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  • Let's say Mr. Blue, and Ms. Red have each been arrested for some minor crime. The police

    假設藍先生與紅小姐因輕微犯罪而遭警方逮捕

  • think they committed a more serious crime but they don't have enough evidence to convict

    警方認為他們涉嫌某件重大犯罪,但卻因證據不足而無法證明兩人有罪

  • them. They need a confession. They take them and put them in separate rooms so they can't

    警方需要其中一人自首招供。警方將兩人分別安置於不同房間避免交談

  • talk, and play a little game. To try to force a confession the police give

    並且進行一項小遊戲。為了順利讓其中一人招供,警方分別給予兩人選擇權

  • them each a choice. Admit your partner committed the crime, and you will go free. We'll pardon

    只要你供出對方的罪行,就能重獲自由之身

  • you for the minor crime but your partner will have to spend 3 years in prison. If you stay

    警方會寬恕你犯下的輕微罪行,但對方會被判入獄3年

  • silent and your partner lets us know that you were the one who really did it then you're

    如果你選擇沉默,而夥伴選擇供出你的話,那麼你就會因此入獄3年

  • going to have to go away for 3 years. They know that the police don't have any evidence

    他們知道警方沒有任何證據

  • and if they both stay silent then they will only go to prison for 1 year each for the

    所以只要兩人都保持沉默,那麼就只會因涉嫌輕微犯罪而被判1年刑期

  • minor crime. If they both betray each other then they'll both go to prison for 2 years

    如果雙方皆選擇背叛對方,那麼兩人都會被判2年刑期

  • each. OK, each partner can do 1 of 2 things. Stay

    好,雙方都有二條路可選,保持沉默或是選擇背叛對方

  • Silent, or Betray. Staying silent would be cooperating and betraying would be defecting.

    保持沉默需要攜手合作,背叛則需出賣對方

  • If they both stay silent, they each spend a year in prison. If one betrays and the other

    如果雙方皆選擇保持沉默,那麼兩人只要坐牢1年;如果背叛對方,對方選擇保持沉默

  • stays silent, then the betrayer goes free and the silent spends 3 years in prison. If

    那麼自己則會重拾自由,對方則需坐牢3年

  • they both betray then it's 2 years each. So what are they going to do? Well they should

    如果互相背叛對方,那麼兩人都要坐牢2年。所以他們會怎麼做? 他們勢必要攜手合作

  • cooperate. That's the best option for the group, if we add the total number of years

    從刑期的長短來看,這才是對彼此最好的選擇

  • in prison. But let's take it from Red's perspective.

    但是我們試著站在紅小姐的立場來思考

  • If she thinks blue is going to stay silent, then she should betray so she can go free.

    如果她認為男方會保持沉默,那麼她可以選擇供出對方罪刑,那麼自己就能重獲自由

  • Going free is better than a year in prison. If she thinks he's going to betray her then

    重獲自由比吃1年牢飯還要好。如果她認為男方會出賣她的話

  • she should definitely betray, 2 years in jail is better than 3 and being made a fool of.

    那她也應該選擇出賣對方,畢竟2年牢飯比當個笨蛋被害成3年來得好

  • Blue is in the exact same situation and will think the exact same thing, he should betray

    藍先生的處境也一樣,所以也會有相同考量

  • if she stays silent and he should betray if she betrays.

    假設女方保持沉默,自己則應該選擇供出女方罪刑;而假設女方選擇出賣,自己則應該選擇出賣

  • They should have both cooperated, but from an individual stand point they noticed they

    他們必須共同合作,但是從單獨立場來看,如果不曉得對方會怎麼做

  • could always gain by defecting. If they have no control over what the other person is going

    出賣對方才是上策

  • to do. So they'll both defect to try to better their own situation. But come away not only

    所以他們都會試圖出賣對方改善自己的處境,但一旦背叛對方

  • hurting the group, but themselves. Individually they're worse off than if they both cooperated.

    不僅只是整個群體會受影響,自己也會完蛋。如果沒有共同合作,彼此的處境可能會變得更糟

  • This situation is pretty made up, but it has some real world analogues. A common example

    雖然這樣的情境是假設出來的,但現實生活中也時常發生。最常見的例子是市場行銷

  • is with marketing . Let's say 2 cigarette companies, Red Strikes,

    讓我們假設有兩家菸廠,紅A與藍B

  • and Smooth blue, are deciding how much money they should spend on advertising. Since the

    兩廠在商討要花多少錢打廣告

  • product they each make is identical to one another, advertising has a huge impact on

    因為他們的產品幾乎一模一樣,所以打廣告會對銷售帶來顯著的影響

  • sales. For simplicity let's say their choices are: to advertise a bunch, or not advertise

    同樣地,他們有兩個選項:打廣告、或不打廣告

  • at all. And there's just 100 people in this society and they all smoke. If both don't

    假設這個社會上只有一千個人,且全都吸菸

  • advertise, then just by random chance picking cigarette boxes, 50 people buy Red Strikes

    不打廣告的情況下消費者會隨機購買,50人會買紅A廠製

  • and 50 people buy Smooth blue. At $2 a pack they each make $100. Let's say advertising

    另外50人則會買藍B廠製。如果一包菸賣2元,那麼兩廠各能賺進100元

  • costs $30. If one person advertises and the other does not, then 80 people will buy the

    但假設廣告費用是30元,且其中一家打廣告,另一家不打的情況下,會有80人買有打廣告的

  • cigarettes from the ads and 20 people buy the other ones. The advertiser makes $160

    其餘20人買沒打廣告的。紅A廠因打廣告賺進了160元

  • minus $30 for ads, and comes away with $130. The non advertiser didn't spend money, but

    扣除30元的廣告費,能賺到130元。而沒花錢打廣告的B廠則受影響僅賺進40元

  • only made $40. If they both advertise, again half will buy Red Strikes, and half will buy

    如果兩家都花錢打廣告,那麼消費者的購買機率又回到50: 50

  • Smooth blue. But since they both spent $30 on advertising, they only come away with only

    但因為花了30元打廣告的關係,最終兩家都只賺進70元

  • $70 each. Same deal, both people cooperating and not

    一樣的概念,選擇攜手合作且不打廣告的話就能夠達到

  • advertising is the most preferable situation, but both company can see that advertising

    雙贏的局面。但是對兩家來說,打廣告能幫公司賺進更多錢

  • will always make them more money. But unlike the prisoner's in jail, these companies

    但不同於入獄服刑的犯人,這兩家公司能夠進行溝通協調

  • can talk and try to influence each other. From here Blue would be better off if Red

    並且嘗試影響對方。只要雙方都沒打廣告,兩邊都有錢賺

  • didn't advertise. Red wouldn't go for that because that would be worse for them.

    但是對紅A廠來說,甚麼都不做的情況下銷售可能變差

  • Blue could try to convince Red that they would both not advertise, the only other situation

    藍B廠可以選擇說服A: 兩邊都不打廣告的話,對兩邊都好

  • where they're both better off. But without any real obligation to each other, there's

    但如果沒有實質約束的話

  • nothing that's stopping them from trying to advertise to gain more of the market anyway.

    就沒有甚麼能夠阻止對方打廣告賺大錢

  • If you think your opponent's going to not advertise, you're better off advertising.

    所以如果覺得對手不會打廣告,那你最好選擇打廣告

  • Although we're still making assumptions to make this situation work too. With this model

    畢竟這只是我們假設出來的情境。在這樣的情境下

  • we're assuming they only play once. The game changes when the players have a chance to

    我們只假設發生一次。當玩家們有機會建立關係,遊戲規則就會改變。只要一起合作

  • build a relationship and work together to get more gains over time, or punish each other

    就能一起賺大錢;當然也可以搞對方,選擇不配合

  • by not cooperating. Also to make the model work we have to make

    為了讓這模擬情境能夠運作,我們必須制定遊戲規則來規範玩家

  • up rules for the players. Assume they're basically computer programs with predictable actions.

    假設玩家都是電腦,且所有行為都是設定好的

  • These guys are creepier than they were in my head. They were supposed to be cute.

    沒想到電腦卻會讓人感到可怕,它們應該是善良可愛的才對

  • For the prisoner's dilemma and other similar models, we're assuming they are Rational Agents.

    在囚徒困境和類似情境中,我們假設登場人物都是理性動物

  • A rational agent is a hypothetical person that will always pick the option that they

    理性動物能透過思考來選出自己認為是最好的答案

  • predict will work out best for them. They're not really thinking about the gains of someone

    且不會管他人是死是活

  • else. Seems selfish but it something that real people will generally do too. People

    聽起來很自私但這對人類來說是很平常的事

  • always want what's best for themselves and we don't like to made a fool of.

    人們會總是希望選擇對自己好的選項,而且不喜歡他人被玩弄股掌間

  • But if you put real people in the prisoner's dilemma, people don't always defect like the

    但如果將一個人放在囚徒困境中,他並不會每次都照模擬走,選擇背叛對方

  • model predicts. In one study, 40 people playing prisoner's

    某項研究報告顯示,將40個人放在囚徒困境中

  • dilemma games, through a computer, without ever meeting or talking, only playing each

    透過電腦模擬,在沒有見面、交談的情況下,若任一位玩家只能只玩一次

  • opponent once, these are one off games, using a payoff matrix that looks like this, cooperated

    讓全部玩家都玩過之後,結果就會像這張得失矩陣一樣,合作機率為22%

  • an averaged 22% of the time. These people never cooperated. These are people always

    這項表示玩家遊戲中不曾與他人合作,而這項表示玩家總是選擇合作

  • cooperated. These guys cooperated on half of their games and everyone else is in between.

    這項表示玩家在遊戲過程中有一半情形是選擇與他人合作,其他則成不規則分布

  • This is a lot of cooperation coming from a model that predicts no cooperation.

    在原本預測不會合作的情境下,竟出現了許多次合作

  • The largest group did act like rational agents, but most people tried to cooperate at least

    雖然最大群體的確有像同理性動物般地做出決定,但大多數的人卻最少會嘗試與他人進行合作一次

  • once. It's because there's more to real people.

    因為人類不僅擁有理性思維

  • We are social creatures and even in a one off scenario with no guarantees and obligations

    人類是社交型動物,即是在沒有保證、沒有任何義務、沒有任何機會與他人建立關係的單次情境下

  • and no chance to build a relationship, we're still thinking about how the group might decide.

    我們仍會思考別人可能做出甚麼選擇

  • We're actually thinking from the perspective of the group, and making an optimistic decision.

    我們會站在群體的觀點思考,然後做出一個正面樂觀的決定

  • Cooperating an average of 20% of the time might not seem very optimistic, but remember

    合作的機率是20%,聽起來雖然不太樂觀

  • this is with absolutely no communication or obligations.

    但記得這機率的先決條件是完全無法溝通、或是責任歸屬

  • Anyways, that's not really the point. Using the rational agent is still useful. The model

    這不是今天的重點。用理性動物來情境演練還是有效的

  • is just trying to point out the dilemma of certain specific situation where people actually

    這情境只是要演算某種特定情形的結果為何,但事實上人們會不自覺的只想到自己

  • hurting themselves when counter-intuitively, they're only thinking about themselves...

    然後選擇傷害對方

  • and that's why we're modelling using the cold robotic psychopaths.

    這就是為什麼我們要設定玩家為冷血無情的心理病態

Let's say Mr. Blue, and Ms. Red have each been arrested for some minor crime. The police

假設藍先生與紅小姐因輕微犯罪而遭警方逮捕

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囚徒的困境解讀。 (The Prisoner's Dilemma Explained)

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