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  • Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Camille Martínez

    謄寫者: Leslie GauthierLeslie Gauthier 審稿人: Camille MartínezCamille Martínez

  • If you're in charge of a major metropolitan city,

    如果你是一個大都市的負責人。

  • it's almost a must these days to be sustainable.

    這年頭,要想持續發展,幾乎是必須的。

  • Us city dwellers pride ourselves

    我們城市人的驕傲

  • on living in places that are taking action on climate change

    採取行動應對氣候變化的地方的生活方式的報告

  • and achieving net zero.

    並實現淨值為零。

  • But what if you're Don Iveson?

    但是,如果你是唐-艾維森呢?

  • You're the mayor of oil and gas town Edmonton, in northern Alberta, Canada.

    你是加拿大阿爾伯塔省北部石油和天然氣小鎮埃德蒙頓的市長。

  • Or across the Atlantic,

    或橫跨大西洋。

  • Holly Mumby-Croft,

    Holly Mumby -Croft,

  • UK member of parliament for Scunthorpe,

    英國斯肯索普市議員。

  • home to one of the last steel plants of Britain.

    英國最後一家鋼鐵廠的所在地。

  • Or much smaller,

    或者小得多。

  • you're Dave Smiglewski.

    你是Dave Smiglewski.

  • You're the mayor of the little city of Granite Falls, Minnesota,

    你是明尼蘇達州小城Granite Falls的市長。

  • with a large-scale ethanol production facility nearby.

    附近有一個大型的乙醇生產設施。

  • All these places,

    所有這些地方。

  • no matter how far apart and how different in size,

    無論相隔多遠,大小如何不同。

  • have something big in common:

    有一些大的共同點。

  • millions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions

    數百萬噸溫室氣體排放

  • linked to significant local employment.

    與當地大量就業有關。

  • And we're going to have to find a way

    我們必須找到一個方法

  • to maintain the critical economic and social functions of these towns

    以維持這些城鎮的重要經濟和社會功能。

  • if we're to have any hope of combating climate change.

    如果我們要有任何應對氣候變化的希望。

  • Not an easy feat,

    這可不是一件容易的事。

  • if you think that we can't really put a solar panel on a gas processing facility

    如果你認為我們真的不能把太陽能電池板安裝在氣體處理設施上的話

  • or a steel mill.

    或鋼廠。

  • Fortunately, these places have another interesting thing in common,

    幸運的是,這些地方還有一個有趣的共同點。

  • which might offer some hope to these local officials.

    這或許能給這些地方官員帶來一些希望。

  • The main sources of pollution in their areas

    其所在地區的主要汙染源

  • are in close proximity to rock formations

    靠近岩層。

  • with the ability to trap carbon dioxide,

    具有捕集二氧化碳的能力。

  • the greenhouse gas we often call CO2.

    也就是我們常說的二氧化碳這種溫室氣體。

  • And this puts into reach a potential solution to both their problems:

    而這就把解決他們兩個問題的潛在辦法放到了眼前。

  • pollution and employment.

    汙染和就業;

  • It's called "carbon capture and storage."

    這就是所謂的 "碳捕捉和儲存"。

  • It's the process whereby we capture the CO2,

    這就是我們捕捉二氧化碳的過程。

  • which results from burning fossil fuels,

    燃燒化石燃料造成的。

  • before it's emitted into the atmosphere

    排放到大氣中之前。

  • and instead bury it underground.

    而將其埋在地下。

  • Effectively, we take part of what we've extracted from the earth --

    實際上,我們從地球上提取了一部分東西 --

  • the carbon --

    碳 --

  • back to where it came from.

    回到它來的地方。

  • Now, this is not a new idea.

    現在,這不是一個新的想法。

  • People have been experimenting with this technology for decades.

    幾十年來,人們一直在試驗這項技術。

  • Today, however, there are very few operational carbon capture facilities

    然而,今天,運行中的碳捕集設施非常少。

  • in the world,

    在世界上。

  • capturing about 14 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year.

    每年捕獲約1400萬噸二氧化碳當量。

  • And while that may sound like a big number,

    雖然這聽起來是個大數字。

  • it's less than .1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

    它不到全球溫室氣體排放的0.1%。

  • The International Energy Agency predicts

    國際能源機構預測

  • that we need to capture between four and seven gigatons --

    我們需要捕獲4至7千兆噸的...

  • that's four to seven billion metric tons --

    那是四到七十億公噸 --

  • of CO2 per year by 2040

    到2040年每年二氧化碳排放量

  • to stay at or below two degrees Celsius warming.

    以保持在或低於兩攝氏度的升溫。

  • And that's a more than 100 to 200 times increase

    而這是一個超過100到200倍的增長。

  • in today's carbon capture capacity.

    在今天的碳捕捉能力中。

  • To get us there will definitely require a price on greenhouse gas pollution.

    要想達到我們的目的,肯定需要對溫室氣體汙染進行定價。

  • There is a cost, and it needs to be settled.

    有成本,需要解決。

  • And if we're not smart about it,

    而如果我們不聰明的話。

  • the price could be very high.

    價格可能很高。

  • Should we then solely rely on the future improvements

    那麼,我們是否應該僅僅依靠未來的改進

  • in the fundamental technology?

    在基礎技術方面?

  • No.

    不知道

  • There is another way.

    還有另一種方法。

  • And it's the need for well-thought-through rollouts

    而這是需要經過深思熟慮的推出的

  • of what might be called CO2 networks.

    可稱為二氧化碳網絡的。

  • In BCG, I lead a team of consultants,

    在BCG,我上司著一個顧問團隊。

  • analysts and data scientists

    分析師和數據科學家

  • whose focus is on advancing carbon capture utilization and storage.

    其重點是推進碳捕集利用和儲存。

  • By our estimates,

    根據我們的估計。

  • if we want to hit the IEA forecast,

    如果我們想達到IEA的預測。

  • we need at least 110 billion dollars per year for the next 20 years

    未來20年,我們每年至少需要1100億資金

  • to build out the required carbon capture and storage infrastructure.

    建立必要的碳捕獲和儲存基礎設施;

  • And there's only one way to bring down this essential but hefty price tag,

    而要想把這個必不可少但價格高昂的產品降下來,只有一個辦法。

  • which is to share the cost through networks.

    也就是通過網絡分擔成本。

  • Consider it the waste disposal service for CO2.

    認為它是二氧化碳的廢物處理服務。

  • Our research suggests that policymakers and companies can learn a lot

    我們的研究表明,政策制定者和公司可以從中學到很多東西。

  • by looking at a map --

    通過看地圖 --

  • lots of maps, actually,

    很多地圖,其實。

  • both the ones that you and I look at on our smartphones

    都是你我在智能手機上看的東西

  • as well as the less common ones

    以及不常見的

  • that show what lies below the surface in terms of depleted oil and gas fields

    顯示地表以下的枯竭油氣田的情況。

  • and saline aquifers with the ability to trap CO2 underground.

    和含鹽含水層,能夠將二氧化碳截留在地下。

  • And by looking at these maps,

    而通過看這些地圖。

  • we can look for the optimal distances between both the sources of emissions,

    我們可以尋找兩個排放源之間的最佳距離。

  • like Scunthorpe's steel plant,

    如斯肯索普的鋼鐵廠。

  • and the sinks, like the saline aquifers of Alberta.

    和匯,如阿爾伯塔省的鹽水含水層。

  • We had a first go,

    我們有一個第一次去。

  • and it yields interesting results.

    併產生了有趣的結果。

  • By building up a detailed database of emitters

    通過建立一個詳細的排放者數據庫。

  • as well as potential sinks,

    以及潛在的匯。

  • we found up to 200 clusters

    我們發現多達200個集群

  • that have the ability to be scaled up to low-cost carbon networks.

    有能力擴大到低成本的碳網絡。

  • And they can capture more than one gigaton of emissions,

    而且它們可以捕獲超過一吉噸的排放量。

  • a big step to the four to seven gigatons that we need.

    向我們所需的四到七千兆噸邁出了一大步。

  • And when we dig a little deeper,

    而當我們再深挖一下。

  • we find that optimization of distances between sinks and sources matters.

    我們發現,優化匯和源之間的距離很重要。

  • It matters a lot in terms of the cost.

    從成本上看,這很重要。

  • Network effects,

    網絡效應。

  • which is the mechanism whereby the benefits of a system to a user

    這是一個系統給用戶帶來好處的機制。

  • increases with the amount of others' use of it,

    隨著他人使用量的增加。

  • can reduce the capture and storage cost of many emitters by up a third,

    可以將許多排放者的捕獲和儲存成本降低三分之一。

  • to below 100 dollars per ton of CO2 captured,

    每噸二氧化碳捕獲量低於100美元;

  • based on current costs of technology.

    基於當前的技術成本。

  • And while that is still a substantial cost,

    雖然這還是一筆不小的費用。

  • it starts to get in the range of carbon taxes and market mechanisms

    它開始進入碳稅和市場機制的範圍。

  • that governments of Western economies are starting to think about

    西方經濟國家的政府開始思考

  • or have already put in place.

    或已經實施的。

  • And we would not be able to achieve it

    我們就無法實現它

  • without collaboration and sharing of infrastructure

    沒有基礎設施的協作和共享

  • between neighboring emitters.

    鄰近發射器之間。

  • Let us walk through some of the cities I mentioned.

    讓我們走過我提到的一些城市。

  • In assessing areas to build CO2 networks,

    在評估建立二氧化碳網絡的領域時:

  • we look for three different things.

    我們要尋找三種不同的東西。

  • Firstly, proximity to storage.

    第一,就近存儲。

  • Secondly, a cluster of at least a few sources

    第二,至少有幾個來源的群組。

  • with high amounts of CO2 in their flue gas;

    其煙氣中含有大量的二氧化碳。

  • the more CO2 in the exhaust,

    排氣中的二氧化碳越多。

  • the cheaper it is to capture.

    捕捉的成本越低。

  • And thirdly, an ability to scale up the network and lower the cost quickly

    第三,能夠快速擴大網絡規模,降低成本。

  • with few emitters.

    發射器少的情況下。

  • Edmonton and its surrounding areas provide a good example

    埃德蒙頓及其周邊地區就是一個很好的例子。

  • of this idea at work.

    這種想法的工作。

  • Suitable underground rock layers that can trap CO2 are abundant,

    能截留二氧化碳的合適的地下岩層很多。

  • well exceeding what is needed,

    遠遠超過了需要。

  • and it also meets the second and third criteria

    而且它還符合第二和第三項標準

  • in that it has a good combination

    因為它有一個很好的組合

  • of both high- and low- concentration CO2 streams

    高濃度和低濃度的二氧化碳流

  • associated with different industrial processes.

    與不同的工業過程相關聯。

  • And it can scale up to low cost quickly.

    而且可以迅速擴大到低成本。

  • In one of the clusters,

    在其中一個群組中。

  • we find the number of emitters with very low capture and storage cost

    我們發現捕獲和存儲成本非常低的發射器的數量。

  • in the range of 40 to 50 dollars per ton,

    在每噸40至50美元之間。

  • but they only represent 1.2 megatons per year.

    但它們每年只佔1.2兆噸。

  • The total cluster, however, can scale up to 12 megatons --

    然而,總集群的規模可以達到12兆噸 -- -- 即:

  • up to 10 times its original size.

    最多可以達到原尺寸的10倍。

  • But those first megatons of emissions played a crucial role

    但這些最初的百萬噸排放量起到了至關重要的作用。

  • in scaling up the network

    在擴大網絡的同時

  • and reducing the cost and risk for others down the line.

    併為他人降低了日後的成本和風險。

  • That's your network effect in action.

    這就是你的網絡效應的作用。

  • And it's not just Edmonton.

    不僅僅是埃德蒙頓。

  • If we take Scunthorpe in Lincolnshire in the UK,

    如果我們以英國林肯郡的斯肯索普為例。

  • we see similar dynamics and potential.

    我們看到了類似的動力和潛力。

  • The North Sea offers sufficient storage,

    北海提供了足夠的存儲空間。

  • and while storing CO2 offshore is more expensive than onshore,

    而海上儲存二氧化碳比陸上儲存更貴。

  • there's the potential to reduce this cost

    有可能降低這一成本

  • by reusing and repurposing existing oil and gas infrastructure.

    通過對現有石油和天然氣基礎設施的再利用和重新使用,來實現這一目標;

  • If the steel mill standalone would have to capture and store its CO2,

    如果鋼廠獨立就必須捕捉和儲存其二氧化碳。

  • it would prove very costly.

    這將證明是非常昂貴的。

  • But it can reduce this cost by sharing the infrastructure

    但它可以通過共享基礎設施來降低這一成本。

  • with refining and chemical emitters en route to the North Sea.

    與煉油和化學排放者在前往北海的途中。

  • Many of them have cheaper capture cost

    其中很多人的採集成本更低

  • with the ability to improve the overall economics

    具備提高整體經濟效益的能力

  • and kick-start a network that has the ability to scale up to 28 megatons.

    並啟動了一個具有28兆規模的網絡。

  • Two examples in two different countries with 14 megatons of potential --

    在兩個不同國家的兩個例子,其潛力為14兆噸 -- -- 這兩個例子是:

  • already double versus what we have today.

    與今天的情況相比,已經翻了一番。

  • And this network effect applies anywhere

    而這種網絡效應適用於任何地方

  • and is actually not uncommon

    並不稀奇

  • when it comes to building out infrastructure.

    在建設出基礎設施的時候,。

  • In fact, CO2 networks could very much follow the principles of the past

    事實上,二氧化碳網絡可以很好地遵循過去的原則。

  • in terms of how our energy and utility infrastructure was developed around us,

    從我們的能源和公用事業基礎設施如何在我們身邊發展來看。

  • whether it's water, gas, electricity, local supply chains --

    不管是水、氣、電、在地供應鏈...

  • all these networks apply local economies of scale

    所有這些網絡都採用當地規模經濟

  • and were built up over time with favorable, marginal cost

    並隨著時間的推移,以有利的、邊際成本的方式建立起來。

  • of adding new connections.

    增加新連接的。

  • The big difference here is we're reversing the flow.

    這裡最大的區別是我們要逆向流動。

  • And these networks have the potential to enable future innovation

    而這些網絡有可能促成未來的創新。

  • of using CO2 in chemical processes to make, for example, building materials

    在化學過程中使用二氧化碳製造建築材料等的問題

  • instead of burying the CO2 underground.

    而不是把二氧化碳埋在地下。

  • Our analysis is a pure economic one.

    我們的分析是純經濟分析。

  • It does not account for political and local geographical barriers,

    它沒有考慮到政治和地方地理障礙。

  • but creating a favorable regulatory environment

    但創造一個良好的監管環境

  • and removing these barriers will be critical.

    和消除這些障礙將是至關重要的。

  • Take these two neighboring states in the US, for example:

    以美國這兩個相鄰的州為例。

  • North Dakota,

    北達科他州。

  • with ample, cheap storage and existing CO2 pipelines,

    有充足、廉價的儲存和現有的二氧化碳管道;

  • and the state has put in place tax incentives

    而且國家已經出臺了稅收優惠政策

  • and financial assistance to use it.

    併為其使用提供財政援助。

  • Go next door to Minnesota:

    去明尼蘇達州的隔壁。

  • no storage within several hundred miles,

    幾百裡內沒有倉庫。

  • but home to 18 large-scale ethanol production facilities,

    但擁有18個大型乙醇生產設施。

  • including the one in Granite Falls,

    包括在Granite Falls的那個。

  • all of which create a highly concentrated stream of CO2 emissions.

    所有這些都形成了高度集中的二氧化碳排放流。

  • Can the blue and the red state work together to add 40 megatons

    藍州和紅州能否攜手增加40兆噸

  • to our carbon capture tally?

    我們的碳捕集統計?

  • We have no more than 20 years to bend the curve

    我們沒有超過20年的時間來彎曲曲線

  • and combat climate change --

    應對氣候變化

  • potentially less.

    可能更少。

  • The gas networks in my two home countries of the Netherlands and the UK

    我的兩個祖國荷蘭和英國的天然氣網絡。

  • were built in similar time frames after the Second World War --

    在第二次世界大戰後,在類似的時間框架內建造了------。

  • massive undertakings in infrastructure buildup

    大興土木

  • and at a time of similar high national debt.

    而在國債同樣高企的時候。

  • It's time to build another network,

    是時候再建一個網絡了。

  • one for CO2.

    CO2的一個;

  • It does not need to last forever.

    它不需要永遠持續下去。

  • It can be there just for the transition away from fossil fuels.

    它可以在那裡只是為了擺脫化石燃料的過渡。

  • But we need it now to preserve local manufacturing jobs

    但我們現在需要它來保護在地製造業的工作崗位

  • and our communities

    和我們的社區

  • and provide a hope for a better and more sustainable future.

    併為更美好、更可持續的未來帶來希望。

  • It is critical that governments,

    政府必須:

  • both local and national,

    地方和國家;

  • as well as companies,

    以及公司。

  • assess the potential for carbon capture at a local level,

    評估地方一級的碳捕獲潛力;

  • start to capture the cheapest sources of CO2

    開始捕捉最廉價的二氧化碳源

  • and build up the network from there.

    並從中建立起網絡。

  • Only in that way can local communities

    只有這樣,當地社區才能

  • like the ones in Edmonton, Granite Falls, Scunthorpe and beyond

    就像在埃德蒙頓、格蘭尼特瀑布、斯肯索普等地一樣。

  • thrive both economically and sustainably.

    在經濟上和可持續地發展。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你了

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Camille Martínez

謄寫者: Leslie GauthierLeslie Gauthier 審稿人: Camille MartínezCamille Martínez

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B1 中級 中文 TED 二氧化碳 網絡 成本 設施 儲存

碳捕集網絡如何幫助遏制氣候變化 - Bas Sudmeijer (How carbon capture networks could help curb climate change | Bas Sudmeijer)

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