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  • Up, up we go, we're now back to strong dollar of the 1990s,

    一路爬升之後,我們回到了 1990 年代的強勢美元時期,

  • at the end of the day it overcomes all. why is it our exorbitant privilege?

    終究是船到橋頭自然直。為何那會是我們的過度特權呢?

  • I think exorbitant privilege in the sense the U.S. actually can get away with policies that no other country can,

    過度特權之所以存在,是因為美國得以採用其他國家都無法實施的政策,並可以全身而退。

  • I mean think about this, when the Fed was doing QE for five years,

    試想,在聯準會實施量化寬鬆的五年間,

  • other countries might have basically brought on a crisis, the U.S. on the other hand was able to watch the recovery off this.

    其他國家可能遭遇危機,但另一方面,美國卻可以靜觀其變。

  • So I think that's the main thing, but I think what we need to basically recognize is, there is now bifurcation of the dollar in the market.

    所以我想這是最主要的原因。但我們也需要認知到,美金在市場上面臨著兩種截然不同的狀況。

  • Dollars doing very well against EM currencies, against commodity currencies, but against the Euro and the Yen or the likes,

    美金在表現上大勝新興市場貨幣和商品貨幣,但是遭遇到歐元、日幣或其他貨幣時,

  • the dollar has been actually taking a bit of a back seat because the problem line is, as China devalues, China slows,

    美金就要屈居後位了。問題在於,人民幣一旦貶值,中國的經濟發展趨緩,

  • you know to the extent that it's gonna lead the Fed to basically hike more slowly,

    某種程度上,這使聯準會升息的步調趨緩,

  • this has not been such good news against the Euro.

    如果要和歐元抵抗,這可不是一個好消息。

  • OK, help me with your Yen callouts, three four and five years, where is Yen three four five years from now?

    借助一下你對日幣的預測,在未來的三到五年間,它的成長趨勢會如何呢?

  • I think the Yen is going to be a tad weaker, but I think the short-term, in fact if anything, the Yen is probably going to be stronger.

    日幣會呈現疲軟狀態。但我想短期內,如果沒有意外,它會變得越發強勢。

  • Think about it, going to tomorrow. If the Fed were to hike rates, the Yen is going to be stronger because the stock market is going to go down.

    你想,就以明天為例。如果聯準會決定升息,日幣也會因股市下跌而茁壯。

  • If the Fed doesn't hike rates, the Yen is probably going to be stronger too.

    即使聯準會不調升利率,日幣可能還是會越發強勢。

  • The differential between Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs, is to a weaker Yen,

    美銀美林與高盛之間的差別在於,它面對的是更無力的日幣,

  • through some further form of Abenomics, that implies a Rubin-like dollar, doesn't it?

    透過安倍經濟學

  • I think to some extent, yes, absolutely. But I think to the extent that the U.S. until now is willing to accept further Yen weakness,

    某個程度上來說沒錯。但我認為,儘管以前美國願意容忍日幣的疲弱不振,

  • but I think those days are coming to an end. I think somebody in Detroit is already calling up somebody in Washington, somebody in Washington is calling up...

    但我想那段日子就要結束了。某個在底特律(製造商)的人已經準備致電華府,而華盛頓方面則準備聯絡......

  • Exactly! This is my point, you know David Woo, that this is not solved by economists,

    正是如此!這就是我的論點,David Woo 你也知道這事情不是經濟學能解決的,

  • it's solved by manufacturers like Detroit, or frankly by the state department, isn't it?

    而是由像底特律這樣的製造商,或講白了,是由國務院經手,對嗎?

  • Absolutely, especially now with Donald Trump, and basically Mario, basically Rubio talking up, you know basically,

    完全正確,尤其在唐納川普、馬里奧.德拉吉(歐洲銀行行長)和馬可.盧比歐(美國總統參選人)的提倡下,

  • the whole story about China, Japan taking jobs away from the U.S., I think you have to believe that sooner or later the U.S. will be forced to join the currency war.

    你必須相信,遲早有一天,美國會被迫捲入這場貨幣戰爭當中。

  • I gotta ask this question, very critical here. Have you been advising Mr. Trump on economic policy?

    我必須問個有點犀利的問題。你是否有提供川普先生經濟政策的意見?

  • Not yet.

    還沒。

  • What you're talking about Trump and Rubio also to some extent,

    既然你提到川普和盧比歐,某個程度上來說,

  • it's the great American past-time to predict our own decline, but does anything threaten?

    美國人最大的消遣就是預估自己經濟的衰退,但是否有什麼威脅呢?

  • Anywhere in the future, this exorbitant privilege?

    將來是否有什麼會威脅這樣的過度特權?

  • Not, not really. I mean I think in fact this whole SDR business around China is a fig leaf.

    不,不完全。我認為中國的特別提款權只是一塊遮羞布。

  • In fact, if the U.S. is in an invariable position and nobody else is in right now.

    事實上,如果美國正處在一個屹立不搖的地位,那沒有任何國家能與我們並駕齊驅。

  • So there's no question the U.S. is coming back, however, the question is can the U.S. decouple from the rest of the world as the rest of the world slows.

    無疑地,美國會東山再起;但問題是,我們是否能在全球經濟一片慘澹的情況下別開生路呢?

  • And I think at what point will the U.S. be forced to join the currency war, because the dollar and the renminbi remain the two strongest currency in the world,

    美國之所以會被迫捲入貨幣戰爭,是因為美金和人民幣同為世界最強勢的兩大貨幣,

  • we'll just see what the Chinese, no longer the one with strong currency, the question is how much longer the U.S. will find a strong currency desirable.

    當中國不再擁有強勢貨幣後,問題就會變成,美國還要多久才會發現強勢貨幣的好處。

  • And because so much is invoiced in dollar as well, you know, the currency war works better for us than it does for anybody else.

    相對於其他國家來說,貨幣戰爭對我們更加有利。

  • Exactly. There is no question.

    完全正確,這是無庸置疑的。

  • Until? For our viewers out there that don't know Modigliani, or viewers who don't really understand reflation versus inflation,

    但直到何時?對那些不認識莫迪里安尼(義大利經濟學家),或分不清楚「通貨再膨脹」與「通貨膨脹」的觀眾來說,

  • what is the trip that turns us from a benevolent strong dollar into a troubled strong dollar?

    是怎樣一段曲折離奇的旅程,讓我們從博愛的強勢貨幣搖身一變,成為多災多難的強勢貨幣?

  • I think you know, honestly, this is where renminbi would devalue, which is my prediction,

    關於這點,我想你我都清楚,這正是人民幣會貶值的起點,而這也是我的預測。

  • I think my prediction is that the biggest story in the next six months is gonna be an acceleration in the renminbi devaluation,

    我的預測是,在往後六個月內,最大的新聞會是人民幣的加速貶值,

  • that's gonna basically create competitive devaluation around the world,

    而這將會造成全球性的競爭性貶值:

  • commodity prices are gonna come down sharply, it's gonna be highly deflation for the U.S. That's where the problem is.

    物價將會迅速的下跌,美國將會進入高度通貨緊縮的狀態。這就是問題所在。

  • Okay, David Woo, thank you so much with this core call of a second derivative of what we will see in the Yen,

    David Woo,感謝你參與我們的討論,讓我們得以聚焦在日幣的展望上,

  • we've got calculus into the six o'clock hour, that's cool.

    *我們在六點鐘的時候有微積分,這真是太酷了。

Up, up we go, we're now back to strong dollar of the 1990s,

一路爬升之後,我們回到了 1990 年代的強勢美元時期,

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 日幣 貨幣 強勢 人民幣 聯準會 貶值

【彭博商業】為什麼美國的貨幣政策特立獨行? (Why Can U.S. Have Policies No Other Countries Can?)

  • 2002 111
    Ray Du   發佈於 2015 年 09 月 16 日
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