The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster,

第一題，一年有多少人因天災而死亡

how did that change during the last century?

上一世紀又為什麼有這樣的變化

Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half?

比之前多兩倍，還是和全世界一樣，又或是比之前的一半還少

Please answer A, B or C.

請作答

I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

我已經看到許多答案了，你們的回復速度比許多大學生還要快很多

They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

他們作答速度很慢，他們想很久，很久，很久

Oh, very, very good.

真是太好了

And we go to the next question.

我們進行下一道題目

So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years?

30歲的女性會去學校進修多久：7年，5年還是3年

A, B or C? Please answer.

哪一個選項，請作答

And we go to the next question.

再下一題

In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change?

過去20年來，世界上的貧窮人口比例是如何改變

Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.

極端貧窮─三餐不繼的那種

Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve?

這個比例是以前的兩倍，多一點，差不多還是減少了一半

A, B or C?

哪一個選項

Now, answers.

請作答

You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000.

你可以從這張圖表看到從1900年到2000年，世界上天災帶來的致死率

In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters

1900年，每年大約五十萬人因自然災害而死

Floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

水災、地震、火山爆發、乾旱等天然災害，之後變成怎麼樣了呢

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered.

這是Gapminder在瑞典問大家的問題

The Swedish public answered like this:

瑞典民眾這樣回答

Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved.

一半的人回答增加兩倍，百分之38的人說差不多，百分之12的人說減少一半

This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down

這是災害研究的最好數據，而且目前仍有變化

And it goes to the Second World War

一直持續到二戰時期

And after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half.

二戰後，比例開始下降，比之前還減少了一半

The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know.

你知道世界上越來越有能力保護人民遠離貧窮

So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

所以只有百分之12的瑞典人知道

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

我去動物園請教黑猩猩

(Laughter) (Applause)

(笑聲)(掌聲)

The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random

黑猩猩不看晚間新聞，所以他們隨機選擇

So the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do?

而瑞典人答錯的比率比黑猩猩隨機的選擇還差，現在你們要怎麼做

That's you. You were beaten by the chimps.

這是你們的答案，你們也被黑猩猩打敗了

But it was close.

但是比率已經很接近了

You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough.

你們的答對率比瑞典人好三倍，可是這還不夠

You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

你們不能只和瑞典人比較

You must have higher ambitions in the world.

要對世界有更大的抱負

Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

我們來看下一題：女性就學問題

Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school?

你可以看到男人就學八年，那女性就學多久

Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

我們也問過瑞典人這個問題，這給你暗示了，不是嗎

The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? (Laughter)

正確答案可能又是瑞典人最少選擇的那個選項，不是嗎

Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

大家看，答案揭曉

Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

女性就學時間已經趕上男性就學時間

This is the U.S. public. And this is you.

這是美國大眾的選擇，這是你們的

Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations

出來了，恭喜你們

You're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me —

你們比兩倍的瑞典人好，但你們不需要我

So how come?

怎麼解釋

I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties.

我覺得是因為大家都注意到很多國家和地區的女性都遇到就學困難

They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting.

他們一去學校就被禁止繼續讀書，這是非常令人討厭的

But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live,

但世界上大部分的人

most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less.

大部分國家的女性上學時間和男性差不多，或多或少

That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all.

這不代表性別平等，不完全是這樣

They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today.

他們仍受嚴重的限制，但學校教育在世界上是存在的

Now, we miss the majority.

現在，我們卻忽略了多數

When you answer, you answer according to the worst places

你是根據最惡劣的環境來作答

And there you are right, but you miss the majority.

你的想法是對的，但你卻忽略的大多數

What about poverty?

那貧窮呢

Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved

我們已經很清楚貧窮人口已經少了幾乎一半了

And in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right.

我們在美國問大家這個問題，只有一半的人答對

And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

你們呢？你們快追上黑猩猩了

(Laughter) (Applause)

(笑聲)(掌聲)

That little, just a few of you!

差距很小，只差幾個人了

There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

你們知道的，很多人已經有先入為主的觀念

And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

而且在許多富有國家中，他們覺得我們永遠解決不了極度貧窮

Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened.

他們當然這樣認為，因為他們根本不知道發生什麼事

The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

要了解未來，首先要先了解現狀

These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run

這些問題都是Gapminder的無知計畫試驗階段的首要問題

And it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling.

這個計畫已經開始了，我老闆和我兒子Ola Rosling去年開始實施

He's cofounder and director, and he wanted,

他是共同創辦人兼主任

Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.

Ola跟我說我們要更有條理地打擊無知

So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random

試驗已經揭發大部分人的無知率比隨機比率還差

So we have to think about preconceived ideas

我們要思考先入為主的觀念

And one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.

世界收入分配就是先入為主的旗醫一個觀念

Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

看這裡，這是1975年的數據

It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day

這是各種收入的人數，從一天一塊錢

See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day,

在一天一塊錢這區有個隆起的小山丘

And then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

另外，在一天十塊錢到一百塊錢之間也有一個隆起的小山丘

The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps

世界上有兩個族群，這就像一個雙峰駱駝世界

The poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.

貧窮的一區，富有的一區，還有一些人夾在中間

But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed,

但看看這怎麼改變的，當我往前走，有了什麼改變呢

the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge.

世界人口逐漸增加，山峰也開始合併了

The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only.

低的山峰和高的山峰合併在一起，雙峰駱駝死了，所以我們現在只剩單峰駱駝了

The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty.

貧窮人數減少了，但可怕的是，還是有很多人處於極惡劣的貧窮環境

We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

不過我們至少還有這個族群，將近十億人在這裡，但現在就要解決這個問題了

The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

我們現在的挑戰是要分散這個山峰，了解大部分族群在哪裡

And that is very clearly shown in this question.

而這個問題已經非常清楚地顯示出來了

We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children

我們一定會問世界上有多少一歲的小嬰兒

who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent?

已經對麻疹和其他我們已經纏鬥多年的疾病有抗體呢，百分之20，50，還是80

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

這是美國和瑞典民眾的答案

Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is.

看看瑞典的結果，你們知道正確答案是什麼了吧

Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

瑞典的世界衛生導師到底是誰

Well, it's me. It's me.

是我，是我

It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

這真的非常困難，非常困難

However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines

然而，Ola測出我們所知道的東西的這種方法已經登上頭條

And CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there,

而且美國有線電視新聞網將這個結果刊登在網站上，還有附上題目

Millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments

已經有上百萬人民作答，網站上好像有兩千則回覆，其中一則說

"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

「我猜沒有一位媒體人全都答對」

So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences.

所以Ola跟我說：「拿著這個裝置，你已經被邀請進記者會

Give it to them and measure what the media know."

讓他們用這個裝置，並估算媒體所知」

And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media.

先生女士們，美國媒體第一次在會議上有非正式的結果

And then, lately, from the European Union media.

這個是歐盟媒體的答對率

You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media.

你看，問題不在於人們不理媒體的報導

The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

問題在於媒體根本不了解自己

What shall we do about this, Ola? Do we have any ideas?

那我們該怎麼辦呢，我們有什麼方法嗎

Yes, I have an idea, but first, I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

有，我有一個辦法，但首先，你們被黑猩猩打敗實在讓我感到很抱歉

Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

但你們實在很幸運，我要安慰你們，讓你們知道這其實不是你們的錯

Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That's basically what I will do.

我現在要給你們一些訣竅，讓你們以後可以打敗黑猩猩，這是最基本我可以做到的事

But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place.

但是在那之前，我們來看看為什麼我們這麼無知，這是從這個地方開始的

It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

胡迪克斯瓦爾，瑞典北部一個城市

It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

這是我成長的鄰近地區，那個鄰近地區有很大的問題

Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well.

其實，那裡有的問題，你們成長的鄰近地區其實也都有

It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet.

這不是典型例子，好嗎？這讓我對地球上的生命有偏見

So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. We have a personal bias

所以這就是第一個無知的難題，我們已經有個人偏見

We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet

我們的出生背景不同，認識的人也不同，而我們有很多不一樣的經驗

And on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem.

緊接著，我們開始上學，又增加了一個問題

Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

我喜歡上學，但老師都只教過時的世界觀

because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions,

因為他們去學校的時候學到知識，而現在，他們卻只用正面意思來形容這個世界

and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes.

還有那些教科書，當然，那印出來的東西都已經是過時的世界

And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date.

根本都沒有更新教材

So that's what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias.

而那就是我們要注意的事，我們有這些過時的事實，再加上自己的個人偏見

What happens next is news, okay?

接下來是新聞

An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational.

一為優秀的記者知道要怎麼挑故事，讓它成為頭條，人們會因為它很轟動而去閱讀

Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we're afraid of

不尋常的事情更有趣，不是嗎？他們會誇大地闡述，尤其是我們害怕的事情

A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

一位瑞典民眾被鯊魚攻擊可以佔據瑞典一星期的頭條新聞

So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from.

想要遠離這三件扭曲的資訊來源很困難

They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas

他們不斷地疲勞轟炸我們，而且還讓我們心裡產生奇怪的想法

and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition.

接著，這就成為人類的直覺

It was good in evolution. It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

這有助於進化，它讓我們用非常快的速度概括並做結論

It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none

它幫這我們誇大我們害怕的事，明明沒有因果關係，我們就偏要找出關聯性

And we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average

然後我們就有虛幻的信心，相信我們是最優秀的駕駛人

Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better."

平均每個人都回答說我很會開車

Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview

好，這是一個很好的進化論，但如果是世界觀呢

It is the exact reason why it's upside down.

這是為什麼世界觀會顛倒的真正原因

The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around

逐漸上漲的趨勢遲遲不肯減少，而且還有其他原因

And in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

在這個例子中，黑猩猩以我們的直覺來打敗我們，而它卻變成我們的弱點

It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

這應該是我們的長處，不是嗎

So how do we solve such problems?

那我們到底跟怎麼解決這個問題呢

First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it.

首先，我們先估算，再進行 治癒

So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance.

估算可以讓我們了解無知的模樣

We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world

我們去年開始這項試驗，現在，我們很確定世界上有非常多無知的人

And the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development

而這項試驗是為了要提升全球各領域及各層面的發展，

such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance.

例如：氣候、瀕臨絕種的物種、人權、性別平等、能源和金融

All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts

各行各業都有事實，有些機構嘗試要讓大家注意到這些事實

So I've started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF

我已經聯絡過一些機構，像是世界自然基金會、國際特赦組織和聯合國兒童基金會

And asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know?

我問他們，你最喜歡哪一件大眾不知道而你卻知道的事實

Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts

好，我收集了這些事實，想像一下這會是多長的一個清單，250個事實

And then we poll the public and see where they score worst.

之後，我們做了民意測驗，查看民眾最差的分數

So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans

所以我們有一些結果很難看的短清單，其中幾個例子就像Hans剛剛問你們的問題

And we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results

我們很容易找到這種恐怖的結果

Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

這個小清單，我們要怎麼做呢

Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use

我們把它變成一個知識證明，你可以用的全球知識證明

If you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

如果你是一個大機構、一所中學、一所大學或是一個新的代辦處，這都能證明你有全球化知識

Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees.

基本上，我們不會雇用分數只有像黑猩猩一樣的人

Of course you shouldn't. So maybe 10 years from now

當然你不應該只得到那樣的分數，所以大概從現在開始算的十年內

If this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

如果這個計劃成功了，你就要在面試中填完這個瘋狂的全球化知識

So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed?

現在我們來討論實際的方法，你們要如何成功答對題目

There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports.

就在這裡，當然有一個方法就是熬夜讀完所有報告上的事實

That will never happen, actually.

但其實那不可能會發生

Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

Hans也認為那不可能會成真

People don't have that time. People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

人們沒有那麼多時間，大家都喜歡抄近路，而這就是捷徑

We need to turn our intuition into strength again. We need to be able to generalize.

我們必須將直覺再次轉變成我們的優勢，我們必須要歸納重點

So now I'm going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb.

所以現在我要教你幾個能把誤解轉變成基本原則的方法

Let's start with the first misconception. This is very widespread. Everything is getting worse.

我們從第一個誤解開始，這非常廣泛，所有事情都變糟了

You heard it. You thought it yourself. The other way to think is, most things improve.

你聽過，你覺得那就是你。另外一個方法就是所有事都變好了

So you're sitting with a question in front of you and you're unsure.

你正面臨一個問題，而你沒有把握

You should guess "improve." Okay? Don't go for the worse.

你應該要猜「改善」好嗎？千萬不要選擇變差

That will help you score better on our tests.

那會幫你在我們的考試中得高分

That was the first one.

那是第一題

There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. It's a terrible inequality.

世界上有錢人與貧窮人的差距越來越大，這樣的不平等很可怕

Yeah, it's an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

對，這是個不平等的世界，但你看數據，這是一個突起的小山峰

Okay? If you feel unsure, go for "the most people are in the middle."

如果你不確定，就去找在「最中間的那群人」

That's going to help you get the answer right.

他們會為你解答

Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich

下一個先入為主的想法是國家或是人們需要先變得很有錢

to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

才能像女孩們在學校一樣，在學校好好社交，為自然災害做好準備

No, no, no. That's wrong.

不，那是錯誤的想法

Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school.

看，中峰部分已經有女生去上學了

So if you are unsure, go for the "the majority already have this

所以如果你不確定，去找大部分人為你解答

Like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

像可用電戶數和就學女性等這種事情

They're only rules of thumb, so of course they don't apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize.

他們只是基本原則，他們當然不適用於所有事情上，但這可以幫你做歸納

Let's look at the last one. If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous.

現在來看最後一題，如果有東西，對，這是很經典的例子，鯊魚很危險

No — well, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

不，嗯，對，但我要說的是，他們在全球的統計值上不是那麼的重要

I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

我其實，非常害怕鯊魚

So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions

所以我一看到有關我害怕的東西的問題，像是地震或其他宗教信仰

Maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

我可能也會怕恐怖組織或鯊魚，假設你要誇大這個問題

That's a rule of thumb. Of course there are dangerous things that are also great. Sharks kill very, very few.

這是一個基本原則，當然也有很多危險的東西。鯊魚很少吃人

That's how you should think.

你應該要這麼想

With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this.

只要有了這四個基本原則，你會回答得比黑猩猩好，因為牠們不知道這四點原則

They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

他們不能歸納這幾個原則

And hopefully we can turn your world around and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

你要慶幸我們可以幫你把世界扭轉歸正，我們要打被黑猩猩，好嗎

That's a systematic approach.

這是個有系統的方法

Now the question, is this important?

問題是，這重要嗎

Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it, and how to bring girls in school

對，了解貧窮、極度貧窮、怎麼打擊貧窮和如何讓女性就學很重要

When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

我們意識到這其實有接替的，這我們可以了解

But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale?

但我們去在意這個水平的富人重要嗎

I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason.

我會說，重要，非常重要，原因一樣

If you have a fact-based worldview of today

如果今天，你有一個事實為基礎的世界觀

You might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.

你可能有機會了解未來會發生什麼事

We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

我們回到1975年的這兩個峰

That's when I was born, and I selected the West.

這是我出生那年，我收集了西部的資料

That's the current EU countries and North America.

而那是現在的歐盟及北美州

Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are.