  • We must, must, must do "whatever it takes."

    我們必須、必須、必須、 再次的「不計代價」。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝各位!

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

Will we do whatever it takes to tackle climate change?

我們是否會「不計代價」 地對抗氣候變遷?

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【TED】邁克爾-梅特卡夫:為應對氣候變化提供資金的挑釁性方式(A provocative way to finance the fight against climate change | Michael Metcalfe)。 (【TED】Michael Metcalfe: A provocative way to finance the fight against climate change (A provocative way to finance the fight against climat

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    Hong Chong Ip 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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