I was in Cambridge at the MIT Media Lab

我人在美國麻省劍橋的MIT媒體實驗室，

meeting with faculty, students and staff,

見了許多教授、學生與員工，

and we were trying to figure out whether

我們想要知道

I should be the next director.

我是否是下一任主任的適合人選。

That night, at midnight,

那天的半夜，

a magnitude 9 earthquake

強度高達九級的地震

hit off of the Pacific coast of Japan.

重創了鄰近日本的太平洋沿岸，

My wife and family were in Japan,

我的妻子和家人當時都在日本。

and as the news started to come in,

當新聞開始湧入，

I was panicking.

我感到非常恐慌。

I was looking at the news streams

我一邊看著新聞快報，

and listening to the press conferences

一邊聽著政府

of the government officials

與東京電力公司

and the Tokyo Power Company,

官方的記者會轉播。

and hearing about this explosion

我知道某一個核電廠反應爐爆炸了，

at the nuclear reactors

而這些外洩的輻射雲

and this cloud of fallout

正朝著我們

that was headed towards our house

僅兩百公里以外的家襲來，

which was only about 200 kilometers away.

轉播單位全然沒有提供

And the people on TV weren't telling us

我們所希望得知的資訊。

anything that we wanted to hear.

我想知道反應爐的狀況，

I wanted to know what was going on with the reactor,

以及輻射外洩的程度。

what was going on with the radiation,

我的家人是否身處危險之中?

whether my family was in danger.

所以我循著自己的直覺，

So I did what instinctively felt like the right thing,

那是當時我認為我該做的:

which was to go onto the Internet

上網搜尋。

and try to figure out

我想知道是否有辦法靠自己找到解答。

if I could take matters into my own hands.

在網路上，我發現有許多人也和我一樣，

On the Net, I found there were a lot of other people

想知道現在的情況，

like me trying to figure out what was going on,

我們這群人就這樣形成了一個團隊，

and together we sort of loosely formed a group

我們自稱為「安全人員」(Safecast)

and we called it Safecast,

我們決定要嘗試去

and we decided we were going to try

測量輻射量

to measure the radiation

並把所得到的資料提供給社會大眾。

and get the data out to everybody else,

因為很明顯的政府

because it was clear that the government

並沒有想提供資訊給我們的意思。

wasn't going to be doing this for us.

三年之後，

Three years later,

我們有一千六百萬筆的資料，

we have 16 million data points,

我們設計了自己的 蓋革計數器 (測量輻射的儀器)，

we have designed our own Geiger counters

你自行下載那些設計，

that you can download the designs

然後連上系統。

and plug it into the network.

我們有自行開發的APP顯示

We have an app that shows you

日本大部分地區 與世界其他地方的輻射指數。

most of the radiation in Japan and other parts of the world.

我們可以說是最全球成功的

We are arguably one of the most successful

由公民參與的自然科學計畫之一，

citizen science projects in the world,

我們也創造了

and we have created

最大的輻射測量的公開資料庫。

the largest open dataset of radiation measurements.

有趣的是，

And the interesting thing here

(鼓掌) 謝謝，

is how did — (Applause) — Thank you.

是我們一群外行人，

How did a bunch of amateurs

完全不懂自己在幹嘛，

who really didn't know what we were doing

但能團結在一起，

somehow come together

做到那些非政府組織和政府單位，

and do what NGOs and the government

完全做不到的事情。

were completely incapable of doing?

我認為這必須歸功於

And I would suggest that this has something to do

網路的力量。這不是僥倖，

with the Internet. It's not a fluke.

也不是幸運，也不是因為個人，

It wasn't luck, and it wasn't because it was us.

因為一個災難事件，

It helped that it was an event

讓我們連繫在一起沒錯，

that pulled everybody together,

但不一樣的是因為有網路，

but it was a new way of doing things

讓我們有新的方法可以完成事情。

that was enabled by the Internet

還有許多事情也正在發生，

and a lot of the other things that were going on,

我想談一下

and I want to talk a little bit about

這些新的準則。

what those new principles are.

還記得網路發明之前的生活嗎? (笑聲)

So remember before the Internet? (Laughter)

我就稱之 B. I. (網路元年前)

I call this B.I. Okay?

所以在 B.I. 時，生活很簡單，

So, in B.I., life was simple.

事物在歐式空間，遵循著牛頓定律，

Things were Euclidian, Newtonian,

非常好預測。

somewhat predictable.

人們甚至嘗試預測未來，

People actually tried to predict the future,

甚至經濟學家也是。

even the economists.

但突然有了網路，

And then the Internet happened,

世界突然變得非常複雜、

and the world became extremely complex,

非常低廉、非常快速。

extremely low-cost, extremely fast,

而那些我們奉為圭臬的

and those Newtonian laws

牛頓定律，

that we so dearly cherished

只能解釋日常的規則，

turned out to be just local ordinances,

但在這個不可預測的世界中

and what we found was that in this

我們發現，

completely unpredictable world

大部分的人都在

that most of the people who were surviving

用截然不同的定律準則在生活。

were working with sort of a different set of principles,

這就是我想討論的。

and I want to talk a little bit about that.

在網路紀元之前，如果你記得的話，

Before the Internet, if you remember,

當我們想要提供服務，

when we tried to create services,

你必須提供硬體、

what you would do is you'd create

系統，和軟體層，

the hardware layer and the network layer and the software

可能得花上好幾百萬。

and it would cost millions of dollars

才能做的基本服務。

to do anything that was substantial.

所以當要做任何事 都必須好幾百萬美元，

So when it costs millions of dollars to do something substantial,

你會去讀個工商管理碩士、

what you would do is you'd get an MBA

寫個計畫書、

who would write a plan

從創投公司

and get the money

或大公司找資金，

from V.C.s or big companies,

然後雇用設計師和工程師，

and then you'd hire the designers and the engineers,

來製造產品。

and they'd build the thing.

這是網路紀元之前，B.I 的創業模型。

This is the Before Internet, B.I., innovation model.

但有了網路之後，

What happened after the Internet was

創新的代價變低許多，

the cost of innovation went down so much

因為合作與分配的成本、

because the cost of collaboration, the cost of distribution,

通訊的成本，以及摩爾定律，

the cost of communication, and Moore's Law

讓嘗試新事物的代價

made it so that the cost of trying a new thing

變得幾乎是零了。

became nearly zero,

所以才會有谷歌、臉書、雅虎等公司，

and so you would have Google, Facebook, Yahoo,

由那些根本沒按照規矩來的學生創立，

students that didn't have permission —

沒人同意他們可以創新——

permissionless innovation —

不用任何人首肯，不需要別人講解，

didn't have permission, didn't have PowerPoints,

他們只是一股腦的做出東西來，

they just built the thing,

賺到一些錢，

then they raised the money,

然後從中摸索出商業經營的方法，

and then they sort of figured out a business plan

或許之後再雇用一些工商管理碩士。

and maybe later on they hired some MBAs.

所以網路的產生

So the Internet caused innovation,

讓在軟體服務的創新，

at least in software and services,

從以往由MBA主導的創業模式，

to go from an MBA-driven innovation model

變成由設計師與工程師主導。

to a designer-engineer-driven innovation model,

並把創新帶到了一個新的境界。

and it pushed innovation to the edges,

從學校宿舍到新創公司，

to the dorm rooms, to the startups,

不需要大企業的介入。

away from the large institutions,

那些無聊老舊的大企業，曾經擁有金錢，

the stodgy old institutions that had the power

能力和權力，現在不然。

and the money and the authority.

我都知道這些網路公司的故事。

And we all know this. We all know this happened on the Internet.

但同樣的事情，這也發生在其他地方。

It turns out it's happening in other things, too.

讓我舉個例子，

Let me give you some examples.

在媒體實驗室，我們不只有做硬體，

So at the Media Lab, we don't just do hardware.

我們從事各方面的研發。

We do all kinds of things.

我們做生物、硬體，

We do biology, we do hardware,

尼葛洛龐帝教授的名言所說 「不展示成果就死」，

and Nicholas Negroponte famously said, "Demo or die,"

這是相對於傳統學術領域 的格言「不出版就死」。

as opposed to "Publish or perish,"

他也常說，展示的成果 只需要成功一次即可。

which was the traditional academic way of thinking.

因為我們做出的初始模型 可以激發那些大公司

And he often said, the demo only has to work once,

進而影響這個世界，創造出

because the primary mode of us impacting the world

像Kindle電子閱讀器和

was through large companies

樂高Mindstorms機器人等產品。

being inspired by us

但今日，我們有能力

and creating products like the Kindle or Lego Mindstorms.

以非常低廉的成本創造出產品。

But today, with the ability

我想要改寫這個格言，

to deploy things into the real world at such low cost,

而且這是正式的官方聲明，

I'm changing the motto now,

我要說：「不創造產品就死」。

and this is the official public statement.

你必須把東西做出來讓這世界看到，

I'm officially saying, "Deploy or die."

那才算數。

You have to get the stuff into the real world

有時會是由大公司做出，

for it to really count,

然後另一位講者尼葛洛龐帝教授 就能講講衛星的事。

and sometimes it will be large companies,

(掌聲)

and Nicholas can talk about satellites.

謝謝

(Applause)

但我們是可以靠自己達成的，

Thank you.

不需要靠大企業的幫助。

But we should be getting out there ourselves

去年，我們送了一群學生去深圳

and not depending on large institutions to do it for us.

他們與當地的創業家 一起坐在工廠的地板

So last year, we sent a bunch of students to Shenzhen,

真是很棒的經驗。

and they sat on the factory floors

在那裏，

with the innovators in Shenzhen, and it was amazing.

有生產製造的儀器，

What was happening there

他們不是在做 初始模型或投影片簡報，

was you would have these manufacturing devices,

他們在微調那些製造的器材，

and they weren't making prototypes or PowerPoints.

直接在製造的器材上實現創新。

They were fiddling with the manufacturing equipment

工廠由那些設計師操控，

and innovating right on the manufacturing equipment.

設計師就在工廠之中。

The factory was in the designer,

所以你可以

and the designer was literally in the factory.

走到小賣場，

And so what you would do is,

馬上看到完成的手機。

you'd go down to the stalls

所以不像在矽谷Palo Alto的孩子，

and you would see these cell phones.

忙著架設新的網站。

So instead of starting little websites

在深圳地孩子在製作新的手機，

like the kids in Palo Alto do,

他們研發新手機就像矽谷的孩子

the kids in Shenzhen make new cell phones.

造新網站一樣。

They make new cell phones like kids in Palo Alto

所以在那手機的創新之蓬勃，

make websites,

有如熱帶雨林。

and so there's a rainforest

他們就是製造手機，

of innovation going on in the cell phone.

到小賣場賣一些手機。

What they do is, they make a cell phone,

再看看別人的產品，調整，

go down to the stall, they sell some,

再做一千多個，拿去賣。

they look at the other kids' stuff, go up,

這跟軟體業不是很像嗎?

make a couple thousand more, go down.

這很像是一個很敏捷的軟體開發模式，

Doesn't this sound like a software thing?

測試，重新來過，

It sounds like agile software development,

當你以為這只能適用於軟體，

A/B testing and iteration,

深圳的孩子已經將他應用在硬體了。

and what we thought you could only do with software

我實驗室下一個研究人員，我希望

kids in Shenzhen are doing this in hardware.

就是來自那些深圳的研發人員之一。

My next fellow, I hope, is going to be

從剛剛的例子，

one of these innovators from Shenzhen.

我們看到把研發推到一個新的境界。

And so what you see is

我們討論3D列印等新技術，

that is pushing innovation to the edges.

那很棒，但這是Limor

We talk about 3D printers and stuff like that,

她是我們最好的研究生之一，

and that's great, but this is Limor.

她正站在一個三星泰科

She is one of our favorite graduates,

自動電路板設計機

and she is standing in front of a Samsung

這玩意能在一小時內把2萬3千的零組件

Techwin Pick and Place Machine.

焊接到電路板上。

This thing can put 23,000 components per hour

這是盒裝的工廠，

onto an electronics board.

以往需要滿工廠的工人

This is a factory in a box.

用手工組裝完成的工作，

So what used to take a factory full of workers

她只需要這個位於紐約的小盒子，

working by hand

就可輕易完成。

in this little box in New York,

她不需要去到深圳，

she's able to have effectively —

就可以生產產品。

She doesn't actually have to go to Shenzhen

她只要買下這個盒子就可以生產，

to do this manufacturing.

所以生產、創新的成本、

She can buy this box and she can manufacture it.

製造初始模型的成本、分配、製造、硬體，

So manufacturing, the cost of innovation,

都變得非常低廉。

the cost of prototyping, distribution, manufacturing, hardware,

創新已經被推往這個新的境界，

is getting so low

學生與新創公司就可以自行製造。

that innovation is being pushed to the edges

這東西還很新，但一定會變成主流，

and students and startups are being able to build it.

也會產生許多改變，

This is a recent thing, but this will happen

就像網路改變了軟體業。

and this will change

Sorona是杜邦發展出的一個程序，

just like it did with software.

使用基因工程改造的微生物，

Sorona is a DuPont process

將玉米轉製成聚酯纖維，

that uses a genetically engineered microbe

這製程的效率比 化石燃料方法增進了30%，

to turn corn sugar into polyester.

且對環境更為友善。

It's 30 percent more efficient than the fossil fuel method,

基因工程和生物工程，

and it's much better for the environment.

創造出了許多

Genetic engineering and bioengineering

很好的嶄新機會。

are creating a whole bunch

在化學、計算、記憶體上都有應用。

of great new opportunities

應用層面很廣，很明顯地在醫學方面也是，

for chemistry, for computation, for memory.

但或許我們也可以應用在生產

We will probably be doing a lot, obviously doing health things,

與製造方面。

but we will probably be growing chairs

可是問題是，Sorona的研發 投入了四億美金，

and buildings soon.

耗費了七年才完成。

The problem is, Sorona costs about 400 million dollars

這似乎讓你想起古早的 大型主機那個年代，

and took seven years to build.

但事實上，在生物工程領域，

It kind of reminds you of the old mainframe days.

創新的成品也在降低中。

The thing is, the cost of innovation

這是一個桌上型的基因測序儀，

in bioengineering is also going down.

曾經，要定序基因需要 花上好幾百萬的資金。

This is desktop gene sequencer.

現在你只需要一個桌機，

It used to cost millions and millions of dollars to sequence genes.

孩子們在學校宿舍就可以做。

Now you can do it on a desktop like this,

這是一個名叫"Gen9"的基因組合器，

and kids can do this in dorm rooms.

現在當你試圖合成一個基因時，

This is Gen9 gene assembler,

某個在工廠的人，

and so right now when you try to print a gene,

會以手動的方式使用吸量管將材料混合，

what you do is somebody in a factory

在一百個鹼基對中就會出現一個錯誤，

with pipettes puts the thing together by hand,

而且需要投注很長的時間以及可觀的金錢。

you have one error per 100 base pairs,

這個嶄新的儀器，

and it takes a long time and costs a lot of money.

在一個晶片上組裝基因，

This new device

不會在一百個鹼基對中就出現一個錯誤，

assembles genes on a chip,

而是在一萬個鹼基對中才會有一個錯誤。

and instead of one error per 100 base pairs,

在這個實驗室裡，我們將具有全世界

it's one error per 10,000 base pairs.

一年的基因合成容量，

In this lab, we will have the world's capacity

一年兩億鹼基對。

of gene printing within a year,

這有點類似我們從手工製的

200 million base pairs a year.

電晶體收音機，

This is kind of like when we went

到英特爾的奔騰處理器。

from transistor radios wrapped by hand

這將會成為生物工程界的奔騰處理器。

to the Pentium.

將生物工程帶到

This is going to become the Pentium of bioengineering,

學校宿舍與新創公司伸手可及之處。

pushing bioengineering into the hands

所以這個現象我們在軟體、硬體，