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  • I'm going to show you how terrorism

    我今天要談的是

  • actually interacts with our daily life.

    恐怖主義與日常生活的關係

  • 15 years ago I received a phone call from a friend.

    15年前我接到一通朋友打來的電話

  • At the time he was looking after the rights of political prisoners

    當時他致力於確保義大利政治犯

  • in Italian jails.

    在監獄的權利

  • He asked me if I wanted to interview the Red Brigades.

    他問我想不想訪問「赤軍」

  • Now, as many of you may remember,

    各位應該都記得

  • the Red Brigades was a terrorist, Marxist organization

    「赤軍」是馬克思主義的恐怖組織

  • which was very active in Italy

    1960年代到1980年中期

  • from the 1960s until the mid-1980s.

    在義大利非常活躍

  • As part of their strategy

    他們的策略之一

  • the Red Brigades never spoke with anybody, not even with their lawyers.

    就是絕不開口,就算是跟他們的律師也一樣

  • They sat in silence through their trails,

    在法庭上完全靜默

  • waving occasionally at family and friends.

    偶爾與家人朋友揮揮手

  • In 1993 they declared the end of the armed struggle.

    1993年他們宣布停止武裝鬥爭

  • And they drew a list of people with whom they would talk,

    並列出一張名單,他們只與名單上的人說話

  • and tell their story.

    說出他們的故事

  • And I was one of those people.

    我是其中一個人

  • When I asked my friend why the Red Brigades want to talk to me,

    我問我朋友,為什麼赤軍想找我

  • he said that the female members of the organization

    他說,他們有個女成員

  • had actually supported my name.

    替我背書

  • In particular, one person had put it forward.

    不只如此,她還推薦我

  • She was my childhood friend.

    她就是我童年好友

  • She had joined the Red Brigades

    她加入赤色軍團

  • and became a leader of the organization.

    還變成領導者之一

  • Naturally, I didn't know that

    當然,她被逮前

  • until the day she was arrested.

    我完全不曉得

  • In fact, I read it in the newspaper.

    我還是看報紙才知道的

  • At the time of the phone call

    當時接到電話時

  • I just had a baby,

    我才剛生完小孩

  • I successfully completed a management buyout

    替公司處理完一筆

  • to the company I was working with,

    管理層收購交易

  • and the last thing I wanted to do was to go back home

    我最不想做的

  • and touring the high-security prisons.

    就是到高度保全的監獄

  • But this is exactly what I did

    但我就這麼做了

  • because I wanted to know

    因為我想知道

  • what had turned my best friend

    為什麼我的好朋友

  • into a terrorist,

    會是恐怖份子

  • and why she'd never tried to recruit me.

    還有,她為什麼從不試著徵召我

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • So, this is exactly what I did.

    所以我到了監獄

  • Now, I found the answer very quickly.

    馬上就知道答案了

  • I actually had failed

    因為我不符合

  • the psychological profiling of a terrorist.

    恐怖份子的性格特徵

  • The center committee of the Red Brigades

    赤軍的高層

  • had judged me too single-minded

    認為我做事太專一

  • and too opinionated to become a good terrorist.

    意見太多,所以不能當恐怖份子

  • My friend, on the other hand, she was a good terrorist

    我的朋友,相反地,非常稱職

  • because she was very good at following orders.

    因為她服從命令

  • She also embraced violence.

    也喜歡暴力

  • Because she believed that the only way

    因為她認為,

  • to unblock what, at the time,

    脫離義大利當時

  • was known as a blocked democracy,

    封閉式民主的唯一方法-

  • Italy, a country run by the same party for 35 years

    當時同一政黨統治長達35年

  • was the arms struggle.

    -只有武裝鬥爭

  • At the same time, while I was interviewing the Red Brigades,

    所以當時我訪問著赤軍

  • I also discovered that their life was not ruled

    我發現驅使他們的並不是

  • by politics or ideology,

    政治或意識型態

  • but actually was ruled by economics.

    而是經濟

  • They were constantly short of cash.

    他們常常沒錢花

  • They were constantly searching for cash.

    常常需要現金

  • Now, contrary to what many people believe,

    和大家認知正好相反

  • terrorism is actually a very expensive business.

    恐怖組織是個很花錢的行業

  • I'll give you an idea.

    給大家個概念

  • In the 1970s, the turnover of the Red Brigades

    1970年代,赤軍的週轉額

  • on a yearly basis

    每年是

  • was seven million dollars.

    7百萬美金

  • This is roughly between 100

    現在的話大約是

  • and 150 million, today.

    1億到1億5千萬

  • Now, you know, if you live underground

    如果你是地下集團

  • it's really hard to produce this amount of money.

    是很難籌出這筆錢的

  • But this also explains why, when I was interviewing the Red Brigades,

    這也解答了為什麼後來我訪問赤軍

  • and then, later on, other arms organizations,

    以及其他武裝組織時

  • including members of al-Zarqawi group in the Middle East,

    包括了中東的基地組織

  • everybody was extremely reluctant

    大家都不願意談到

  • to talk about ideology, or politics.

    意識型態或政治

  • Because they had no idea.

    因為他們根本不懂

  • The political vision of a terrorist organization

    恐怖組織的政治觀

  • is decided by the leadership,

    是由領導層決定的

  • which, generally, is never more than five to seven people.

    通常只有5到7人,不會超過

  • All the others do, day in and day out,

    那其他人,就整天在外

  • is search for money.

    想辦法籌錢

  • Once, for example, I was interviewing

    有一次,我訪問了

  • this part-timer from the Red Brigades.

    赤軍一位兼差的成員

  • It was a psychiatrist. He loved sailing.

    他是精神科醫生,喜歡航海

  • He was a really keen sailor. And he had this beautiful boat.

    非常厲害的水手,自己也有艘船

  • And he told me that the best time of his life

    他說他生命中最棒的一段日子

  • was when he was a member of the Red Brigades

    就是加入赤軍的時候

  • and he went sailing, every summer, back and forth

    因為他每年夏天,可以乘船來回

  • from Lebanon, where he would pick up

    黎巴嫩,負責從巴勒斯坦解放組織那

  • Soviet weapons from the PLO,

    將蘇聯的武器

  • and then carry them all the way to Sardinia

    一路運到薩丁尼亞

  • where the other arms organization from Europe would go

    然後歐洲其他武裝組織

  • and take their share of the arms.

    共同分領那些武器

  • For that service the Red Brigades were actually paid a fee,

    替赤軍賺取一些佣金

  • which went to fund their organization.

    後來拿做成立組織的資金

  • So, because I am a trained economist

    所以,由於我是經濟學家

  • and I think in economic terms,

    我用經濟學術語思考

  • all of the sudden I thought,

    我突然想到

  • maybe there is something here.

    也許兩者之間

  • Maybe there is a link, a commercial link,

    組織與組織之間

  • between one organization and another one.

    是有商業關聯的

  • But it was only when I interviewed

    直到我訪問了

  • Mario Moretti, the head of the Red Brigades,

    赤軍的領導者馬里奧·莫雷蒂(Mario Moretti)

  • the man who kidnapped and killed Aldo Moro,

    -他綁架、殺害了義大利前總理

  • Italian former prime minister,

    阿爾多·莫羅(Aldo Moro)—

  • that I finally realized

    最終,我才了解到

  • that terrorism is actually business.

    恐怖主義其實是一種商業活動

  • I was having lunch with him

    我在高度戒備的

  • in a high-security prison in Italy.

    義大利監獄與他午餐會談

  • And as we were eating,

    我們吃著

  • I had the distinct feeling

    我馬上有種

  • that I was back in the city of London,

    回到倫敦街頭

  • having lunch with a fellow banker or an economist.

    和我銀行家朋友吃飯的感覺

  • This guy thought in the same way I did.

    他和我有相同的思考模式

  • So, I decided that I wanted to investigate the economics of terrorism.

    所以,我決定調查恐怖組織的經濟

  • Naturally, nobody wanted to fund my research.

    當然,沒有人想贊助我

  • In fact, I think many people thought that I was a bit crazy.

    大家都覺得我瘋了

  • You know, that woman that goes around to foundations

    這女人到處籌錢

  • asking for money, thinking about the economics of terrorism.

    竟然是想研究恐怖主義經濟學

  • So, in the end, I took a decision

    最後,我的決定

  • that, in retrospect, did change my life.

    後來想想,改變我一生的決定

  • I sold my company,

    我賣掉我公司

  • and funded the research myself.

    自己贊助自己

  • And what I discovered

    我發現他們

  • is this parallel reality,

    其實是個平行世界

  • another international economic system,

    與我們國際經濟體系

  • which runs parallel to our own,

    平行的世界

  • which has been created by arms organizations

    從二次大戰開始

  • since the end of World War II.

    由武裝組織運作的世界

  • And what is even more shocking

    更吃驚的是

  • is that this system

    他們的運作

  • has followed, step by step, the evolution

    與我們西方資本主義

  • of our own system,

    的運作過程

  • of our Western capitalism.

    是一樣的

  • And there are three main stages.

    總共有三階段

  • The first one is the state sponsor of terrorism.

    第一階段,政府贊助的恐怖行動

  • The second one is the privatization of terrorism.

    第二階段,恐怖組織民營化

  • And the third, of course, is the globalization of terrorism.

    第三階段,當然就是恐怖主義全球化

  • So, state sponsor of terrorism,

    政府贊助的恐怖行動-

  • feature of the Cold War.

    冷戰的寫照

  • This is when the two superpowers were fighting

    當時美國和蘇聯一邊忙著打

  • a war by proxy,

    代理人戰爭

  • along the periphery of the sphere of influence,

    一邊忙著利用武裝組織

  • fully funding arms organizations.

    來鞏固勢力範圍

  • A mix of legal and illegal activities is used.

    結合一切合法、非法行動

  • So, the link between crime and terror

    所以犯罪與恐怖行動的聯繫

  • is established very early on.

    其實很早就存在了

  • And here is the best example,

    最好的例子就是

  • the Contras in Nicaragua, created by the CIA,

    CIA創造出的尼加拉瓜反抗軍

  • legally funded by the U.S. Congress,

    檯面上由美國國會合法贊助

  • illegally funded by the Reagan administration

    檯面下是雷根政府

  • via covert operation, for example, the Iran-Contra Affair.

    透過像是伊朗門事件的秘密行動非法贊助

  • Then comes the late 1970s, early '80s,

    後來1970年代晚期,1980年代初期

  • and some groups successfully carry out

    有些組織成功的將

  • the privatization of terrorism.

    恐怖組織民營化

  • So, they gain independence from the sponsor,

    他們從贊助人那裡獨立

  • and start funding themselves.

    自己創造資金

  • Now, again we see a mix of legal and illegal activities.

    再次看到結合法、非法行動的結合

  • So, Arafat used to get a percentage

    阿拉法特(巴解組織領袖)

  • of the smuggling of hashish

    從貝卡谷-

  • from Bekáa Valley, which is the valley between Lebanon and Syria.

    黎巴嫩與敘利亞間的的山谷-走私大麻來抽成

  • And the IRA, which control the private transportation system

    還有愛爾蘭共和軍(IRA),他們掌控北愛的

  • in Northern Ireland, did exactly the same thing.

    民營運輸系統,也是相同的

  • So, every single time

    所以每一次

  • that somebody got into a taxi in Belfast

    有人在貝爾法斯特(Belfast)搭計程車

  • without knowing, actually,

    其實都無形地

  • was funding the IRA.

    在資助 IRA

  • But the great change came, of course,

    當然,透過全球化與去管制化

  • with globalization and deregulation.

    後來有了重大改變

  • This is when arms organization were able to link up,

    這階段各個組織相互連結起來

  • also financially, with each other.

    財務上也是

  • But above all, they started to do

    除此之外,他們開始了

  • serious business with the world of crime.

    非法商業活動

  • And together they money-laundered

    包含替他們的骯髒行業

  • their dirty business through the same channel.

    用同樣方法洗錢

  • This is when we see the birth of the transnational

    接著,我們看到了跨國際武裝團體

  • arms organization Al Qaeda.

    基地組織(Al Qaeda)的誕生

  • This is an organization that can raise money across border.

    這組織可以在跨國籌措資金的同時

  • But also that is able to carry out attacks

    發起位於另一國家

  • in more than one country.

    的恐怖攻擊

  • Now, deregulation also brought back

    去管制化同時也造成

  • rogue economics.

    無賴經濟學的重現

  • So what is rogue economics?

    無賴經濟學是什麼?

  • Rogue economics is a force which is constantly

    它是一種歷史中

  • lurking in the background of history.

    不斷出現的一股力量

  • It comes back at times of great transformation,

    重大轉變的時候常可看到它的身影

  • globalization being one of those transformations.

    全球化也是重大轉變之一

  • It is at this times in which

    這也是在

  • politics actually loses control of the economy,

    政治開始失去經濟控制權時

  • and the economy becomes a rogue force

    經濟變成一種反向力量

  • working against us.

    與我們相對

  • It has happened before in history.

    歷史曾經發生

  • It has happened with the fall of the Roman Empire.

    羅馬帝國衰落時也發生過

  • It has happened with Industrial Revolution.

    還有工業革命也是

  • And it actually happened again, with the fall of the Berlin wall.

    後來還有一次,在柏林圍牆倒塌時

  • Now, I calculated how big was this international

    所以我計算了這個由犯罪、

  • economic system composed by crime,

    恐怖行動、非法組成的

  • terror, and illegal economy,

    經濟體營業額

  • before 9-11.

    在911以前

  • And it is a staggering 1.5 trillion dollars.

    是可觀的1.5兆美金

  • It is trillions, it's not billions.

    兆,不只是億而已

  • This is about twice the GDP of the United Kingdom,

    大概是英國兩倍的國內生產毛額

  • soon will be more,

    之後會更多

  • considering where this country is going.

    考量到現在英國的狀況

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Now, until 9-11,

    911之前

  • the bulk of all this money

    大部分資金

  • flew into the U.S. economy

    都流入美國市場

  • because the bulk of the money was denominated in U.S. dollars

    這筆錢大部分是美元

  • and the money laundering was taking place

    所以洗錢活動都在

  • inside the United States.

    美國境內

  • The entry point, of course, of most of this money

    大部分的金錢都是從

  • were the off-shore facilities.

    海外機構流入

  • So, this was a vital injection of cash

    這筆資金便注入

  • into the U.S. economy.

    美國經濟

  • Now, when I went to look at the figures of the U.S. money supply,

    當我查看美國貨幣供應數據

  • the U.S. money supply is the amount

    美國貨幣供應

  • of dollars that the Federal Reserve

    也就是美聯儲

  • prints every year

    每年,為滿足

  • in order to satisfy

    金錢的需求

  • the increase in the demand for dollars,

    而印出的鈔票量

  • which, of course, reflects the growth

    同時也反映出

  • of the economy.

    經濟成長

  • So, when I went to look at those figures, I noted that since the late 1960s

    當我細看這些數據,我發現1960年代晚期

  • a growing number of these dollars

    這些錢事實上

  • was actually leaving the United States,

    已經流出美國

  • never to come back.

    沒有再回來

  • These were money taken out

    這些現金

  • in suitcases or in containers, in cash of course.

    用提箱、貨箱裝著運出去

  • These were money taken out by criminals and money launderers.

    這些錢都由罪犯、洗錢者帶出的

  • These were money taken out to fund

    這些錢都貢獻給

  • the growth of the terror,

    恐怖組織的發展

  • illegal and criminal economy.

    以及非法、犯罪經濟

  • So, you see, what is the relationship?

    看出關聯了嗎?

  • The United States actually is a country

    美國事實上是全球的

  • that is the reserve currency of the world.

    貨幣儲存地

  • What does it mean? That means that

    這代表什麼?

  • it has a privilege that other countries do not have.

    別的國家都沒有這項特權

  • It can borrow against the total amount of dollars

    美金可以在世界各國

  • in circulation in the world.

    任意流通、借貸

  • This privilege is called seigniorage.

    這特權就是鑄幣稅

  • No other country can do that.

    其他國家無法做到

  • All the other countries, for example the United Kingdom,

    其他國家,像是英國

  • can borrow only against the amount of money

    只能用自己的貨幣

  • in circulation inside its own borders.

    在境內借錢

  • So, here is the implication