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  • Do you know how many choices you make

    你知道一天當中

  • in a typical day?

    你做了多少選擇嗎?

  • Do you know how many choices you make

    你知道一個星期之中

  • in typical week?

    你做了多少選擇嗎?

  • I recently did a survey

    最近,我做了一項調查

  • with over 2,000 Americans,

    對象是兩千名美國人

  • and the average number of choices

    那些美國人在一天之中

  • that the typical American reports making

    平均做了

  • is about 70 in a typical day.

    七十項選擇

  • There was also recently a study done with CEOs

    最近還有一項關於總裁的調查

  • in which they followed CEOs around for a whole week.

    在調查中,科學家跟著那些總裁整整一個星期

  • And these scientists simply documented all the various tasks

    這些科學家簡單地把那些總裁

  • that these CEOs engaged in

    參與的事情記錄下來

  • and how much time they spent engaging

    以及總裁在那些相關的事情中

  • in making decisions related to these tasks.

    花了多少時間做決定

  • And they found that the average CEO

    科學家從那些總裁中發現到

  • engaged in about 139 tasks in a week.

    他們在一周中平均會參與139件事情

  • Each task was made up of many, many, many sub-choices of course.

    每件事情都由許多選擇以及次要選擇所構成

  • 50 percent of their decisions

    有百分之五十的決定

  • were made in nine minutes or less.

    用了不到九分鐘的時間

  • Only about 12 percent of the decisions

    只有百分之十二的決定

  • did they make an hour or more of their time.

    他們花了一個小時以上的時間

  • Think about your own choices.

    想想看你自己的選擇

  • Do you know how many choices

    你知道你有多少選擇

  • make it into your nine minute category

    需要花費九分鐘

  • versus your one hour category?

    又有多少需要一小時呢?

  • How well do you think you're doing

    你覺得自己

  • at managing those choices?

    有多擅長做選擇呢?

  • Today I want to talk

    今天,我想和各位談論

  • about one of the biggest modern day choosing problems that we have,

    關於現代生活中我們碰到的最大問題

  • which is the choice overload problem.

    就是我們要做太多選擇了

  • I want to talk about the problem

    我想談論這些問題

  • and some potential solutions.

    以及一些可能的解決方法

  • Now as I talk about this problem,

    當我談論這個問題時

  • I'm going to have some questions for you

    我想先問你幾個問題

  • and I'm going to want to know your answers.

    然後我想知道你的答案

  • So when I ask you a question,

    當我問你一個問題

  • since I'm blind,

    由於我是盲人

  • only raise your hand if you want to burn off some calories.

    所以如果你舉手的話,只能因此消耗一些熱量

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Otherwise, when I ask you a question,

    因此,當我問你一個問題時

  • and if your answer is yes,

    如果你的答案是肯定的

  • I'd like you to clap your hands.

    請你拍手

  • So for my first question for you today:

    今天我的第一個問題是:

  • Are you guys ready to hear about the choice overload problem?

    你們大家都準備好聽關於「選擇過量」的問題了嗎?

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • Thank you.

    謝謝

  • So when I was a graduate student at Stanford University,

    當我還是史丹佛大學的研究生時

  • I used to go to this very, very upscale grocery store;

    我經常去一間非常高級的雜貨店

  • at least at that time it was truly upscale.

    至少在那個時候它是非常高級的

  • It was a store called Draeger's.

    那是一間叫「德瑞格」的店

  • Now this store, it was almost like going to an amusement park.

    現在這間店幾乎變成了一間遊樂場

  • They had 250 different kinds of mustards and vinegars

    他們有兩百五十種的黃芥茉和醋

  • and over 500 different kinds

    還有超過五百種不同的

  • of fruits and vegetables

    水果和蔬菜

  • and more than two dozen different kinds of bottled water --

    以及二十多種不同的瓶裝水

  • and this was during a time when we actually used to drink tap water.

    這還是在我們習慣喝水龍頭水的那個年代

  • I used to love going to this store,

    我以前很喜歡去這家店

  • but on one occasion I asked myself,

    但是有一次我問自己

  • well how come you never buy anything?

    為何你從來不買東西?

  • Here's their olive oil aisle.

    這裡是賣橄欖油的走道

  • They had over 75 different kinds of olive oil,

    他們有超過七十五種不同的橄欖油

  • including those that were in a locked case

    包含那些被鎖在櫃子裡

  • that came from thousand-year-old olive trees.

    用千年老橄欖樹製成的油

  • So I one day decided to pay a visit to the manager,

    因此,有一天我決定去見經理一面

  • and I asked the manager,

    我問他

  • "Is this model of offering people all this choice really working?"

    「這種提供大家所有選擇的行銷模式真的有用嗎?」

  • And he pointed to the busloads of tourists

    他以每天一車車前來的

  • that would show up everyday,

    遊客為例

  • with cameras ready usually.

    通常這些遊客也都準備了相機

  • We decided to do a little experiment,

    我們決定做一點小實驗

  • and we picked jam for our experiment.

    以果醬為實驗樣本

  • Here's their jam aisle.

    這裡是賣果醬走道

  • They had 348 different kinds of jam.

    他們有348種不同的果醬

  • We set up a little tasting booth

    我們設置了一些試吃攤

  • right near the entrance of the store.

    就在接近店門口的位置

  • We there put out six different flavors of jam

    我們在那裡放了六種

  • or 24 different flavors of jam,

    或是二十四種不同的果醬

  • and we looked at two things:

    然後我們觀察兩件事:

  • First, in which case

    第一,在哪一種情況下

  • were people more likely to stop, sample some jam?

    人們比較願意停下來試吃?

  • More people stopped when there were 24, about 60 percent,

    大部份的人在有二十四種果醬的時候停下來, 大約佔了百分之六十

  • than when there were six,

    而有六種果醬時

  • about 40 percent.

    則只有百分之四十的人停下來試吃

  • The next thing we looked at

    另一個部份,我們觀察

  • is in which case were people more likely

    在哪一種情況下

  • to buy a jar of jam.

    人們比較有可能買一罐果醬

  • Now we see the opposite effect.

    我們發現了相反的結果

  • Of the people who stopped when there were 24,

    當人們看到二十四種果醬停下來時

  • only three percent of them actually bought a jar of jam.

    只有百分之三的人真的買了一罐果醬

  • Of the people who stopped when there were six,

    而在只有六種果醬前停下來的人

  • well now we saw that 30 percent of them

    我們發現有百分之三十的人

  • actually bought a jar of jam.

    買了果醬

  • Now if you do the math,

    現在如果你試算看看

  • people were at least six times more likely to buy a jar of jam

    人們碰到六種果醬後購買的比率

  • if they encountered six

    遠高於碰到二十四種果醬的比率

  • than if they encountered 24.

    至少超過六倍之多

  • Now choosing not to buy a jar of jam

    現在選擇不買果醬

  • is probably good for us --

    對我們來說反而是一個好消息

  • at least it's good for our waistlines --

    -至少對我們的腰圍來說是好的-

  • but it turns out that this choice overload problem affects us

    但這也代表了過多選擇的問題

  • even in very consequential decisions.

    也影響了我們做許多重要的決定

  • We choose not to choose,

    我們選擇不去做選擇

  • even when it goes against our best self-interests.

    即使這件事與我們的最佳利益相左

  • So now for the topic of today: financial savings.

    因此,我們要談到今天的另一個主題:省錢。

  • Now I'm going to describe to you a study I did

    現在,我要向各位介紹一份

  • with Gur Huberman, Emir Kamenica, Wei Jang

    我和Gur Huberman, Emir Kamenica, Wei Jang共同完成的研究

  • where we looked at the retirement savings decisions

    這份研究裡,我們觀察了大約一百萬名美國人

  • of nearly a million Americans

    如何在

  • from about 650 plans

    全美的650種的退休儲蓄計畫中

  • all in the U.S.

    做選擇

  • And what we looked at

    在這個研究中我們想要了解的是

  • was whether the number of fund offerings

    人們在退休儲蓄計畫

  • available in a retirement savings plan,

    與401退休福利計畫中

  • the 401(k) plan,

    是否因為提供的資金多寡

  • does that affect people's likelihood

    而影響人們決定

  • to save more for tomorrow.

    是否為未來存更多錢

  • And what we found

    在這個研究中

  • was that indeed there was a correlation.

    我們發現這兩者確實有關聯性

  • So in these plans, we had about 657 plans

    因此在大約657個計畫中

  • that ranged from offering people

    包含了提供人們兩種到59種不同選擇

  • anywhere from two to 59 different fund offerings.

    的退休計畫裡

  • And what we found was that,

    我們發現的是

  • the more funds offered,

    提供的資金愈多

  • indeed, there was less participation rate.

    反而愈少人參與

  • So if you look at the extremes,

    因此當你看到圖片的起端

  • those plans that offered you two funds,

    那些只提供兩種資金選擇的計畫

  • participation rates were around in the mid-70s --

    人們的參與率大約是70%

  • still not as high as we want it to be.

    不如我們所期待的高參與率

  • In those plans that offered nearly 60 funds,

    而那些大約有60種不同資金選擇的計畫

  • participation rates have now dropped

    參與率下降至

  • to about the 60th percentile.

    大約60%

  • Now it turns out

    由此可知

  • that even if you do choose to participate

    即使有更多的選項

  • when there are more choices present,

    提供你選擇

  • even then, it has negative consequences.

    得到的反而是負面的結果

  • So for those people who did choose to participate,

    因此對那些最後選擇參與的人們來說

  • the more choices available,

    擁有愈多的選擇

  • the more likely people were

    反而造成人們避免購買

  • to completely avoid stocks or equity funds.

    股票或是類似的基金

  • The more choices available,

    愈多的選擇

  • the more likely they were

    人們反而更有可能選擇

  • to put all their money in pure money market accounts.

    將錢單純的存在帳戶裡

  • Now neither of these extreme decisions

    如果為人們未來的經濟情況著想

  • are the kinds of decisions

    這兩種極端的方式

  • that any of us would recommend for people

    都不會成為

  • when you're considering their future financial well-being.

    我們推薦給他人的選擇

  • Well, over the past decade,

    然而,在過去的十年裡

  • we have observed three main negative consequences

    我們觀察到提供人們愈來愈多的選擇

  • to offering people more and more choices.

    會產生三種主要的負面結果 (過多的選擇降低了…)

  • They're more likely to delay choosing --

    他們更容易延遲決定-- (投影片:準時遵守約定)

  • procrastinate even when it goes against their best self-interest.

    即使耽擱會影響他們的最佳利益

  • They're more likely to make worse choices --

    他們更有可能做錯決定-- (投影片:選擇的品質)

  • worse financial choices, medical choices.

    更糟的理財與醫療決定

  • They're more likely to choose things that make them less satisfied,

    他們更有可能選擇讓他們不太滿意的決定 (投影片:滿足感)

  • even when they do objectively better.

    即使客觀來說他們的選擇沒那麼不好

  • The main reason for this

    造成這種情況最主要的原因是

  • is because, we might enjoy gazing at those giant walls

    我們可能享受盯著那些巨大的城牆

  • of mayonnaises, mustards, vinegars, jams,

    像是美乃滋、黃芥茉、醋、果醬等等的東西

  • but we can't actually do the math of comparing and contrasting

    但是我們不可能真的一一比較

  • and actually picking from that stunning display.

    然後從其中挑選出一罐

  • So what I want to propose to you today

    因此,今天我想推薦

  • are four simple techniques --

    四種簡單的技巧-

  • techniques that we have tested in one way or another

    這些技巧都已經過我們一再的測試-

  • in different research venues --

    透過不同的研究場域

  • that you can easily apply

    讓你可以簡單的

  • in your businesses.

    運用在事業上

  • The first: Cut.

    第一:精簡

  • You've heard it said before,

    相信你之前早已聽過

  • but it's never been more true than today,

    「少即是多」這句話

  • that less is more.

    這個說法對現今社會來說再真切合適不過了

  • People are always upset when I say, "Cut."

    當我說「精簡」時,人們總是感到沮喪

  • They're always worried they're going to lose shelf space.

    他們總是擔心會失去陳列的空間

  • But in fact, what we're seeing more and more

    然而我們發現事實是

  • is that if you are willing to cut,

    如果你願意選擇精簡

  • get rid of those extraneous redundant options,

    捨去那些額外不必要的選項

  • well there's an increase in sales,

    你的銷售量就會增加

  • there's a lowering of costs,

    支出會減少

  • there is an improvement of the choosing experience.

    這裡有一項關於選擇而有所進展的故事

  • When Proctor & Gamble

    當寶僑公司(Proctor & Gamble )將26種不同的海倫仙度絲產品

  • went from 26 different kinds of Head & Shoulders to 15,

    精簡至15種時

  • they saw an increase in sales by 10 percent.

    他們發現銷售額增加了百分之十

  • When the Golden Cat Corporation

    當黃金貓公司(Golden Cat)捨棄了

  • got rid of their 10 worst-selling cat litter products,

    10種銷售量最差的商品

  • they saw an increase in profits

    他們的獲利成長了

  • by 87 percent --

    百分之八十七

  • a function of both increase in sales

    這是一個能夠增加銷售量

  • and lowering of costs.

    又減少支出的功效

  • You know, the average grocery store today

    你知道現在平均每一間雜貨店

  • offers you 45,000 products.

    提供四萬五千種商品

  • The typical Walmart today offers you 100,000 products.

    沃爾瑪(Walmart) 超市每天提供你十萬種商品

  • But the ninth largest retailer,

    然而現今世界上

  • the ninth biggest retailer in the world today

    第九大的零售商

  • is Aldi,

    阿爾迪超市(Aldi)

  • and it offers you only 1,400 products --

    只供應你一千四百種商品

  • one kind of canned tomato sauce.

    其中只包含一種蕃茄醬

  • Now in the financial savings world,

    在現今理財儲蓄的社會中

  • I think one of the best examples that has recently come out

    我想最好的例子是

  • on how to best manage the choice offerings

    最近由David Laibson 在哈佛大學進行的一項計畫

  • has actually been something that David Laibson was heavily involved in designing,

    這個計畫是關於

  • which was the program that they have at Harvard.

    如何用最好的方式來管理選擇

  • Every single Harvard employee

    每一位哈佛的教職員

  • is now automatically enrolled

    會自動被加入

  • in a lifecycle fund.

    一項人生規畫基金中

  • For those people who actually want to choose,

    對於那些真正想要選擇的人

  • they're given 20 funds,

    他們會有二十種不同的基金

  • not 300 or more funds.

    而非三百種或更多的選擇

  • You know, often, people say,

    人們總是說

  • "I don't know how to cut.

    「我不知道如何精簡,

  • They're all important choices."

    每一個都是很好的選擇。」

  • And the first thing I do is I ask the employees,

    因此,我對這些教職員詢問的第一個問題是:

  • "Tell me how these choices are different from one another.

    「告訴我這些選擇有什麼不同?

  • And if your employees can't tell them apart,

    如果你的教職員都無法分辨了

  • neither can your consumers."

    更別說是你的顧客了。」

  • Now before we started our session this afternoon,

    在我們開始這個活動之前

  • I had a chat with Gary.

    我和Gary有一段對話

  • And Gary said that he would be willing

    Gary告訴我他很樂意提供

  • to offer people in this audience

    在場的聽眾

  • an all-expenses-paid free vacation

    一個免費前往世界上

  • to the most beautiful road in the world.

    最漂亮的公路旅行的機會

  • Here's a description of the road.

    這是關於這條路的簡介

  • And I'd like you to read it.

    給各位參考

  • And now I'll give you a few seconds to read it

    現在我給大家一點時間來閱讀

  • and then I want you to clap your hands

    如果你想要得到Gary提供的機會請你拍手

  • if you're ready to take Gary up on his offer.

    (投影片:這條Stremnaya公路非常的漂亮,有壯麗的群山、懸崖和青草。由於這條公路的極佳景觀,結合了非常狹窄的路和極高的懸崖,因此也有人認為這條公路是世界上最危險的公路。*諷刺的是,公路的危險也成為了自1990年起,旅客最喜歡前往的地點。尤其是愛好山路的騎士將其視為最刺激的下坡道路。 *平均每個月會有兩台腳踏車會從路上摔下來。)

  • (Light clapping)

    (稀少的掌聲)

  • Okay. Anybody who's ready to take him up on his offer.

    有人想要得到這個機會嗎?

  • Is that all?

    這是全部了嗎?

  • All right, let me show you some more about this.

    好吧!我再讓你多知道一點。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • You guys knew there was a trick, didn't you.

    你們都知道事有玄機

  • (Honk)

    (喇叭聲)

  • Now who's ready to go on this trip.

    現在,有誰想要參加這趟旅行?

  • (Applause)

    (鼓掌)

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • I think I might have actually heard more hands.

    我想確實有更多人鼓掌了

  • All right.

    其實

  • Now in fact,

    事實上,

  • you had objectively more information

    客觀來說

  • the first time around than the second time around,

    你們在第一回合時較第二回合時有更多的訊息

  • but I would venture to guess

    但是我大膽猜測

  • that you felt that it was more real the second time around.

    你們在第二回合時有更真實的感覺

  • Because the pictures made it feel

    因為這些照片讓一切都變得

  • more real to you.

    更加真實

  • Which brings me to