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  • I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy

    我想談一下策略

  • and its relationship with technology.

    以及它和科技的關聯

  • We tend to think of business strategy

    我們普遍認為商業策略

  • as being a rather abstract body

    只是經濟思維中的

  • of essentially economic thought,

    一個抽象的概念

  • perhaps rather timeless.

    可能是歷久彌新的

  • I'm going to argue that, in fact,

    我想要反駁這個論點

  • business strategy has always been premised

    實際上商業策略總是以

  • on assumptions about technology,

    科技的假設為前提

  • that those assumptions are changing,

    而那些假設時常變動

  • and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,

    事實上是相當劇烈地變動

  • and that therefore what that will drive us to

    而這些假設將我們導向一個

  • is a different concept of what we mean

    和原來的商業策略

  • by business strategy.

    不同的方向

  • Let me start, if I may,

    請容許我

  • with a little bit of history.

    以一小段歷史開始說明

  • The idea of strategy in business

    在商業上,策略這個概念

  • owes its origins to two intellectual giants:

    源自於兩位絕頂的巨擘

  • Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,

    波士頓諮詢公司的創辦人布魯斯.亨德森

  • and Michael Porter, professor at the Harvard Business School.

    以及哈佛商學院的教授麥可·波特

  • Henderson's central idea was what you might call

    亨德森的中心理論,

  • the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass

    你可以稱之為大規模專注對付弱勢,

  • against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.

    並壓制了敵人的拿破崙戰略

  • What Henderson recognized was that,

    亨德森所認為的是

  • in the business world,

    在商業領域

  • there are many phenomena which are characterized

    有許多被經濟學者

  • by what economists would call increasing returns --

    視為報酬遞增的現象,

  • scale, experience.

    如規模或經驗

  • The more you do of something,

    你付出越多

  • disproportionately the better you get.

    你就會得到越好的報酬

  • And therefore he found a logic for investing

    因此,他發現一個邏輯

  • in such kinds of overwhelming mass

    來投資這樣壓倒性的數量

  • in order to achieve competitive advantage.

    以達成競爭上的優勢

  • And that was the first introduction

    而那是第一次有人

  • of essentially a military concept of strategy

    將軍事上的戰略

  • into the business world.

    應用到商場

  • Porter agreed with that premise,

    波特同意這樣的假設

  • but he qualified it.

    並且將其合格化

  • He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,

    他提出,正確地說,該假設很好

  • but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.

    但是商業應用上還有更多的步驟

  • They have different components,

    他們有不同的組成要素

  • and each of those components might be driven

    而每一項要素

  • by a different kind of strategy.

    可能由不同的策略所引導

  • A company or a business might actually be advantaged

    一家公司可能在某些活動上佔優勢

  • in some activities but disadvantaged in others.

    但在其他活動卻是弱勢

  • He formed the concept of the value chain,

    他提出價值鏈這個概念

  • essentially the sequence of steps with which

    指出一連串的步驟

  • a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,

    我們可以舉例,從一個原材料變成零組件

  • becomes assembled into a finished product,

    裝配成最終產品

  • and then is distributed, for example,

    直到配送

  • and he argued that advantage accrued

    波特主張每個零組件

  • to each of those components,

    所產生的利益

  • and that the advantage of the whole

    和完整產品的利益

  • was in some sense the sum or the average

    可以是總和

  • of that of its parts.

    或是所有料件的平均

  • And this idea of the value chain was predicated

    而這個價值鏈的想法

  • on the recognition that

    被認為是承認了

  • what holds a business together is transaction costs,

    構成商業的是交易成本

  • that in essence you need to coordinate,

    在本質上,你必須去協調

  • organizations are more efficient at coordination

    通常來說,

  • than markets, very often,

    組織比市場更能有效地調整

  • and therefore the nature and role and boundaries

    因而這種合作的本質、角色和分界

  • of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.

    正是被交易成本所定義

  • It was on those two ideas,

    這兩種想法

  • Henderson's idea of increasing returns

    亨德森對報酬遞增

  • to scale and experience,

    的規模和經驗

  • and Porter's idea of the value chain,

    以及波特的價值鏈的想法

  • encompassing heterogenous elements,

    包含異質的要素

  • that the whole edifice of business strategy

    其後豎立起

  • was subsequently erected.

    整個商業策略的體系

  • Now what I'm going to argue is

    現在,我所主張的是

  • that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.

    事實上,這些假設前提,是不成立的

  • First of all, let's think about transaction costs.

    首先,讓我們思考一下交易成本

  • There are really two components to transaction costs.

    交易成本含有兩種要素

  • One is about processing information, and the other is about communication.

    其一是資訊處理,另一種是溝通

  • These are the economics of processing and communicating

    以及溝通的經濟圖形

  • as they have evolved over a long period of time.

    這是發展已久的資訊處理

  • As we all know from so many contexts,

    如同我們從許多文本所知

  • they have been radically transformed

    自從波特和亨德森首次將他們的理論

  • since the days when Porter and Henderson

    進行系統性的整理

  • first formulated their theories.

    資訊處理和溝通已被完全地轉變

  • In particular, since the mid-'90s,

    尤其是,在90年代中期

  • communications costs have actually been falling

    溝通成本已經大幅下降

  • even faster than transaction costs,

    降低的速度甚至快於交易成本

  • which is why communication, the Internet,

    那也就是為什麼網路溝通

  • has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.

    爆發而大盛其道

  • Now, those falling transaction costs

    現在,那些降低的交易成本

  • have profound consequences,

    有了意義深遠的影響

  • because if transaction costs are the glue

    假如交易成本是將價值鏈串聯的要件

  • that hold value chains together, and they are falling,

    當交易成本下降

  • there is less to economize on.

    可節省空間就越少

  • There is less need for vertically integrated organization,

    組織做垂直整合的必要性也越小

  • and value chains at least can break up.

    而價值鏈能夠打破

  • They needn't necessarily, but they can.

    不必要,但是是做得到的

  • In particular, it then becomes possible for

    尤其在商業上

  • a competitor in one business

    一個競爭者可能

  • to use their position in one step of the value chain

    利用他們在價值鏈上的位置

  • in order to penetrate or attack

    為了滲透或是攻擊競爭對手

  • or disintermediate the competitor in another.

    或略過其通路

  • That is not just an abstract proposition.

    這不只是一個理論上的主張

  • There are many very specific stories

    而是有許多確切的故事

  • of how that actually happened.

    真實地發生

  • A poster child example was the encyclopedia business.

    如一個典型代表,

  • The encyclopedia business

    百科全書原有的經銷知識

  • in the days of leatherbound books

    在過去裝訂書籍的年代

  • was basically a distribution business.

    那基本上是一種經銷業

  • Most of the cost was the commission to the salesmen.

    大部分的成本是銷售員的佣金

  • The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,

    CD-ROM和網路來臨之後

  • new technologies made the distribution of knowledge

    新的科技

  • many orders of magnitude cheaper,

    大幅地削弱

  • and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.

    百科全書產業因而瓦解

  • It's now, of course, a very familiar story.

    當然,這是一個熟知的故事

  • This, in fact, more generally was the story

    事實上,在網路經濟的第一個世代

  • of the first generation of the Internet economy.

    這樣的故事更加普遍

  • It was about falling transaction costs

    降低的交易成本

  • breaking up value chains

    打破了價值鏈

  • and therefore allowing disintermediation,

    因此造成「去中介化」

  • or what we call deconstruction.

    或是我們所稱通路的「解構」

  • One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,

    其中一個我偶爾會問的問題是

  • well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia

    當大英 (百科全書) 的商業模式不再有效

  • when Britannica no longer has a business model?

    什麼將取代百科全書?

  • And it was a while before the answer became manifest.

    這個答案花了點時間才變得明顯

  • Now, of course, we know what it is: it's the Wikipedia.

    現在,當然我們知道是 - 維基百科

  • Now what's special about the Wikipedia is not its distribution.

    維基百科特別的不是它的配銷

  • What's special about the Wikipedia is the way it's produced.

    而是它是如何產生的

  • The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia

    當然,維基百科是由

  • created by its users.

    它的使用者所建立的

  • And this, in fact, defines what you might call

    事實上,這定義了你可能稱之為

  • the second decade of the Internet economy,

    網路經濟的第二個十年

  • the decade in which the Internet as a noun

    在這個十年,「網路」從一個名詞

  • became the Internet as a verb.

    變成一個動詞

  • It became a set of conversations,

    它變成一組對話

  • the era in which user-generated content and social networks

    在這個時代,使用者生成內容和社群網路

  • became the dominant phenomenon.

    變成主流現象

  • Now what that really meant

    他們所真正代表的是

  • in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework

    就波特和亨德森的架構來說

  • was the collapse of certain kinds of economies of scale.

    代表著某種規模經濟的瓦解

  • It turned out that tens of thousands

    它轉變成數以千計自主的個人

  • of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia

    來撰寫百科全書

  • could do just as good a job,

    就能將這份工作做好

  • and certainly a much cheaper job,

    而且比在一個階級組織結構內的專家們

  • than professionals in a hierarchical organization.

    更便宜的方式

  • So basically what was happening was that one layer

    所以基本上所發生的是

  • of this value chain was becoming fragmented,

    價值鏈的一層變得破碎

  • as individuals could take over

    也就是個人能夠取代

  • where organizations were no longer needed.

    組織

  • But there's another question that obviously this graph poses,

    但從這張圖上可以明顯地看出這裡有一個問題

  • which is, okay, we've gone through two decades --

    我們已經渡過兩個十年

  • does anything distinguish the third?

    但有任何方式可以區別第三個十年嗎?

  • And what I'm going to argue is that indeed

    而我將主張的是

  • something does distinguish the third,

    確實,某些事情區別了它

  • and it maps exactly on to the kind of

    而且和我們所談論的

  • Porter-Henderson logic that we've been talking about.

    波特和亨德森的邏輯不謀而合

  • And that is, about data.

    而那就是,資料

  • If we go back to around 2000,

    如果我們回到2000年

  • a lot of people were talking about the information revolution,

    很多人當時正在談論資訊革命

  • and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data

    而確實整個世界的資料量正在成長

  • was growing, indeed growing quite fast.

    而且是相當快速地成長

  • but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.

    但在當時仍然是類比資料為主

  • We go forward to 2007,

    當我們走到2007年

  • not only had the world's stock of data exploded,

    不只是世界的資料量大增

  • but there'd been this massive substitution

    而且類比資料大規模地

  • of digital for analog.

    被數位資料所取代

  • And more important even than that,

    更重要的是

  • if you look more carefully at this graph,

    如果你更仔細地看這張圖

  • what you will observe is that about a half

    你會發現

  • of that digital data

    將近一半的數位資料

  • is information that has an I.P. address.

    屬於可對應到I.P.位址的資訊

  • It's on a server or it's on a P.C.

    儲存在伺服器或是個人電腦上

  • But having an I.P. address means that it

    然而,可對應到I.P.位址代表

  • can be connected to any other data

    這個資料也能夠被連結到

  • that has an I.P. address.

    另一個擁有I.P.位址的資料

  • It means it becomes possible

    這代表著

  • to put together half of the world's knowledge

    未來將可能結合世界一半的知識

  • in order to see patterns,

    以歸納出模式

  • an entirely new thing.

    以及新的事物

  • If we run the numbers forward to today,

    如果我們把時間軸移動到今天

  • it probably looks something like this.

    那麼圖形看起來會像這樣

  • We're not really sure.

    但我們並不完全確定

  • If we run the numbers forward to 2020,

    如果我們把時間軸移動到2020年

  • we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.

    承蒙IDC的資料,我們會得到一個確切的數字

  • It's curious that the future is so much more predictable than the present.

    很不可思議地,未來的情況比現在更容易預測

  • And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication

    而這張圖意味著

  • in the stock of information that is connected

    透過I.P.位址的串連

  • via an I.P. address.

    資訊的數量將以百倍增加

  • Now, if the number of connections that we can make

    現在,如果這些連結的數量

  • is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,

    和單一資料點成正比

  • a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data

    那麼增加百倍的資料量

  • is a ten-thousandfold multiplication

    代表我們在該資料可以看到

  • in the number of patterns

    模式將以

  • that we can see in that data,

    萬倍的方式增加

  • this just in the last 10 or 11 years.

    而這僅發生在過去10或11年間

  • This, I would submit, is a sea change,

    我認為這是一個巨變

  • a profound change in the economics

    一項經濟上全然的改變

  • of the world that we live in.

    在我們生活的世界中

  • The first human genome,

    人類第一對基因組

  • that of James Watson,

    詹姆斯·沃森

  • was mapped as the culmination of the Human Genome Project in the year 2000,

    在2000年人類基因組計劃全盛期被成功配對

  • and it took about 200 million dollars

    而這花費了2億美元

  • and about 10 years of work to map

    以及將近10年的時間

  • just one person's genomic makeup.

    而這只是一個人的基因組

  • Since then, the costs of mapping the genome have come down.

    自此之後,配對基因組的成本已經下跌

  • In fact, they've come down in recent years

    事實上,近幾年的成本

  • very dramatically indeed,

    劇烈地下跌

  • to the point where the cost is now below 1,000 dollars,

    成本至今已經低於1000美元

  • and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015

    而且預估確信在2015年之前

  • it will be below 100 dollars --

    將會低於100美元

  • a five or six order of magnitude drop

    一個五或六數量級的下跌

  • in the cost of genomic mapping

    在基因組配對的成本上

  • in just a 15-year period,

    只花了15年的時間

  • an extraordinary phenomenon.

    這是個相當驚人的現象

  • Now, in the days when mapping a genome

    在過去配對一組基因組需花費百萬

  • cost millions, or even tens of thousands,

    或甚至是上億元

  • it was basically a research enterprise.

    它基本上是一種研究機構

  • Scientists would gather some representative people,

    科學家集結一些代表性人物

  • and they would see patterns, and they would try

    他們發現模式

  • and make generalizations about human nature and disease

    嘗試歸結人類身體本質和疾病

  • from the abstract patterns they find

    從抽象的模式中,

  • from these particular selected individuals.

    或從篩選出來的個體中

  • But when the genome can be mapped for 100 bucks,

    但是當基因組能靠100美元

  • 99 dollars while you wait,

    或是99美元就能進行配對

  • then what happens is, it becomes retail.

    那麼將發生的是,它變成零售業

  • It becomes above all clinical.

    它是超乎臨床經驗的

  • You go the doctor with a cold,

    當你因為感冒而去看醫生

  • and if he or she hasn't done it already,

    在他還沒做任何診斷之前

  • the first thing they do is map your genome,

    第一件事就是配對你的基因組

  • at which point what they're now doing

    相較於現在的醫生所做

  • is not starting from some abstract knowledge of genomic medicine

    新的療程並非從抽象的基因醫學知識

  • and trying to work out how it applies to you,

    在你身上嘗試是否有效

  • but they're starting from your particular genome.

    而是從你自身特殊的基因組開始診斷

  • Now think of the power of that.

    現在讓我們想想這個力量

  • Think of where that takes us

    想想它將帶我們往哪個方向

  • when we can combine genomic data

    當我們可以結合基因組資料、

  • with clinical data

    臨床資料、

  • with data about drug interactions

    藥物反應的相關資料

  • with the kind of ambient data that devices

    以及透過手機或醫療晶片

  • like our phone and medical sensors

    等設備取得的資料

  • will increasingly be collecting.

    將被大量地蒐集

  • Think what happens when we collect all of that data

    想想看如果我們蒐集了這些資料

  • and we can put it together

    將他們結合在一起

  • in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.

    來找到我們過去從未見過的模式

  • This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,

    或許還需要一些時間,但這就是我所認為的