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  • Would you like to know what's in our future?

    想知道我們的未來會是什麼樣子嗎?

  • What's going to happen tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now?

    明天會有什麼事情發生? 明年呢?甚至一千年後呢?

  • Well, you're not alone.

    嗯,不只你想知道答案。

  • Everyone from governments to militaries to industry leaders do, as well,

    這是政府每個人、軍方、 還有企業領導人都想知道的答案,

  • and they all employ people called futurists

    他們都雇用了那些叫做「未來主義者」的人,

  • who attempt to forecast the future.

    他們嘗試著預測未來。

  • Some are able to do this with surprising accuracy.

    有些人的預測甚至驚人的準確。

  • In the middle of the 20th century,

    在二十世紀中,

  • a think tank known as the RAND Corporation

    有一個德蘭公司的智囊團,

  • consulted dozens of scientists and futurists

    諮詢了很多科學家及未來主義者,

  • who together forecast many of the technologies

    他們一起預測很多現今我們

  • we take for granted today,

    認為理所當然的技術。

  • including artificial organs,

    包含人工器官、

  • the use of birth control pills,

    避孕藥的使用、

  • and libraries able to look up research material for the reader.

    及圖書館提供讀者檢索研究資料的服務。

  • One way futurists arrive at their predictions

    有一種未來主義者達到他們預測的方法

  • is by analyzing movements and trends in society,

    是分析社會的變遷與趨勢,

  • and charting the paths they are likely to follow into the future

    然後詳細記錄它們在不同程度的可能性

  • with varying degrees of probability.

    未來可能跟從的路徑。

  • Their work informs the decisions of policymakers and world leaders,

    他們的工作告訴了決策者 及世界領袖們要做的決定,

  • enabling them to weigh options for the future

    使他們能夠為未來的選擇做衡量,

  • that otherwise could not have been imagined in such depth or detail.

    不然他們無法想像到一定的深度與細節。

  • Of course, there are obvious limits to how certain anyone can be about the future.

    任何人對於未來的把握度 當然會有明顯的限制。

  • There are always unimaginable discoveries that arise

    世上總會出現讓人無法想像的發現

  • which would make no sense to anyone in the present.

    現在的我們可能認為這些發現不合理。

  • Imagine, for example,

    想像一下,舉個例子,

  • transporting a physicist from the middle of the 19th century

    將一個物理學家從十九世紀中

  • into the 21st.

    運送到二十一世紀。

  • You explain to him that a strange material exists, Uranium 235,

    你向他解釋有一個奇怪的物質存在著,叫做「鈾235」。

  • that of its own accord can produce enough energy to power an entire city

    它會自動產生足夠供應整座城市的能源,

  • or destroy it in one fell swoop.

    甚至一下子就能把它摧毀。

  • "How can such energy come from nowhere?" he would demand to know.

    而他會要求知道 「如此強大的能量為何會無中生有?」

  • "That's not science, that's magic."

    「這不是科學,這是魔法。」

  • And for all intents and purposes, he would be right.

    實際上,他可能是對的。

  • His 19th century grasp of science

    他於十九世紀對科學的理解

  • includes no knowledge of radioactivity or nuclear physics.

    並不包含放射性或核能物理學的知識。

  • In his day, no forecast of the future could have predicted X-rays,

    在他的年代,沒有人能預測未來能有X光

  • or the atom bomb,

    或是原子彈,

  • let alone the theory of relativity

    更不用說會有相對論

  • or quantum mechanics.

    或量子力學。

  • As Arthur C. Clarke has said,

    科幻小說家亞瑟‧克拉克曾說過

  • "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

    「任何夠先進的技術都跟魔術沒什麼兩樣。」

  • How can we prepare, then, for a future that will be as magical to us

    那麼,我們該如何為那看似 魔法世界的未來做準備呢?

  • as our present would appear to someone from the 19th century?

    就像來自十九世紀的人看現今的世界。

  • We may think our modern technology and advanced data analysis techniques

    我們可能會覺得現代科技與先進的數據分析技術

  • might allow us to predict the future with much more accuracy

    能讓我們能夠更準確的預測未來

  • than our 19th century counterpart,

    比起十九世紀那時候來說的話,

  • and rightly so

    會是這樣沒錯。

  • However, it's also true that our technological progress

    然而,科技的進步確實也伴隨著

  • has brought with it new increasingly complex and unpredictable challenges.

    前所未見的挑戰,越來越複雜且無法預料。

  • The stakes for future generations to be able to imagine the unimaginable

    要去想像難以想像的事物對未來世代來說

  • are higher than ever before.

    所含的風險比以前高的許多。

  • So the question remains:

    所以現在的問題是:

  • how do we do that?

    我們如何做到?

  • One promising answer has actually been with us since the 19th century

    一個很有展望的答案其實一直存在著, 自從十九世紀

  • and the Industrial Revolution

    以及那奠定現代世界

  • that laid the foundation for our modern world.

    基礎的工業革命。

  • During this time of explosive development and invention,

    這段期間,大量的開發與發明迅速激增,

  • a new form of literature, science fiction, also emerged.

    因而產生了一種新的文學形式──科幻小說。

  • Inspired by the innovations of the day, Jules Verne, H.G. Wells,

    當時的創新啟發了凡爾納、威爾斯 (現代科幻小說的開山宗師)

  • and other prolific thinkers explored fantastic scenarios,

    和其他豐富思想家去探究許多不真實的情境,

  • depicting new frontiers of human endeavor.

    描繪出人類探索的新邊界。

  • And throughout the 20th century and into the 21st,

    從一開始的二十世紀進入到二十一世紀,

  • storytellers have continued to share their visions of the future

    故事作家們一直分享著他們對未來的看法,

  • and correctly predicted many aspects of the world we inhabit decades later.

    並正確的預測到許多見解 關於幾十年後我們所居的世界。

  • In "Brave New World,"

    在【美麗新世界】這本書中,

  • Aldous Huxley foretold the use of antidepressants in 1932,

    作者奧爾德斯‧赫胥黎在1932年 預言了抗憂鬱劑的使用,

  • long before such medication became popular.

    那時,還要好長一段時間才被廣為人知。

  • In 1953, Ray Bradbury's "Fahrenheit 451," forecast earbuds,

    1953年,在雷‧布萊伯利的書 【華氏451度】預言了耳機,

  • "thimble radios," in his words.

    「海貝耳機」在書中他這麼寫。

  • And in "2001: A Space Odyssey,"

    而在【2001:太空漫遊】中,

  • Arthur C. Clarke described a portable, flat-screen news pad in 1968.

    亞瑟‧克拉克在1968年 描述了一個可攜式的電子書平板。

  • In works that often combine entertainment and social commentary,

    常結合娛樂與社會評論的作品鼓勵我們

  • we are invited to suspend our disbelief and consider the consequences

    停止懷疑並認真去想已根深蒂固

  • of radical shifts in familiar and deeply engrained institutions.

    而熟知的傳統風俗若有了極端的變化, 後果會是什麼?

  • In this sense,

    這麼說來,

  • the best science fiction fulfils the words of philosopher Michel Foucault,

    最佳的科幻小說完整了哲學家米歇爾‧福柯的話;

  • "I'm no prophet. My job is making windows where there were once walls."

    「我不是預言家。我的工作是為曾經是牆的地方製作窗戶。」

  • Free from the constraints of the present and our assumptions of what's impossible,

    擺脫現在的束縛 及我們對不可能的事所做的假定,

  • science fiction serves as a useful tool for thinking outside of the box.

    科幻小說是個很有用的工具, 它讓我們跳脫框架。

  • Many futurists recognize this,

    很多未來主義者了解了這一點,

  • and some are beginning to employ science fictions writers in their teams.

    有些甚至雇用了科幻小說家加入他們的團隊。

  • Just recently, a project called iKnow proposed scenarios

    直到最近,有一個計畫叫做 iKnow,提出了許多

  • that look much like science fiction stories.

    科幻小說中會出現的情境。

  • They include the discovery of an alien civilization,

    內容包含了外星文明的發現、

  • development of a way for humans and animals to communicate flawlessly,

    發展出一個能讓人類與動物溝通無礙的方式、

  • and radical life extension.

    以及延續生命的極致。

  • So, what does the future hold?

    所以,未來到底有什麼?

  • Of course, we can't know for certain,

    當然,我們沒辦法確定,

  • but science fiction shows us many possibilities.

    但科幻小說透露出了很多可能性。

  • Ultimately, it is our responsibility

    終究,我們的責任

  • to determine which we will work towards making a reality.

    是去決定何種可能性是我們該努力實現的。

Would you like to know what's in our future?

想知道我們的未來會是什麼樣子嗎?

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED-Ed 小說 預測 主義 克拉克 可能性

【TED-Ed】科技發展變幻莫測?小說早就寫好劇情了 (How science fiction can help predict the future - Roey Tzezana)

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    吳D 發佈於 2016 年 04 月 17 日
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