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  • Mention the name Herbert Hoover, the 31st President of the United States, and you probably

    說到赫伯特.胡佛,第31屆美國總統

  • think "Great Depression." Here's how the usual narrative goes:

    你大概會想到「大蕭條」。通常故事是這麼說的

  • The stock market crashes in October of 1929. Hoover, a Republican, refuses to intervene.

    股市在1929年的10月崩盤。胡佛,身為一個共和黨人,拒絕干涉

  • Instead, he lets the free market deal with the problem

    反之,他讓自由市場來解決問題

  • and the economic downturn morphs into a catastrophic decline.

    結果經濟一蹶不振

  • Well, the Stock Market did crash in 1929 and the economic downturn that followed did lead

    好吧,股市確實是在1929年時垮了,隨之而來的經濟低迷時期

  • into the Great Depression, but it wasn't because Hoover was a small government man like his

    也造成了大蕭條,但這不是因為胡佛如同前任總統

  • predecessor, Calvin Coolidge. It was just the opposite. My research shows that it was

    卡爾文.柯立芝那樣的保守。正好相反。我的研究顯示

  • Hoover's incessant meddling -- not the mistaken view that he did nothing -- that provoked the Great Depression.

    因為胡佛不斷地介入經濟-錯誤的觀點以為他甚麼都沒有做-而造成了大蕭條

  • Hoover, a good man with magnanimous instincts, was a successful mining engineer before he

    胡佛,一個天性雅量的好人,在還未從政之前是個成功的採礦工程師

  • got into government. He believed that almost anything could be engineered, and he brought

    他相信多數的事物都可被開採,他也將

  • that philosophy to the economic crisis of 1929. As a result, he was the wrong man for

    此哲理帶入1929年的經濟危機。結果,作為總統一職

  • the job at exactly the wrong time. For starters, Hoover distrusted the free market.

    並沒有天時地利人和。對於創業者,胡佛對自由市場有疑慮

  • He knew that unfettered competition forces companies to reduce prices;

    他知道自由競爭會迫使行業壓低產品價格

  • but, he believed, lower prices lead to lower wages.

    但是,他也知道,產品的低價造成低廉的工資

  • In November of 1929, shortly after the stock market swoon, Hoover called a meeting with

    1929年的11月,就在股市低迷不久後,胡佛召集了會議

  • the CEOs of major American industry. Henry Ford of Ford Motor, Alfred Sloan of GM,

    與重要的美國工業執行長商討對策。福特汽車的亨利.福特、美國通用汽車公司的艾福列.史隆

  • and Pierre Dupont of Dupont Chemicals led the group that met with Hoover.

    與杜邦化學公司的皮埃爾.杜邦共同來會晤胡佛

  • The President set down a very clear and unprecedented directive:

    總統立下了非常清楚且史無前例的指令

  • 1) Despite the weakening economy, keep wage rates at current levels.

    1)儘管衰弱的經濟情勢,還是要保持現在的工資

  • 2) Minimize layoffs. If you must reduce manpower,

    2)將裁員數減到最低。如果人力縮減是必要的話

  • do it through work sharing - that is, have two workers work half a day each or every other day.

    利用工作分擔-也就是,讓兩個員工各做半天班或輪班

  • In return for maintaining wage rates and sharing jobs, Hoover promised the CEO's that he would

    為了報答公司維持工資與分擔工作,胡佛對執行長做保證

  • convince workers to neither strike nor demand additional pay or benefits. He kept his promise.

    他將會說服勞工不罷工也不要求額外工資或分紅。胡佛做到了

  • Labor agreed not to strike. Industry agreed not to cut wages.

    勞工同意不罷工,老闆同意不減薪

  • In fact, Henry Ford raised wages as a gesture of solidarity.

    事實上,亨利.福特還利用加薪來作為團結的舉動

  • The engineer, it seemed, had engineered the perfect solution.

    看來,這個採礦工程師,做了完美開採

  • Only it didn't work.

    不料這方法不起作用

  • As 1929 moved into 1930 and 1931, prices for industrial goods declined. One reason was

    當1929年來到了1930年及1931年,工業產品價格下降,原因是

  • the economy-wide deflation brought on by the Federal Reserve's tight money policy.

    (美國)聯邦儲備系統的貨幣緊縮政策,導致整個經濟體通貨膨脹

  • People simply didn't have money to buy goods or invest in companies. But another reason --

    人們簡直是沒有錢可以購買日用品或是投資。但是還有另一個

  • and a big one -- was the result of something else Hoover did - his signing of the Smoot-Hawley

    更大的原因-胡佛造成的結果-他在1930年簽署了

  • Tariff Act of 1930. That act, which raised tariffs on imports to the highest levels in 100 years,

    斯穆特-霍利關稅法案。此法案造成了百年來各項進口關稅達到最高

  • led America's trading partners to retaliate by placing tariffs on American goods.

    導致美國貿易夥伴利用增加美國貨物的關稅來報復

  • With American exports cut in half, the prices of American industrial goods declined sharply.

    隨著美國貨物出口減半,美國工業產品價格嚴重下滑

  • As the Depression deepened, industry asked Hoover for permission to cut wages,

    大蕭條加深劇烈,工業要求胡佛同意降低工資

  • but Hoover refused. "If we cut wages, there will be hell to pay with unions," he said.

    但胡佛拒絕了,他說:「如果我們降低工資,工會將付出慘痛代價。」

  • By the end of 1931, with the economy in shambles, industry broke their deal by cutting wages

    到了1931年底,經濟腳步的蹣跚,讓工業決定打破承諾,降低工資

  • and increasing layoffs. But it was too late to stop the free fall. Business failure built

    以及增加裁員人數。但這一切是覆水難收。公司一間間債台高築

  • on business failure. Unemployment soared from 3.2% in 1929 to 23.6% in 1932.

    失業率在1929年至1932年,從3.2%攀升至23.6%

  • Hoover countered by vastly increasing government spending, offering a nine-point plan that included major

    胡佛利用巨大的政府支出做反擊,提出一個九點計劃,其中包含了

  • public works projects like the Hoover Dam and the Los Angeles Aqueduct. He raised taxes

    主要的公共工程胡佛水壩以及洛杉磯引水渠。胡佛將

  • on the top income bracket from 25% to 63%. He did everything he could think of to engineer

    高收入等級的稅收從25%提高至63%。他做了一切可開採的措施

  • the economy back to health except the one thing that might have worked --

    想讓經濟起死回生,除了一件本來可能有用的事-

  • let the free market heal itself.

    讓自由市場自行復原

  • What should have been a couple of hard years turned into a decade long disaster.

    本來苦日子只需過個幾年卻轉變成長達十年的苦難歲月

  • And what of the commonly-held view that Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt's economic policies

    是甚麼普遍持有的觀點覺得胡佛及富蘭克林.羅斯福的經濟政策

  • were so different? You can now see that view is also inaccurate. Both Hoover and FDR believed

    有所不同?你現在也可知道這觀點並不正確。胡佛及富蘭克林.羅斯福都相信

  • in forceful government intervention into the economy.

    經濟需要政府強而有力的干預

  • I'm Lee Ohanian, Professor of Economics at UCLA, for Prager University.

    我是里.和漢尼亞,加州大學洛杉磯分校的經濟學教授,這個影片是給Prager University(譯註:Prager University是一個免費的線上學習網站)

Mention the name Herbert Hoover, the 31st President of the United States, and you probably

說到赫伯特.胡佛,第31屆美國總統

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胡佛與大蕭條 (Hoover and the Great Depression)

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    James 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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