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  • Cloudy climate change. How clouds affect earth's temperature

    模糊的氣候變遷 雲層如何影響地球溫度

  • Earth's average surface temperature has warmed by point eight celsius since 1750

    地表平均氣溫從1750至今 增加了0.8度

  • when carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere have doubled


  • which is expected before the end of the twenty first century


  • Researchers project global temperature will have raisen by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius

    研究員預測地球溫度會上升1.5度 變成4.5度

  • if the increase is near the low end 1.5 celsius


  • then we're already half way there


  • we should be more able the adopt with some regions are becoming dryer and less productive

    如此一來 某些地方會更乾燥貧瘠

  • but others becoming warmer wetter and more productive


  • on the other hand, a rise of 4.5 degree celsius would be similar in magnitude

    氣溫提高4.5度後 就相當於發生了

  • to the warming that's occur since the last glacier maximum, 22 thousand years ago


  • when most of the north America was under ice sheet 2 kilometer's thick


  • so that would represent the dramatic change of climate


  • so it's vitally important for scientists to predict the change in temperature


  • with as much precision as possible. so the society can plan for the future


  • the present range of uncertainty simply too large to be confident of how best to respond to climate change

    目前氣溫變化幅度太大 無法提出最佳相應措施

  • but this estima to 1.5 to 4.5 celsius for doubling the carbon dioxide hasn't change in 35 years

    但「二氧化碳增加一倍 氣溫上升1.5到4.5度」的估計 停滯了35年

  • why haven't we been able to narrow it down?


  • the answer is we don't yet understand aerosols in clouds well enough


  • but the new experimentists is tackling the problem


  • in order to predict how the temperature will change. Scientist need to know some called earth climate sensitivity.

    為了預測溫度如何變化 科學家必須知道何謂「氣候敏感性」

  • the temperature change in response to radiative forcing

    也就是因應輻射強迫 產生的氣溫波動(ΔF為輻射強迫、ΔT為輻射強迫帶來的地表溫度改變)

  • A radiat forum set is a temperate imbalace between the energy receive from the sun


  • and energy radiate back out to space like the imbalance cause by increase of green house gases

    和發散的輻射量不平衡 而會不平衡是由於溫室氣體增加了

  • to correct imbalance of warms up or cools down,


  • we can determine earth climate sensitivity from the experiment we've already performed in industrial age since 1750.


  • and then the uses number to determine how much more it will warm to varies projected radiated forcing in the twenty first century

    然後用相關數字推算21世紀的暖化程度 對輻射效應會有什麼影響

  • to do this, we need to know two things.

    要達成以上目的 得先知道兩件事

  • First, the global temperature rise since 1750.

    首先 1750年至今的地球溫度上升了

  • And second, the radiative forcing of the present day climate relative to the pre-industrial climate

    再來 今天的輻射強迫現象和前工業時期的氣候息息相關

  • for the radiative forcing we know that human activities has been increased green house gases in the atmosphere which warm the planet

    人類活動增加了大氣中的溫室氣體 讓地球變暖

  • but our activities have at the same time increase the amount of aerosols particles in clouds which have cooled the planet.

    但同時也增加了雲層裡的氣溶膠粒子(註: 固體或液體 藉吸收或發散輻射影響氣候) 讓地球降溫

  • Pre-industrial green house gas concentrations are well measured


  • From bubbles trap in ice course of tent in Greenland and Antarctic.


  • So the greenhouse gas forcings are precisely known.


  • But we have no way of direct recongnition how cloudy it was in 1750.


  • And that’s the main source of uncertainty in earth climate sensitivity.


  • To understand pre-industrial cloudy is we must use computer models

    想了解前工業社會的雲量狀況 就必須用電腦模型輔助

  • that reliably simulate the process is responsible for forming nuclei in clouds.


  • Now, to most people aerosols are the things to make your hair stick.

    在許多人眼中 氣溶膠就等於髮膠

  • But that’s only one type of aerosols.


  • Atmospheric aerosols are tiny liquid or solid particles suspended in the air.


  • There are either primary from dust sea spray salt, burning biomass


  • Or secondary formed by gas to particle conversion in the atmosphere


  • Also known as particle nucleation.


  • Aerosols are everywhere in the atmosphere. And they can block out the sun and polluted urban environments.

    大氣中充滿了煙霧質 它們會阻擋太陽光、汙染都市環境

  • Or bath distant mountain in blue pace.


  • More importantly the cloud droplet cannot form without an aerosol particle seed.


  • So without aerosol particle, therell be no clouds.

    沒有煙霧質 就沒有雲

  • And without clouds, there will be no fresh water.

    沒有雲 就沒有淡水

  • The climate will be much hotter. And there will be no life.

    沒有淡水 天氣會越來越熱 生物就會隨之滅絕

  • So we owe our existence to aerosol particles.


  • However, despite their importance how aerosol particles form in the atmosphere


  • aren’t very effect on clouds and poorly understood.


  • Even the vapor is responsible for aerosol particle formation and not well established.

    蒸氣就能產生煙霧質的道理 卻沒什麼人知道

  • Because at present in only might mute amount near one molecule per million million molecules are there.

    現在大氣中的煙霧質極少 濃度是一萬億分之一

  • This lack of understanding is the main reason for the large uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

    缺乏的雲層認識 是無法掌握氣候敏感性的主因

  • And the corresponding wild range of future climate projections.


  • However, an experiment under way is certain named surprisingly cloud has manage to build a steel vessel


  • That’s large enough and has low enough contamination that aerosol formation can

    他們用龐大的鋼鐵量筒 去掉裡頭雜質 在人為環境下

  • For the first time, be measured under tightly controlled atmosphere condition in the bar of tray.


  • In the first five years of operation, cloud has identified the vapor

    研究的頭五年 科學家發現雲就是蒸氣

  • responsible for the aerosol formation in the atmosphere.


  • Which includes sulfuric acid, ammonia amines and biogenic vapours from trees.

    煙霧質包括: 硫酸、氨、胺、從樹而來的生物蒸氣

  • Using an eye and icing particle bean for the certain proton synchrotron

    使用質子同步加速器 以冰粒子的觀點來看

  • Cloud is also investigating if galactic cosmic rays enhance the formation of aerosols in clouds.


  • This has been suggested as possible unaccounted natural climate forcing agent


  • since the flux of cause midgrade raining down in the atmosphere.


  • There is with solar activity.


  • So cloud is addressing two big questions:


  • Firstly, how cloudy was the pre-industrial climate?


  • And hence, how much have clouds changed due to human activities?


  • That knowledge will help sharpen climate projections in the 21st century.

    尋求這兩個解答 將能更精準預測本世紀的氣候變化

  • And simply, could the puzzling observation of solar climate variability in the pre-industrial


  • be explained by an influence of galactic cosmic rays on the clouds?


  • Ambitious but realistic goals, when your heads in the clouds

    探究雲層 追求更加偉大、實際的目標

Cloudy climate change. How clouds affect earth's temperature

模糊的氣候變遷 雲層如何影響地球溫度

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B1 中級 中文 英國腔 TED-Ed 氣候 大氣 雲層 氣溫 輻射

【TED-Ed】 雲朵氣候學:雲朵如何影響地球氣溫? Cloudy climate change: How clouds affect Earth's temperature - Jasper Kirkby

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    Go Tutor 發佈於 2014 年 11 月 21 日