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  • Do we live in a borderless world?

    我們是生活在一個沒有國界的世界嗎?

  • Before you answer that, have a look at this map.

    回答這問題前,請先看看這張地圖:

  • Contemporary political map shows

    當今的政治地圖顯示

  • that we have over 200 countries in the world today.

    我們的世界超過200個國家,

  • That's probably more than at any time in centuries.

    這可能是好幾世紀以來國家數目最多的時期,

  • Now, many of you will object.

    或許很多人會表示反對。

  • For you this would be a more appropriate map.

    對於你們來說這可能是較適當的地圖。

  • You could call it TEDistan.

    你可以稱它為TED國圖,

  • In TEDistan, there are no borders,

    在TED國圖上沒有任何國界,

  • just connected spaces and unconnected spaces.

    只有相連和沒有相連的空間。

  • Most of you probably reside in one of the 40 dots

    大部分在場的人可能住在螢幕上

  • on this screen, of the many more

    其中四十個亮點之一,

  • that represent 90 percent of the world economy.

    它們代表了九成的世界經濟體。

  • But let's talk about the 90 percent of the world population

    但我們來談談那九成

  • that will never leave the place in which they were born.

    永遠不會離開他們出生地的人們

  • For them, nations, countries, boundaries, borders still matter a great deal,

    對他們來說,民族、國家、邊界和國界仍相當重要,

  • and often violently.

    甚至生死相關的重要。

  • Now here at TED, we're solving some of the great

    在TED,我們試圖解決

  • riddles of science and mysteries of the universe.

    一些在科學和宇宙中的重大謎團。

  • Well here is a fundamental problem we have not solved:

    在這裡就有個我們還沒解決的根本問題:

  • our basic political geography.

    我們最基本的政治地理。

  • How do we distribute ourselves around the world?

    我們在世界各地是怎麼分布的?

  • Now this is important, because border conflicts

    這相當重要,因為邊界上的爭鬥

  • justify so much of the world's military-industrial complex.

    往往合理化當今許多軍事/武器產業體系。

  • Border conflicts can derail

    邊界衝突會將

  • so much of the progress that we hope to achieve here.

    我們在那裡許多努力達到的社會進展化為烏有。

  • So I think we need a deeper understanding

    所以我想我們有必要更深層的思考

  • of how people, money, power,

    人、財富、權力、

  • religion, culture, technology

    宗教、文化和科技

  • interact to change the map of the world.

    如何交互作用以改變我們的世界地圖。

  • And we can try to anticipate those changes,

    我們可以試圖去為這些改變做準備,

  • and shape them in a more constructive direction.

    讓它們能往更有建設性的方向發展。

  • So we're going to look at some maps of the past,

    所以我們要看看一些過去的地圖、

  • the present and some maps you haven't seen

    現在的地圖和你從未見過的地圖

  • in order to get a sense of where things are going.

    來感受一下事情會怎麼樣發展。

  • Let's start with the world of 1945.

    我們先從1945年的世界開始吧!

  • 1945 there were just 100 countries in the world.

    1945年的時候世界上只有100個國家,

  • After World War II, Europe was devastated,

    而二戰後歐洲斷垣殘壁,

  • but still held large overseas colonies:

    但仍持有大量的海外殖民地:

  • French West Africa, British East Africa, South Asia, and so forth.

    法國有西非、英國有東非、南亞等等,

  • Then over the late '40s,

    到四零年代尾聲,

  • '50s, '60s, '70s and '80s,

    五、六、七和八零年代時,

  • waves of decolonization took place.

    各地區開始一波波的脫離殖民,

  • Over 50 new countries were born.

    超過五十個新國家在這時候誕生。

  • You can see that Africa has been fragmented.

    你可以看到非洲被分的很散碎,

  • India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South East Asian nations created.

    印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和一些東南亞國家生成。

  • Then came the end of the Cold War.

    再來就是冷戰結束,

  • The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

    冷戰結束和蘇聯的瓦解。

  • You had the creation of new states in Eastern Europe,

    在東歐我們看到一些新國家建立,

  • the former Yugoslav republics and the Balkans,

    原先的南斯拉夫和巴爾幹地區,

  • and the 'stans of central Asia.

    還有中亞的各個尾音是"斯坦"的國家

  • Today we have 200 countries in the world.

    今天我們世界上有兩百個國家,

  • The entire planet is covered

    整個地球都被

  • by sovereign, independent nation-states.

    有主權、獨立的國家覆蓋住。

  • Does that mean that someone's gain has to be someone else's loss?

    這是不是說一些人的得必然是另外一些人的失呢?

  • Let's zoom in on one of the most strategic areas of the world,

    我們把焦點放在世界上最有戰略意義的地方之一吧!

  • Eastern Eurasia.

    歐洲大陸東部。

  • As you can see on this map,

    如你所見,

  • Russia is still the largest country in the world.

    世界上最大的國家仍是俄羅斯,

  • And as you know, China is the most populous.

    也如你所知,中國是人口最多的,

  • And they share a lengthy land border.

    兩國共享一個相當長的邊界,

  • What you don't see on this map

    而你無法在這個地圖上看到的是

  • is that most of Russia's 150 million people

    在俄羅斯的1.5億人中大多數

  • are concentrated in its western provinces

    集中在俄羅斯的西部區域

  • and areas that are close to Europe.

    和鄰近歐洲的地區,

  • And only 30 million people are in its eastern areas.

    只有3千萬人住在其東部地區。

  • In fact, the World Bank predicts

    事實上,世界銀行預測

  • that Russia's population is declining

    俄羅斯的人口正在

  • towards about 120 million people

    往大約1.2億人下降。

  • And there is another thing that you don't see on this map.

    另外一個你在這張地圖所看不到的是:

  • Stalin, Khrushchev and other Soviet leaders

    史達林、克魯曉夫和其他前蘇聯領導人

  • forced Russians out to the far east

    曾經強迫俄羅斯人移居遠東地區

  • to be in gulags, labor camps,

    的古拉格、勞動集中營、

  • nuclear cities, whatever the case was.

    核試驗基地,等等。

  • But as oil prices rose,

    但隨著油價上漲

  • Russian governments have invested in infrastructure

    俄羅斯政府已開始投資建設基礎建設

  • to unite the country, east and west.

    來結合國家的東西橫向

  • But nothing has more perversely impacted

    這項政策對於俄羅斯的人口分布

  • Russia's demographic distribution,

    造成很大的影響,

  • because the people in the east, who never wanted to be there anyway,

    因為那些居住在東部的人,本來就不想住那裏,

  • have gotten on those trains and roads

    現在他們有了火車和馬路

  • and gone back to the west.

    就開始往西部遷移,

  • As a result, in the Russian far east today,

    那就是為什麼東部俄羅斯

  • which is twice the size of India,

    雖然是印度的兩倍大

  • you have exactly six million Russians.

    目前只有6萬俄羅斯人。

  • So let's get a sense of what is happening in this part of the world.

    所以我們可以看看這部分的世界正在發生甚麼事,

  • We can start with Mongolia, or as some call it, Mine-golia.

    我們先以蒙古開始,或者有些人稱它為 "礦"古 (英文音似Mine)

  • Why do they call it that?

    為什麼人們這麼稱呼它?

  • Because in Mine-golia, Chinese firms operate

    因為在蒙古,中國的公司運作

  • and own most of the mines -- copper, zinc, gold --

    並擁有大部份的礦井 - 鋁、鋅、黃金...

  • and they truck the resources south and east into mainland China.

    然後他們將這些礦產運往南部和東部到中國。

  • China isn't conquering Mongolia.

    中國不是在征服蒙古,

  • It's buying it.

    他在併購他。

  • Colonies were once conquered. Today countries are bought.

    殖民地曾經是被軍事攻占的,而現在的國家是被併購的。

  • So let's apply this principle to Siberia.

    所以我們來將此原則套用到西伯利亞:

  • Siberia most of you probably think of

    你們大部分想到西伯利亞應該是會想像

  • as a cold, desolate, unlivable place.

    一個既寒冷、荒蕪又不適合人類居住的地方。

  • But in fact, with global warming and rising temperatures,

    但事實上,因為全球暖化的溫度上升

  • all of a sudden you have vast wheat fields

    在當地突然有廣大的麥田

  • and agribusiness, and grain being produced in Siberia.

    和農業,稻穀在西伯利亞被生產。

  • But who is it going to feed?

    但這是要餵養誰呢?

  • Well, just on the other side of the Amo River,

    就是在漠河的另外一邊,

  • in the Heilongjiang and Harbin provinces of China,

    中國的黑龍江等省那裡

  • you have over 100 million people.

    我們有超過1億的人口,

  • That's larger than the entire population of Russia.

    這比整個俄羅斯的人口都要多。

  • Every single year, for at least a decade or more,

    至少十年的時間,每一年,

  • [60,000] of them have been voting with their feet,

    有六萬人會離開這地方,

  • crossing, moving north and inhabiting this desolate terrain.

    他們過境,往北移,移居到這個荒涼的地帶,

  • They set up their own bazaars and medical clinics.

    建立他們自己的市集和診所,

  • They've taken over the timber industry

    他們接管當地的伐木產業

  • and been shipping the lumber east, back into China.

    將木材往東運,運回中國。

  • Again, like Mongolia,

    就像蒙古,

  • China isn't conquering Russia. It's just leasing it.

    中國不是在征服俄羅斯,只是在租借它。

  • That's what I call globalization Chinese style.

    這是我所稱的中國式全球化。

  • Now maybe this is what the map of the region

    所以這是這個區域

  • might look like in 10 to 20 years.

    大概十或二十年後會長的樣子。

  • But hold on. This map is 700 years old.

    但等等! 這張地圖七百多歲了!

  • This is the map of the Yuan Dynasty,

    這是元朝的地圖,

  • led by Kublai Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan.

    在忽必烈(成吉思汗的孫子)掌權時的樣子。

  • So history doesn't necessarily repeat itself,

    所以歷史未必會重演,

  • but it does rhyme.

    但會循一定的模式重複發生

  • This is just to give you a taste of what's happening in this part of the world.

    這就是給你嘗嘗,在世界的這個角落在發生的事。

  • Again, globalization Chinese style.

    這又是中國式的全球化,

  • Because globalization opens up all kinds of ways for us to

    因為全球化給我們開啟很多機會

  • undermine and change the way we think about political geography.

    去顛覆並改變我們對於政治地理的了解。

  • So, the history of East Asia in fact,

    所以在中亞的歷史中,

  • people don't think about nations and borders.

    人們不太以國家和邊界來思考,

  • They think more in terms of empires and hierarchies,

    而是以朝代和統治者,

  • usually Chinese or Japanese.

    通常中國的或日本的。

  • Well it's China's turn again.

    好,現在我們再看看中國,

  • So let's look at how China is re-establishing

    看看中國如何重新在

  • that hierarchy in the far East.

    遠東地區建立那樣的統治,

  • It starts with the global hubs.

    這一切都起源於國際經貿中心,

  • Remember the 40 dots on the nighttime map

    記得剛剛那夜間地圖的四十個亮點嗎?

  • that show the hubs of the global economy?

    他指出的是在我們全球經濟體裡的經貿中心。

  • East Asia today has more of those global hubs

    東亞現在有更多這樣的經貿中心

  • than any other region in the world.

    甚過世界上任何一個地區。

  • Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai,

    東京、首爾、北京、上海、

  • Hong Kong, Singapore and Sidney.

    香港、新加坡、雪梨

  • These are the filters and funnels of global capital.

    這些都是全球資金的過濾網,

  • Trillions of dollars a year are being brought into the region,

    上以兆計的前每年都被帶入這些地區,

  • so much of it being invested into China.

    許多是投資到中國。

  • Then there is trade.

    再來有貿易,

  • These vectors and arrows represent ever stronger

    這些箭頭顯示的是中國

  • trade relationships that China has

    與當地其它國家

  • with every country in the region.

    愈來愈緊密的關係。

  • Specifically, it targets Japan

    最主要它瞄準日本、

  • and Korea and Australia,

    韓國和澳洲。

  • countries that are strong allies of the United States.

    與美國有深厚聯盟的國家。

  • Australia, for example, is heavily dependent

    比如說澳洲對於外銷

  • on exporting iron ore and natural gas to China.

    鐵礦和天然氣到中國有強烈的依賴性。

  • For poorer countries, China reduces tariffs

    對於較窮的國家,中國降低關稅,

  • so that Laos and Cambodia can sell their goods more cheaply

    這樣寮國和柬埔寨可以用更低廉的價格外銷產品,

  • and become dependent on exporting to China as well.

    而因此對產品出口到中國也產生依賴性。

  • And now many of you have been reading in the news

    相信你們很多人有在看新聞,

  • how people are looking to China

    看人們怎麼看待中國

  • to lead the rebound, the economic rebound, not just in Asia, but potentially for the world.

    將如何去領導經濟復甦,不只在亞洲,而是全世界。

  • The Asian free trade zone, almost free trade zone, that's emerging

    亞洲漸漸形成的自由貿易區,幾乎是自由貿易區,

  • now has a greater trade volume than trade across the Pacific.

    現在有比太平洋彼岸還大的經貿量,

  • So China is becoming the anchor of the economy in the region.

    所以中國已漸漸成為此地區的靠山。

  • Another pillar of this strategy is diplomacy.

    在這個策略之下另一個重點是外交,

  • China has signed military agreements with many countries in the region.

    中國與該地區許多國家簽訂了軍事協定,

  • It has become the hub of diplomatic institutions

    它已成為外交機構的中心,

  • such as the East Asian Community.

    比如說東亞的社區。

  • Some of these organizations don't even have

    有些這樣的組織會員甚至不包括

  • the United States as a member.

    美國。

  • There is a treaty of nonaggression between countries,

    各國之間建立了互不干涉條約,

  • such that if there were a conflict between China and the United States,

    假使中國與美國發生衝突,

  • most countries vow to just sit it out,

    大部分國家會宣誓中立,

  • including American allies like Korea and Australia.

    包括韓國和澳大利亞等美國盟友。

  • Another pillar of the strategy,

    在這策略的另一個重點,

  • like Russia, is demographic.

    像俄羅斯一樣,是人口。

  • China exports business people, nannies, students,

    中國向外輸出商人、保姆、學生、

  • teachers to teach Chinese around the region,

    和老師,在整個區域內教授中文,

  • to intermarry and to occupy ever greater

    彼此通婚,以及在各個經濟體中

  • commanding heights of the economies.

    佔據史無前例的主導性地位。

  • Already ethnic Chinese people

    已經可以看到中國人

  • in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia

    在馬來西亞、泰國和印尼等國家

  • are the real key factors and drivers

    成為了當地經濟不容忽視的

  • in the economies there.

    關鍵因素和推動力。

  • Chinese pride is resurgent in the region

    因此在這些地區,中國人的驕傲

  • as a result.

    再次復甦

  • Singapore, for example, used to ban Chinese language education.

    比如說新加坡曾經禁止學習中文,

  • Now it encourages it.

    現在他們鼓勵學習中文。

  • If you add it all up what do you get?

    如果你們把這些東西全部加起來你會得到甚麼結論?

  • Well, if you remember before World War II,

    如果你記得,二次世界大戰前,

  • Japan had a vision

    日本曾有一個願景,

  • for a greater Japanese co-prosperity sphere.

    想建立一個日本大東亞共榮圈。

  • What's emerging today is what you might call

    而現今正在漸漸浮現的你可以稱為

  • a greater Chinese co-prosperity sphere.

    中國大東亞共榮圈。

  • So no matter what the lines on the map tell you

    所以不管世界地圖如何告訴你這是

  • in terms of nations and borders,

    國家的邊界,

  • what you really have emerging in the far east

    在亞洲真正的狀況是,

  • are national cultures,

    國家的文化,

  • but in a much more fluid, imperial zone.

    但在一種更動態,帝國的趨向。

  • All of this is happening without firing a shot.

    這一切就自然而然的發生了,

  • That's most certainly not the case in the Middle East

    而在中東絕對不是這樣的狀態!

  • where countries are still very uncomfortable

    在那裏國家對於

  • in the borders left behind by European colonialists.

    歐洲殖民者遺留下來的國界還是相當不適應。

  • So what can we do to think about borders differently in this part of the world?

    所以我們在那個地方對於國界有甚麼樣的見解?

  • What lines on the map should we focus on?

    地圖上我們該注意哪些線?

  • What I want to present to you is what I call

    我想要給你看的是

  • state building, day by day.

    國家的建立,每日進度。

  • Let's start with Iraq.

    我們以伊拉克為起點吧!

  • Six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq,

    在美國入侵伊拉克之後的第六年,

  • the country still exists more on a map than it does in reality.

    這個國家在地圖上的存在,比現實還真實。

  • Oil used to be one of the forces holding Iraq together;

    石油曾經是維繫伊拉克的要素之一,

  • now it is the most significant cause of the country's disintegration.

    現在卻是此國家瓦解的重要原因。

  • The reason is Kurdistan.

    這原因是因為庫德斯坦;

  • The Kurds for 3,000 years

    庫德族三千年以來

  • have been waging a struggle for independence,

    就在爭取獨立,

  • and now is their chance to finally have it.

    而現在是他們獨立的契機。

  • These are pipeline routes, which emerge from Kurdistan,

    這些是從庫德斯坦出來的管線,

  • which is an oil-rich region.

    它們的區域富含石油。

  • And today, if you go to Kurdistan,

    而當今,如果你進入庫德斯坦,

  • you'll see that Kurdish Peshmerga guerillas

    你會看到庫德族的Peshmerga游擊隊

  • are squaring off against the Sunni Iraqi army.

    正在跟伊拉克的遜尼軍隊作戰。

  • But what are they guarding?

    但他們在守護甚麼?

  • Is it really a border on the map?

    真的是地圖上的邊界嗎?

  • No. It's the pipelines.

    不,是那些管線。

  • If the Kurds can control their pipelines, they can set the terms

    如果庫德人可以控制管線,他們就可以控制

  • of their own statehood.

    談他們國家建立的條件。

  • Now should we be upset about this, about the potential disintegration of Iraq?

    我們應該為伊拉克可能的瓦解擔憂嗎?

  • I don't believe we should.

    我並不認為。

  • Iraq will still be the second largest oil producer in the world,

    伊拉克仍會是世界上第二大產油國,

  • behind Saudi Arabia.

    第一是沙烏地阿拉伯,

  • And we'll have a chance to solve a 3,000 year old dispute.

    而我們有機會解決一個維持三千年的爭議。

  • Now remember Kurdistan is landlocked.

    注意,庫德斯坦四周皆是陸地,

  • It has no choice but to behave.

    它不得不守規矩

  • In order to profit from its oil

    為了能從石油獲益,

  • it has to export it through Turkey or Syria,

    它需將石油輸出到其它國家,如土耳其、敘利亞

  • and other countries, and Iraq itself.

    還有伊拉克本身,

  • And therefore it has to have amicable relations with them.

    所以它與這些國家的關係必須維持好。

  • Now lets look at a perennial conflict in the region.

    現在我們來看看此區另一個連年不斷的衝突,

  • That is, of course, in Palestine.

    這當然是指巴勒斯坦:

  • Palestine is something of a cartographic anomaly

    從地圖上看是一個畸形兒,