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  • Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

    謄寫者: Leslie GauthierLeslie Gauthier 審稿人: Krystian ApartaKrystian Aparta

  • Imagine you're on a shopping trip.

    想象一下,你在購物。

  • You've been looking for a luxury-line dinnerware set

    您一直在尋找一套豪華的餐具。

  • to add to your kitchen collection.

    以增加您的廚房收藏。

  • As it turns out,

    結果發現。

  • your local department store has announced a sale

    你當地的百貨公司宣佈打折

  • on the very set you've been looking for,

    在你一直在尋找的那一套。

  • so you rush to the store to find a 24-piece set on sale.

    所以你趕緊去商店找到了一套24件套在打折。

  • Eight dinner plates, all in good condition;

    八個餐盤,都是狀況良好。

  • eight soup and salad bowls, all in good condition;

    八個湯碗和沙拉碗,都保存完好。

  • and eight dessert plates, all in good condition.

    和八個甜點盤,都是狀況良好。

  • Now, consider for a moment

    現在,考慮一下

  • how much you would be willing to pay for this dinnerware set.

    你願意為這套餐具支付多少錢。

  • Now imagine an alternate scenario.

    現在想象一下另一種情況。

  • Not having seen this 24-piece luxury set,

    沒有見過這套24件套的奢侈品。

  • you rush to the store to find a 40-piece dinnerware set on sale.

    你急忙跑到商店,發現一套40件的餐具在打折。

  • Eight dinner plates, all in good condition;

    八個餐盤,都是狀況良好。

  • eight soup and salad bowls, all in good condition;

    八個湯碗和沙拉碗,都保存完好。

  • eight dessert plates, all in good condition;

    八個甜點盤,都是狀況良好。

  • eight cups, two of them are broken;

    八個杯子,其中兩個是破的。

  • eight saucers, seven of them are broken.

    8個碟子,其中7個壞了。

  • Now consider for a moment

    現在考慮一下

  • how much you would be willing to pay for this 40-piece dinnerware set.

    你願意為這套40件的餐具支付多少錢。

  • This is the premise of a clever experiment by Christopher Hsee

    這是Christopher Hsee的一個聰明實驗的前提。

  • from the University of Chicago.

    從芝加哥大學。

  • It's also the question that I've asked hundreds of students in my classroom.

    這也是我在課堂上問過數百名學生的問題。

  • What were their responses?

    他們的反應是什麼?

  • On average, when afforded the 24-piece luxury set,

    平均來說,當買得起24件豪華套裝。

  • they were willing to spend 390 pounds for the set.

    他們願意花390磅買這套東西。

  • When afforded the 40-piece dinnerware set,

    當得起40件套餐具。

  • on average, they were willing to spend a whopping 192 pounds

    平均而言,他們願意花費192英鎊的高額費用。

  • for this dinnerware set.

    為這套餐具。

  • Strictly speaking, these are an irrational set of numbers.

    嚴格來說,這些都是一組無理數。

  • You'll notice the 40-piece dinnerware set

    你會注意到這套40件的餐具。

  • includes all elements you would get in the 24-piece set,

    包括24件套中的所有元素。

  • plus six cups and one saucer.

    加上六個杯子和一個碟子。

  • And not only are you not willing to spend what you will for the 24-piece set,

    而你不僅不願意花24件套的錢。

  • you're only willing to spend roughly half of what you will for that 24-piece set.

    你只願意花大概一半的錢買那套24件套。

  • What you're witnessing here

    你在這裡看到的

  • is what's referred to as the dilution effect.

    就是所謂的稀釋效應。

  • The broken items, if you will,

    破損的物品,如果你願意。

  • dilute our overall perceived value of that entire set.

    淡化了我們對這一整套的整體認知價值。

  • Turns out this cognitive quirk at the checkout counter

    原來,收銀臺的這種認知怪癖。

  • has important implications

    具有重要意義

  • for our ability to be heard and listened to when we speak up.

    因為當我們大聲說話時,我們有能力被聽到和被傾聽。

  • Whether you are speaking up against a failing strategy,

    無論你是在說反對失敗的策略。

  • speaking against the grain of a shared opinion among friends

    異口同聲

  • or speaking truth to power,

    或對權力說真話。

  • this takes courage.

    這需要勇氣。

  • Often, the points that are raised

    通常情況下,所提出的觀點

  • are both legitimate but also shared by others.

    既是合法的,但也被他人所認同。

  • But sadly, and far too often,

    但遺憾的是,而且太頻繁了。

  • we see people speak up but fail to influence others

    見人說人話,見鬼說鬼話

  • in the way that they had hoped for.

    以他們所希望的方式。

  • Put another way,

    換個角度說。

  • their message was sound,

    他們的資訊是正確的。

  • but their delivery proved faulty.

    但他們的交付被證明是有問題的。

  • If we could understand this cognitive bias,

    如果我們能理解這種認知偏差。

  • it holds important implications

    它具有重要意義

  • for how we could craft and mold our messages

    我們如何精心設計和塑造我們的資訊

  • to have the impact we all desire ...

    我們都希望能產生影響......。

  • to be more influential as a communicator.

    以便作為一個傳播者更有影響力。

  • Let's exit the aisles of the shopping center

    讓我們走出購物中心的過道吧

  • and enter a context in which we practice almost automatically every day:

    並進入一個我們每天幾乎自動練習的情境中。

  • the judgment of others.

    別人的評價。

  • Let me introduce you to two individuals.

    讓我給你介紹兩個人。

  • Tim studies 31 hours a week outside of class.

    蒂姆每週課外學習31小時。

  • Tom, like Tim, also spends 31 hours outside of class studying.

    湯姆和蒂姆一樣,也會在課外花31個小時學習。

  • He has a brother and two sisters,

    他有一個哥哥和兩個姐姐。

  • he visits his grandparents,

    他去看望他的祖父母。

  • he once went on a blind date,

    他曾經去相親。

  • plays pool every two months.

    每兩個月打一次撞球。

  • When participants are asked to evaluate

    當參與者被要求評價

  • the cognitive aptitude of these individuals,

    這些人的認知能力。

  • or more importantly, their scholastic achievement,

    或者更重要的是,他們的學習成績。

  • on average, people rate Tim

    平均而言,人們對蒂姆的評價是

  • to have a significantly higher GPA than that of Tom.

    的GPA明顯高於湯姆。

  • But why?

    但為什麼呢?

  • After all, both of them spend 31 hours a week outside of class.

    畢竟,他們兩人每週在課外的時間都是31小時。

  • Turns out in these contexts,

    原來在這些背景下。

  • when we're presented such information,

    當我們收到這樣的資訊時,。

  • our minds utilize two categories of information:

    我們的大腦利用兩類資訊。

  • diagnostic and nondiagnostic.

    診斷性和非診斷性。

  • Diagnostic information is information of relevance

    診斷資訊是指相關的資訊

  • to the valuation that is being made.

    到正在進行的估價。

  • Nondiagnostic is information that is irrelevant or inconsequential

    非診斷性是指不相關或不重要的資訊。

  • to that valuation.

    到該估值。

  • And when both categories of information are mixed,

    而當兩類資訊混雜在一起時。

  • dilution occurs.

    稀釋發生。

  • The very fact that Tom has a brother and two sisters

    湯姆有一個哥哥和兩個妹妹的事實

  • or plays pool every two months

    或每兩個月打一次撞球

  • dilutes the diagnostic information,

    淡化了診斷資訊。

  • or more importantly,

    或者更重要的是。

  • dilutes the value and weight of that diagnostic information,

    沖淡了該診斷資訊的價值和分量。

  • namely that he studies 31 hours a week outside of class.

    即他每週課外學習31小時。

  • The most robust psychological explanation for this is one of averaging.

    最有力的心理學解釋是平均化。

  • In this model, we take in information,

    在這種模式下,我們接受資訊。

  • and those information are afforded a weighted score.

    並對這些資訊進行加權評分。

  • And our minds do not add those pieces of information,

    而我們的大腦並沒有添加這些資訊。

  • but rather average those pieces of information.

    而是平均這些資訊。

  • So when you introduce irrelevant or even weak arguments,

    所以,當你引入不相關甚至是弱小的論點時。

  • those weak arguments, if you will,

    那些薄弱的論點,如果你願意。

  • reduce the weight of your overall argument.

    減少你整體論點的分量。

  • A few years ago,

    幾年前。

  • I landed in Philadelphia one August evening

    八月的一個傍晚,我降落在費城。

  • for a conference.

    召開會議。

  • Having just gotten off a transatlantic flight,

    剛下了一個跨大西洋的班機。

  • I checked into my hotel room, put my feet up

    我住進了酒店的房間,把腳抬起來

  • and decided to distract my jet lag with some TV.

    並決定用電視來分散我的時差。

  • An ad caught my attention.

    一則廣告引起了我的注意。

  • The ad was an ad for a pharmaceutical drug.

    該廣告是一則藥品廣告。

  • Now if you're the select few who've not had the pleasure of witnessing these ads,

    現在如果你是少數沒有有幸目睹這些廣告的人。

  • the typical architecture of these ads

    這些廣告的典型架構

  • is you might see a happy couple prancing through their garden,

    是你可能會看到一對幸福的夫婦在花園裡奔跑。

  • reveling in the joy that they got a full night's sleep

    欣喜地發現他們睡得很香

  • with the aid of the sleep drug.

    在睡眠藥物的幫助下。

  • Because of FDA regulations,

    因為FDA的規定。

  • the last few seconds of this one-minute ad needs to be devoted to the side effects

    這個一分鐘的廣告的最後幾秒鐘需要致力於副作用

  • of that drug.

    該藥物的。

  • And what you'll typically hear is a hurried voice-over that blurts out

    而你通常會聽到的是一個匆匆忙忙的旁白,脫口而出的是

  • "Side effects include heart attack, stroke,

    "副作用包括心臟病發作、中風。

  • blah, blah, blah,"

    諸如此類"。

  • and will end with something like "itchy feet."

    並會以 "腳癢 "這樣的字眼結尾。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Guess what "itchy feet" does to people's risk assessment

    猜測 "腳癢 "對人的風險評估有什麼影響?

  • of "heart attack" and "stroke"?

    的 "心臟病 "和 "中風"?

  • It dilutes it.

    它稀釋了它。

  • Imagine for a moment an alternate commercial

    想象一下另一個廣告

  • that says "This drug cures your sleep problems,

    說:"這種藥可以治療你的睡眠問題。

  • side effects are heart attack and stroke."

    副作用是心臟病發作和中風。"

  • Stop.

    停止。

  • Now all of a sudden you're thinking, "I don't mind staying up all night."

    現在你突然想,"我不介意熬夜"。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Turns out going to sleep is important,

    原來睡覺很重要。

  • but so is waking up.

    但醒悟也是如此。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Let me give you a sample from our research.

    讓我給你一個我們研究的樣本。

  • So this ad that I witnessed essentially triggered a research project

    所以,我看到的這則廣告,基本上引發了一個研究項目。

  • with my PhD student, Hemant, over the next two years.

    與我的博士生,Hemant,在接下來的兩年裡。

  • And in one of these studies,

    而在其中一項研究中。

  • we presented participants an actual print ad

    我們向與會者展示了一個實際的平面廣告

  • that appeared in a magazine.

    在雜誌上出現的。

  • [Soothing rest for mind and body.]

    [舒緩身心的休息。]

  • You'll notice the last line is devoted to the side effects

    你會注意到最後一行是專門講副作用的

  • of this drug.

    這種藥物的。

  • For half of the participants,

    對於一半的參與者來說:

  • we showed the ad in its entirety,

    我們展示了廣告的全部內容。

  • which included both major side effects as well as minor side effects.

    其中既包括主要的副作用,也包括次要的副作用。

  • To the other half of the participants,

    對另一半的參與者來說。

  • we showed the same ad with one small modification:

    我們展示了同樣的廣告,但有一個小的修改。

  • we extracted just four words out of the sea of text.

    我們從文字的海洋中只提取了四個字。

  • Specifically, we extracted the minor side effects.

    具體來說,我們提取了小的副作用。

  • And then both sets of participants rated that drug.

    然後兩組參與者都對這種藥物進行了評價。

  • What we find is that individuals who were exposed

    我們的發現是,接觸過的人

  • to both the major side effects as well as the minor side effects

    對主要的副作用和次要的副作用都有影響。

  • rated the drug's overall severity to be significantly lower

    評定該藥物的總體嚴重程度明顯低於其他藥物。

  • than those who were only exposed to the major side effects.

    比只接觸到主要副作用的人。

  • Furthermore, they also showed greater attraction

    此外,他們還表現出更大的吸引力

  • towards consuming this drug.

    向消費這種藥物。

  • In a follow-up study,

    在一項後續研究中。

  • we even find that individuals are willing to pay more

    我們甚至發現,個人願意支付更多的錢。

  • to buy the drug which they were exposed to

    購買他們所接觸的藥物

  • that had both major side effects as well as minor side effects,

    既有大的副作用,也有小的副作用。

  • compared to just major side effects alone.

    相比僅僅是主要的副作用。

  • So it turns out pharmaceutical ads,

    所以,原來醫藥廣告。

  • by listing both major side effects as well as minor side effects,

    通過列出主要的副作用和次要的副作用。

  • paradoxically dilute participants' and potential consumers'

    矛盾地淡化了參與者和潛在消費者的。

  • overall risk assessment of that drug.

    該藥物的總體風險評估。

  • Going beyond shopping expeditions,

    超越購物考察。

  • going beyond the evaluation of the scholastic aptitude of others,

    超越了對他人學術能力的評價;

  • and beyond evaluating risk in our environment,

    以及評估我們環境中的風險。

  • what this body of research tells us

    這些研究告訴我們什麼?

  • is that in the world of communicating for the purposes of influence,

    是,在以影響為目的的交流世界中。

  • quality trumps quantity.

    質勝於量

  • By increasing the number of arguments,

    通過增加論據的數量。

  • you do not strengthen your case,

    你不加強你的情況。

  • but rather you actively weaken it.

    而是你主動削弱它。

  • Put another way,

    換個角度說。

  • you cannot increase the quality of an argument

    欲加之罪何患無辭

  • by simply increasing the quantity of your argument.

    通過簡單的增加你的論點數量。

  • The next time you want to speak up in a meeting,

    下次你想在會議上發言的時候。

  • speak in favor of a government legislation that you're deeply passionate about,

    說出你對政府立法的支持,你深深的熱情。

  • or simply want to help a friend see the world through a different lens,

    或者只是想幫助朋友通過不同的視角看世界。

  • it is important to note

    需要注意的是

  • that the delivery of your message is every bit as important as its content.

    你的資訊傳遞與內容同樣重要。

  • Stick to your strong arguments,

    堅持你的有力論據。

  • because your arguments don't add up in the minds of the receiver,

    因為你的論點在接受者的心目中是不成立的。

  • they average out.

    他們平均。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你了

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

謄寫者: Leslie GauthierLeslie Gauthier 審稿人: Krystian ApartaKrystian Aparta

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