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  • It's Monday morning.

    某個星期一早上

  • In Washington,

    在華盛頓

  • the president of the United States

    美國總統

  • is sitting in the Oval Office,

    坐在白宮橢圓形辦公室裡

  • assessing whether or not

    評估是否

  • to strike Al Qaeda

    要攻擊在葉門的

  • in Yemen.

    蓋達組織

  • At Number 10 Downing Street,

    在唐寧街十號

  • David Cameron is trying to work out

    大衛卡麥隆(英國首相)試圖要理清

  • whether to cut more public sector jobs

    是否縮編公營事業的工作機會

  • in order to stave off a double-dip recession.

    以避免二次經濟衰退

  • In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez

    在馬德里,一位叫做Maria Gonzalez的母親

  • is standing at the door,

    站在門前

  • listening to her baby crying and crying,

    聽著她的嬰兒不停的哭

  • trying to work out whether she should let it cry

    在想她該讓這孩子繼續哭

  • until it falls asleep

    直到他睡去

  • or pick it up and hold it.

    還是該把他抱起來哄哄他

  • And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,

    而我在醫院,坐在我父親的病床旁

  • trying to work out

    正在想

  • whether I should let him drink

    我是否該讓他喝

  • the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water

    這一瓶1.5公升的水

  • that his doctors just came in and said,

    因為醫生進來說

  • "You must make him drink today," --

    "你今天一定要逼他喝"

  • my father's been nil by mouth for a week --

    我父親已經一星期無法進食了

  • or whether, by giving him this bottle,

    如果我給他喝這瓶水

  • I might actually kill him.

    我會不會害死他

  • We face momentous decisions

    我們面對很多重大的決定

  • with important consequences

    而且結果都很重要

  • throughout our lives,

    在我們的生活中

  • and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.

    我們有策略去處理這些決定

  • We talk things over with our friends,

    我們和朋友討論

  • we scour the Internet,

    我們瀏覽網路

  • we search through books.

    我們尋找書本

  • But still,

    但是

  • even in this age

    在這個充斥

  • of Google and TripAdvisor

    Google和TripAdvisor

  • and Amazon Recommends,

    還有Amazon推薦的時代

  • it's still experts

    專家依然是

  • that we rely upon most --

    我們最常依賴的對象

  • especially when the stakes are high

    特別是當風險很高

  • and the decision really matters.

    需要做重大決定的時候

  • Because in a world of data deluge

    因為有大量的數據

  • and extreme complexity,

    和極端的複雜性

  • we believe that experts

    我們相信專家

  • are more able to process information than we can --

    比我們自己更能夠處理這些資訊

  • that they are able to come to better conclusions

    他們比較可以理出一個較好的結論

  • than we could come to on our own.

    比我們自己理出的結論還要好

  • And in an age

    這個時代

  • that is sometimes nowadays frightening

    現在有時令人感到害怕

  • or confusing,

    有時感到困惑

  • we feel reassured

    而我們的安全感來自於

  • by the almost parental-like authority

    可靠的消息來源

  • of experts

    就是專家

  • who tell us so clearly what it is

    他們能清楚的告訴我們

  • we can and cannot do.

    什麼可以做,什麼不能做

  • But I believe

    但我認為

  • that this is a big problem,

    這是一個大問題

  • a problem with potentially dangerous consequences

    因為這樣的後果充滿潛在的危險

  • for us as a society,

    對我們的社會

  • as a culture

    我們的文化

  • and as individuals.

    還有個人都有影響

  • It's not that experts

    專家並不是

  • have not massively contributed to the world --

    沒有為這個世界做出重大貢獻

  • of course they have.

    當然,他們貢獻許多

  • The problem lies with us:

    問題是在我們

  • we've become addicted to experts.

    我們盲從專家的意見

  • We've become addicted to their certainty,

    我們盲從他們的絕對性

  • their assuredness,

    他們的自信

  • their definitiveness,

    他們的確定性

  • and in the process,

    在此過程中

  • we have ceded our responsibility,

    我們交出了自己的責任

  • substituting our intellect

    讓他們取代我們的智慧

  • and our intelligence

    還有我們的資訊解讀能力

  • for their supposed words of wisdom.

    只為了盲從他們所謂的有智慧的話

  • We've surrendered our power,

    我們把自己的能力交付出去

  • trading off our discomfort

    企圖把我們自己

  • with uncertainty

    因為不確定發生的不安

  • for the illusion of certainty

    換成一種確定性的錯覺

  • that they provide.

    由專家提供的錯覺

  • This is no exaggeration.

    這絕不是誇張

  • In a recent experiment,

    在最近一個實驗裡

  • a group of adults

    我們將一群成年人

  • had their brains scanned in an MRI machine

    利用核磁共振造影器去掃描他們的大腦

  • as they were listening to experts speak.

    掃描同時,他們聆聽專家說話

  • The results were quite extraordinary.

    結果令人相當意想不到

  • As they listened to the experts' voices,

    當他們聽到專家的聲音

  • the independent decision-making parts of their brains

    他們大腦裡負責做重要決定的區塊

  • switched off.

    沒有在作用

  • It literally flat-lined.

    呈現平靜的腦波

  • And they listened to whatever the experts said

    不管專家說什麼他們都聽

  • and took their advice, however right or wrong.

    都參考他們的意見,不管對錯

  • But experts do get things wrong.

    但專家也會出錯的

  • Did you know that studies show

    你們知道嗎?有研究指出

  • that doctors misdiagnose

    醫生診斷時

  • four times out of 10?

    每10次會發生4次誤診

  • Did you know

    你們知道嗎?

  • that if you file your tax returns yourself,

    如果你自己申報納稅

  • you're statistically more likely

    統計上你比較可能

  • to be filing them correctly

    正確地填寫資料

  • than if you get a tax adviser

    比起一位稅務諮詢師

  • to do it for you?

    幫你填寫還要正確

  • And then there's, of course, the example

    然後當然還有這個例子

  • that we're all too aware of:

    我們都很注意

  • financial experts

    財經專家

  • getting it so wrong

    錯誤的解讀

  • that we're living through the worst recession

    導致我們正經歷自1930年代以來

  • since the 1930s.

    最嚴重的經濟衰退

  • For the sake of our health,

    為了我們的健康

  • our wealth

    我們的財富

  • and our collective security,

    和我們共同的安全

  • it's imperative that we keep

    我們必須保持

  • the independent decision-making parts of our brains

    大腦獨立作決策的區塊

  • switched on.

    是在作用的

  • And I'm saying this as an economist

    身為一位經濟學家我要說

  • who, over the past few years,

    在過去的幾年

  • has focused my research

    我專注在我的研究

  • on what it is we think

    有關我們的思考

  • and who it is we trust and why,

    還有我們信任誰,為什麼信任他們

  • but also --

    但是

  • and I'm aware of the irony here --

    我也意識到這有點諷刺

  • as an expert myself,

    我自己身為一位專家、

  • as a professor,

    一位教授、

  • as somebody who advises prime ministers,

    一位會提供首相建議、

  • heads of big companies,

    給公司老闆建議、

  • international organizations,

    提供國際組織建議的人

  • but an expert who believes

    但我也相信

  • that the role of experts needs to change,

    專家的角色需要改變

  • that we need to become more open-minded,

    我們對不同意見的接受度要更寬廣

  • more democratic

    更民主

  • and be more open

    也要更開放去看待

  • to people rebelling against

    反對我們

  • our points of view.

    意見的人

  • So in order to help you understand

    為了要讓你們更了解

  • where I'm coming from,

    我的領域

  • let me bring you into my world,

    我將帶你們了解

  • the world of experts.

    專家的世界

  • Now there are, of course, exceptions,

    不過當然有例外

  • wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.

    那種美好、提升知識的例外

  • But what my research has shown me

    但我的研究告訴我

  • is that experts tend on the whole

    專家都試著要

  • to form very rigid camps,

    建立一群死忠擁護者

  • that within these camps,

    這群擁護者

  • a dominant perspective emerges

    讓某觀點變成了主導

  • that often silences opposition,

    常讓反方的聲音因此消失

  • that experts move with the prevailing winds,

    專家就帶動一股流行

  • often hero-worshipping

    通常是英雄式的崇拜

  • their own gurus.

    崇拜他們自己的大師

  • Alan Greenspan's proclamations

    Alan Greenspan(前美國聯準會主席)的言論

  • that the years of economic growth

    說經濟成長

  • would go on and on,

    會持續好幾年

  • not challenged by his peers,

    他的言論在當時沒有被批評

  • until after the crisis, of course.

    直到發生金融危機

  • You see,

    看吧

  • we also learn

    我們也學到

  • that experts are located,

    專家會被侷限

  • are governed,

    會被影響

  • by the social and cultural norms

    受到社會和文化教條的規範

  • of their times --

    自己時代的規範

  • whether it be the doctors

    無論是醫生

  • in Victorian England, say,

    在維多利亞時期

  • who sent women to asylums

    說送婦女到收容所

  • for expressing sexual desire,

    是為減低性慾

  • or the psychiatrists in the United States

    或在美國的精神科醫生

  • who, up until 1973,

    直到1973年

  • were still categorizing homosexuality

    能把同性戀歸類為

  • as a mental illness.

    一種精神疾病

  • And what all this means

    這一切都表示了

  • is that paradigms

    這些準則

  • take far too long to shift,

    要花上很多時間去改變

  • that complexity and nuance are ignored

    原本被忽略的複雜性和細微差別

  • and also that money talks --

    不僅如此,有錢能使鬼推磨

  • because we've all seen the evidence

    我們都知道

  • of pharmaceutical companies

    那些製藥廠商

  • funding studies of drugs

    資助藥品的研究

  • that conveniently leave out

    所以很方便地

  • their worst side effects,

    掩飾掉藥品的副作用

  • or studies funded by food companies

    或是食品廠商贊助

  • of their new products,

    新開發的食品

  • massively exaggerating the health benefits

    過度誇大食品的健康療效

  • of the products they're about to bring by market.

    特別是正要上市的食品

  • The study showed that food companies exaggerated

    研究指出食品公司誇大了

  • typically seven times more

    七倍以上

  • than an independent study.

    和獨立研究比較的話

  • And we've also got to be aware

    我們也注意到

  • that experts, of course,

    專家也是會

  • also make mistakes.

    有出錯的時候

  • They make mistakes every single day --

    他們每天都會出錯

  • mistakes born out of carelessness.

    一個不小心就出錯了

  • A recent study in the Archives of Surgery

    最近的一項外科研究檔案

  • reported surgeons

    說明外科醫生

  • removing healthy ovaries,

    把病人健康的卵巢拿掉

  • operating on the wrong side of the brain,

    進行腦部手術開錯了位置

  • carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,

    開刀時開錯了手

  • elbow, eye, foot,

    開錯手肘、眼睛、腳

  • and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.

    也製造了思維上的錯誤

  • A common thinking error

    普遍的思維錯誤

  • of radiologists, for example --

    例如在放射科

  • when they look at CT scans --

    當他們在看CT掃描時

  • is that they're overly influenced

    都會過分受到

  • by whatever it is

    不管是

  • that the referring physician has said

    病人的前一位醫師所說的

  • that he suspects

    或是他懷疑的

  • the patient's problem to be.

    可能病因的影響

  • So if a radiologist

    所以如果一位放射科醫生

  • is looking at the scan

    看著那掃描片子

  • of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,

    是一位疑似肺炎病人的片子

  • what happens is that,

    他很可能

  • if they see evidence

    一看到片子上

  • of pneumonia on the scan,

    有肺炎的事實

  • they literally stop looking at it --

    他們直接停止看片子

  • thereby missing the tumor

    因而忽略了腫瘤

  • sitting three inches below

    在下方三英寸的地方

  • on the patient's lungs.

    長在病人的肺裡

  • I've shared with you so far

    目前我跟你們分享的

  • some insights into the world of experts.

    是專家領域裡的一些觀察

  • These are, of course,

    這些當然

  • not the only insights I could share,

    不只是一些我觀察到的

  • but I hope they give you a clear sense at least

    但我希望這能讓你們至少多點了解

  • of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,

    為何我們需要停止對專家唯命是從

  • why we need to rebel

    為何我們需要反制

  • and why we need to switch

    還有為何我們需要

  • our independent decision-making capabilities on.

    讓我們大腦獨立決策的能力作用

  • But how can we do this?

    但我們該怎麼做呢?

  • Well for the sake of time,

    因為時間的關係

  • I want to focus on just three strategies.

    我只談三種策略

  • First, we've got to be ready and willing

    第一:我們必須準備好而且有意願

  • to take experts on

    挑戰專家

  • and dispense with this notion of them

    但不要把專家的話當成

  • as modern-day apostles.

    宗教信仰的教條

  • This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.

    這不代表我們必須在

  • in every single subject,

    每個領域上拿博士學位

  • you'll be relieved to hear.

    聽到之後應該鬆了一口氣

  • But it does mean persisting

    但它確實意味著堅持

  • in the face of their inevitable annoyance

    在面對不可避免的煩惱時

  • when, for example,

    例如

  • we want them to explain things to us

    我們需要他們為我們解釋一些事情

  • in language that we can actually understand.

    用我們能了解的話語

  • Why was it that, when I had an operation,

    怎麼說呢,當我需要動手術

  • my doctor said to me,

    我的醫生跟我說

  • "Beware, Ms. Hertz,

    "Hertz小姐,要留意

  • of hyperpyrexia,"

    高熱症的發生"

  • when he could have just as easily said,

    但他其實能簡單的跟我說

  • "Watch out for a high fever."

    要留意是否發高燒?

  • You see, being ready to take experts on

    了解嗎,要挑戰專家

  • is about also being willing

    就是要有意願

  • to dig behind their graphs,

    去了解他們圖表的意義

  • their equations, their forecasts,

    他們的方程式、預測

  • their prophecies,

    他們的預言

  • and being armed with the questions to do that --

    要準備好問題問他們

  • questions like:

    像是問

  • What are the assumptions that underpin this?

    假設基準為何?

  • What is the evidence upon which this is based?

    證據是根據什麼得到的?

  • What has your investigation focused on?

    你們的調查重點是什麼?