there is a favorite non–lethal tool in their bag of tricks: Economic sanctions.

他們有一個最喜歡的非致命性工具的伎倆。經濟制裁

From the U.S. embargo on Cuba to international sanctions on Iraq over its invasion of Kuwait,

從美國對古巴的禁運到對伊拉克入侵科威特的國際制裁。

the effectiveness of sanctions, as a whole, has been widely debated.

制裁的整體效力一直受到廣泛的討論。

Myanmar is the latest target of sanctions after a military coup at the start of 2021.

緬甸是2021年初軍事政變後最新的制裁對象。

So how effective are they?

那麼它們的效果如何呢？

Sanctions come in different forms depending on the desired outcomes, similar to a carrot

制裁有不同的形式，取決於期望的結果，類似於胡蘿蔔。

and stick approach used in negotiations.

談判中使用的 "棍棒 "方法。

Besides economic and trade sanctions, these measures include targeted actions such as

除經濟和貿易制裁外，這些措施還包括有針對性的行動，如： 1.

arms embargoes, travel bans, asset freezes and commodity restrictions.

武器禁運、旅行禁令、資產凍結和商品限制；

These sanctions can be imposed by a single country or multilaterally,

這些制裁可以由一個國家或以多邊方式實施。

by like-minded nations or international bodies such as the UN and the EU.

* 由想法相同的國家或國際機構（如聯合國和歐盟）提供。

To date, the UN Security Council has imposed 30 sanctions regimes, with the shortest lasting

迄今為止，聯合國安全理事會已經實施了30項制裁制度，其中持續時間最短的是

nearly a year involving an arms embargo on Eritrea and Ethiopia in 2001

2001年對厄立特里亞和衣索匹亞實施武器禁運，歷時近一年。

while the longest sanctions regime currently in force dates back to 1992 on Somalia.

而目前實行的最長的制裁制度可追溯到1992年對索馬里的制裁。

Sanctions can be wide-ranging or targeted.

制裁可以是廣泛的，也可以是有針對性的。

Wide-ranging sanctions, also known as comprehensive sanctions, ban all transactions with a specific country

廣泛的制裁，又稱全面制裁，禁止與特定國家的所有交易。

while targeted ones affect specific individuals or entities

而有針對性的則影響到具體的個人或實體

minimizing the negative effects on the general population.

最大限度地減少對公眾的負面影響；

Myanmar is no stranger to sanctions.

緬甸對制裁並不陌生。

Since 1988, broad sanctions programs were employed against the country’s military regime

自1988年以來，對該國的軍事政權實施了廣泛的制裁方案。

by the U.S., while the EU adopted an arms embargo in 1996.

由美國，而歐盟在1996年通過了武器禁運。

Straddled between India and China

橫亙在中印兩國之間

Myanmar was one of the wealthiest countries in Southeast Asia at the start of the 20th century.

20世紀初，緬甸是東南亞最富裕的國家之一。

After the military, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power in 1962

1962年被稱為緬軍的軍方奪取政權後。

Myanmar was isolated from the international community for nearly half a century.

近半個世紀以來，緬甸一直與國際社會隔絕。

Efforts to create a socialist state crippled the economy,

建立社會主義國家的努力使經濟陷入癱瘓。

and in 1987, Myanmar was included in the UN’s Least Developed Country list,

1987年，緬甸被列入聯合國最不發達國家名單。

just when the rest of Southeast Asia was experiencing strong economic growth.

就在東南亞其他地區經濟強勁增長的時候。

In the years since, the U.S., EU and other countries tried to

在此後的幾年裡，美國、歐盟等國都試圖

to force the military junta into political rapprochement

迫使軍政府在政治上和解

with the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi,

與諾貝爾和平獎得主昂山素季上司的反對派全國民主聯盟。

by tightening the sanction screws, without much success.

通過擰緊制裁螺絲，但沒有取得多大成效。

Towards the end of 2010, the junta embarked on a series of reforms,

2010年底，軍政府開始了一系列改革。

including holding the country’s first election in 20 years,

包括舉行該國20年來的第一次選舉。

which was won by a military-backed civilian party,

由軍方支持的文職黨派贏得了勝利。

and releasing Suu Kyi after seven years of house arrest.

並在軟禁七年後釋放素季。

Shortly after her release in 2011, Suu Kyi called for Western sanctions to continue,

2011年獲釋後不久，素季就呼籲西方繼續制裁。

prompting the military rulers to demand an apology.

促使軍事統治者要求道歉。

After winning a parliamentary seat in a by-election in 2012,

在2012年補選中贏得一個議會席位後。

Suu Kyi's NLD clinched a landslide victory in the 2015 general election and formed the next government.

蘇姬的民盟在2015年大選中取得壓倒性勝利，並組建了下一屆政府。

By then, the U.S. and EU had eased several of their sanctions on the country.

當時，美國和歐盟已經放鬆了對該國的多項制裁。

Even as the democratic reforms continued, tensions were building between the military

即使在民主改革繼續進行的同時，軍方之間的緊張關係也在不斷加劇。

and Suu Kyi’s government.

和素季政府。

In 2021, the military, citing voter fraud in the November 2020 elections,

2021年，軍方以2020年11月選舉中的選民舞弊為由，。

launched a coup and arrested Suu Kyi, along with senior members of her party.

發動政變，逮捕了素季及其黨的高級成員。

A one-year state of emergency was declared, with the Tatmadaw promising to hold a "free

政府宣佈了為期一年的緊急狀態，緬軍承諾將舉行一次 "自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的"。

and fair general election" thereafter.

此後，"公平的大選"。

Amid rising casualties in Myanmar as protesters clash with the military, some countries have

在緬甸抗議者與軍方發生衝突，傷亡人數不斷增加的情況下，一些國家已經。

reimposed targeted financial sanctions against leaders of the military coup,

對軍事政變領導人重新實施定向金融制裁。

their family members and business interests.

他們的家庭成員和商業利益。

The punitive measures are on top of existing sanctions on some generals over the persecution

這些懲罰措施是在現有的對一些將軍的迫害制裁基礎上採取的。

of the Rohingya Muslim minority.

穆斯林少數民族羅辛亞族人。

While some critics argue that these sanctions are largely symbolic and the Tatmadaw leaders

雖然一些批評者認為，這些制裁在很大程度上是象徵性的，而且緬軍領導人也不可能將其作為一種手段。

have been impervious to past measures, the UN rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar,

聯合國緬甸人權問題報告員說，他們對過去的措施不聞不問。

Tom Andrews, said that it's worth a shot.

湯姆-安德魯斯，說這是值得一試的。

We just have to have the political will to exercise those options

我們只需要有政治意願來行使這些選擇權。

and they’re certainly worth trying.

而他們當然值得一試。

I’m not saying they are necessarily going to be a panacea, but they’re worth trying.

我不是說它們一定會成為萬能藥，但值得一試。

The U.N. Security Council says that “sanctions do not operate, succeed or fail in a vacuum”

聯合國安全理事會說，"制裁不會在真空中運作、成功或失敗"

and that they are the most effective when applied as part of a comprehensive strategy

並在作為綜合戰略的一部分加以應用時最為有效。

encompassing “peacekeeping, peacebuilding and peacemaking.”

包括 "維持和平、建設和平和建立和平"，

Experts say that there are a few pillars of an effective sanctions policy.

專家表示，有效的制裁政策有幾個支柱。

Firstly, sanctions policies should be well-rounded with both punitive measures and incentives

第一，制裁政策要全面，既要有懲罰措施，又要有激勵措施。

to sweeten the deal, as was the case with Libya in 2003, when the country agreed to

以增加交易的甜頭，就像2003年與利比亞的交易一樣，當時該國同意了。

dismantle its weapons of mass destruction program.

拆除其大規模毀滅性武器方案。

Sanctions should also be attainable and realistic.

制裁也應該是可以實現和現實的。

For example, trying to induce regime change through sanctions would be an unrealistic goal,

例如，試圖通過制裁促使政權更迭是不現實的目標。

which was what happened with the U.S. embargo on Cuba under Fidel Castro.

這就是菲德爾-卡斯特羅上司下的美國對古巴的禁運所發生的事情。

Another key pillar is multilateral support, especially in cases where the target is economically diversified.

另一個關鍵支柱是多邊支持，特別是在目標經濟多樣化的情況下。

In March 2021, the U.S., Canada, EU and the United Kingdom coordinated to impose sanctions

2021年3月，美國、加拿大、歐盟和英國協調實施制裁

on Chinese officials for alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

指控中國官員在新疆侵犯人權。

Last but not least, sanctions must be credible and flexible for the targets to feel the pinch

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，制裁必須具有可信度和靈活性，以使制裁對象感受到壓力。

while recognizing the benefits of good behavior.

同時認識到良好行為的好處。

Increasingly, policymakers are recognizing the unintended consequences of wide-ranging

決策者越來越多地認識到，廣泛開展的活動會帶來意想不到的後果。

sanctions and are opting for targeted measures instead.

制裁，並選擇採取有針對性的措施。

According to the UN, the U.S.’s embargo on Cuba has cost the country $130 billion

據聯合國統計，美國對古巴的封鎖使古巴損失了1300億美元。

over nearly six decades.

近六十年來，。

After the U.S. imposed comprehensive trade sanctions on Myanmar in 2003,

2003年美國對緬甸實施全面貿易制裁後。

a report released by the U.S. State Department a year later

美國國務院一年後發佈的一份報告顯示

noted that at least 50,000 jobs in the garment industry were lost.

指出，服裝業至少失去了5萬個工作崗位。

In 1995, the UN Security Council recognized that its wide-ranging sanctions created

1995年，聯合國安全理事會認識到，其廣泛的制裁造成了

“adverse side-effects of sanctions on the most vulnerable segments of targeted countries.”

"制裁對目標國家最脆弱群體的不利副作用"。

Since 2004, all sanctions by the UN security council have been targeted at specific individuals

自2004年以來，聯合國安全理事會的所有制裁都是針對特定個人的。

or businesses affiliated to or operating in a target country.

或與目標國有聯繫或在目標國經營的企業；

Before the coup, the World Bank projected that the poverty rate in Myanmar could increase

在政變前，世界銀行預計緬甸的貧困率可能會增加。

from 22.4% to 27% because of the pandemic.

由於大流行，從22.4%上升到27%。

Any comprehensive sanctions of the past will likely strain a population already battling

過去的任何全面制裁都有可能使已經在與之作鬥爭的民眾感到壓力。

the economic fallout of Covid-19.

Covid-19的經濟後果；

While the sanctions imposed by the West so far have been targeted, entities with links

雖然迄今為止西方國家實施的制裁是針對的，但與西方國家有聯繫的實體卻沒有受到制裁。

to the Tatmadaw are active in many parts of Myanmar’s economy,

緬軍在緬甸經濟的許多領域都很活躍。

which will have a spillover effect on the general population.

這將對普通民眾產生溢出效應。

The inaction by Myanmar’s neighbors also blunts the impact of any sanctions.

緬甸鄰國的不作為也削弱了任何制裁的影響。

As Western businesses withdraw from the country, the void would be filled by regional backers

隨著西方企業從國內撤出，空缺將由區域性的支持者來填補。

such as Thailand and China.

如泰國和中國。

There are also fears that sanctions could push Myanmar closer to China —

還有人擔心，制裁可能會使緬甸更接近中國------。

a situation that does not play well for other regional powers such as India and Japan.

對印度和日本等其他地區大國來說，這種情況並不樂觀。

If history is any indication, it is unlikely that the generals will buckle under the threat

如果歷史有任何跡象表明，將軍們不可能在威脅下屈服。

of sanctions, even though the measures this time are more surgical than the previous ones.

制裁的措施，儘管這次的措施比以前的措施更具有策略性。

However, after emerging from half a century of isolation in 2011,

然而，在2011年擺脫了半個世紀的孤立狀態後。

Myanmar today is different after a decade of change.

經過十年的變化，今天的緬甸已經不同了。

Despite promises by the military junta that it will hold a "free and fair general election"

儘管軍政府承諾將舉行 "自由和公正的大選"

once the year-long state of emergency ends,

一旦為期一年的緊急狀態結束。

it is likely that opposition will continue to mount, not just internationally, but domestically too.

不僅在國際上，而且在國內，反對的聲音可能會繼續增加。