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  • I study the future

    我研究犯罪與恐怖主義

  • of crime and terrorism,

    未來的發展

  • and frankly, I'm afraid.

    坦白說,我蠻害怕的

  • I'm afraid by what I see.

    我看到的將來,讓我很擔心

  • I sincerely want to believe

    我真心希望

  • that technology can bring us

    科技能帶我們到

  • the techno-utopia that we've been promised,

    科技烏托邦的願景

  • but, you see,

    但,這麼說吧

  • I've spent a career in law enforcement,

    我一生都在執法單位

  • and that's informed my perspective on things.

    讓我發展出相關看法

  • I've been a street police officer,

    我做過基層警員

  • an undercover investigator,

    也做過臥底調查員

  • a counter-terrorism strategist,

    參與反恐策略的規劃

  • and I've worked in more than 70 countries

    我曾在70幾個國家做過相關工作

  • around the world.

    遍佈全世界

  • I've had to see more than my fair share

    我見識夠多

  • of violence and the darker underbelly of society,

    暴力,以及陰暗的社會下層

  • and that's informed my opinions.

    我的看法因之成形

  • My work with criminals and terrorists

    和罪犯及恐怖份子交手的經驗

  • has actually been highly educational.

    非常有教育性

  • They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able

    我學到許多,在此讓我和大家分享

  • to share some of these observations with you.

    我的部分觀察

  • Today I'm going to show you the flip side

    今天,我要和各位分享,讓我們嘖嘖稱奇的科技

  • of all those technologies that we marvel at,

    也有我們意料不到的另一面

  • the ones that we love.

    一樣是我們喜愛的科技

  • In the hands of the TED community,

    在TED 社區成員手裡

  • these are awesome tools which will bring about

    它們都是很棒的工具

  • great change for our world,

    可以給世界帶來很大改變

  • but in the hands of suicide bombers,

    但在自殺炸彈客手中

  • the future can look quite different.

    卻會讓我們的將來卻完全走樣

  • I started observing

    當我年輕時,還是在街上值勤的基層警員時

  • technology and how criminals were using it

    我就開始觀察罪犯們如何運用科技

  • as a young patrol officer.

    幫助他們犯罪

  • In those days, this was the height of technology.

    那時,這些就是最好的科技產品

  • Laugh though you will,

    當然你會笑

  • all the drug dealers and gang members

    但我碰過的藥頭和幫派份子

  • with whom I dealt had one of these

    卻是人手一機

  • long before any police officer I knew did.

    比所有我認識的警察都要早

  • Twenty years later, criminals are still using

    二十年後,罪犯們

  • mobile phones, but they're also building

    還是用手機,但他們也已經建構了

  • their own mobile phone networks,

    專屬的私人行動電話網路

  • like this one, which has been deployed

    就像各位在此看到的這些

  • in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.

    在墨西哥全國31省都有,全由毒梟打造建構

  • They have a national encrypted

    他們的無線通訊系統

  • radio communications system.

    及於全國,所有通訊全部加密

  • Think about that.

    想想

  • Think about the innovation that went into that.

    想想所需的創新科技

  • Think about the infrastructure to build it.

    想想要這需要多龐大基層結構

  • And then think about this:

    然後再想想:

  • Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)

    為什麼在我的手機在舊金山還有訊號的死角 (笑聲)

  • How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)

    這怎麼搞的?(笑聲)一點道理都沒有(掌聲)

  • We consistently underestimate

    我們一直都低估

  • what criminals and terrorists can do.

    罪犯和恐怖份子的能力

  • Technology has made our world

    科技讓我們的世界

  • increasingly open, and for the most part,

    越來越開放,大致來說

  • that's great, but all of this openness

    這是好事,但我們的的開放

  • may have unintended consequences.

    也帶來意想不到的後果

  • Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.

    想想2008年發生於孟買的恐怖攻擊

  • The men that carried that attack out were armed

    恐怖份子配備有

  • with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.

    AK47步槍,炸藥,以及手榴彈

  • They threw these hand grenades

    他們把手榴彈

  • at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes

    扔到餐廳吃東西的無辜民眾群中

  • and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.

    扔到等火車回家的乘客們當中

  • But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.

    恐怖行動裡用重軍火並不稀奇

  • Guns and bombs are nothing new.

    槍枝和炸彈已屢見不鮮

  • What was different this time

    為什麼這一次不一樣

  • is the way that the terrorists used

    因為恐怖份子使用

  • modern information communications technologies

    現代資訊傳訊科技

  • to locate additional victims and slaughter them.

    幫他們找出更多的受害者,殺害他們

  • They were armed with mobile phones.

    他們都帶了手機

  • They had BlackBerries.

    他們用黑梅機

  • They had access to satellite imagery.

    他們能透過衛星接收照片

  • They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.

    他們用衛星電話,甚至用夜視鏡

  • But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.

    但他們最厲害的創新是這個:

  • We've all seen pictures like this

    我們都看過這樣的相片

  • on television and in the news. This is an operations center.

    在電視上,新聞報導裡。這是行動中控中心

  • And the terrorists built their very own op center

    恐怖份子也建構自己的中控中心

  • across the border in Pakistan,

    設在邊界的另一端,巴基斯坦

  • where they monitored the BBC,

    在那裡監視BBC的新聞

  • al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.

    半島電台,CNN,還有印度當地的廣播

  • They also monitored the Internet and social media

    他們也監視網際網路,以及社會媒體

  • to monitor the progress of their attacks

    掌控他們攻擊的進展

  • and how many people they had killed.

    統計他們殺害的人數

  • They did all of this in real time.

    全部都是即時掌控

  • The innovation of the terrorist operations center

    恐怖份子使用行動中控中心這項創新

  • gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness

    讓他們對事件當場的狀況精準掌握

  • and tactical advantage over the police

    享有遠優於警方,政府的戰術優勢

  • and over the government.

    這前所未見

  • What did they do with this?

    他們怎麼用這些科技呢?

  • They used it to great effect.

    非常有效果。

  • At one point during the 60-hour siege,

    在60小時僵持中,有一度

  • the terrorists were going room to room

    恐怖份子逐房搜索

  • trying to find additional victims.

    要找更多的受害者

  • They came upon a suite on the top floor

    他們到了旅館頂樓的一間套房

  • of the hotel, and they kicked down the door

    破門而入

  • and they found a man hiding by his bed.

    找到一個躲在床邊的男人

  • And they said to him, "Who are you,

    他們問他: "你是誰

  • and what are you doing here?"

    你到這裡做什麼?"

  • And the man replied,

    這人回答,

  • "I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."

    "我只是個無辜的老師"

  • Of course, the terrorists knew

    當然,這些恐怖份子知道

  • that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.

    印度的老師不可能住的起Taj的頂樓套房

  • They picked up his identification,

    他們拿他的身份證件

  • and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,

    打電話到他們的中控中心通報這男子的名字

  • where the terrorist war room Googled him,

    中控中心的人用Google搜索

  • and found a picture and called their operatives

    找到一張照片,然後回電給

  • on the ground and said,

    在旅館的恐怖份子,問他:

  • "Your hostage, is he heavyset?

    "你抓的人,是不是胖胖的,

  • Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"

    前額微禿?他戴眼鏡嗎?"

  • "Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.

    他回答:"是,對,有"

  • The op center had found him and they had a match.

    中控中心知道他是誰了

  • He was not a schoolteacher.

    他不是老師

  • He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,

    他是印度第二富有的商人

  • and after discovering this information,

    有了這項消息後

  • the terrorist war room gave the order

    中控中心下令

  • to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.

    對在孟買現場的恐怖份子下令

  • ("Kill him.")

    ("把他殺了")

  • We all worry about our privacy settings

    我們對我們在臉書上

  • on Facebook,

    隱私權設定都非常在意

  • but the fact of the matter is,

    但這裡的問題在

  • our openness can be used against us.

    我們的開放,可以被人拿來對付我們

  • Terrorists are doing this.

    恐怖份子就這麼幹

  • A search engine can determine

    搜索引擎可以決定

  • who shall live and who shall die.

    我們的生死

  • This is the world that we live in.

    這就是我們世界的現實

  • During the Mumbai siege,

    在孟買事件裡

  • terrorists were so dependent on technology

    恐怖份子非常依賴科技

  • that several witnesses reported that

    幾個目擊者描述

  • as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,

    這些恐怖份子一手用槍殺人

  • they were checking their mobile phone messages

    另一手拿著手機

  • in the very other hand.

    檢查收到的訊息

  • In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded

    最後,300人重傷

  • and over 172 men, women and children

    超過172人,男的,女的,小孩

  • lost their lives that day.

    喪失了生命

  • Think about what happened.

    想想

  • During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,

    在孟買的60個凶險小時

  • 10 men armed not just with weapons,

    10個人,配備了不只是武器

  • but with technology,

    還配備了科技

  • were able to bring a city of 20 million people

    能夠把一個2千萬人口的城市

  • to a standstill.

    陷入停滯

  • Ten people brought 20 million people

    10個人,讓2千萬人

  • to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.

    完全停滯,全世界都看到了

  • This is what radicals can do with openness.

    激進份子這般利用我們的開放

  • This was done nearly four years ago.

    這是將近四年前發生的事

  • What could terrorists do today

    今天的恐怖份子

  • with the technologies available that we have?

    又會如何利用最新的科技呢?

  • What will they do tomorrow?

    他們明天會怎麼做?

  • The ability of one to affect many

    一個人能影響許多人

  • is scaling exponentially,

    這種影響能力正以等比級數方式增加

  • and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.

    不管是好事,或是壞事,都一樣

  • It's not just about terrorism, though.

    這也不光只限於恐怖主義

  • There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.

    犯罪模式也產生變化

  • You see, you can now commit more crime as well.

    犯罪規模也變大了

  • In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.

    過去,我們用刀用槍

  • Then criminals moved to robbing trains.

    然後發展到搶火車

  • You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.

    能一次搶火車上200名乘客,這是一大創新

  • Moving forward, the Internet

    繼續到今日,有了網際網路

  • allowed things to scale even more.

    規模變的更大

  • In fact, many of you will remember

    其實,你們大都記得

  • the recent Sony PlayStation hack.

    最近發生的索尼PlayStation被駭事件

  • In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.

    超過1億的人被搶了

  • Think about that.

    想想

  • When in the history of humanity

    人類歷史上

  • has it ever been possible for one person

    什麼時候有過這種事

  • to rob 100 million?

    一個人搶1億個人?

  • Of course, it's not just about stealing things.

    當然,也不全只是偷東西

  • There are other avenues of technology

    還有其他科技

  • that criminals can exploit.

    罪犯們可以運用

  • Many of you will remember this super cute video

    你們大都記上次TED大會時

  • from the last TED,

    有段超Q的影片

  • but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.

    但並非所有四螺旋槳直昇機都這麼和善,這麼可愛

  • They don't all have drumsticks.

    有些配備的可不是打鼓棒

  • Some can be armed with HD cameras

    有些可以配備高解析度(HD)攝影機

  • and do countersurveillance on protesters,

    對抗議的人做反情搜

  • or, as in this little bit of movie magic,

    或者如這段影片顯示的

  • quadcopters can be loaded with firearms

    有些可配備槍械

  • and automatic weapons.

    自動武器

  • Little robots are cute when they play music to you.

    會播放音樂的小機器人很可愛

  • When they swarm and chase you down the block

    但當它們蜂擁而至,追著你在街上跑

  • to shoot you, a little bit less so.

    對你射擊,就不那麼可愛了

  • Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first

    當然,罪犯和恐怖主義份子沒有發明在機器人上裝置武器

  • to give guns to robots. We know where that started.

    我們都知道誰是始作俑者

  • But they're adapting quickly.

    但他們學的很快

  • Recently, the FBI arrested

    最近,聯邦調查局(FBI)在美國逮捕了

  • an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,

    一個凱達組織成員

  • who was planning on using these remote-controlled

    他計畫用這些遙控模型飛機

  • drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives

    裝上C4塑膠炸藥

  • into government buildings in the United States.

    攻擊美國的政府辦公大樓

  • By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.

    對了,這些飛機時速高達每小時600英里

  • Every time a new technology is being introduced,

    每當任何新科技發明了

  • criminals are there to exploit it.

    罪犯就想運用它們

  • We've all seen 3D printers.

    我們都看過3D列印裝置

  • We know with them that you can print

    用這些裝置

  • in many materials ranging from plastic

    配上不同材料,包括塑膠

  • to chocolate to metal and even concrete.

    巧克力,金屬,甚至混凝土

  • With great precision

    只要夠精細

  • I actually was able to make this

    我真的做出了這玩意

  • just the other day, a very cute little ducky.

    幾天前剛做的,非常可愛的小鴨

  • But I wonder to myself,

    但我進一步想

  • for those people that strap bombs to their chests

    對那些把炸彈綁在胸前

  • and blow themselves up,

    把自己炸死的炸彈客

  • how might they use 3D printers?

    他們會怎麼運用這些3D列表機

  • Perhaps like this.

    也許做這玩意

  • You see, if you can print in metal,

    看吧,只要能用金屬原料

  • you can print one of these,

    你就可以印出這個

  • and in fact

    其實

  • you can also print one of these too.

    你也可以印出這個東西

  • The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.

    英國的槍械管制法很嚴密

  • You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.

    你不需要帶枝槍到英國

  • You just bring the 3D printer

    只要帶3D列印機

  • and print the gun while you're here,

    在英國當地印製即可

  • and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.

    當然,也可以印製彈匣

  • But as these get bigger in the future,

    將來,這些裝置越來越大

  • what other items will you be able to print?

    他們可能會印製些什麼?

  • The technologies are allowing bigger printers.

    科技發展讓3D列印機越來越大

  • As we move forward,

    我們還在進步

  • we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.

    一直會有更新的科技,就像在網路上的發展

  • Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives

    每天都有新東西讓

  • to the Internet, which means

    我們的生活和網際網路連結更緊密

  • that the Internet of Things will soon be

    這也就是說,這些網際網路的發明

  • the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.

    很快也會被「駭」

  • All of the physical objects in our space

    我們生活周遭的具體事物

  • are being transformed into information technologies,

    都被轉化成為資訊科技

  • and that has a radical implication for our security,

    這對我們的安全有非常不同的意涵

  • because more connections to more devices

    因為我們連結的東西越多

  • means more vulnerabilities.

    代表越多的弱點

  • Criminals understand this.

    罪犯們懂

  • Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.

    恐怖主義份子懂。駭客也懂

  • If you control the code, you control the world.

    只要控制程式,你就控制世界

  • This is the future that awaits us.

    這是我們的將來

  • There has not yet been an operating system

    任何科技,任何作業系統

  • or a technology that hasn't been hacked.

    沒有不被「駭」過的

  • That's troubling, since the human body itself

    這讓人煩惱,因為人的身體

  • is now becoming an information technology.

    也變成了資訊科技

  • As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.

    就像這裡顯示的,我們把自己一步一步變成了生化機器人

  • Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,

    每年都有數以千計的人把內耳助聽器

  • diabetic pumps, pacemakers

    胰島素幫浦,心律調整器

  • and defibrillators are being implanted in people.

    以及心律復甦電擊器,植入身體

  • In the United States, there are 60,000 people

    在美國,有6萬人裝有和網路相連的

  • who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.

    心律調整器

  • The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance

    必要時,醫生可以在遠端

  • to give a shock to a heart

    用這些電擊復甦器