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  • I want to talk about the election.

    我要跟大家聊聊有關選舉

  • For the first time in the United States, a predominantly white group of voters

    美國有史以來,大多數白人選民

  • voted for an African-American candidate for President.

    首次投票給一位非洲裔候選人

  • And in fact Barack Obama did quite well.

    事實上,歐巴馬取得不錯的成績

  • He won 375 electoral votes.

    獲得了375張選舉人票

  • And he won about 70 million popular votes

    與此同時,還獲得7,000萬張民眾選票

  • more than any other presidential candidate --

    是歷屆總統選舉中,獲得票數最高

  • of any race, of any party -- in history.

    比任何族裔和黨派的候選人都要出色

  • If you compare how Obama did against how John Kerry had done four years earlier --

    比起歐巴馬與四年前凱利的選舉

  • Democrats really like seeing this transition here,

    民主黨應該很欣然看到當中的改變

  • where almost every state becomes bluer, becomes more democratic --

    幾乎每個州,對民主黨的支持度均上升

  • even states Obama lost, like out west,

    就連歐巴馬輸掉的州份,比如美國西岸

  • those states became more blue.

    也是如此

  • In the south, in the northeast, almost everywhere

    相同情形也出現在南部和東北部

  • but with a couple of exceptions here and there.

    當然,也有一些例外

  • One exception is in Massachusetts.

    其中一個例外是麻薩諸塞州

  • That was John Kerry's home state.

    那是凱利的家鄉

  • No big surprise, Obama couldn't do better than Kerry there.

    理所當然,歐巴馬的成績不可能勝過凱利

  • Or in Arizona, which is John McCain's home,

    還有亞利桑那州,那是對手麥肯的家鄉

  • Obama didn't have much improvement.

    歐巴馬很難有所突破

  • But there is also this part of the country, kind of in the middle region here.

    在中部地區也有類似情況,如

  • This kind of Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia region.

    阿肯色州、田納西州、俄克拉荷馬州、西佛吉尼亞州

  • Now if you look at '96, Bill Clinton --

    比較1996年克林頓

  • the last Democrat to actually win -- how he did in '96,

    上一位代表民主黨獲勝總統的票選

  • you see real big differences in this part of the country right here,

    會發現驚人的改變

  • the kind of Appalachians, Ozarks, highlands region, as I call it:

    地區如:阿巴拉契亞山區(Appalachinas)、歐扎克斯(Ozarks)、高原地區

  • 20 or 30 point swings

    有20至30點的調整

  • from how Bill Clinton did in '96 to how Obama did

    這是從1996克林頓到歐巴馬

  • in 2008.

    2008年

  • Yes Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, but these are very, very profound differences.

    雖然阿肯色州是克林頓的家鄉,但當中的差距未免也太大!

  • So, when we think about parts of the country like Arkansas, you know.

    讓我們探討一下地區,如阿肯色州

  • There is a book written called, "What's the Matter with Kansas?"

    有本書叫《 堪薩斯州到底怎麼了?》

  • But really the question here -- Obama did relatively well in Kansas.

    但問題是,歐巴馬在堪薩斯州的成績不算差

  • He lost badly but every Democrat does.

    他雖然輸了這個州,但每位民主黨候選人都這樣

  • He lost no worse than most people do.

    他沒有不如他人

  • But yeah, what's the matter with Arkansas?

    所以囉,阿肯色州到底怎麼了?

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And when we think of Arkansas we tend to have pretty negative connotations.

    想到阿肯色州,難免有些負面的想法

  • We think of a bunch of rednecks, quote, unquote, with guns.

    一群拿著槍的鄉下人

  • And we think people like this probably don't want to vote

    想也知道這些人不會支持

  • for people who look like this and are named Barack Obama.

    歐巴馬這類型,甚至聽到這名字就不想理了

  • We think it's a matter of race. And is this fair?

    歸根究底,就是種族問題在作怪

  • Are we kind of stigmatizing people from Arkansas, and this part of the country?

    如此形容阿肯色州人,是否太武斷了?

  • And the answer is: it is at least partially fair.

    其實不然,起碼有一部份說得對

  • We know that race was a factor, and the reason why we know that

    種族問題的確有影響,如此說

  • is because we asked those people.

    是因為有經過查證

  • Actually we didn't ask them, but when they conducted

    雖然沒有直接詢問原因

  • exit polls in every state,

    但曾在投票站

  • in 37 states, out of the 50,

    50個州中,就訪問了30個州

  • they asked a question, that was pretty direct, about race.

    有關種族的問題

  • They asked this question.

    內容是

  • In deciding your vote for President today, was the race

    在今天的總統選舉中,候選人的種族背景

  • of the candidate a factor?

    是否考量因素之一?

  • We're looking for people that said, "Yes, race was a factor;

    我們特別針對承認候選人種族背景

  • moreover it was an important factor, in my decision,"

    或多或少影響到投票決定的選民

  • and people who voted for John McCain

    尤其支持麥肯

  • as a result of that factor,

    其真正原因

  • maybe in combination with other factors, and maybe alone.

    或許只有一個原因,有或許更多

  • We're looking for this behavior among white voters

    特別著重白人選民

  • or, really, non-black voters.

    喔,正確說是非黑人選民做研究

  • So you see big differences in different parts

    大家可以看到,差距其實很大

  • of the country on this question.

    尤其訪問者來自不同地區

  • In Louisiana, about one in five white voters

    路易斯安那州,每五個白人選民,就有一位

  • said, "Yes, one of the big reasons why I voted against Barack Obama

    承認不選歐巴馬

  • is because he was an African-American."

    因為他是非裔美國人

  • If those people had voted for Obama,

    假如這群選民原意支持歐巴馬

  • even half of them, Obama would have won Louisiana safely.

    即使只有一半,也必成歐巴馬的囊中物

  • Same is true with, I think, all of these states you see on the top of the list.

    同樣道理,可以用於以上州份

  • Meanwhile, California, New York, we can say, "Oh we're enlightened"

    再看看加州、紐約,所謂見過世面的州份

  • but you know, certainly a much lower incidence of this

    相對受種族影響較少

  • admitted, I suppose,

    起碼我如此認為

  • manifestation of racially-based voting.

    這是顯而易見

  • Here is the same data on a map.

    地圖顯示同樣的數據

  • You kind of see the relationship between

    更容易看出當中的關係

  • the redder states of where more people responded and said,

    紅色州份就有很多人承認

  • "Yes, Barack Obama's race was a problem for me."

    介意歐巴馬的種族背景

  • You see, comparing the map to '96, you see an overlap here.

    再對照1996年,看到當中的重疊嗎?

  • This really seems to explain

    這就解釋了

  • why Barack Obama did worse

    為甚麼歐巴馬未能獲得某些選民支持

  • in this one part of the country.

    尤其是這些區域

  • So we have to ask why.

    為甚麼有這樣的現象?

  • Is racism predictable in some way?

    種族歧視有跡可尋嗎?

  • Is there something driving this?

    又是甚麼因素致使種族歧視?

  • Is it just about some weird stuff that goes on in Arkansas

    難道這些怪現象只發生在阿肯色州和肯德基州?

  • that we don't understand, and Kentucky?

    讓人難以理解

  • Or are there more systematic factors at work?

    還是有更多其他原因?

  • And so we can look at a bunch of different variables.

    就讓我們深入地了解一下

  • These are things that economists and political scientists look at all the time --

    經濟學家和政治學家早已對此展開調查

  • things like income, and religion, education.

    收入多寡、宗教信仰、教育程度等等

  • Which of these seem to drive

    究竟那項導致

  • this manifestation of racism

    種族歧視

  • in this big national experiment we had on November 4th?

    試圖在11月4日選舉中找出答案

  • And there are a couple of these that have

    當中有幾個因素

  • strong predictive relationships,

    扮演著舉足輕重的影響地位

  • one of which is education,

    其中一個便是教育程度

  • where you see the states with the fewest years of schooling

    大家可以看到教育程度較低的州份

  • per adult are in red,

    以紅色顯示

  • and you see this part of the country, the kind of Appalachians region,

    可以看到阿巴拉契亞山區

  • is less educated. It's just a fact.

    教育程度較低

  • And you see the relationship there

    教育程度直接影響選民

  • with the racially-based voting patterns.

    是否以種族背景為選舉的考慮因素

  • The other variable that's important is

    另一個影響選民的重要因素

  • the type of neighborhood that you live in.

    就是左鄰右舍

  • States that are more rural --

    比較鄉下的州份

  • even to some extent of the states like New Hampshire and Maine --

    如罕布什爾州和緬因

  • they exhibit a little bit of

    也有如此現象

  • this racially-based voting against Barack Obama.

    因為歐巴馬的種族背景,不願支持

  • So it's the combination of these two things: it's education

    因此,兩個因素影響了結果。那就是教育程度

  • and the type of neighbors that you have,

    還有左鄰右舍

  • which we'll talk about more in a moment.

    稍後我會再詳細分析

  • And the thing about states like Arkansas and Tennessee

    阿肯色州和田納西州就是鮮明的例子

  • is that they're both very rural,

    都是鄉下地方

  • and they are educationally impoverished.

    居民所受的教育也較貧乏

  • So yes, racism is predictable.

    所以說種族歧視是有跡可尋

  • These things, among maybe other variables,

    透過以上這些,再加其他因素

  • but these things seem to predict it.

    幫助我們了解

  • We're going to drill down a little bit more now,

    現在,讓我們再深入看看

  • into something called the General Social Survey.

    社會概況調查

  • This is conducted by the University of Chicago

    由芝加哥大學發起

  • every other year.

    每隔一年舉辦一次

  • And they ask a series of really interesting questions.

    當中包括一系列有趣問題

  • In 2000 they had particularly interesting questions

    2000年的調查

  • about racial attitudes.

    特別針對種族觀念

  • One simple question they asked is,

    其中一個簡單的問題

  • "Does anyone of the opposite race live in your neighborhood?"

    「在所居住的社區,有沒有其他種族」?

  • We can see in different types of communities that the results are quite different.

    不同社區所得到的答案也迥然不同

  • In cites, about 80 percent of people

    在市區,80%受訪者

  • have someone whom they consider a neighbor of another race,

    表示有其他種族的鄰居

  • but in rural communities, only about 30 percent.

    在鄉村地區,只有約30%

  • Probably because if you live on a farm, you might not have a lot of neighbors, period.

    或許是因為鄉村,農場遼闊,沒有太多鄰居

  • But nevertheless, you're not having a lot of interaction with people

    因此沒機會與背景不同的人來往

  • who are unlike you.

    尤其那種跟自己完全不同

  • So what we're going to do now is take the white people in the survey

    現在,我們要一份調查

  • and split them between those who have black neighbors --

    將白人分成兩組,一組是有黑人鄰居

  • or, really, some neighbor of another race --

    喔,正確說法是與其他種族為鄰

  • and people who have only white neighbors.

    另一組則只有白人鄰居

  • And we see in some variables

    仔細分析數據

  • in terms of political attitudes, not a lot of difference.

    所持政治立場,兩組分別並不大

  • This was eight years ago, some people were more Republican back then.

    雖說這是八年前的數據,較多人支持共和黨

  • But you see Democrats versus Republican,

    比較民主黨和共和黨

  • not a big difference based on who your neighbors are.

    與誰為鄰,並沒有直接影響政治立場

  • And even some questions about race -- for example

    在針對族裔的調查,例如

  • affirmative action, which is kind of a political question,

    一些如權益平等促進法的問題

  • a policy question about race, if you will --

    此類有關政治的問題

  • not much difference here.

    答案也沒有太大分別

  • Affirmative action is not very popular frankly, with white voters, period.

    坦白說,權益平等促進法在白人選民中,並不受歡迎

  • But people with black neighbors and people with mono-racial neighborhoods

    有黑人的社區,或單一種族的社區

  • feel no differently about it really.

    則沒有太大的分別

  • But if you probe a bit deeper and get a bit more personal if you will,

    不過,如果更深入,針對個人調查

  • "Do you favor a law banning interracial marriage?"

    問題如「是否支持反異族通婚法?」

  • There is a big difference.

    所得的答案則完全不同

  • People who don't have neighbors of a different race

    來自單一種族社區的民眾

  • are about twice as likely

    對這問題的支持率是另一組的兩倍

  • to oppose interracial marriage as people who do.

    反對異族通婚

  • Just based on who lives in your immediate neighborhood around you.

    這單單只是受鄰居影響

  • And likewise they asked, not in 2000, but in the same survey in 1996,

    1996年,也做過相同調查

  • "Would you not vote for a qualified black president?"

    問:「是否支持非裔美國人當選總統?」

  • You see people without neighbors who are African-American who

    調查發現,那些未曾與非裔為鄰

  • were much more likely to say, "That would give me a problem."

    多會表示不願意支持

  • So it's really not even about urban versus rural.

    所以說,這根本不是攸關城市與鄉村

  • It's about who you live with.

    與誰為鄰才是關鍵

  • Racism is predictable. And it's predicted by

    種族歧視是有跡可尋

  • interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.

    透過所接觸的人,甚至交友狀況而得知

  • So if you want to address it,

    簡單來說

  • the goal is to facilitate interaction with people of other races.

    我們的目標就是促進各種族互動

  • I have a couple of very obvious, I suppose,

    我心中有一些想法

  • ideas for maybe how to do that.

    希望能推動這個目標

  • I'm a big fan of cities.

    我非常熱愛城市

  • Especially if we have cites that are diverse and sustainable,

    尤其我們的城市如此多元化

  • and can support people of different ethnicities and different income groups.

    融匯了各族裔群體,各社會階層

  • I think cities facilitate more of the kind of networking,

    城市裡有很多機會擴展社交圈

  • the kind of casual interaction than you might have on a daily basis.

    每天都可以接觸不同的人

  • But also not everyone wants to live in a city, certainly not a city like New York.

    當然,不是每個人都喜歡住城市,尤其是紐約

  • So we can think more about things like street grids.

    讓我們看看這類如棋盤式格局的街道

  • This is the neighborhood where I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan.

    我在芝加哥的東蘭莘長大

  • It's a traditional Midwestern community, which means you have real grid.

    一個典型中西部社區,街道都是整整齊齊

  • You have real neighborhoods and real trees, and real streets you can walk on.

    可以看到實實在在的社區、樹木、街道

  • And you interact a lot with your neighbors --

    在這裡,可以跟許多鄰居來往、互動

  • people you like, people you might not know.

    儘管有些人我們未必喜歡,甚至不了解

  • And as a result it's a very tolerant community,

    卻是一個可包容彼此的社區

  • which is different, I think, than something like this,

    另外一種城市就不一樣

  • which is in Schaumburg, Illinois,

    如伊利諾州的紹姆堡

  • where every little set of houses has their own cul-de-sac

    每家都有私家路

  • and drive-through Starbucks and stuff like that.

    甚至大到可容納一家星巴客等等

  • I think that actually this type of urban design,

    這類社區

  • which became more prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s --

    在70、80年代特別流行

  • I think there is a relationship between that and the country becoming

    我個人認為美國會變得

  • more conservative under Ronald Reagan.

    如此保守,是在雷根總統任職的時候

  • But also here is another idea we have --

    還有另一個想法

  • is an intercollegiate exchange program

    就是交換生計畫

  • where you have students going from New York abroad.

    例如將紐約學生送往海外

  • But frankly there are enough differences within the country now

    老實說,就算在美國,各州縣差距也很大

  • where maybe you can take a bunch of kids from NYU,

    或許可以將紐約大學生

  • have them go study for a semester at the University of Arkansas,

    送到阿肯色大學

  • and vice versa. Do it at the high school level.

    反之亦然。還可以將此延伸至高中

  • Literally there are people who might be in school in Arkansas or Tennessee

    其實,生長在阿肯色州或田納西州的學生

  • and might never interact in a positive affirmative way

    可能從未有機會與其他種族交流

  • with someone from another part of the country, or of another racial group.

    尤其是來自另一個地區或種族

  • I think part of the education variable we talked about before

    教育的其中一個目的

  • is the networking experience you get when you go to college

    就是在大學時期建立人際網絡

  • where you do get a mix of people that you might not interact with otherwise.

    與不同種族的同學交流互動

  • But the point is, this is all good news,

    總結,這可是一個好消息

  • because when something is predictable,

    事情有跡可循

  • it is what I call designable.

    就代表有相關對策

  • You can start thinking about solutions to solving that problem,

    大家可以開始想想有甚麼解決方法

  • even if the problem is pernicious and as intractable as racism.

    儘管不容易解決,如種族歧視,非常棘手

  • If we understand the root causes of the behavior

    但如果我們能夠揪出問題的根源

  • and where it manifests itself and where it doesn't,

    將之抽絲剝繭

  • we can start to design solutions to it.

    必能找出相對應辦法

  • So that's all I have to say. Thank you very much.

    以上是我想與大家分享的。謝謝!

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

I want to talk about the election.

我要跟大家聊聊有關選舉

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B1 中級 中文 TED 種族 歐巴馬 選民 社區 選舉

【TED】Nate Silver:種族如何影響選票? (【TED】Nate Silver: How does race affect votes?)

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    kimkon1108 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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