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  • I was only four years old

    在我四歲的時候,

  • when I saw my mother load a washing machine

    我看見我的媽媽將衣物放進

  • for the very first time in her life.

    她一生中第一次使用的洗衣機。

  • That was a great day for my mother.

    對我媽來說, 這是一個重要的日子

  • My mother and father had been saving money for years

    我的媽媽和爸爸存了很多年的錢

  • to be able to buy that machine,

    才能夠買到這台洗衣機

  • and the first day it was going to be used,

    而這是它第一次被使用的日子,

  • even Grandma was invited

    甚至連奶奶都被邀請

  • to see the machine.

    來看這台洗衣機。

  • And Grandma was even more excited.

    奶奶還比媽媽更興奮

  • Throughout her life

    她這一輩子

  • she had been heating water with firewood,

    都是靠柴火來燒熱水,

  • and she had hand washed laundry

    她必須用雙手

  • for seven children.

    替七個孩子洗衣物

  • And now she was going to watch

    而現在她會看到

  • electricity do that work.

    電力來做這件事

  • My mother carefully opened the door,

    我媽媽小心地打開了門,

  • and she loaded the laundry

    然後她將這些衣物

  • into the machine,

    放進了洗衣機

  • like this.

    就像這樣

  • And then, when she closed the door,

    然後, 當她關上門的時候,

  • Grandma said, "No, no, no, no.

    奶奶說, "等等,

  • Let me, let me push the button."

    讓我來按這個按鈕。"

  • And Grandma pushed the button,

    然後奶奶按下了按鈕,

  • and she said, "Oh, fantastic!

    她說, "喔, 真神奇啊

  • I want to see this! Give me a chair!

    我想看看這個. 給我一張椅子

  • Give me a chair! I want to see it,"

    給我一張椅子, 我想看看它。"

  • and she sat down in front of the machine,

    於是她坐在洗衣機的前面,

  • and she watched the entire washing program.

    她看了整個洗滌的流程

  • She was mesmerized.

    她被迷住了

  • To my grandmother,

    對我的奶奶來說,

  • the washing machine was a miracle.

    洗衣機是一個奇蹟

  • Today, in Sweden and other rich countries,

    現在, 在瑞典和其他有錢的國家,

  • people are using

    人們使用著

  • so many different machines.

    各種不同的機器

  • Look, the homes are full of machines.

    看, 家裡堆滿了各種機器;

  • I can't even name them all.

    我甚至沒辦法說出全部的名稱

  • And they also, when they want to travel,

    同時, 當他們想旅行時,

  • they use flying machines

    他們會使用飛機

  • that can take them to remote destinations.

    來送他們到遙遠的地方

  • And yet, in the world, there are so many people

    然而, 在這個世界裡, 還有許多人

  • who still heat the water on fire,

    需要生火來燒熱水,

  • and they cook their food on fire.

    也必須靠火來煮飯

  • Sometimes they don't even have enough food,

    有時候甚至沒有足夠的食物

  • and they live below the poverty line.

    他們活在貧窮的標準線之下

  • There are two billion fellow human beings

    有二十億的人們

  • who live on less than two dollars a day.

    每天生活費用不到兩塊美金

  • And the richest people over there --

    而最富裕的人們 --

  • there's one billion people --

    有十億的人們 --

  • and they live above what I call the "air line,"

    他們生活在這條我稱為天際線之上,

  • because they spend more than $80 a day

    因為他們每天用在生活的花費

  • on their consumption.

    超過八十美金

  • But this is just one, two, three billion people,

    但這只是十、二十、 三十億的人們,

  • and obviously there are seven billion people in the world,

    但世界上有七十億的人口,

  • so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more

    所以還有十、二十、三十、四十億的人,

  • who live in between the poverty and the air line.

    生活在貧窮與天際線之間。

  • They have electricity,

    他們擁有電力,

  • but the question is, how many have washing machines?

    但問題是, 多少人擁有洗衣機?

  • I've done the scrutiny of market data,

    我做過市場調查,

  • and I've found that, indeed,

    我發現, 確實,

  • the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,

    洗衣機在這條天際線之下,

  • and today there's an additional one billion people out there

    而今日, 有十億人

  • who live above the "wash line."

    生活在洗衣機線之上

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And they consume more than $40 per day.

    他們每天的花費超過四十美元

  • So two billion have access to washing machines.

    所以有二十億的人可以使用洗衣機

  • And the remaining five billion,

    那麼剩下的五十億人們,

  • how do they wash?

    是怎麼洗衣服的呢?

  • Or, to be more precise,

    或者, 講明白一點,

  • how do most of the women in the world wash?

    世界上大部分的女人是怎麼洗衣服的呢?

  • Because it remains hard work for women to wash.

    因為對女人來說, 洗衣服仍然是件辛苦的事情

  • They wash like this: by hand.

    她們會這樣洗衣服: 用手洗

  • It's a hard, time-consuming labor,

    這是一件辛苦, 很耗費時間的工作,

  • which they have to do for hours every week.

    這是她們每個禮拜都要花費好幾小時所做的事情

  • And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away

    有時候她們必須將水從很遠的地方

  • to do the laundry at home,

    帶回家中洗衣服

  • or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.

    或是, 她們必須將衣物帶到很遠的溪流旁邊

  • And they want the washing machine.

    所以, 她們想要有洗衣機

  • They don't want to spend such a large part of their life

    她們不想將生命中大部分的時間

  • doing this hard work

    用在這種又辛苦

  • with so relatively low productivity.

    又沒什麼價值的工作上.

  • And there's nothing different in their wish

    她們的這個願望

  • than it was for my grandma.

    和我奶奶的願望沒什麼不同

  • Look here, two generations ago in Sweden --

    看這裡, 兩代之前的瑞典 --

  • picking water from the stream,

    從溪流邊取水,

  • heating with firewood and washing like that.

    生火燒水和用手洗衣服

  • They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.

    她們也同樣想要有洗衣機

  • But when I lecture to environmentally-concerned students,

    但是, 當我對著關心環保的學生們演說時,

  • they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."

    他們告訴我, "不, 世界上的人們不可以都擁有汽車和洗衣機。"

  • How can we tell this woman

    我們該怎麼告訴這個女人

  • that she ain't going to have a washing machine?

    她不可以有一台洗衣機?

  • And then I ask my students,

    於是我問我的學生們,

  • I've asked them -- over the last two years I've asked,

    在過去兩年中, 我問過他們,

  • "How many of you doesn't use a car?"

    "你們之中有多少人不開車?"

  • And some of them proudly raise their hand

    一部分人自豪地舉起他們的手,

  • and say, "I don't use a car."

    告訴我, "我不開車。"

  • And then I put the really tough question:

    接著我問他們一個艱困的問題:

  • "How many of you

    "你們之中

  • hand-wash your jeans and your bed sheets?"

    有多少人會用手洗牛仔褲和床單?"

  • And no one raised their hand.

    結果沒有人舉手

  • Even the hardcore in the green movement

    即使是綠色運動的激進人士

  • use washing machines.

    也會使用洗衣機

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • So how come [this is] something that everyone uses

    所以, 這種每個人都會使用的東西,

  • and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this?

    他們怎麼能夠期望別人不使用;有什麼特別的嗎?

  • I had to do an analysis about the energy used in the world.

    我對世界上能源使用狀況進行了分析

  • Here we are.

    就像這樣

  • Look here, you see the seven billion people up there:

    看這邊, 你看這裡有七十億的人們,

  • the air people, the wash people,

    天際等級的人, 洗衣機等級的人,

  • the bulb people and the fire people.

    使用燈泡和生火的人們

  • One unit like this

    這是一個單位,

  • is an energy unit of fossil fuel --

    一個石化燃料的單位 --

  • oil, coal or gas.

    石油, 煤炭或天然氣。

  • That's what most of electricity and the energy in the world is.

    這是世界上的電力和能源主要的來源

  • And it's 12 units used in the entire world,

    整個世界使用了十二個單位的能源,

  • and the richest one billion, they use six of them.

    最有錢的十億人們, 他們用了六個單位。

  • Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world's population.

    有一半的能源被這七分之一的人口給用掉了

  • And these ones who have washing machines,

    而這個有洗衣機的族群,

  • but not a house full of other machines,

    家中並未充斥其它機器的族群,

  • they use two.

    他們用了兩個單位。

  • This group uses three, one each.

    這個族群用了三個單位, 每十億人用一個單位

  • And they also have electricity.

    他們也擁有電力

  • And over there they don't even use one each.

    但這裡, 他們幾乎每十億人用不到一個單位

  • That makes 12 of them.

    這樣總共是十二單位的能源

  • But the main concern

    但是, 主要的問題是,

  • for the environmentally-interested students -- and they are right --

    對於關心環保的學生們而言 -- 他們是對的 --

  • is about the future.

    是未來的狀況。

  • What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends,

    趨勢會是如何呢? 如果我們將趨勢線延伸,

  • without any real advanced analysis, to 2050,

    一直到 2050 年, 不做任何進階的分析,

  • there are two things that can increase the energy use.

    有兩件事會造成能源消耗的增加

  • First, population growth.

    第一, 人口的成長

  • Second, economic growth.

    第二, 經濟的成長

  • Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here

    人口的增加主要發生在最貧窮的人們這邊,

  • because they have high child mortality

    因為他們有較高的兒童死亡率,

  • and they have many children per woman.

    同時每個女人的平均生育數也比較多

  • And [with] that you will get two extra,

    於是, 這邊就會多出兩個,

  • but that won't change the energy use very much.

    但這並不太會造成能源使用量的改變

  • What will happen is economic growth.

    接下來的是經濟成長

  • The best of here in the emerging economies --

    這邊所發生的經濟成長 --

  • I call them the New East --

    我稱之為新東方 --

  • they will jump the air line.

    他們會跳過天際線

  • "Wopp!" they will say.

    他們將會說, "跳!"

  • And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.

    接著他們會開始使用跟舊西方一樣多的能源耗用量

  • And these people, they want the washing machine.

    而那些人們, 他們想要有洗衣機

  • I told you. They'll go there.

    我說過的,他們將會移動到這裡。

  • And they will double their energy use.

    於是他們會增加兩倍的能源使用量

  • And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.

    而我們希望貧窮的人們能夠開始使用電燈

  • And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.

    接著他們會擁有兩個小孩的家庭而不會阻止人口成長

  • But the total energy consumption

    但是能源的總耗用量

  • will increase to 22 units.

    將會增加到 22 單位

  • And these 22 units --

    而這 22 單位的主要使用者

  • still the richest people use most of it.

    仍然是最有錢的那些人

  • So what needs to be done?

    所以, 我們該做些什麼呢?

  • Because the risk,

    由於目前所存在的風險,

  • the high probability of climate change is real.

    關於氣候變遷的高度可能性是存在的

  • It's real.

    這是真實的事情

  • Of course they must be more energy-efficient.

    當然, 他們必須更有效率的使用能源

  • They must change behavior in some way.

    他們必須改變使用習慣

  • They must also start to produce green energy,

    他們也必須開始製造綠色能源,

  • much more green energy.

    更多的綠色能源

  • But until they have the same energy consumption per person,

    但, 在他們能夠作到同樣的能源耗用之前,

  • they shouldn't give advice to others --

    他們不應該去建議別人 --

  • what to do and what not to do.

    什麼該做, 什麼是不該做的。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • Here we can get more green energy all over.

    這樣我們可以在整體上獲得更多綠色能源

  • This is what we hope may happen.

    這是我們期望發生的事

  • It's a real challenge in the future.

    這在未來是一大挑戰

  • But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio,

    但是我向你保證, 在里約貧民窟中的這個女人,

  • she wants a washing machine.

    她想要有洗衣機

  • She's very happy about her minister of energy

    她很高興她那位能源部長

  • that provided electricity to everyone --

    能夠提供給每個人民電力 --

  • so happy that she even voted for her.

    所以人們都樂意投票給她

  • And she became Dilma Rousseff,

    而她就是 Dilma Rousseff,

  • the president-elect

    在這世界中最大的民主國家之一

  • of one of the biggest democracies in the world --

    的總統當選者 --

  • moving from minister of energy to president.

    從能源部長變成了總統

  • If you have democracy,

    如果你有民主制度,

  • people will vote for washing machines.

    人們會為了洗衣機而投票

  • They love them.

    他們喜歡洗衣機

  • And what's the magic with them?

    它們神奇的地方在哪兒?

  • My mother explained the magic with this machine

    我媽媽在使用洗衣機的第一天

  • the very, very first day.

    解釋洗衣機的神奇之處給我聽

  • She said, "Now Hans,

    她說, "現在 Hans,

  • we have loaded the laundry.

    我們把衣物放了進去;

  • The machine will make the work.

    洗衣機就會把衣物洗好

  • And now we can go to the library."

    所以現在我們可以去圖書館了。"

  • Because this is the magic:

    由於這個神奇的事情:

  • you load the laundry,

    你把衣物放進去以後,

  • and what do you get out of the machine?

    你可以藉由洗衣機得到什麼?

  • You get books out of the machines,

    你可以藉由洗衣機得到書本,

  • children's books.

    兒童讀物。

  • And mother got time to read for me.

    而媽媽有空可以念給我聽

  • She loved this. I got the "ABC's" --

    她喜歡這件事,我得到了 "ABC"

  • this is where I started my career as a professor,

    這是我以教授作為工作的起點,

  • when my mother had time to read for me.

    在我媽媽有空念給我聽之後

  • And she also got books for herself.

    她也為自己得到了一些書

  • She managed to study English

    她開始唸英文,

  • and learn that as a foreign language.

    學習這個作為第一外語

  • And she read so many novels,

    她讀了許多小說,

  • so many different novels here.

    許多不同的小說

  • And we really, we really loved this machine.

    我們真的很愛洗衣機

  • And what we said, my mother and me,

    而媽媽和我想說的是,

  • "Thank you industrialization.

    "謝謝工業化

  • Thank you steel mill.

    謝謝鋼鐵廠

  • Thank you power station.

    謝謝電廠

  • And thank you chemical processing industry

    謝謝化學製品工業,

  • that gave us time to read books."

    給予我們唸書的時間。"

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝大家

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

I was only four years old

在我四歲的時候,

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A2 初級 中文 美國腔 TED 洗衣機 能源 單位 衣物 使用

【TED】Hans Rosling 與神奇的洗衣機 (The magic washing machine | Hans Rosling)

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    Max Lin 發佈於 2016 年 01 月 31 日
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