字幕列表 影片播放
-
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
十年前,我寫了一本書。
-
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
書名為《 我們的末世紀?》以問號結尾。
-
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
我的出版商去掉了問號。(笑聲)
-
The American publishers changed our title
美國出版商把我們的書名
-
to "Our Final Hour."
改成了《我們的末日》。
-
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
美國人喜歡即刻的滿足與逆反。
-
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
-
And my theme was this:
我的主題是這樣的,
-
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
我們的地球已經存在了四千五百多萬個世紀。
-
but this one is special —
但這個世紀是特殊的,
-
it's the first where one species, ours,
第一次有一個物種,也就是我們,
-
has the planet's future in its hands.
掌握了這個星球的命運。
-
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
地球過去的歷史中,
-
threats have come from nature —
威脅主要來源於自然——
-
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
疾病、地震、小行星等等——
-
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
但是從今往後,最大的威脅來源於我們自己。
-
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
現今不止是核威脅,
-
in our interconnected world,
在這個相互連接的世界裡,
-
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
網路故障可以波及全球,
-
air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days;
航空旅行可以在幾天內將流行病傳遍世界。
-
and social media can spread panic and rumor
社會媒體簡直能以光速
-
literally at the speed of light.
散播恐慌和謠言。
-
We fret too much about minor hazards —
我們太過苦惱於那些次要的危害,
-
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
像是發生概率極小的空難、食品中的致癌物、
-
low radiation doses, and so forth —
低輻射等等。
-
but we and our political masters
但我們和政治領袖們
-
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
卻否認那些災難性的情節。
-
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
幸運的是最可怕的事情還沒有發生,
-
Indeed, they probably won't.
的確,他們可能不會發生。
-
But if an event is potentially devastating,
但是如果有一件事具潛在的毀滅性,
-
it's worth paying a substantial premium
那就值得我們付出大量的精力與金錢。
-
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
把它掐死在搖籃裡,即使它不太可能發生。
-
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
這就像給我們的房子買火災險。
-
And as science offers greater power and promise,
科學提供了更強大的力量和保證,
-
the downside gets scarier too.
隨之而來的負面影響也變得更加可怕,
-
We get ever more vulnerable.
我們變得更加脆弱。
-
Within a few decades,
數十年之內,
-
millions will have the capability
數百萬人將會有能力
-
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
濫用飛速發展的生物技術,
-
just as they misuse cybertech today.
就像他們今天濫用網路技術一樣。
-
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
費裡曼•戴森在TED演講中
-
foresaw that children will design and create new organisms
預言孩子們會設計並創造新的有機體,
-
just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets.
就像他們那一代人擺弄化學裝置一樣平常。
-
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
好吧,這大概已經到科幻小說的邊緣了,
-
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
但是即使他情節中一小部份發生了,
-
our ecology and even our species
我們的生態系統乃至整個人類種族
-
would surely not survive long unscathed.
必定不會安然無恙地存活太久。
-
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
比如說,有一些生態極端主義者
-
who think that it would be better for the planet,
認為如果能大大減少人口,
-
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
那會對這整個星球和大地母親更好。
-
What happens when such people have mastered
當這樣的人掌握了
-
synthetic biology techniques
那些將在2050年普及的合成生物技術,
-
that will be widespread by 2050?
會發生什麽?
-
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
到那時,其他科幻小說中的噩夢
-
may transition to reality:
也可能變為現實。
-
dumb robots going rogue,
成了流氓的愚蠢機器人
-
or a network that develops a mind of its own
或者一套發展出自我意識的網路系統
-
threatens us all.
威脅我們所有人。
-
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
那麼,我們能不能通過條例來防範這樣的風險?
-
We must surely try, but these enterprises
無疑我們必將嘗試,
-
are so competitive, so globalized,
但那些企業是如此求勝心切,
-
and so driven by commercial pressure,
如此全球化,如此被商業壓力所驅使,
-
that anything that can be done will be done somewhere,
以至於他們會不擇手段,
-
whatever the regulations say.
不管法規條例說了些什麽。
-
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
這就像製毒法律——我們試圖管制,但做不到。
-
And the global village will have its village idiots,
地球村裡將會有些愚蠢的村民,
-
and they'll have a global range.
影響到整個地球。
-
So as I said in my book,
所以就像我在書中所說,
-
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
我們會在顛簸中走完這個世紀。
-
There may be setbacks to our society —
我們的社會可能會遭遇挫折——
-
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
事實上,有 50% 的機率是極其嚴重的挫折。
-
But are there conceivable events
但是,能否想像
-
that could be even worse,
更糟糕的事件,
-
events that could snuff out all life?
那些可以毀滅所有生命的事件?
-
When a new particle accelerator came online,
當一台新的粒子加速器開始運行時,
-
some people anxiously asked,
有人焦急地問
-
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
它會毀滅地球嗎?
-
rip apart the fabric of space?
或者更糟,撕破時空的結構?
-
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
幸運的是對此我們可以放心,
-
I and others pointed out that nature
我和其他一些人指出
-
has done the same experiments
大自然已經將同樣的實驗
-
zillions of times already,
通過宇宙射線的撞擊
-
via cosmic ray collisions.
做了無數次。
-
But scientists should surely be precautionary
但是對於那些在自然界中
-
about experiments that generate conditions
沒有先例的實驗,
-
without precedent in the natural world.
科學家們應該警鐘長鳴,
-
Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating
生物學家應該預防
-
genetically modified pathogens.
具有潛在毀滅性的轉基因病原體。
-
And by the way, our special aversion
順便說一句,我們對於
-
to the risk of truly existential disasters
毀滅性災難的風險尤其反感,
-
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
這是基於一個哲學倫理問題。
-
and it's this:
這個問題是這樣的。
-
Consider two scenarios.
想像如下兩個場景:
-
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
情景 A:90%的人類會消亡;
-
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
情景 B:100%的人類會消亡。
-
How much worse is B than A?
情景 B 比情景 A 糟糕多少呢?
-
Some would say 10 percent worse.
有人會說糟糕 10%,
-
The body count is 10 percent higher.
因為死亡人數多 10%。
-
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
但我堅持情景 B 是無比糟糕的。
-
As an astronomer, I can't believe
做為天文學家,我無法相信
-
that humans are the end of the story.
人類是整個故事的結尾。
-
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
在太陽開始燃燒的五十億年前,宇宙就誕生了,
-
and the universe may go on forever,
而且可能會永遠持續下去。
-
so post-human evolution,
因此,在地球和及其遙遠的地方,
-
here on Earth and far beyond,
後人類的進化會被延長,
-
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
就像產生了我們人類的式的達爾文式進化過程,
-
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
甚至更加絕妙。
-
And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster,
事實上,未來的進化會發生得更快,
-
on a technological timescale,
會在一個技術時間尺度上,
-
not a natural selection timescale.
而不是一個自然選擇的時間尺度上。
-
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
所以,考慮到這些重大的利害關係,
-
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
我們不應該接受哪怕十億分之一的風險,
-
that human extinction would foreclose
因人類滅絕而中止了
-
this immense potential.
這巨大潛力的風險。
-
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
有些設想中的情景
-
may indeed be science fiction,
的確可能只會在科幻小說裡出現,
-
but others may be disquietingly real.
但其他的一些可能會是令人不安的現實。
-
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
一句重要的格言這麼說:
-
is not the same as the improbable,
不熟悉不等於不可能。
-
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
事實上,這就是為什麽我們正在劍橋大學
-
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
創建一個中心來研究
-
these existential risks.
如何緩解這些生存風險。
-
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
看來讓一小部分人
-
to think about these potential disasters.
思考這些潛在災難是值得的。
-
And we need all the help we can get from others,
我們需要可以從其他人那裡得到的所有幫助。
-
because we are stewards of a precious
因為我們是來自茫茫宇宙中
-
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
那顆珍貴暗藍色圓石上的守護者,
-
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
一顆已經走過五千多萬個世紀的星球,
-
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
所以請我們不要危及它的未來。
-
And I'd like to finish with a quote
我想用一段偉大科學家彼得•梅達沃的話
-
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
結束今天的演講,這段話是這樣的:
-
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
「為人類敲響的鐘
-
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
就像阿爾卑斯山上牛的鈴鐺,
-
They are attached to our own necks,
繫在我們自己的脖子上。
-
and it must be our fault if they do not make
如果它們沒有發出和諧悠揚的樂聲,
-
a tuneful and melodious sound."
那一定是我們自己的錯。」
-
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
-
(Applause)
(掌聲)