Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • On March 10, 2011,

    在2011年的三月十日,

  • I was in Cambridge at the MIT Media Lab

    我人在美國麻省劍橋的MIT媒體實驗室,

  • meeting with faculty, students and staff,

    見了許多教授、學生與員工,

  • and we were trying to figure out whether

    我們想要知道

  • I should be the next director.

    我是否是下一任主任的適合人選。

  • That night, at midnight,

    那天的半夜,

  • a magnitude 9 earthquake

    強度高達九級的地震

  • hit off of the Pacific coast of Japan.

    重創了鄰近日本的太平洋沿岸,

  • My wife and family were in Japan,

    我的妻子和家人當時都在日本。

  • and as the news started to come in,

    當新聞開始湧入,

  • I was panicking.

    我感到非常恐慌。

  • I was looking at the news streams

    我一邊看著新聞快報,

  • and listening to the press conferences

    一邊聽著政府

  • of the government officials

    與東京電力公司

  • and the Tokyo Power Company,

    官方的記者會轉播。

  • and hearing about this explosion

    我知道某一個核電廠反應爐爆炸了,

  • at the nuclear reactors

    而這些外洩的輻射雲

  • and this cloud of fallout

    正朝著我們

  • that was headed towards our house

    僅兩百公里以外的家襲來,

  • which was only about 200 kilometers away.

    轉播單位全然沒有提供

  • And the people on TV weren't telling us

    我們所希望得知的資訊。

  • anything that we wanted to hear.

    我想知道反應爐的狀況,

  • I wanted to know what was going on with the reactor,

    以及輻射外洩的程度。

  • what was going on with the radiation,

    我的家人是否身處危險之中?

  • whether my family was in danger.

    所以我循著自己的直覺,

  • So I did what instinctively felt like the right thing,

    那是當時我認為我該做的:

  • which was to go onto the Internet

    上網搜尋。

  • and try to figure out

    我想知道是否有辦法靠自己找到解答。

  • if I could take matters into my own hands.

    在網路上,我發現有許多人也和我一樣,

  • On the Net, I found there were a lot of other people

    想知道現在的情況,

  • like me trying to figure out what was going on,

    我們這群人就這樣形成了一個團隊,

  • and together we sort of loosely formed a group

    我們自稱為「安全人員」(Safecast)

  • and we called it Safecast,

    我們決定要嘗試去

  • and we decided we were going to try

    測量輻射量

  • to measure the radiation

    並把所得到的資料提供給社會大眾。

  • and get the data out to everybody else,

    因為很明顯的政府

  • because it was clear that the government

    並沒有想提供資訊給我們的意思。

  • wasn't going to be doing this for us.

    三年之後,

  • Three years later,

    我們有一千六百萬筆的資料,

  • we have 16 million data points,

    我們設計了自己的 蓋革計數器 (測量輻射的儀器),

  • we have designed our own Geiger counters

    你自行下載那些設計,

  • that you can download the designs

    然後連上系統。

  • and plug it into the network.

    我們有自行開發的APP顯示

  • We have an app that shows you

    日本大部分地區 與世界其他地方的輻射指數。

  • most of the radiation in Japan and other parts of the world.

    我們可以說是最全球成功的

  • We are arguably one of the most successful

    由公民參與的自然科學計畫之一,

  • citizen science projects in the world,

    我們也創造了

  • and we have created

    最大的輻射測量的公開資料庫。

  • the largest open dataset of radiation measurements.

    有趣的是,

  • And the interesting thing here

    (鼓掌) 謝謝,

  • is how did — (Applause) — Thank you.

    是我們一群外行人,

  • How did a bunch of amateurs

    完全不懂自己在幹嘛,

  • who really didn't know what we were doing

    但能團結在一起,

  • somehow come together

    做到那些非政府組織和政府單位,

  • and do what NGOs and the government

    完全做不到的事情。

  • were completely incapable of doing?

    我認為這必須歸功於

  • And I would suggest that this has something to do

    網路的力量。這不是僥倖,

  • with the Internet. It's not a fluke.

    也不是幸運,也不是因為個人,

  • It wasn't luck, and it wasn't because it was us.

    因為一個災難事件,

  • It helped that it was an event

    讓我們連繫在一起沒錯,

  • that pulled everybody together,

    但不一樣的是因為有網路,

  • but it was a new way of doing things

    讓我們有新的方法可以完成事情。

  • that was enabled by the Internet

    還有許多事情也正在發生,

  • and a lot of the other things that were going on,

    我想談一下

  • and I want to talk a little bit about

    這些新的準則。

  • what those new principles are.

    還記得網路發明之前的生活嗎? (笑聲)

  • So remember before the Internet? (Laughter)

    我就稱之 B. I. (網路元年前)

  • I call this B.I. Okay?

    所以在 B.I. 時,生活很簡單,

  • So, in B.I., life was simple.

    事物在歐式空間,遵循著牛頓定律,

  • Things were Euclidian, Newtonian,

    非常好預測。

  • somewhat predictable.

    人們甚至嘗試預測未來,

  • People actually tried to predict the future,

    甚至經濟學家也是。

  • even the economists.

    但突然有了網路,

  • And then the Internet happened,

    世界突然變得非常複雜、

  • and the world became extremely complex,

    非常低廉、非常快速。

  • extremely low-cost, extremely fast,

    而那些我們奉為圭臬的

  • and those Newtonian laws

    牛頓定律,

  • that we so dearly cherished

    只能解釋日常的規則,

  • turned out to be just local ordinances,

    但在這個不可預測的世界中

  • and what we found was that in this

    我們發現,

  • completely unpredictable world

    大部分的人都在

  • that most of the people who were surviving

    用截然不同的定律準則在生活。

  • were working with sort of a different set of principles,

    這就是我想討論的。

  • and I want to talk a little bit about that.

    在網路紀元之前,如果你記得的話,

  • Before the Internet, if you remember,

    當我們想要提供服務,

  • when we tried to create services,

    你必須提供硬體、

  • what you would do is you'd create

    系統,和軟體層,

  • the hardware layer and the network layer and the software

    可能得花上好幾百萬。

  • and it would cost millions of dollars

    才能做的基本服務。

  • to do anything that was substantial.

    所以當要做任何事 都必須好幾百萬美元,

  • So when it costs millions of dollars to do something substantial,

    你會去讀個工商管理碩士、

  • what you would do is you'd get an MBA

    寫個計畫書、

  • who would write a plan

    從創投公司

  • and get the money

    或大公司找資金,

  • from V.C.s or big companies,

    然後雇用設計師和工程師,

  • and then you'd hire the designers and the engineers,

    來製造產品。

  • and they'd build the thing.

    這是網路紀元之前,B.I 的創業模型。

  • This is the Before Internet, B.I., innovation model.

    但有了網路之後,

  • What happened after the Internet was

    創新的代價變低許多,

  • the cost of innovation went down so much

    因為合作與分配的成本、

  • because the cost of collaboration, the cost of distribution,

    通訊的成本,以及摩爾定律,

  • the cost of communication, and Moore's Law

    讓嘗試新事物的代價

  • made it so that the cost of trying a new thing

    變得幾乎是零了。

  • became nearly zero,

    所以才會有谷歌、臉書、雅虎等公司,

  • and so you would have Google, Facebook, Yahoo,

    由那些根本沒按照規矩來的學生創立,

  • students that didn't have permission

    沒人同意他們可以創新——

  • permissionless innovation

    不用任何人首肯,不需要別人講解,

  • didn't have permission, didn't have PowerPoints,

    他們只是一股腦的做出東西來,

  • they just built the thing,

    賺到一些錢,

  • then they raised the money,

    然後從中摸索出商業經營的方法,

  • and then they sort of figured out a business plan

    或許之後再雇用一些工商管理碩士。

  • and maybe later on they hired some MBAs.

    所以網路的產生

  • So the Internet caused innovation,

    讓在軟體服務的創新,

  • at least in software and services,

    從以往由MBA主導的創業模式,

  • to go from an MBA-driven innovation model

    變成由設計師與工程師主導。

  • to a designer-engineer-driven innovation model,

    並把創新帶到了一個新的境界。

  • and it pushed innovation to the edges,

    從學校宿舍到新創公司,

  • to the dorm rooms, to the startups,

    不需要大企業的介入。

  • away from the large institutions,

    那些無聊老舊的大企業,曾經擁有金錢,

  • the stodgy old institutions that had the power

    能力和權力,現在不然。

  • and the money and the authority.

    我都知道這些網路公司的故事。

  • And we all know this. We all know this happened on the Internet.

    但同樣的事情,這也發生在其他地方。

  • It turns out it's happening in other things, too.

    讓我舉個例子,

  • Let me give you some examples.

    在媒體實驗室,我們不只有做硬體,

  • So at the Media Lab, we don't just do hardware.

    我們從事各方面的研發。

  • We do all kinds of things.

    我們做生物、硬體,

  • We do biology, we do hardware,

    尼葛洛龐帝教授的名言所說 「不展示成果就死」,

  • and Nicholas Negroponte famously said, "Demo or die,"

    這是相對於傳統學術領域 的格言「不出版就死」。

  • as opposed to "Publish or perish,"

    他也常說,展示的成果 只需要成功一次即可。

  • which was the traditional academic way of thinking.

    因為我們做出的初始模型 可以激發那些大公司

  • And he often said, the demo only has to work once,

    進而影響這個世界,創造出

  • because the primary mode of us impacting the world

    像Kindle電子閱讀器和

  • was through large companies

    樂高Mindstorms機器人等產品。

  • being inspired by us

    但今日,我們有能力

  • and creating products like the Kindle or Lego Mindstorms.

    以非常低廉的成本創造出產品。

  • But today, with the ability

    我想要改寫這個格言,

  • to deploy things into the real world at such low cost,

    而且這是正式的官方聲明,

  • I'm changing the motto now,

    我要說:「不創造產品就死」。

  • and this is the official public statement.

    你必須把東西做出來讓這世界看到,

  • I'm officially saying, "Deploy or die."

    那才算數。

  • You have to get the stuff into the real world

    有時會是由大公司做出,

  • for it to really count,

    然後另一位講者尼葛洛龐帝教授 就能講講衛星的事。

  • and sometimes it will be large companies,

    (掌聲)

  • and Nicholas can talk about satellites.

    謝謝

  • (Applause)

    但我們是可以靠自己達成的,

  • Thank you.

    不需要靠大企業的幫助。

  • But we should be getting out there ourselves

    去年,我們送了一群學生去深圳

  • and not depending on large institutions to do it for us.

    他們與當地的創業家 一起坐在工廠的地板

  • So last year, we sent a bunch of students to Shenzhen,

    真是很棒的經驗。

  • and they sat on the factory floors

    在那裏,

  • with the innovators in Shenzhen, and it was amazing.

    有生產製造的儀器,

  • What was happening there

    他們不是在做 初始模型或投影片簡報,

  • was you would have these manufacturing devices,

    他們在微調那些製造的器材,

  • and they weren't making prototypes or PowerPoints.

    直接在製造的器材上實現創新。

  • They were fiddling with the manufacturing equipment

    工廠由那些設計師操控,

  • and innovating right on the manufacturing equipment.

    設計師就在工廠之中。

  • The factory was in the designer,

    所以你可以

  • and the designer was literally in the factory.

    走到小賣場,

  • And so what you would do is,

    馬上看到完成的手機。

  • you'd go down to the stalls

    所以不像在矽谷Palo Alto的孩子,

  • and you would see these cell phones.

    忙著架設新的網站。

  • So instead of starting little websites

    在深圳地孩子在製作新的手機,

  • like the kids in Palo Alto do,

    他們研發新手機就像矽谷的孩子

  • the kids in Shenzhen make new cell phones.

    造新網站一樣。

  • They make new cell phones like kids in Palo Alto

    所以在那手機的創新之蓬勃,

  • make websites,

    有如熱帶雨林。

  • and so there's a rainforest

    他們就是製造手機,

  • of innovation going on in the cell phone.

    到小賣場賣一些手機。

  • What they do is, they make a cell phone,

    再看看別人的產品,調整,

  • go down to the stall, they sell some,

    再做一千多個,拿去賣。

  • they look at the other kids' stuff, go up,

    這跟軟體業不是很像嗎?

  • make a couple thousand more, go down.

    這很像是一個很敏捷的軟體開發模式,

  • Doesn't this sound like a software thing?

    測試,重新來過,

  • It sounds like agile software development,

    當你以為這只能適用於軟體,

  • A/B testing and iteration,

    深圳的孩子已經將他應用在硬體了。

  • and what we thought you could only do with software

    我實驗室下一個研究人員,我希望

  • kids in Shenzhen are doing this in hardware.

    就是來自那些深圳的研發人員之一。

  • My next fellow, I hope, is going to be

    從剛剛的例子,

  • one of these innovators from Shenzhen.

    我們看到把研發推到一個新的境界。

  • And so what you see is

    我們討論3D列印等新技術,

  • that is pushing innovation to the edges.

    那很棒,但這是Limor

  • We talk about 3D printers and stuff like that,

    她是我們最好的研究生之一,

  • and that's great, but this is Limor.

    她正站在一個三星泰科

  • She is one of our favorite graduates,

    自動電路板設計機

  • and she is standing in front of a Samsung

    這玩意能在一小時內把2萬3千的零組件

  • Techwin Pick and Place Machine.

    焊接到電路板上。

  • This thing can put 23,000 components per hour

    這是盒裝的工廠,

  • onto an electronics board.

    以往需要滿工廠的工人

  • This is a factory in a box.

    用手工組裝完成的工作,

  • So what used to take a factory full of workers

    她只需要這個位於紐約的小盒子,

  • working by hand

    就可輕易完成。

  • in this little box in New York,

    她不需要去到深圳,

  • she's able to have effectively

    就可以生產產品。

  • She doesn't actually have to go to Shenzhen

    她只要買下這個盒子就可以生產,

  • to do this manufacturing.

    所以生產、創新的成本、

  • She can buy this box and she can manufacture it.

    製造初始模型的成本、分配、製造、硬體,

  • So manufacturing, the cost of innovation,

    都變得非常低廉。

  • the cost of prototyping, distribution, manufacturing, hardware,

    創新已經被推往這個新的境界,

  • is getting so low

    學生與新創公司就可以自行製造。

  • that innovation is being pushed to the edges

    這東西還很新,但一定會變成主流,

  • and students and startups are being able to build it.

    也會產生許多改變,

  • This is a recent thing, but this will happen

    就像網路改變了軟體業。

  • and this will change

    Sorona是杜邦發展出的一個程序,

  • just like it did with software.

    使用基因工程改造的微生物,

  • Sorona is a DuPont process

    將玉米轉製成聚酯纖維,

  • that uses a genetically engineered microbe

    這製程的效率比 化石燃料方法增進了30%,

  • to turn corn sugar into polyester.

    且對環境更為友善。

  • It's 30 percent more efficient than the fossil fuel method,

    基因工程和生物工程,

  • and it's much better for the environment.

    創造出了許多

  • Genetic engineering and bioengineering

    很好的嶄新機會。

  • are creating a whole bunch

    在化學、計算、記憶體上都有應用。

  • of great new opportunities

    應用層面很廣,很明顯地在醫學方面也是,

  • for chemistry, for computation, for memory.

    但或許我們也可以應用在生產

  • We will probably be doing a lot, obviously doing health things,

    與製造方面。

  • but we will probably be growing chairs

    可是問題是,Sorona的研發 投入了四億美金,

  • and buildings soon.

    耗費了七年才完成。

  • The problem is, Sorona costs about 400 million dollars

    這似乎讓你想起古早的 大型主機那個年代,

  • and took seven years to build.

    但事實上,在生物工程領域,

  • It kind of reminds you of the old mainframe days.

    創新的成品也在降低中。

  • The thing is, the cost of innovation

    這是一個桌上型的基因測序儀,

  • in bioengineering is also going down.

    曾經,要定序基因需要 花上好幾百萬的資金。

  • This is desktop gene sequencer.

    現在你只需要一個桌機,

  • It used to cost millions and millions of dollars to sequence genes.

    孩子們在學校宿舍就可以做。

  • Now you can do it on a desktop like this,

    這是一個名叫"Gen9"的基因組合器,

  • and kids can do this in dorm rooms.

    現在當你試圖合成一個基因時,

  • This is Gen9 gene assembler,

    某個在工廠的人,

  • and so right now when you try to print a gene,

    會以手動的方式使用吸量管將材料混合,

  • what you do is somebody in a factory

    在一百個鹼基對中就會出現一個錯誤,

  • with pipettes puts the thing together by hand,

    而且需要投注很長的時間以及可觀的金錢。

  • you have one error per 100 base pairs,

    這個嶄新的儀器,

  • and it takes a long time and costs a lot of money.

    在一個晶片上組裝基因,

  • This new device

    不會在一百個鹼基對中就出現一個錯誤,

  • assembles genes on a chip,

    而是在一萬個鹼基對中才會有一個錯誤。

  • and instead of one error per 100 base pairs,

    在這個實驗室裡,我們將具有全世界

  • it's one error per 10,000 base pairs.

    一年的基因合成容量,

  • In this lab, we will have the world's capacity

    一年兩億鹼基對。

  • of gene printing within a year,

    這有點類似我們從手工製的

  • 200 million base pairs a year.

    電晶體收音機,

  • This is kind of like when we went

    到英特爾的奔騰處理器。

  • from transistor radios wrapped by hand

    這將會成為生物工程界的奔騰處理器。

  • to the Pentium.

    將生物工程帶到

  • This is going to become the Pentium of bioengineering,

    學校宿舍與新創公司伸手可及之處。

  • pushing bioengineering into the hands

    所以這個現象我們在軟體、硬體,