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  • This is my first time at TED. Normally, as an advertising man,

    這是我第一次來到TED。通常,作為一個廣告人,

  • I actually speak at TED Evil, which is TED's secret sister

    我在TED Evil(邪惡TED)演講,這是TED的秘密姐妹組織--

  • that pays all the bills.

    為所有費用買單。

  • It's held every two years in Burma.

    TED Evil每兩年在緬甸舉行一次。

  • And I particularly remember a really good speech

    有一場非常精彩的演講尤其令我印象深刻。

  • by Kim Jong Il on how to get teens smoking again.

    金正日(Kim Jong II)談論如何能讓青少年再度吸煙。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • But, actually, it's suddenly come to me after years working in the business,

    但實際上,在廣告界工作多年後,我突然發現,

  • that what we create in advertising,

    我們在廣告中創造的是,

  • which is intangible value -- you might call it perceived value,

    無形價值--也可以叫作感知價值,

  • you might call it badge value, subjective value,

    或者標識價值,主觀價值,

  • intangible value of some kind --

    某種形式的無形價值--

  • gets rather a bad rap.

    時常得到負面評價。

  • If you think about it, if you want to live in a world in the future

    設想一下,如果將來你想生活在

  • where there are fewer material goods, you basically have two choices.

    物質相對缺乏的世界,基本上你有兩個選擇。

  • You can either live in a world which is poorer,

    你可以生活在相對貧窮的世界,

  • which people in general don't like.

    一般人都不喜歡這個選擇。

  • Or you can live in a world where actually intangible value

    或者,你可以生活在無形價值構成

  • constitutes a greater part of overall value,

    總體價值很大比重的世界,

  • that actually intangible value, in many ways

    事實上,無形價值在很多方面

  • is a very, very fine substitute

    能很好地替代

  • for using up labor or limited resources

    有限的人力或資源

  • in the creation of things.

    用來創造產品。

  • Here is one example. This is a train which goes from London to Paris.

    這裏有個例子。這是一輛從倫敦開往巴黎的火車。

  • The question was given to a bunch of engineers,

    15年前,工程師們遇到一個問題,

  • about 15 years ago, "How do we make the journey to Paris better?"

    “如何能改善倫敦至巴黎之旅”

  • And they came up with a very good engineering solution,

    他們想出了一個非常好的工程解決方案,

  • which was to spend six billion pounds

    即花費60億英鎊

  • building completely new tracks

    在倫敦和蔚藍海岸之間

  • from London to the coast,

    建造全新的軌道,

  • and knocking about 40 minutes off a three-and-half-hour journey time.

    使三個半小時的旅程減少40分鐘。

  • Now, call me Mister Picky. I'm just an ad man ...

    現在,大家可以叫我挑剔先生。我只是個廣告人...

  • ... but it strikes me as a slightly unimaginative way of improving a train journey

    但依我看,作為改善火車之旅的方法,這不免有些缺乏想像力

  • merely to make it shorter.

    如果僅僅是縮短行程的話。

  • Now what is the hedonic opportunity cost

    那麼花費60億建造鐵軌的

  • on spending six billion pounds on those railway tracks?

    快樂機會成本是多少呢?

  • Here is my naive advertising man's suggestion.

    作為一個天真的廣告人,我的建議是:

  • What you should in fact do is employ all of the world's top male

    實際上應該把所有世界頂級的男模,

  • and female supermodels,

    和女模請來,

  • pay them to walk the length of the train, handing out free Chateau Petrus

    在旅途的全程走秀,免費發放波得路堡紅葡萄酒

  • for the entire duration of the journey.

    直到旅程結束。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • Now, you'll still have about three billion pounds left in change,

    這樣的話,還能省下三十億英鎊左右,

  • and people will ask for the trains to be slowed down.

    而且人們反而還會要求火車開的慢點。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • Now, here is another naive advertising man's question again.

    現在,我這個天真的廣告人又要提一個問題了。

  • And this shows that engineers,

    剛才的例子說明,工程師、

  • medical people, scientific people,

    醫生和科學家,

  • have an obsession with solving the problems of reality,

    都執迷於解決現實問題,

  • when actually most problems, once you reach a basic level of wealth

    而實際上,當人們在社會中達到了一定的財富水準,

  • in society, most problems are actually problems of perception.

    大多數問題其實是感知上的問題。

  • So I'll ask you another question.

    所以,我要再問你們一個問題。

  • What on earth is wrong with placebos?

    百憂解到底有什麼不妥?

  • They seem fantastic to me. They cost very little to develop.

    我覺得這個主意太棒了。不僅研製成本很低,

  • They work extraordinarily well.

    而且效果非常好,

  • They have no side effects,

    還無副作用,

  • or if they do, they're imaginary, so you can safely ignore them.

    如果有的話,也只是你的想像,完全可以忽略它。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • So I was discussing this. And I actually went to the Marginal Revolution blog

    所以我開始與人討論這個問題。我還到泰勒·考恩(Tyler Cowen)名為邊際革命的部落格上留言。

  • by Tyler Cowen. I don't know if anybody knows it.

    我不知道是否有人知道。

  • Someone was actually suggesting that you can take this concept further,

    實際上,有人建議把這一概念帶到更深的層面,

  • and actually produce placebo education.

    發展安慰教育。

  • The point is that education doesn't actually work by teaching you things.

    這一觀點認為,教育的作用並不是通過教授知識而產生的。

  • It actually works by giving you the impression

    而是通過讓人們產生其已接受良好教育的印象而產生的。

  • that you've had a very good education, which gives you an insane sense

    這種印象給人們不切實際的

  • of unwarranted self-confidence,

    強烈信心

  • which then makes you very, very successful in later life.

    並使他們在今後的生活中非常成功。

  • So, welcome to Oxford, ladies and gentlemen.

    所以,女士們先生們,歡迎來到牛津大學。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • But, actually, the point of placebo education is interesting.

    但實際上,安慰教育背後的觀點很有趣。

  • How many problems of life can be solved

    生活中有多少問題

  • actually by tinkering with perception,

    能通過改變感知來解決,

  • rather than that tedious, hardworking and messy business

    而不是通過既乏味又辛苦的努力

  • of actually trying to change reality?

    改變現實?

  • Here's a great example from history. I've heard this attributed to several other kings,

    歷史上有個很好的例子。我聽說有人把這件事被歸功於其他幾個國王,

  • but doing a bit of historical research,

    但我做了一些歷史研究,

  • it seems to be Fredrick the Great.

    應該發生在弗雷德里克大帝身上。

  • Fredrick the Great of Prussia was very, very keen

    普魯士的弗雷德里克大帝一度非常希望

  • for the Germans to adopt the potato and to eat it,

    德國人接受馬鈴薯,食用馬鈴薯。

  • because he realized that if you had two sources of carbohydrate,

    因為他認為,如果有小麥和馬鈴薯這兩種碳水化合物的來源,

  • wheat and potatoes, you get less price volatility in bread.

    可以減少麵包價格的動盪。

  • And you get a far lower risk of famine,

    同時,也可以大大降低發生饑荒的風險,

  • because you actually had two crops to fall back on, not one.

    因為有兩種作物可以依靠,而不是一種。

  • The only problem is: potatoes, if you think about it, look pretty disgusting.

    唯一的問題是:馬鈴薯,如果大家想一想,看上去相當醜。

  • And also, 18th century Prussians ate very, very few vegetables --

    而且,18世紀的普魯士人吃非常非常少的蔬菜--

  • rather like contemporary Scottish people.

    很像現在的蘇格蘭人。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • So, actually, he tried making it compulsory.

    於是,他最後採取了強制的措施。

  • The Prussian peasantry said,

    普魯士的農民們說:

  • "We can't even get the dogs to eat these damn things.

    “我們甚至沒辦法讓狗吃這些噁心的東西。

  • They are absolutely disgusting and they're good for nothing."

    這些馬鈴薯令人作嘔,而且毫無用處。”

  • There are even records of people being executed

    甚至有許許多多的人由於拒絕種植馬鈴薯

  • for refusing to grow potatoes.

    而被處死。

  • So he tried plan B.

    於是,他又想了另一個辦法。

  • He tried the marketing solution, which is he declared the potato

    他採取了行銷的手段,宣佈馬鈴薯是宮廷御用蔬菜。

  • as a royal vegetable, and none but the royal family could consume it.

    只有皇室家族成員才能享用。

  • And he planted it in a royal potato patch,

    他在一片皇家馬鈴薯地中種植馬鈴薯,

  • with guards who had instructions

    並派侍衛

  • to guard over it, night and day,

    日夜加以看守,

  • but with secret instructions not to guard it very well.

    但卻密令他們無需太過認真。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • Now, 18th century peasants know that there is one

    18世紀的農民們懂得一個生活常識,

  • pretty safe rule in life, which is if something is worth guarding,

    那就是值得看守的東西,

  • it's worth stealing.

    也值得偷。

  • Before long, there was a massive underground

    不久,德國就出現了規模宏大的

  • potato-growing operation in Germany.

    地下馬鈴薯種植。

  • What he'd effectively done is he'd re-branded the potato.

    他非常成功的重塑了馬鈴薯的品牌形象。

  • It was an absolute masterpiece.

    這絕對是一個經典。

  • I told this story and a gentleman from Turkey came up to me and said,

    我講述了這個故事然後一位來自土耳其的先生過來找我說,

  • "Very, very good marketer, Fredrick the Great. But not a patch on Ataturk."

    “非常非常好的行銷,Fredrick太偉大了。不過和Ataturk比起來還差早了。”

  • Ataturk, rather like Nicolas Sarkozy,

    Ataturk,和Nicolas Sarkozy(法國總統)很像。

  • was very keen to discourage the wearing of a veil,

    非常渴望拋棄土耳其社會戴面紗的習慣,

  • in Turkey, to modernize it.

    使其具有現代氣息。

  • Now, boring people would have just simply banned the veil.

    那麼,沒創意的人可能就會簡單的禁止佩戴面紗。

  • But that would have ended up with a lot of awful kickback

    但是那會以強烈的負面反響而告終

  • and a hell of a lot of resistance.

    以及鋪天蓋地的抵制。

  • Ataturk was a lateral thinker.

    Ataturk運用橫向思維進行思考。

  • He made it compulsory for prostitutes to wear the veil.

    他規定妓女必須佩戴面紗。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • I can't verify that fully, but it does not matter.

    我並不能完全證實這個的真實性。不過這並沒關係。

  • There is your environmental problem solved, by the way, guys:

    (關鍵是)社會環境問題解決了,順便提一句,各位:

  • All convicted child molesters

    所有被判刑的猥褻兒童者

  • have to drive a Porsche Cayenne.

    必須駕駛保時捷休旅車。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • What Ataturk realized actually is two very fundamental things.

    Ataturk揭示的實際是兩個基本事實。

  • Which is that, actually, first one,

    其中,實際上,第一個是,

  • all value is actually relative.

    所有的價值都是相對價值。

  • All value is perceived value.

    所有的價值都是感知價值。

  • For those of you who don't speak Spanish, jugo de naranja -- it's actually the Spanish for "orange juice."

    對於不會西班牙語的人,jugo de naranja--實際上就是西班牙語中“橘子汁”的意思。

  • Because actually it's not the dollar. It's actually the peso

    因為實際上那不是美元,而是比索

  • in Buenos Aires. Very clever Buenos Aires street vendors

    在布宜諾賽利斯,非常聰明的街頭售貨商

  • decided to practice price discrimination

    決定實踐一下這種價格歧視

  • to the detriment of any passing gringo tourists.

    用來占任何一個路過的美國佬的便宜。

  • As an advertising man, I have to admire that.

    作為一個廣告人,我不能不對此表示欽佩。

  • But the first thing is that all value is subjective.

    不過這一切都說明了第一個道理,也就是所有的價值都是主觀的。

  • Second point is that persuasion is often better than compulsion.

    第二點是說服往往要比強制更有效。

  • These funny signs that flash your speed at you,

    這些有趣的標誌在你瞬間路過的時候顯示出即時速度,

  • some of the new ones, on the bottom right,

    有一些新的標誌,右下方,

  • now actually show a smiley face or a frowny face,

    實際上顯示的是笑臉或者皺眉臉,

  • to act as an emotional trigger.

    實際上在情緒層面觸發共鳴。

  • What's fascinating about these signs is they cost about 10 percent

    這些標誌的了不起的地方在於,它們僅僅花費了傳統超速相機

  • of the running cost of a conventional speed camera,

    十分之一的成本。

  • but they prevent twice as many accidents.

    卻阻止了兩倍數量的事故的發生。

  • So, the bizarre thing, which is baffling

    所以,這種奇怪的事情困擾著

  • to conventional, classically trained economists,

    傳統的,古典主義經濟學家,

  • is that a weird little smiley face

    也就是一個奇怪的微笑著的小頭像

  • has a better effect on changing your behavior

    在改變個人行為上的作用

  • than the threat of a £60 fine and three penalty points.

    比60英鎊的罰款和給予3個點數的罰分還要有效。

  • Tiny little behavioral economics detail:

    一個很小的行為經濟學的細節:

  • in Italy, penalty points go backwards.

    在義大利,罰分制度恰恰相反。

  • You start with 12 and they take them away.

    從12分起,逐漸減少。

  • Because they found that loss aversion

    因為人們發現厭惡因素的減少

  • is a more powerful influence on people's behavior.

    在影響人們行為上具有更大的作用。

  • In Britain we tend to feel, "Whoa! Got another three!"

    在英國我們往往會想,“哇哦,又吃了3分!”

  • Not so in Italy.

    但是在義大利卻不是這樣。

  • Another fantastic case of creating intangible value

    還有一個講述創造無形價值來代替物質價值的

  • to replace actual or material value, which remember, is what,

    極好例子,就是,

  • after all, the environmental movement needs to be about:

    終究,環保運動會觸及的問題:

  • This again is from Prussia, from, I think, about 1812, 1813.

    這個,同樣,還是來自普魯士,我想,大概1812或1813年左右。

  • The wealthy Prussians, to help in the war against the French,

    富裕的普魯士人,為了在普法戰爭中取得優勢,

  • were encouraged to give in all their jewelry.

    被鼓勵捐出他們的全部珠寶。

  • And it was replaced with replica jewelry

    然後用以生鐵鑄造的珠寶的

  • made of cast iron.

    複製品代替。

  • Here's one: "Gold gab ich für Eisen, 1813."

    瞧這個:“Gold gab ich für Eisen,1813年。”

  • The interesting thing is that for 50 years hence,

    有趣的事情是從這之後的50年,

  • the highest status jewelry you could wear in Prussia

    普魯士社會最高等級的珠寶

  • wasn't made of gold or diamonds.

    不是金製或鑽石製。

  • It was made of cast iron.

    而是生鐵製。

  • Because actually, never mind the actual intrinsic value

    因為事實上,不考慮實際的內在價值

  • of having gold jewelry. This actually

    比如金珠寶。這件珠寶

  • had symbolic value, badge value.

    具有象徵價值,標記價值。

  • It said that your family had made a great sacrifice in the past.

    它象徵著你的家庭在過去做出過很大的貢獻。

  • So, the modern equivalent would of course be this.

    所以,在現代社會等價的東西應該類似這種。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • But, actually, there is a thing, just as there are Veblen goods,

    不過,事實上,有一種商品,正如一種叫做Veblen商品的東西,

  • where the value of the good depends on it being expensive and rare --

    它的價值取決於本身的昂貴和稀有--

  • there are opposite kind of things

    而它們是恰恰相反的一類東西

  • where actually the value in them depends on them being

    其價值恰恰在於它們本身的

  • ubiquitous, classless and minimalistic.

    普通性,大眾化和簡單性。

  • If you think about it, Shakerism was a proto-environmental movement.

    如果你想一想的話,震顫派宗教儀式是一種原始的環保運動。

  • Adam Smith talks about 18th century America,

    Adam Smith談論到18世紀的美國

  • where the prohibition against visible displays of wealth was so great,

    當時抵制物質上的可視財富的運動如火如荼,

  • it was almost a block in the economy in New England,

    幾乎對新英格蘭的經濟發展造成了阻礙,

  • because even wealthy farmers could find nothing to spend their money on

    因為即使是富裕的農民也不知道該把錢花在哪,

  • without incurring the displeasure of their neighbors.

    除非招致鄰居的鄙夷。

  • It's perfectly possible to create these social pressures

    創造一種有利於社會平等的輿論壓力

  • which lead to more egalitarian societies.

    是完全可能的。

  • What's also interesting, if you look at products

    同樣有趣的是,如果你仔細觀察

  • that have a high component

    高科技部件組成的產品

  • of what you might call messaging value,

    或許你們會叫做資訊價值,

  • a high component of intangible value, versus their intrinsic value:

    這類元件高度集成了無形價值,而不是內在價值:

  • They are often quite egalitarian.

    它們經常很好的詮釋了平等主義。

  • In terms of dress, denim is perhaps the perfect example of something

    就服裝而言,牛仔布或許是詮釋象徵價值(而不是物質價值)

  • which replaces material value with symbolic value.

    的最好的例子了。

  • Coca-Cola. A bunch of you may be a load of pinkos,

    可口可樂。也許你們中的某些人是傾左派的,

  • and you may not like the Coca-Cola company,

    或許你並不喜歡可口可樂公司。

  • but it's worth remembering Andy Warhol's point about Coke.

    不過Andy Warhol對於它的評價卻十分耐人尋味。

  • What Warhol said about Coke is, he said,

    他說,

  • "What I really like about Coca-Cola is the president of the United States

    “我之所以愛可口可樂是因為即使是美國總統喝的可樂

  • can't get a better Coke than the bum on the corner of the street."

    也和街邊流浪漢手中的可樂別無二樣。”

  • Now, that is, actually, when you think about it -- we take it for granted --

    實際上如果你仔細想想的話,我們都把它當做理所當然了--

  • it's actually a remarkable achievement,

    但實際上是很了不起的成就,

  • to produce something that's that democratic.

    如此民主的一種產品。

  • Now, we basically have to change our views slightly.

    那麼,我們需要把自己的看法稍微轉變一下。

  • There is a basic view that real value involves making things,

    基本的看法是(產品的)實際價值包括製作的過程,

  • involves labor. It involves engineering.

    包括勞動力。如工程設計。

  • It involves limited raw materials.

    包括有限的原材料。

  • And that what we add on top is kind of false. It's a fake version.

    現在我們要加上一種好像虛化的東西。好像是不真實的。

  • And there is a reason for some suspicion and uncertainly about it.

    當然許多的懷疑和不確定是有原因的。

  • It patently veers toward propaganda.

    顯然這個因素就是宣傳作用。

  • However, what we do have now

    然而,我們現在擁有的

  • is a much more variegated media ecosystem

    是一個更加多樣化的媒介環境

  • in which to kind of create this kind of value, and it's much fairer.

    在其中我們創造這種價值。這樣就合理多了。

  • When I grew up, this was basically the media environment of my childhood

    當我長大了,我小時候的媒體環境差不多是這樣的

  • as translated into food.

    可以理解為食物。

  • You had a monopoly supplier. On the left,

    左邊這個,是唯一的提供者。

  • you have Rupert Murdoch, or the BBC.

    當時還有Rupert Murdoch,或者BBC。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • And on your right you have a dependent public

    右邊是依賴性很強的大眾

  • which is pathetically grateful for anything you give it.

    可憐的是,無論你提供什麼,他都會心存感激。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • Nowadays, the user is actually involved.

    現如今,用戶都已經進化了。

  • This is actually what's called, in the digital world, "user-generated content."

    這個在數碼世界裏,實際上叫做“用戶為中心的實體。”

  • Although it's called agriculture in the world of food.

    儘管叫做農業,在食物這個角度看。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • This is actually called a mash-up,

    這個實際上叫做“糅合”,

  • where you take content that someone else has produced

    也就是你以其他人的生產結果為起點

  • and you do something new with it.

    創造出新的東西。

  • In the world of food we call it cooking.

    在食物的角度來看我們叫它烹飪。

  • This is food 2.0,

    這個叫食物2.0版本,

  • which is food you produce for the purpose of sharing it with other people.

    也就是以與其他人分享為目的而生產食物。