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  • When policymakers want to respond to foreign challenges or influence a desired outcome,

    當決策者想要應對外國挑戰或影響預期結果時。

  • there is a favorite nonlethal tool in their bag of tricks: Economic sanctions.

    他們有一個最喜歡的非致命性工具的伎倆。經濟制裁

  • From the U.S. embargo on Cuba to international sanctions on Iraq over its invasion of Kuwait,

    從美國對古巴的禁運到對伊拉克入侵科威特的國際制裁。

  • the effectiveness of sanctions, as a whole, has been widely debated.

    制裁的整體效力一直受到廣泛的討論。

  • Myanmar is the latest target of sanctions after a military coup at the start of 2021.

    緬甸是2021年初軍事政變後最新的制裁對象。

  • So how effective are they?

    那麼它們的效果如何呢?

  • Sanctions come in different forms depending on the desired outcomes, similar to a carrot

    制裁有不同的形式,取決於期望的結果,類似於胡蘿蔔。

  • and stick approach used in negotiations.

    談判中使用的 "棍棒 "方法。

  • Besides economic and trade sanctions, these measures include targeted actions such as

    除經濟和貿易制裁外,這些措施還包括有針對性的行動,如: 1.

  • arms embargoes, travel bans, asset freezes and commodity restrictions.

    武器禁運、旅行禁令、資產凍結和商品限制;

  • These sanctions can be imposed by a single country or multilaterally,

    這些制裁可以由一個國家或以多邊方式實施。

  • by like-minded nations or international bodies such as the UN and the EU.

    * 由想法相同的國家或國際機構(如聯合國和歐盟)提供。

  • To date, the UN Security Council has imposed 30 sanctions regimes, with the shortest lasting

    迄今為止,聯合國安全理事會已經實施了30項制裁制度,其中持續時間最短的是

  • nearly a year involving an arms embargo on Eritrea and Ethiopia in 2001

    2001年對厄立特里亞和衣索匹亞實施武器禁運,歷時近一年。

  • while the longest sanctions regime currently in force dates back to 1992 on Somalia.

    而目前實行的最長的制裁制度可追溯到1992年對索馬里的制裁。

  • Sanctions can be wide-ranging or targeted.

    制裁可以是廣泛的,也可以是有針對性的。

  • Wide-ranging sanctions, also known as comprehensive sanctions, ban all transactions with a specific country

    廣泛的制裁,又稱全面制裁,禁止與特定國家的所有交易。

  • while targeted ones affect specific individuals or entities

    而有針對性的則影響到具體的個人或實體

  • minimizing the negative effects on the general population.

    最大限度地減少對公眾的負面影響;

  • Myanmar is no stranger to sanctions.

    緬甸對制裁並不陌生。

  • Since 1988, broad sanctions programs were employed against the country’s military regime

    自1988年以來,對該國的軍事政權實施了廣泛的制裁方案。

  • by the U.S., while the EU adopted an arms embargo in 1996.

    由美國,而歐盟在1996年通過了武器禁運。

  • Straddled between India and China

    橫亙在中印兩國之間

  • Myanmar was one of the wealthiest countries in Southeast Asia at the start of the 20th century.

    20世紀初,緬甸是東南亞最富裕的國家之一。

  • After the military, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power in 1962

    1962年被稱為緬軍的軍方奪取政權後。

  • Myanmar was isolated from the international community for nearly half a century.

    近半個世紀以來,緬甸一直與國際社會隔絕。

  • Efforts to create a socialist state crippled the economy,

    建立社會主義國家的努力使經濟陷入癱瘓。

  • and in 1987, Myanmar was included in the UN’s Least Developed Country list,

    1987年,緬甸被列入聯合國最不發達國家名單。

  • just when the rest of Southeast Asia was experiencing strong economic growth.

    就在東南亞其他地區經濟強勁增長的時候。

  • In the years since, the U.S., EU and other countries tried to

    在此後的幾年裡,美國、歐盟等國都試圖

  • to force the military junta into political rapprochement

    迫使軍政府在政治上和解

  • with the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi,

    與諾貝爾和平獎得主昂山素季上司的反對派全國民主聯盟。

  • by tightening the sanction screws, without much success.

    通過擰緊制裁螺絲,但沒有取得多大成效。

  • Towards the end of 2010, the junta embarked on a series of reforms,

    2010年底,軍政府開始了一系列改革。

  • including holding the country’s first election in 20 years,

    包括舉行該國20年來的第一次選舉。

  • which was won by a military-backed civilian party,

    由軍方支持的文職黨派贏得了勝利。

  • and releasing Suu Kyi after seven years of house arrest.

    並在軟禁七年後釋放素季。

  • Shortly after her release in 2011, Suu Kyi called for Western sanctions to continue,

    2011年獲釋後不久,素季就呼籲西方繼續制裁。

  • prompting the military rulers to demand an apology.

    促使軍事統治者要求道歉。

  • After winning a parliamentary seat in a by-election in 2012,

    在2012年補選中贏得一個議會席位後。

  • Suu Kyi's NLD clinched a landslide victory in the 2015 general election and formed the next government.

    蘇姬的民盟在2015年大選中取得壓倒性勝利,並組建了下一屆政府。

  • By then, the U.S. and EU had eased several of their sanctions on the country.

    當時,美國和歐盟已經放鬆了對該國的多項制裁。

  • Even as the democratic reforms continued, tensions were building between the military

    即使在民主改革繼續進行的同時,軍方之間的緊張關係也在不斷加劇。

  • and Suu Kyi’s government.

    和素季政府。

  • In 2021, the military, citing voter fraud in the November 2020 elections,

    2021年,軍方以2020年11月選舉中的選民舞弊為由,。

  • launched a coup and arrested Suu Kyi, along with senior members of her party.

    發動政變,逮捕了素季及其黨的高級成員。

  • A one-year state of emergency was declared, with the Tatmadaw promising to hold a "free

    政府宣佈了為期一年的緊急狀態,緬軍承諾將舉行一次 "自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的、自由的"。

  • and fair general election" thereafter.

    此後,"公平的大選"。

  • Amid rising casualties in Myanmar as protesters clash with the military, some countries have

    在緬甸抗議者與軍方發生衝突,傷亡人數不斷增加的情況下,一些國家已經。

  • reimposed targeted financial sanctions against leaders of the military coup,

    對軍事政變領導人重新實施定向金融制裁。

  • their family members and business interests.

    他們的家庭成員和商業利益。

  • The punitive measures are on top of existing sanctions on some generals over the persecution

    這些懲罰措施是在現有的對一些將軍的迫害制裁基礎上採取的。

  • of the Rohingya Muslim minority.

    穆斯林少數民族羅辛亞族人。

  • While some critics argue that these sanctions are largely symbolic and the Tatmadaw leaders

    雖然一些批評者認為,這些制裁在很大程度上是象徵性的,而且緬軍領導人也不可能將其作為一種手段。

  • have been impervious to past measures, the UN rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar,

    聯合國緬甸人權問題報告員說,他們對過去的措施不聞不問。

  • Tom Andrews, said that it's worth a shot.

    湯姆-安德魯斯,說這是值得一試的。

  • We just have to have the political will to exercise those options

    我們只需要有政治意願來行使這些選擇權。

  • and theyre certainly worth trying.

    而他們當然值得一試。

  • I’m not saying they are necessarily going to be a panacea, but theyre worth trying.

    我不是說它們一定會成為萬能藥,但值得一試。

  • The U.N. Security Council says thatsanctions do not operate, succeed or fail in a vacuum

    聯合國安全理事會說,"制裁不會在真空中運作、成功或失敗"

  • and that they are the most effective when applied as part of a comprehensive strategy

    並在作為綜合戰略的一部分加以應用時最為有效。

  • encompassingpeacekeeping, peacebuilding and peacemaking.”

    包括 "維持和平、建設和平和建立和平",

  • Experts say that there are a few pillars of an effective sanctions policy.

    專家表示,有效的制裁政策有幾個支柱。

  • Firstly, sanctions policies should be well-rounded with both punitive measures and incentives

    第一,制裁政策要全面,既要有懲罰措施,又要有激勵措施。

  • to sweeten the deal, as was the case with Libya in 2003, when the country agreed to

    以增加交易的甜頭,就像2003年與利比亞的交易一樣,當時該國同意了。

  • dismantle its weapons of mass destruction program.

    拆除其大規模毀滅性武器方案。

  • Sanctions should also be attainable and realistic.

    制裁也應該是可以實現和現實的。

  • For example, trying to induce regime change through sanctions would be an unrealistic goal,

    例如,試圖通過制裁促使政權更迭是不現實的目標。

  • which was what happened with the U.S. embargo on Cuba under Fidel Castro.

    這就是菲德爾-卡斯特羅上司下的美國對古巴的禁運所發生的事情。

  • Another key pillar is multilateral support, especially in cases where the target is economically diversified.

    另一個關鍵支柱是多邊支持,特別是在目標經濟多樣化的情況下。

  • In March 2021, the U.S., Canada, EU and the United Kingdom coordinated to impose sanctions

    2021年3月,美國、加拿大、歐盟和英國協調實施制裁

  • on Chinese officials for alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

    指控中國官員在新疆侵犯人權。

  • Last but not least, sanctions must be credible and flexible for the targets to feel the pinch

    最後但並非最不重要的一點是,制裁必須具有可信度和靈活性,以使制裁對象感受到壓力。

  • while recognizing the benefits of good behavior.

    同時認識到良好行為的好處。

  • Increasingly, policymakers are recognizing the unintended consequences of wide-ranging

    決策者越來越多地認識到,廣泛開展的活動會帶來意想不到的後果。

  • sanctions and are opting for targeted measures instead.

    制裁,並選擇採取有針對性的措施。

  • According to the UN, the U.S.’s embargo on Cuba has cost the country $130 billion

    據聯合國統計,美國對古巴的封鎖使古巴損失了1300億美元。

  • over nearly six decades.

    近六十年來,。

  • After the U.S. imposed comprehensive trade sanctions on Myanmar in 2003,

    2003年美國對緬甸實施全面貿易制裁後。

  • a report released by the U.S. State Department a year later

    美國國務院一年後發佈的一份報告顯示

  • noted that at least 50,000 jobs in the garment industry were lost.

    指出,服裝業至少失去了5萬個工作崗位。

  • In 1995, the UN Security Council recognized that its wide-ranging sanctions created

    1995年,聯合國安全理事會認識到,其廣泛的制裁造成了

  • adverse side-effects of sanctions on the most vulnerable segments of targeted countries.”

    "制裁對目標國家最脆弱群體的不利副作用"。

  • Since 2004, all sanctions by the UN security council have been targeted at specific individuals

    自2004年以來,聯合國安全理事會的所有制裁都是針對特定個人的。

  • or businesses affiliated to or operating in a target country.

    或與目標國有聯繫或在目標國經營的企業;

  • Before the coup, the World Bank projected that the poverty rate in Myanmar could increase

    在政變前,世界銀行預計緬甸的貧困率可能會增加。

  • from 22.4% to 27% because of the pandemic.

    由於大流行,從22.4%上升到27%。

  • Any comprehensive sanctions of the past will likely strain a population already battling

    過去的任何全面制裁都有可能使已經在與之作鬥爭的民眾感到壓力。

  • the economic fallout of Covid-19.

    Covid-19的經濟後果;

  • While the sanctions imposed by the West so far have been targeted, entities with links

    雖然迄今為止西方國家實施的制裁是針對的,但與西方國家有聯繫的實體卻沒有受到制裁。

  • to the Tatmadaw are active in many parts of Myanmar’s economy,

    緬軍在緬甸經濟的許多領域都很活躍。

  • which will have a spillover effect on the general population.

    這將對普通民眾產生溢出效應。

  • The inaction by Myanmar’s neighbors also blunts the impact of any sanctions.

    緬甸鄰國的不作為也削弱了任何制裁的影響。

  • As Western businesses withdraw from the country, the void would be filled by regional backers

    隨著西方企業從國內撤出,空缺將由區域性的支持者來填補。

  • such as Thailand and China.

    如泰國和中國。

  • There are also fears that sanctions could push Myanmar closer to China

    還有人擔心,制裁可能會使緬甸更接近中國------。

  • a situation that does not play well for other regional powers such as India and Japan.

    對印度和日本等其他地區大國來說,這種情況並不樂觀。

  • If history is any indication, it is unlikely that the generals will buckle under the threat

    如果歷史有任何跡象表明,將軍們不可能在威脅下屈服。

  • of sanctions, even though the measures this time are more surgical than the previous ones.

    制裁的措施,儘管這次的措施比以前的措施更具有策略性。

  • However, after emerging from half a century of isolation in 2011,

    然而,在2011年擺脫了半個世紀的孤立狀態後。

  • Myanmar today is different after a decade of change.

    經過十年的變化,今天的緬甸已經不同了。

  • Despite promises by the military junta that it will hold a "free and fair general election"

    儘管軍政府承諾將舉行 "自由和公正的大選"

  • once the year-long state of emergency ends,

    一旦為期一年的緊急狀態結束。

  • it is likely that opposition will continue to mount, not just internationally, but domestically too.

    不僅在國際上,而且在國內,反對的聲音可能會繼續增加。

When policymakers want to respond to foreign challenges or influence a desired outcome,

當決策者想要應對外國挑戰或影響預期結果時。

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經濟制裁有用嗎?| 馮小剛:"我想說的是 (Do economic sanctions work? | CNBC Explains)

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