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  • When we think of looking for extra-terrestrial life, we tend to focus onearth-like

    當我們想到要尋找地外生命時,我們傾向於關注 "類地球"。

  • planets, that is, planets with conditions that are similar to our own. “Life exists

    也就是與我們自身條件相似的行星。"生命的存在

  • on earth,” the logic goes, “so earth-like conditions are probably a good bet to find

    在地球上,"邏輯上說,"所以類似地球的條件可能是一個很好的賭注,以找到

  • more life.”

    更有生命力。"

  • And yet.

    然而。

  • There are hundreds of billions of galaxies in the observable universe, each with billions

    在可觀測的宇宙中,有上千億個星系,每個星系都有幾十億個。

  • if not trillions of stars, and most stars have planets orbiting them. That's roughly

    如果不是數萬億顆恆星,大多數恆星都有行星圍繞它們運行。那大概是

  • a million billion billion planets. The enormity of this number means it's probably safe

    一百萬億顆行星這個數字的艱鉅性意味著它可能是安全的。

  • to assume that there are many many *many* other planets with life - even intelligent

    假設有很多很多其他星球有生命 甚至有智慧的生命

  • life.

    生命。

  • And this, together with some basic physics and fancy statistics, implies it's more

    而這,加上一些基本的物理學和花哨的統計學,意味著它更多的是

  • likely that species of intelligent extraterrestrials will live on habitable planets unlike earth

    智慧外星物種有可能生活在與地球不同的宜居星球上。

  • and will be unlike humans. More precisely, they'll be bigger than us and live in smaller

    並將與人類不同。更準確地說,他們會比我們大,但生活在更小的地方

  • groups on smaller planets.

    群體在較小的行星上。

  • Now, I know it sounds crazy that with only one data pointus – we can make any

    現在,我知道這聽起來很瘋狂,只有一個數據點--我們--我們可以做出任何

  • predictions at all about aliens we don't even know exist. But we can – here's

    對我們根本不知道存在的外星人進行預測。但我們可以--這裡是

  • how:

    如何。

  • A basic result in statistics is that there's a big difference between the properties of

    統計學的一個基本結果是,以下屬性之間有很大的區別。

  • a typical *individual* and the properties of an individual in a typical *group*. The

    一個典型的*個人*和一個典型的*群體中個人的屬性。該

  • majority of humans, for example, live in countries with a population of at least 180 million

    例如,大多數人類生活在至少有1.8億人口的國家中。

  • people. But the majority of countries have populations of less than 6 million.

    人,但大多數國家的人口不到600萬。但大多數國家的人口不到600萬。

  • And the majority of *religious* humans are members of religions with more than a billion

    而大多數*宗教的人類,都是宗教的成員,有十幾億人。

  • followers, while the majority of *religions* have fewer than a million followers.

    追隨者,而大多數*宗教的追隨者不到百萬。

  • And the majority of people who follow the English Premier league are fans of teams with

    而關注英超聯賽的人,大部分都是有球隊的球迷。

  • hundreds of millions of fans like Manchester United, while most *teams* have just a few

    像曼聯那樣擁有數億球迷,而大多數*隊只有幾個

  • million fans each.

    萬粉絲,每。

  • It doesn't matter how many individuals you have, or how you make the groups – they

    不管你有多少個人,也不管你如何組成小組--它們

  • can be religions, or fans of sports teams, or the ingredients of this trail mix. It is

    可以是宗教,也可以是運動隊的粉絲,也可以是這個小道組合的成分。它是

  • a mathematical fact that the group that the median individual belongs to will be at least

    一個數學事實,即中位數個體所屬的群體將至少是一個。

  • as big/bigger than the median group. Or, simply put, any time groups are not all the same

    作為比中位數組大/大。或者簡單的說,任何時間組別都不盡相同。

  • size, most individuals will be members of groups that are bigger than most of the other

    規模,大多數個人將成為比大多數其他群體更大的群體的成員。

  • groups.

    群體。

  • The takeaway is that an individual should expect to be a member of a large group, not

    啟示是,個人應該期望成為一個大團體的成員,而不是。

  • an ordinary one. If you don't know what group you fall into (like, I don't know

    一個普通的。如果你不知道自己屬於哪一類人(比如說,我就不知道

  • what my blood type is), the most likely groups to be in are the biggest ones – I'm probably

    我的血型是什麼),最有可能的群體是最大的群體--我可能是...。

  • O or A positive.

    O或A正。

  • And when it comes to intelligent life forms, we humans don't know what kind of group

    而說到智慧生命體,我們人類不知道是什麼樣的群體

  • we fall into. So statistics tells us that we, as individuals, should expect to be members

    我們屬於。所以統計學告訴我們,作為個人,我們應該期望成為成員

  • of a large group of intelligent beings. That is, we should expect that our species has

    的一大群智慧生命。也就是說,我們應該期望我們的物種有... ...

  • a higher population than most other species. And just knowing that we probably have a high

    比其他大多數物種的數量要高。只是知道我們可能有一個高

  • population tells us a lot.

    人口告訴我們很多東西。

  • For example, individual living beings require space to live – I mean, the countries with

    例如,生物個體需要生活空間--我是說,有的國家有

  • the biggest populations tend to have large land areasso earth, with its high population,

    人口最多的地方往往土地面積大--所以地球,人口多。

  • is probably bigger than most other planets with intelligent life.

    可能比其他大多數有智慧生命的行星還要大。

  • Similarly, smaller living creatures need less space and energy per creature, and accordingly

    同樣,較小的生物對每個生物所需的空間和能量也較少,相應地

  • tend to have higher population densities: that's why there are way more ants on earth

    往往有較高的人口密度:這就是為什麼地球上的螞蟻多得多。

  • than elephants. So humans, with our high population, are probably physically smaller than most

    比大象還小所以,人類在人口眾多的情況下,體型可能比大多數人都要小。

  • other species of intelligent life.

    其他物種的智慧生命。

  • In fact, we should expect to be abnormal among intelligent aliens when it comes to anything

    其實,我們應該想到,在智慧外星人中,當涉及到任何事情時,我們應該是不正常的。

  • that influences overall population size. Like, easily available energy makes it easier to

    影響整體人口數量的。就像,容易獲得的能源使它更容易

  • maintain higher populations, so we should expect our sun to be somewhat hotter and brighter

    維持較高的人口數量,所以我們應該期待我們的太陽會更熱更亮一些

  • and closer than the stars of most intelligent alien species; and we should expect our atmosphere

    而且比大多數外星智慧物種的恆星更近;我們應該期望我們的大氣層

  • to be more transparent to our star's light; and so on.

    以便對我們的恆星的光線更加透明;等等。

  • If this all sounds a bit unspecific, well, with just a few more simple and reasonable

    如果這一切聽起來有點不具體,那麼,只要再簡單合理地說幾句

  • assumptions based on basic physics, we can be more precise. Researchers have predicted

    基於基本物理學的假設,我們可以更加精確。研究人員已經預測到

  • that the population of most intelligent alien species should be below 20 million individuals;

    大多數外星智慧物種的數量應該低於2000萬個體。

  • the majority of planets with intelligent life should have less than 80% the radius of the

    大多數有智慧生命的行星,其半徑應該小於八成。

  • earth; and the individuals of most intelligent alien species should be at least as massive

    而大多數外星智慧物種的個體至少也應該和地球一樣龐大。

  • as polar bears.

    作為北極熊。

  • So instead of looking for nearby intelligent extraterrestrials onearth-like planets”,

    所以,與其在 "類地行星 "上尋找附近的智慧外星人。

  • the intelligent approach might be to look for habitable planets slightly smaller, darker,

    聰明的做法可能是尋找可居住的行星 稍微小一點的,黑暗的。

  • and hazier than our own. In short, we should expect to be the Manchester United

    和比我們自己的更瘋狂。簡而言之,我們應該期望成為曼徹斯特聯隊。

  • of the universe, searching for AFC Wimbledon.

    的宇宙,尋找亞足聯溫布爾登。

When we think of looking for extra-terrestrial life, we tend to focus onearth-like

當我們想到要尋找地外生命時,我們傾向於關注 "類地球"。

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外星人:我們找錯地方了嗎? (Aliens: Are We Looking in the Wrong Place?)

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    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 02 月 18 日
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