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  • It's still unclear, when precisely the referendum on Britain's membership

    關於英國是否能保有歐盟會員資格的公投

  • of the European Union will take place.

    會在何時進行尚未明瞭。

  • David Cameron has still to agree the precise terms

    David Cameron 還是同意他的歐洲夥伴設立

  • of a new deal for Britain with his European partners.

    一個全新處理英國議題的明確方案。

  • So, the referendum could take place in the summer,

    所以,公投可能會在今年夏天舉行,

  • maybe in the autumn, or maybe even a lot later,

    或是秋天,或者更久以後,

  • because Janan Ganesh, our political commentator,

    因為, Janan Ganesh ,我們的政治評論家,

  • you have a slightly different take on whether we should be having a referendum at all at this time.

    你有個比較不同的觀點,關於這次是否該不該舉行公投。

  • Well, people are obsessed about whether it's gonna be June, whether it's gonna be September,

    嗯,人們極度關注它會在六月或是九月舉行,

  • whether it can conceivably be next summer.

    或是它可能會在明天夏天才舉行。

  • I think the problem with timing, is that we're not doing this maybe a decade from now.

    我想時間點會是一個問題,是因為十年前我們不會做這種事。

  • There is so much uncertainty about the future direction of the European Union, and how Britain relates to it.

    對於歐盟未來的走向以及應英國在這之中的關係有太多的不確定性,

  • That really, we have no sense of what we're voting to stay in, or get out of,

    那真的是,我們根本不知道我們投票支持留下或退出的是甚麼,

  • and the principal example, that I talked about this week in the column,

    而最只要的例子,我這週在專欄提過,

  • is eurozone integration. It is not impossible that within a decade the eurozone becomes the real EU in all but name.

    是歐元區的整合。在十年內歐元區變成真正的歐洲聯盟,國名名存實亡不是不可能。

  • It becomes the effective, decision-making caucus for things like economic and financial regulation.

    它變成有效率的決策組織,專門針對經濟或金融制裁等議題。

  • But that's what David Cameron thought was going to happen

    但是這就是 David Cameron 在2012年最危急的時刻

  • at the height of the crisis in 2012,

    覺得會發生的事,

  • and one of the reasons he called for a referendum.

    也是他會聲張需要公投的原因之一。

  • Absolutely, and the government tried very hard to protect Britain

    完全正確,而且正負非常努力地在保護英國

  • in the event of that integration, so there were very complicated double majorities introducing bits of banking policies,

    在那次整合的事件中,所以當時對於銀行政策有非常複雜的兩派立場,

  • so that has to be a majority of non-euro countries as well as euro countries for certain policies.

    所以非歐元國家是一個大勢力,歐元國家面對某些特定的政策也是。

  • Now that eurozone integration hasn't happened yet, but I think that's mainly because of

    所以現在歐元區整合還沒發生,但我想這主要是因為

  • the sheer slog of getting any of these constitutional and institutional changes in the EU.

    改變這歐盟的些組織和制度正如火如荼的衝擊著。

  • Give it several years, I think there's a chance, maybe in the form of a new treaty,

    再給他幾年,我想是會有機會的,互許以一個新的條約的方式,

  • that something like that emerges to secure what has been an unstable currency of the past five years.

    類似的狀況出現,得以鞏固過去五年動盪的貨幣。

  • Well, we are where we are, but I think the other interesting historical perspective that you gave this week, Janan,

    我們現在還沒到那個階段,但我想,你這週提到的其他有趣的歷史論點,Janan,

  • is that actually the referendum, the first referendum that we had in 1975,

    是公投,1975年的第一個公投,

  • still flush with EU membership in '73, should've taken place in the mid-1980s, when we had the big push to the single market.

    還充斥著1973年的歐盟會員資格,應該要再1980年代中期,當單一市場受到衝擊的時候舉行。

  • Tell us a bit more about that.

    告訴我們多一點。

  • Well, 1986 was a far more important year in Britain's relationship with Europe than 1975 was.

    1986年對英國和歐洲的關係遠比1975年重要的多。

  • In '86, Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of the time, signed the Single European Act,

    在1986年,柴契爾夫人,當時的總理,簽署了單一歐洲法案,

  • which began the single market as we know it, perhaps as we know it now.

    為單一市場,或許是我們現在熟知的單一市場,拉開序幕。

  • It introduced more qualified majority voting, reduced vetos, eroded national sovereignty for the sake of this internal market.

    它介紹更多多數決的權力,刪減了否決權,侵蝕了網路市場的國家主權。

  • That was a much bigger decision point for this country, and there wasn't a referendum.

    那是一個對這個國家來說很大的決定,而當時並沒有公投。

  • In 1975, a much more limited European economic community we'd only been in for two years, and we did have a referendum.

    1975年,一個才兩歲,受到更多限制的歐洲經濟體卻有了公投。

  • So we've got the timing wrong I think, already.

    所以我想我們已經把時間點弄錯了。

  • And I worry that if we're a decade early last time, we're a decade early this time.

    而且我擔心如果上次我們早了十年,這次我們也早了十年。

  • But we are where we are as I was saying,

    但究係我剛剛說的,我們現在到了甚麼階段我們就是在甚麼階段上。

  • so David Cameron, where, how do you says his chances of securing here, and yes, at this particular moment,

    所以 David Cameron ,你怎麼看他鞏固這裡的機會,在這個特定的時刻。

  • and where is the balance of opinion in Britain?

    英國的平衡點又在哪裡?

  • Some of it hinges on the quality of the deal, that he extracts in February the 18th, the 19th,

    有些要看協議的質量,他在2月18、19號摘錄的,

  • when there's a European Summit.

    在歐洲高峰會議上。

  • So, no more closer union, a bit of a crack down on benefits from migrants,

    所以沒有更近的聯盟,對移民的利益嚴加控管,

  • and some guarantees of protection against that eurozone integration that you talked about earlier.

    而你稍早提到,對於歐元區整合的抗議聲浪。

  • Well, this is where he has a problem.

    嗯,這就是他有麻煩的地方了。

  • The area of renegotiation that matters most to this country's strategic interests

    重新商議的空間對這個國家戰略上的利益有著重要的地位。

  • which is protecting non-euro countries within the EU,

    可以保護歐盟的非歐元區。

  • so we don't just become a rubber-stamp.

    所以不會不經審查就批准。

  • Is not the area of renegotiation that matters to voters, which is migration,

    對於選民來說重要的不是重新商議的空間,是移民,

  • and if you look at the preliminary deal he agreed with Donald Tusk, the Council President,

    如果你注意他和 Donald Tusk ,會議主席,最初的協定,

  • the government is clearly prioritised winning staff back on migration, and fair play, they've done quite a bit of that.

    政府很明顯的優先利用移民把員工贏回來,公平來說,他們做了很多這樣的事。

  • But they haven't concentrated quite the same diplomatic capital

    但是他們沒有集中同樣多的外交資本

  • on the technical work of protecting non-euro countries in the EU.

    在技術上保護歐盟非歐元國家這方面。

  • So I think his chances of winning the referendum are reasonable.

    所以我合理覺得他有贏得此次公投的機會。

  • He's got something on migrants.

    他對移民有一套。

  • My worry is will voters stay in, and then find ourselves in a very invidious position within several years.

    我擔憂的是會不會選民會留下來,並在幾年內發現我們身處一個不公平的環境。

  • So, David Cameron's chances of securing an in-vote, remain-vote in the European Union

    所以 David Cameron 在歐盟保留原票數以及獲得新票源的機會

  • are somewhat better than Arsenal's chances of winning the Premier League, is that what you think?

    在某方面來說比 Arsenal 贏得超級聯賽還高囉? 你是這樣覺得嗎?

  • Sadly, much much better.

    很難過的,高非常多。

  • Thank you very much, Janan Ganesh.

    非常謝謝你 Janan Ganesh 。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

It's still unclear, when precisely the referendum on Britain's membership

關於英國是否能保有歐盟會員資格的公投

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英國如何在歐盟中無能為力? (How UK could end up powerless in EU | FT Comment)

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    Vanessa Hsieh 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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