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  • The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,

    作家喬治‧艾略特 (George Eliot) 曾警告我們,

  • among all forms of mistake,

    在所有類型的錯誤之中,

  • prophecy is the most gratuitous.

    預言是最沒根據的,

  • The person that we would all acknowledge

    我們都要感謝這位作家。

  • as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.

    就是二十世紀的尤吉‧貝拉 (Yogi Berra) 也同意,

  • He said, "It's tough to make predictions,

    他說:「預測很困難,

  • especially about the future."

    尤其對未來的預測。」

  • I'm going to ignore their cautions

    我不理會他們的警告,

  • and make one very specific forecast.

    而且作出一項特別的預測。

  • In the world that we are creating very quickly,

    現今的我們創造步調很快,

  • we're going to see more and more things

    我們將要看到,

  • that look like science fiction,

    像科幻小說一樣的東西越來越多

  • and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.

    而像工作的事越來越少

  • Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,

    在不久將來,汽車懂得自行駕駛,

  • which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.

    意味著我們需要更少的貨車司機,

  • We're going to hook Siri up to Watson

    我們把 Siri 虛擬個人助理與 IBM 超級電腦華生連接起來,

  • and use that to automate a lot of the work

    並使用這些虛擬助理,自動執行大量工作,

  • that's currently done by customer service reps

    而現時這些工作須由客服處理、

  • and troubleshooters and diagnosers,

    解答疑難問題和診斷。

  • and we're already taking R2D2,

    我們已經使用阿凸(R2D2),

  • painting him orange, and putting him to work

    替他塗上橙色,把他投入工作,

  • carrying shelves around warehouses,

    叫他到倉庫拿貨,

  • which means we need a lot fewer people

    意味著我們不需要那麼多的工人

  • to be walking up and down those aisles.

    在走道上走來走去。

  • Now, for about 200 years,

    約二百年來人們一直在說的,

  • people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --

    同時也是我現在告訴你們的 —

  • the age of technological unemployment is at hand

    這年代因科技而產生的失業問題,就在眼前 —

  • starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain

    由英國勒德分子 (Luddites) 搗毀織布機開始,

  • just about two centuries ago,

    大約兩個世紀前,

  • and they have been wrong.

    他們一直是錯的。

  • Our economies in the developed world have coasted along

    已發展國家的經濟

  • on something pretty close to full employment.

    幾乎無法實現全民就業。

  • Which brings up a critical question:

    這帶出了一條關鍵問題:

  • Why is this time different, if it really is?

    為什麼這次不一樣了,真的不一樣嗎?

  • The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,

    不一樣的原因是,在過去的幾年,

  • our machines have started demonstrating skills

    我們的機器開始有了

  • they have never, ever had before:

    一些前所未見的能力

  • understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,

    理解、說話、聆聽、觀看、

  • answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.

    答問、書寫,他們仍在學習新的技巧,

  • For example, mobile humanoid robots

    例如:行動人型機器人

  • are still incredibly primitive,

    仍是令人難以置信的原始,

  • but the research arm of the Defense Department

    但是國防部的研究部門

  • just launched a competition

    剛剛發起了一場競賽,

  • to have them do things like this,

    使他們製造一些類似東西,

  • and if the track record is any guide,

    如果跟據過往成績紀錄以作參考,

  • this competition is going to be successful.

    這樣的競賽將會成功。

  • So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all

    現在看起來,我猜想這日子離我們不遠了

  • when we're going to have androids

    人型機器人將會做很多的事,

  • doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.

    做很多目前人們在的工作

  • And we're creating a world where there is going to be

    我們正在創造一個世界,那裡擁有

  • more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.

    的科技越來越多,職位卻越來越少,

  • It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling

    艾瑞克‧班恩約福森 (Erik Brynjolfsson) 和我叫這世界為

  • "the new machine age."

    「新機器時代」。

  • The thing to keep in mind is that

    我們要牢記

  • this is absolutely great news.

    這絕對是個好消息,

  • This is the best economic news on the planet these days.

    這些日子裡,在這顆星球上,最大的經濟新聞。

  • Not that there's a lot of competition, right?

    並不是那麼多競爭,對嗎?

  • This is the best economic news we have these days

    就是這些裡最大的經濟新聞,

  • for two main reasons.

    原因有二:

  • The first is, technological progress is what allows us

    首先,科技進步容許我們

  • to continue this amazing recent run that we're on

    繼續這項驚人的運作,而運作正進行中,

  • where output goes up over time,

    產量已持續上升了一段時間,

  • while at the same time, prices go down,

    而同一時間,價格卻在下降,

  • and volume and quality just continue to explode.

    數量和質量不斷爆發。

  • Now, some people look at this and talk about

    現在,有些人看看這個情況,並且談論起

  • shallow materialism,

    墮落物質主義,

  • but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.

    但是,這絕對是錯誤的看法,

  • This is abundance, which is exactly

    我們的經濟體系提供數量龐大的供應,

  • what we want our economic system to provide.

    這也正是我們所期待的。

  • The second reason that the new machine age

    新機器時代是一項好消息的

  • is such great news is that, once the androids

    第二個原因為,一旦人型機器人

  • start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,

    開始做這些工作,那麼我們不需要做同樣的工作了,

  • and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.

    可從苦差和勞碌工作中得到釋放。

  • Now, when I talk about this with my friends

    現在當我和身在劍橋 (麻省)

  • in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,

    和矽谷的朋友們說起這話題時,他們說:

  • "Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.

    「極好的。再沒有苦差,再沒有勞碌的工作。

  • This gives us the chance to imagine

    這樣就給我們機會去想像

  • an entirely different kind of society,

    一個完全不同的社會,

  • a society where the creators and the discoverers

    在這裡,創作人、發現者、

  • and the performers and the innovators

    表演者、創新者、

  • come together with their patrons and their financiers

    與他們的贊助者和融資者一起,

  • to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,

    談及不同議題,並款待、開導、

  • provoke each other."

    挑釁彼此。」

  • It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.

    這樣的社會看起來真的就像一場 TED 研習會,

  • And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.

    而事實上這裡有許多真理。

  • We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.

    我們看到令人驚異的百花齊放,

  • In a world where it is just about as easy

    在這世界,產生一件物體

  • to generate an object as it is to print a document,

    就像打印一份文件那麼的容易,

  • we have amazing new possibilities.

    我們有異乎尋常的新可能,

  • The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists

    過往的技工、業餘愛好者,

  • are now makers, and they're responsible

    現在成為了製造業者,他們負責

  • for massive amounts of innovation.

    大量的創新,

  • And artists who were formerly constrained

    而藝術家過往因種種制約

  • can now do things that were never, ever possible

    而未能做到的事,

  • for them before.

    現在可做到了。

  • So this is a time of great flourishing,

    所以,現在就是繁華昌盛的年代,

  • and the more I look around, the more convinced I become

    我越看得多,我更加堅信

  • that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,

    物理學家弗里曼‧戴森 (Freeman Dyson) 所說的

  • is not hyperbolic at all.

    根本不是誇飾,

  • This is just a plain statement of the facts.

    只是簡單清楚的事實陳述。

  • We are in the middle of an astonishing period.

    我們正處於令人驚訝的時期當中。

  • ["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]

    「科技是上帝賜予的禮物。繼生命的禮物之後,這可是上帝賜予的最大禮物。這是一切文明、藝術、科學之母。」 — 弗里曼‧戴森

  • Which brings up another great question:

    這帶來另一個大問題,

  • What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?

    在這個新機器時代,可會在什麼樣的情況下出錯呢?

  • Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.

    對嗎?很好、拖延、繁榮、回家,

  • We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges

    我們正面對兩項相當棘手的挑戰,

  • as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.

    尤其當我們朝著我們創造的未來一步步前進,

  • The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized

    第一是經濟上的,一個未經證實的故事

  • in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth

    貼切地做了總結

  • between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,

    那是亨利‧福特二世與華特‧魯瑟之間的反覆答問,

  • who was the head of the auto workers union.

    華特‧魯瑟是汽車工會領袖,

  • They were touring one of the new modern factories,

    他們在新的現代化工廠巡視中,

  • and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,

    福特以開玩笑的口吻對魯瑟說:

  • "Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots

    「你如何要這些機械人們

  • to pay union dues?"

    向你的工會交會費?」

  • And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,

    魯瑟連珠發炮般回應對方:「嘿,亨利,

  • how are you going to get them to buy cars?"

    你怎樣使它們購買你的汽車?」

  • Reuther's problem in that anecdote

    這段趣聞軼事中魯瑟的問題是,

  • is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy

    你很難向一個經濟體提供勞動力,

  • that's full of machines,

    而這個經濟體滿是機械人。

  • and we see this very clearly in the statistics.

    統計讓我們看清楚這件事,

  • If you look over the past couple decades

    如果你回望過去幾十年的

  • at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --

    資本收益率,換句話說即是企業利潤,

  • we see them going up,

    我們見到持續上升,

  • and we see that they're now at an all-time high.

    現在利潤看起來是空前的高,

  • If we look at the returns to labor, in other words

    如果我們看一下工作回報,簡言之,

  • total wages paid out in the economy,

    在整個經濟裡,資方所給付的總工資,

  • we see them at an all-time low

    我們看到工資卻是空前的低,

  • and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.

    而且兩者快速向相反方向而行,

  • So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.

    所以對魯瑟來說,這真是一則壞消息,

  • It looks like it might be great news for Ford,

    對福特來說,看起來倒像是一則好消息,

  • but it's actually not. If you want to sell

    然而實際上並不是好消息。如果你想

  • huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,

    向人們銷售大批價格稍微高一點的貨品,

  • you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.

    你就真的想要一群穩定的、富足的、為數可觀的中產階級,

  • We have had one of those in America

    在美國我們就有這樣的一群,

  • for just about the entire postwar period.

    約在整段戰後的時期,

  • But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.

    然而中產階級明顯地正遭逢巨大的威脅,

  • We all know a lot of the statistics,

    我們都知道許多的統計資料,

  • but just to repeat one of them,

    這裡只是重複一項罷,

  • median income in America has actually gone down

    事實上,美國的收入中位數

  • over the past 15 years,

    在過去 15 年都下跌了,

  • and we're in danger of getting trapped

    而我們身在危險中,

  • in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization

    受困於惡性的循環,不平等現象和兩極分化

  • continue to go up over time.

    經過一段時間後繼續往上走,

  • The societal challenges that come along

    我們要留意那些社會上的不公平。

  • with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.

    我們要留意那些社會上的不公平。

  • There are a set of societal challenges

    事實上我並不擔心

  • that I'm actually not that worried about,

    那一連串的社會挑戰,

  • and they're captured by images like this.

    他們被這樣形容,

  • This is not the kind of societal problem

    但這並不是我所關心的

  • that I am concerned about.

    社會問題種類。

  • There is no shortage of dystopian visions

    反烏托邦的願景並不短缺,

  • about what happens when our machines become self-aware,

    當我們的機器變為擁有自我意識時,

  • and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.

    而機械人決定揭竿起義,並聯合起來攻擊我們,

  • I'm going to start worrying about those

    我開始擔心終有一天,

  • the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.

    我的電腦察覺到我的印表機,

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

    (笑聲) (掌聲)

  • So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.

    所以這不是我們真正需要擔心的挑戰,

  • To tell you the kinds of societal challenges

    為了告訴你在新機器時代

  • that are going to come up in the new machine age,

    將面對的各種社會挑戰,

  • I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.

    我想告訴你一個故事,是關於兩個陳規定型的美國工人,

  • And to make them really stereotypical,

    為使故事讀來真的是刻板印象的,

  • let's make them both white guys.

    就當他們是兩個白種男人罷,

  • And the first one is a college-educated

    第一個是受過大學教育的,

  • professional, creative type, manager,

    專業、創作型的、經理、

  • engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.

    工程師、醫師、律師、那類型的工作者,

  • We're going to call him "Ted."

    我們稱他為「泰德」,

  • He's at the top of the American middle class.

    他位處美國中產階級的頂端。

  • His counterpart is not college-educated

    另一個並沒有接受大學教育,

  • and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,

    他是一個勞動者、普通文員、

  • does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.

    做一些低級白領或藍領階級的工作,

  • We're going to call that guy "Bill."

    我們稱他為「比爾」。

  • And if you go back about 50 years,

    如果你回到大約五十年前,

  • Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.

    比爾和泰德過著極其相似的生活,

  • For example, in 1960 they were both very likely

    例如:在 1960 年,他們倆極有可能

  • to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.

    同樣得到全職職位,每週工作總時數至少四十小時,

  • But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,

    但是社會研究員查爾斯‧麥瑞 (Charles Murray) 用文件證明了,

  • as we started to automate the economy,

    當我們開始建立自動化時,

  • and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,

    而 1960 年就是我們在日常工作中剛剛開始使用電腦的時候,

  • as we started to progressively inject technology

    我們開始逐步向市場經濟

  • and automation and digital stuff into the economy,

    注入科技、自動化、數位化的東西,

  • the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.

    比爾和泰德兩人的財富就此各走各路。

  • Over this time frame, Ted has continued

    經過一段時間後,泰德繼續

  • to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.

    持有一份全職工作,比爾則沒有全職工作,

  • In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,

    在許多情況下,比爾完全離開了經濟體系,

  • and Ted very rarely has.

    而泰德則很少離開。

  • Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.

    過了一段時間後,泰德的婚姻仍然幸福美滿,

  • Bill's hasn't.

    比爾的卻不美滿,

  • And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,

    泰德的小孩在健全完整的家庭中長大,

  • while Bill's absolutely have not over time.

    然而長時間來看, 比爾的小孩卻不是。

  • Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?

    那麼比爾是否退出了社會?

  • He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,

    他總統選舉的投票次數減少了

  • and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.

    而他更開始進出監獄,次數漸多,

  • So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,

    我並不是在陳述一個令人開心的社會潮流

  • and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.

    他們沒有任何可扭轉人生的機會

  • They're also true no matter which ethnic group

    無論哪個民族

  • or demographic group we look at,

    或人口的數量分布結構,他們也都如此,

  • and they're actually getting so severe

    實際上,他們變得如此嚴重,

  • that they're in danger of overwhelming

    有覆沒的危險,

  • even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.

    即使我們在民權運動取得驚人的進展。

  • And what my friends in Silicon Valley

    而我在矽谷和在劍橋(麻省)的朋友

  • and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.

    所忽略的,就是他們是泰德,

  • They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,

    他們過著這些異常忙碌兼有意義的生活,

  • and they've got all the benefits to show from that,

    從那裡看到,他們得到了所有優勢,

  • while Bill is leading a very different life.

    而比爾則過著非常不同的生活。

  • They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was

    實際上他們都證實了伏爾泰談到工作的好處,

  • when he talked about the benefits of work,

    他所說的都是正確,

  • and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.

    事實是工作救我們脫離不只一種而是三種大惡,

  • ["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]

    「工作使人遠離三種罪惡:無聊、惡習和匱乏。」 — 伏爾泰如是說。

  • So with these challenges, what do we do about them?

    所以我們面對這些挑戰時應做什麼呢?

  • The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,

    經濟劇本是出奇的清晰,

  • surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.

    出奇的直截了當,特別是短期內,

  • The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,

    在未來一至兩年,機械人不會拿走我們所有的職位,

  • so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:

    所以經典的經濟學 101 劇本仍可有效運用於實際情況,

  • Encourage entrepreneurship,

    鼓勵創業、

  • double down on infrastructure,

    下兩倍注在基礎設施的投資、

  • and make sure we're turning out people

    確定我們教育系統培養出來的學生

  • from our educational system with the appropriate skills.

    配搭適合的技能,

  • But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy

    但就長遠來看,即將來臨的經濟是

  • that's heavy on technology and light on labor,

    注重科技而看輕勞工,

  • and we are, then we have to consider

    我們必須考慮

  • some more radical interventions,

    一些較為激進的干預,

  • for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.

    例如:類似最低薪資保障的事物,

  • Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,

    現在也許使這房間裡的一些人感到不舒服,

  • because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing

    因為這意念與極端左翼相關聯的,

  • and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.

    也與財富重新分配的激進計劃有所關聯。

  • I did a little bit of research on this notion,

    我對這概念做了些少的研究,

  • and it might calm some folk down to know that

    也許使那些人平靜下來,

  • the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income

    最低薪資保障是受到

  • has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists

    口吐白沫的社會主義者維護支持 -

  • Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.

    弗里德里希‧海耶克、理察‧尼克森、米爾頓‧弗里德曼。

  • And if you find yourself worried

    如果你擔心

  • that something like a guaranteed income

    薪資保障類似的事物

  • is going to stifle our drive to succeed

    會扼殺我們的成功驅動力,

  • and make us kind of complacent,

    並使我們自滿,

  • you might be interested to know that social mobility,

    你或許有興趣知道,

  • one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,

    我們在美國確實感到自豪的其中一件事就是,

  • is now lower than it is in the northern European countries

    社會流動性較北歐國家來得低,

  • that have these very generous social safety