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  • I'm going to talk today about saving more,

    我今天想聊聊存錢

  • but not today, tomorrow.

    但不是今天,是明天

  • I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.

    我將要聊聊為明天儲存更多錢

  • It's a program that Richard Thaler

    有一個計劃

  • from the University of Chicago and I

    是來自芝加哥大學理查德泰勒和我一起

  • devised maybe 15 years ago.

    大概15年前設計的

  • The program, in a sense,

    這個計劃,從某種程度來說,

  • is an example of behavioral finance

    是行為經濟學的一個例子

  • on steroids --

    也就是-

  • how we could really use behavioral finance.

    我們如何真正利用行為經濟學

  • Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?

    於是你會問,甚麼是行為經濟學?

  • So let's think about how we manage our money.

    讓我們來思考我們平時是怎樣理財的

  • Let's start with mortgages.

    我們從房貸說起

  • It's kind of a recent topic,

    最近我們常看到這個話題

  • at least in the U.S.

    至少在美國是如此

  • A lot of people buy

    很多人買

  • the biggest house they can afford,

    在他們支付能力範圍之內最大的房子

  • and actually slightly bigger than that.

    事實上比可支付範圍還要稍大一些

  • And then they foreclose.

    最後他們付不起房貸

  • And then they blame the banks

    於是他們開始埋怨銀行

  • for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.

    說銀行是貸款給他們的壞人

  • Let's also think about

    我們再想想

  • how we manage risks --

    我們怎樣管理風險-

  • for example, investing in the stock market.

    舉個例子,投資股票市場

  • Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,

    兩年前,三年前,大約四年前

  • markets did well.

    市場運行得很好

  • We were risk takers, of course.

    當然那時候我們都是投機者

  • Then market stocks seize

    接著股票市場蕭條衰敗

  • and we're like, "Wow.

    我們會想,“噢

  • These losses, they feel, emotionally,

    這些損失,在情感上

  • they feel very different

    他們確實感覺很不同

  • from what we actually thought about it

    和股市行情上漲時

  • when markets were going up."

    我們對損失的感覺不一樣”

  • So we're probably not doing a great job

    所以在風險投機上

  • when it comes to risk taking.

    我們似乎也做的不太好

  • How many of you have iPhones?

    你們有多少人用iPhone?

  • Anyone? Wonderful.

    有人麼?非常好

  • I would bet many more of you

    我打賭這裡擁有iPhone的人中的大多數

  • insure your iPhone --

    都給你的iPhone買保險了

  • you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.

    你通過加買的質保暗中給手機買了保險

  • What if you lose your iPhone?

    如果你丟失了你的iPhone

  • What if you do this?

    你會怎麼辦呢?

  • How many of you have kids?

    你們中多少人有小孩?

  • Anyone?

    有人有嗎?

  • Keep your hands up

    手再擧著不要放

  • if you have sufficient life insurance.

    如果你有購買生命保險的話

  • I see a lot of hands coming down.

    我看到很多手放下去了

  • I would predict,

    我會預測

  • if you're a representative sample,

    如果你是一個典型的代表

  • that many more of you

    你們中的很多人

  • insure your iPhones than your lives,

    為你的iPhone買了保險卻沒有為你的生命買保險

  • even when you have kids.

    即便你已經有了小孩

  • We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.

    在買保險的方面我們做得也不是很好

  • The average American household

    美國家庭平均每戶

  • spends 1,000 dollars a year

    一年要在樂透上

  • on lotteries.

    花費1,000美元

  • And I know it sounds crazy.

    我知道這聽起來很瘋狂

  • How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?

    你們中有多少人一年會花1,000美金買樂透?

  • No one.

    沒有人

  • So that tells us that the people not in this room

    那麽這告訴我們有些不在這個房間裡的人

  • are spending more than a thousand

    買樂透超過了一千美金

  • to get the average to a thousand.

    所以最終平均才會等於一千美金

  • Low-income people

    特別是有些低收入戶

  • spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.

    一年在樂透上花費了超過一千美金

  • So where does it take us?

    於是這告訴我們甚麼?

  • We're not doing a great job managing money.

    我們在理財上做得也不是很好

  • Behavioral finance is really a combination

    行為經濟學實際上

  • of psychology and economics,

    是心理學和經濟學的一個綜合

  • trying to understand

    讓我們瞭解

  • the money mistakes people make.

    為甚麼人們在金錢問題上會犯錯

  • And I can keep standing here

    我可以站在這裡

  • for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left

    用我剩下的12分鐘53秒

  • and make fun of all sorts of ways

    把我們理財用的各種方法

  • we manage money,

    當作笑話講給各位聼

  • and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"

    到最後你會問,“我們怎樣幫助人們?”

  • And that's what I really want to focus on today.

    所以我今天真正想關注的是

  • How do we take an understanding

    我們如何理解

  • of the money mistakes people make,

    人們在金錢問題上犯的錯誤

  • and then turning the behavioral challenges

    以及怎樣把行為性挑戰

  • into behavioral solutions?

    轉化為行為性的解決方案?

  • And what I'm going to talk about today

    我今天要談的

  • is Save More Tomorrow.

    是為明天節省更多

  • I want to address the issue

    我要討論的

  • of savings.

    是存錢這個問題

  • We have on the screen

    在屏幕上

  • a representative sample

    有具有代表性的

  • of 100 Americans.

    100個美國人

  • And we're going to look at their saving behavior.

    我們來看看他們的儲蓄習慣

  • First thing to notice is,

    第一件需要注意的事情是

  • half of them

    他們中一半的人

  • do not even have access

    都沒有參加

  • to a 401(k) plan.

    401(k)退休福利計劃

  • They cannot make savings easy.

    存錢對他們來説很不容易

  • They cannot have money go away from their paycheck

    他們不能把錢從他們的支票

  • into a 401(k) plan

    押到進入401(k)計劃裏

  • before they see it,

    他們一看到錢就花

  • before they can touch it.

    一摸到錢就花

  • What about the remaining half of the people?

    那麼剩下的一半人呢?

  • Some of them elect not to save.

    一些人傾向於不存款

  • They're just too lazy.

    他們只是太懶了

  • They never get around to logging into a complicated website

    他們從沒有登入過一個複雜一點的網站

  • and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.

    點擊17下加入401(k)計劃

  • And then they have to decide how they're going to invest

    當他們決定他們要去投資的時候

  • in their 52 choices,

    在他們的52個選擇裡

  • and they never heard about what is a money market fund.

    他們從未聽說過基金

  • And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.

    他們覺得太複雜了於是就沒加入

  • How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?

    最終有多少人向該計劃存款?

  • One third of Americans.

    只有三分之一的美國人

  • Two thirds are not saving now.

    三分之二都不存款

  • Are they saving enough?

    他們存得夠多嗎?

  • Take out those

    除去那些

  • who say they save too little.

    說自己存的太少的人

  • One out of 10

    十分之一的人

  • are saving enough.

    覺得自己存款夠了

  • Nine out of 10

    十分之九

  • either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,

    有的不能徹底執行401(k)計劃存到退休金

  • decide not to save -- or don't decide --

    所以決定不存或是下不了決定

  • or save too little.

    有的則是存得太少

  • We think we have a problem

    對於那些存款太多的人

  • of people saving too much.

    我們覺得也有一些問題

  • Let's look at that.

    我們來看這裡

  • We have one person --

    有一個人-

  • well, actually we're going to slice him in half

    其實我們要把他切成一半

  • because it's less than one percent.

    因為小於百分之一

  • Roughly half a percent of Americans

    差不多只有百分之零點五的美國人

  • feel that they save too much.

    認為他們存得夠多了

  • What are we going to do about it?

    我們對此能做甚麼呢?

  • That's what I really want to focus on.

    以下就是我真正想要關注的

  • We have to understand

    我們必須先明白

  • why people are not saving,

    為甚麼人們不去存款

  • and then we can hopefully flip

    接著我們才能

  • the behavioral challenges

    把行為性挑戰

  • into behavioral solutions,

    轉化為行為性解決方案

  • and then see how powerful it might be.

    並看看這會有多大效果

  • So let me divert for a second

    所以接下來讓我稍微轉移一下話題

  • as we're going to identify the problems,

    因爲我們必須要認清問題

  • the challenges, the behavioral challenges,

    我們面對的挑戰,行為性挑戰

  • that prevent people from saving.

    去找出阻止人們存錢的原因

  • I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.

    我要轉移到下一個話題,來談談香蕉和巧克力

  • Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.

    假設下一周我們有另一場非常棒的TED活動

  • And during the break

    休息期間

  • there would be a snack

    將會有零食供應

  • and you could choose bananas or chocolate.

    你可以選擇香蕉或是巧克力

  • How many of you think you would like to have bananas

    你們中有多少人覺得你會在

  • during this hypothetical TED event next week?

    下週假想的晚會中選擇香蕉?

  • Who would go for bananas?

    誰會選擇香蕉?

  • Wonderful.

    不錯

  • I predict scientifically

    我科學地預測一下

  • 74 percent of you will go for bananas.

    百分之七十四的人會選擇香蕉

  • Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.

    這至少是一個權威的科學研究預測的

  • And then count down the days

    接著我們倒數日子

  • and see what people ended up eating.

    最後來看看人們最後到底吃了些甚麼

  • The same people that imagined themselves

    一個禮拜之後

  • eating the bananas

    那些認為

  • ended up eating chocolates

    他們會吃香蕉的人

  • a week later.

    最終都選擇了巧克力

  • Self-control

    自制力

  • is not a problem in the future.

    在未來來説並不是一個問題

  • It's only a problem now

    當巧克力離我們很近的時候

  • when the chocolate is next to us.

    自制力就會有問題了

  • What does it have to do with time and savings,

    這種瞬間的喜悅

  • this issue of immediate gratification?

    和我們時間以及儲蓄有甚麼關聯?

  • Or as some economists call it, present bias.

    或者就像一些經濟學家所講的,現在狀態的偏見

  • We think about saving. We know we should be saving.

    我們想著如何儲蓄,我們知道我們應該存錢

  • We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.

    我們知道明年我們會做,但是今天就讓我們花錢吧

  • Christmas is coming,

    聖誕節要來了

  • we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.

    我們最好給我們認識的人買很多禮物

  • So this issue of present bias

    所以“現在狀態的偏見”

  • causes us to think about saving,

    導致我們考慮儲蓄

  • but end up spending.

    最後卻把錢花掉了

  • Let me now talk

    讓我現在來講

  • about another behavioral obstacle to saving

    另一個關於儲蓄的行為性障礙

  • having to do with inertia.

    這和慣性有關

  • But again, a little diversion

    再一次,小小地轉移話題

  • to the topic of organ donation.

    到器官捐獻上

  • Wonderful study comparing different countries.

    有一份很完美的研究比較了不同國家之間的情況

  • We're going to look at two similar countries,

    我們來看兩個相似的國家

  • Germany and Austria.

    德國和奧地利

  • And in Germany,

    在德國

  • if you would like to donate your organs --

    如果你想要捐贈你的器官-

  • God forbid something really bad

    上帝會禁止一些非常壞的事情

  • happens to you --

    發生在你的身上

  • when you get your driving license or an I.D.,

    當你拿到你的駕照或是一個ID卡

  • you check the box saying,

    勾選一個小方格

  • "I would like to donate my organs."

    “我願意捐贈我的器官”

  • Not many people like checking boxes.

    不太多人願意勾選小方格

  • It takes effort. You need to think.

    這要花費力氣,你需要想

  • Twelve percent do.

    百分之十二的人會去勾選

  • Austria, a neighboring country,

    在鄰國奧地利

  • slightly similar, slightly different.

    有點相同而又有點不同

  • What's the difference?

    有甚麼不同?

  • Well, you still have choice.

    嗯,你還是可以選擇的

  • You will decide

    你會選

  • whether you want to donate your organs or not.

    是否希望捐贈器官

  • But when you get your driving license,

    但當你得到你的駕照

  • you check the box

    你要勾選一個方格

  • if you do not want to donate your organ.

    “如果你不想要捐贈你的器官”

  • Nobody checks boxes.

    基本上沒有人勾這項

  • That's kind of too much effort.

    這太費力氣了

  • One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.

    只有百分之一的人勾選,剩下的人甚麼都沒做

  • Doing nothing is very common.

    放著不做是通常會發生的行為

  • Not many people check boxes.

    沒幾個人勾選方格

  • What are the implications

    拯救生命

  • to saving lives

    和捐贈器官之間

  • and having organs available?

    有什麽關聯?

  • In Germany, 12 percent check the box.

    在德國,百分之十二的人勾選這個格子

  • Twelve percent are organ donors.

    於是只有百分之十二的人成為器官捐贈者

  • Huge shortage of organs,

    導致了巨大的器官短缺

  • God forbid, if you need one.

    當你需要時上帝會禁止

  • In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.

    在奧地利,沒有人勾選這個方格

  • Therefore, 99 percent of people

    於是,百分之九十九的人

  • are organ donors.

    都是器官捐贈者

  • Inertia, lack of action.

    慣性,缺乏行動

  • What is the default setting

    原始狀態會是什麽

  • if people do nothing,

    如果人們甚麼都不做?

  • if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?

    如果他們一直拖延,如果他們不勾選方格?

  • Very powerful.

    這是非常有效的

  • We're going to talk

    我們即將講到

  • about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared

    如果人們覺得難以應付或害怕

  • to make their 401(k) choices.

    去加入401(k)計劃

  • Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,

    我們是讓他們自動加入計劃

  • or are they going to be left out?

    還是就放任不管?

  • In too many 401(k) plans,

    在太多的計劃之中

  • if people do nothing,

    如果人們甚麼都不做

  • it means they're not saving for retirement,

    如果他們不勾選方格

  • if they don't check the box.

    意味著他們並沒有在儲存退休金

  • And checking the box takes effort.

    當然勾選方格需要付出努力

  • So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.

    以上我們談了幾項行為性挑戰

  • One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,

    在談解決方案之前我們還要再講一個例子

  • having to do with monkeys and apples.

    是關於猴子和蘋果的例子

  • No, no, no, this is a real study

    不不不,這是一個真實的研究

  • and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.

    這和行為經濟學有很大關係

  • One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.

    一群猴子得到一個蘋果,他們很開心

  • The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.

    另外一群猴子得到兩個蘋果,其中一個被拿走了

  • They still have an apple left.

    他們仍然有一個蘋果

  • They're really mad.

    不過他們非常生氣

  • Why have you taken our apple?

    “你為甚麼拿走我們的蘋果?”

  • This is the notion of loss aversion.

    這就叫做對於失去的厭惡感

  • We hate losing stuff,

    我們憎恨失去東西

  • even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.

    即使這並不意味著很高風險

  • You would hate to go to the ATM,

    你不會喜歡去自動提款機提款時

  • take out 100 dollars

    提出100美金以後

  • and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.

    發現你丟失了其中一張20元的鈔票

  • It's very painful,

    即使這沒什麽大不了

  • even though it doesn't mean anything.

    但這卻很令人痛苦

  • Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.

    用這20美金本來可以吃一頓午餐