Imagine you're on a shopping trip.

想象一下，你在購物。

You've been looking for a luxury-line dinnerware set

您一直在尋找一套豪華的餐具。

to add to your kitchen collection.

以增加您的廚房收藏。

As it turns out,

結果發現。

your local department store has announced a sale

你當地的百貨公司宣佈打折

on the very set you've been looking for,

在你一直在尋找的那一套。

so you rush to the store to find a 24-piece set on sale.

所以你趕緊去商店找到了一套24件套在打折。

Eight dinner plates, all in good condition;

八個餐盤，都是狀況良好。

eight soup and salad bowls, all in good condition;

八個湯碗和沙拉碗，都保存完好。

and eight dessert plates, all in good condition.

和八個甜點盤，都是狀況良好。

Now, consider for a moment

現在，考慮一下

how much you would be willing to pay for this dinnerware set.

你願意為這套餐具支付多少錢。

Now imagine an alternate scenario.

現在想象一下另一種情況。

Not having seen this 24-piece luxury set,

沒有見過這套24件套的奢侈品。

you rush to the store to find a 40-piece dinnerware set on sale.

你急忙跑到商店，發現一套40件的餐具在打折。

Eight dinner plates, all in good condition;

八個餐盤，都是狀況良好。

eight soup and salad bowls, all in good condition;

八個湯碗和沙拉碗，都保存完好。

eight dessert plates, all in good condition;

八個甜點盤，都是狀況良好。

eight cups, two of them are broken;

八個杯子，其中兩個是破的。

eight saucers, seven of them are broken.

8個碟子，其中7個壞了。

Now consider for a moment

現在考慮一下

how much you would be willing to pay for this 40-piece dinnerware set.

你願意為這套40件的餐具支付多少錢。

This is the premise of a clever experiment by Christopher Hsee

這是Christopher Hsee的一個聰明實驗的前提。

from the University of Chicago.

從芝加哥大學。

It's also the question that I've asked hundreds of students in my classroom.

這也是我在課堂上問過數百名學生的問題。

What were their responses?

他們的反應是什麼？

On average, when afforded the 24-piece luxury set,

平均來說，當買得起24件豪華套裝。

they were willing to spend 390 pounds for the set.

他們願意花390磅買這套東西。

When afforded the 40-piece dinnerware set,

當得起40件套餐具。

on average, they were willing to spend a whopping 192 pounds

平均而言，他們願意花費192英鎊的高額費用。

for this dinnerware set.

為這套餐具。

Strictly speaking, these are an irrational set of numbers.

嚴格來說，這些都是一組無理數。

You'll notice the 40-piece dinnerware set

你會注意到這套40件的餐具。

includes all elements you would get in the 24-piece set,

包括24件套中的所有元素。

plus six cups and one saucer.

加上六個杯子和一個碟子。

And not only are you not willing to spend what you will for the 24-piece set,

而你不僅不願意花24件套的錢。

you're only willing to spend roughly half of what you will for that 24-piece set.

你只願意花大概一半的錢買那套24件套。

What you're witnessing here

你在這裡看到的

is what's referred to as the dilution effect.

就是所謂的稀釋效應。

The broken items, if you will,

破損的物品，如果你願意。

dilute our overall perceived value of that entire set.

淡化了我們對這一整套的整體認知價值。

Turns out this cognitive quirk at the checkout counter

原來，收銀臺的這種認知怪癖。

has important implications

具有重要意義

for our ability to be heard and listened to when we speak up.

因為當我們大聲說話時，我們有能力被聽到和被傾聽。

Whether you are speaking up against a failing strategy,

無論你是在說反對失敗的策略。

speaking against the grain of a shared opinion among friends

異口同聲

or speaking truth to power,

或對權力說真話。

this takes courage.

這需要勇氣。

Often, the points that are raised

通常情況下，所提出的觀點

are both legitimate but also shared by others.

既是合法的，但也被他人所認同。

But sadly, and far too often,

但遺憾的是，而且太頻繁了。

we see people speak up but fail to influence others

見人說人話，見鬼說鬼話

in the way that they had hoped for.

以他們所希望的方式。

Put another way,

換個角度說。

their message was sound,

他們的資訊是正確的。

but their delivery proved faulty.

但他們的交付被證明是有問題的。

If we could understand this cognitive bias,

如果我們能理解這種認知偏差。

it holds important implications

它具有重要意義

for how we could craft and mold our messages

我們如何精心設計和塑造我們的資訊

to have the impact we all desire ...

我們都希望能產生影響......。

to be more influential as a communicator.

以便作為一個傳播者更有影響力。

Let's exit the aisles of the shopping center

讓我們走出購物中心的過道吧

and enter a context in which we practice almost automatically every day:

並進入一個我們每天幾乎自動練習的情境中。

the judgment of others.

別人的評價。

Let me introduce you to two individuals.

讓我給你介紹兩個人。

Tim studies 31 hours a week outside of class.

蒂姆每週課外學習31小時。

Tom, like Tim, also spends 31 hours outside of class studying.

湯姆和蒂姆一樣，也會在課外花31個小時學習。

He has a brother and two sisters,

他有一個哥哥和兩個姐姐。

he visits his grandparents,

他去看望他的祖父母。

he once went on a blind date,

他曾經去相親。

plays pool every two months.

每兩個月打一次撞球。

When participants are asked to evaluate

當參與者被要求評價

the cognitive aptitude of these individuals,

這些人的認知能力。

or more importantly, their scholastic achievement,

或者更重要的是，他們的學習成績。

on average, people rate Tim

平均而言，人們對蒂姆的評價是

to have a significantly higher GPA than that of Tom.

的GPA明顯高於湯姆。

But why?

但為什麼呢？

After all, both of them spend 31 hours a week outside of class.

畢竟，他們兩人每週在課外的時間都是31小時。

Turns out in these contexts,

原來在這些背景下。

when we're presented such information,

當我們收到這樣的資訊時，。

our minds utilize two categories of information:

我們的大腦利用兩類資訊。

diagnostic and nondiagnostic.

診斷性和非診斷性。

Diagnostic information is information of relevance

診斷資訊是指相關的資訊

to the valuation that is being made.

到正在進行的估價。

Nondiagnostic is information that is irrelevant or inconsequential

非診斷性是指不相關或不重要的資訊。

to that valuation.

到該估值。

And when both categories of information are mixed,

而當兩類資訊混雜在一起時。

dilution occurs.

稀釋發生。

The very fact that Tom has a brother and two sisters

湯姆有一個哥哥和兩個妹妹的事實

or plays pool every two months

或每兩個月打一次撞球

dilutes the diagnostic information,

淡化了診斷資訊。

or more importantly,

或者更重要的是。

dilutes the value and weight of that diagnostic information,

沖淡了該診斷資訊的價值和分量。

namely that he studies 31 hours a week outside of class.

即他每週課外學習31小時。

The most robust psychological explanation for this is one of averaging.

最有力的心理學解釋是平均化。

In this model, we take in information,

在這種模式下，我們接受資訊。

and those information are afforded a weighted score.

並對這些資訊進行加權評分。

And our minds do not add those pieces of information,

而我們的大腦並沒有添加這些資訊。

but rather average those pieces of information.

而是平均這些資訊。

So when you introduce irrelevant or even weak arguments,

所以，當你引入不相關甚至是弱小的論點時。

those weak arguments, if you will,

那些薄弱的論點，如果你願意。

reduce the weight of your overall argument.

減少你整體論點的分量。

A few years ago,

幾年前。

I landed in Philadelphia one August evening

八月的一個傍晚，我降落在費城。

for a conference.

召開會議。

Having just gotten off a transatlantic flight,

剛下了一個跨大西洋的班機。

I checked into my hotel room, put my feet up

我住進了酒店的房間，把腳抬起來

and decided to distract my jet lag with some TV.

並決定用電視來分散我的時差。

An ad caught my attention.

一則廣告引起了我的注意。

The ad was an ad for a pharmaceutical drug.

該廣告是一則藥品廣告。

Now if you're the select few who've not had the pleasure of witnessing these ads,

現在如果你是少數沒有有幸目睹這些廣告的人。

the typical architecture of these ads

這些廣告的典型架構

is you might see a happy couple prancing through their garden,

是你可能會看到一對幸福的夫婦在花園裡奔跑。

reveling in the joy that they got a full night's sleep

欣喜地發現他們睡得很香

with the aid of the sleep drug.

在睡眠藥物的幫助下。

Because of FDA regulations,

因為FDA的規定。

the last few seconds of this one-minute ad needs to be devoted to the side effects

這個一分鐘的廣告的最後幾秒鐘需要致力於副作用

of that drug.

該藥物的。

And what you'll typically hear is a hurried voice-over that blurts out

而你通常會聽到的是一個匆匆忙忙的旁白，脫口而出的是

"Side effects include heart attack, stroke,

"副作用包括心臟病發作、中風。

blah, blah, blah,"

諸如此類"。

and will end with something like "itchy feet."

並會以 "腳癢 "這樣的字眼結尾。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Guess what "itchy feet" does to people's risk assessment

猜測 "腳癢 "對人的風險評估有什麼影響？

of "heart attack" and "stroke"?

的 "心臟病 "和 "中風"？

It dilutes it.

它稀釋了它。

Imagine for a moment an alternate commercial

想象一下另一個廣告

that says "This drug cures your sleep problems,

說："這種藥可以治療你的睡眠問題。

side effects are heart attack and stroke."

副作用是心臟病發作和中風。"

Stop.

停止。

Now all of a sudden you're thinking, "I don't mind staying up all night."

現在你突然想，"我不介意熬夜"。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Turns out going to sleep is important,

原來睡覺很重要。

but so is waking up.

但醒悟也是如此。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Let me give you a sample from our research.

讓我給你一個我們研究的樣本。

So this ad that I witnessed essentially triggered a research project

所以，我看到的這則廣告，基本上引發了一個研究項目。

with my PhD student, Hemant, over the next two years.

與我的博士生，Hemant，在接下來的兩年裡。

And in one of these studies,

而在其中一項研究中。

we presented participants an actual print ad

我們向與會者展示了一個實際的平面廣告

that appeared in a magazine.

在雜誌上出現的。

[Soothing rest for mind and body.]

[舒緩身心的休息。]

You'll notice the last line is devoted to the side effects

你會注意到最後一行是專門講副作用的

of this drug.

這種藥物的。

For half of the participants,

對於一半的參與者來說：

we showed the ad in its entirety,

我們展示了廣告的全部內容。

which included both major side effects as well as minor side effects.

其中既包括主要的副作用，也包括次要的副作用。

To the other half of the participants,

對另一半的參與者來說。

we showed the same ad with one small modification:

我們展示了同樣的廣告，但有一個小的修改。

we extracted just four words out of the sea of text.

我們從文字的海洋中只提取了四個字。

Specifically, we extracted the minor side effects.

具體來說，我們提取了小的副作用。

And then both sets of participants rated that drug.

然後兩組參與者都對這種藥物進行了評價。

What we find is that individuals who were exposed

我們的發現是，接觸過的人

to both the major side effects as well as the minor side effects

對主要的副作用和次要的副作用都有影響。

rated the drug's overall severity to be significantly lower

評定該藥物的總體嚴重程度明顯低於其他藥物。

than those who were only exposed to the major side effects.

比只接觸到主要副作用的人。

Furthermore, they also showed greater attraction

此外，他們還表現出更大的吸引力

towards consuming this drug.

向消費這種藥物。

In a follow-up study,

在一項後續研究中。

we even find that individuals are willing to pay more

我們甚至發現，個人願意支付更多的錢。

to buy the drug which they were exposed to

購買他們所接觸的藥物

that had both major side effects as well as minor side effects,

既有大的副作用，也有小的副作用。

compared to just major side effects alone.

相比僅僅是主要的副作用。

So it turns out pharmaceutical ads,

所以，原來醫藥廣告。

by listing both major side effects as well as minor side effects,

通過列出主要的副作用和次要的副作用。

paradoxically dilute participants' and potential consumers'

矛盾地淡化了參與者和潛在消費者的。

overall risk assessment of that drug.

該藥物的總體風險評估。

Going beyond shopping expeditions,

超越購物考察。

going beyond the evaluation of the scholastic aptitude of others,

超越了對他人學術能力的評價；

and beyond evaluating risk in our environment,

以及評估我們環境中的風險。

what this body of research tells us

這些研究告訴我們什麼？

is that in the world of communicating for the purposes of influence,

是，在以影響為目的的交流世界中。

quality trumps quantity.

質勝於量

By increasing the number of arguments,

通過增加論據的數量。

you do not strengthen your case,

你不加強你的情況。

but rather you actively weaken it.

而是你主動削弱它。

Put another way,

換個角度說。

you cannot increase the quality of an argument

欲加之罪何患無辭

by simply increasing the quantity of your argument.

通過簡單的增加你的論點數量。

The next time you want to speak up in a meeting,

下次你想在會議上發言的時候。

speak in favor of a government legislation that you're deeply passionate about,

說出你對政府立法的支持，你深深的熱情。

or simply want to help a friend see the world through a different lens,

或者只是想幫助朋友通過不同的視角看世界。

it is important to note

需要注意的是

that the delivery of your message is every bit as important as its content.

你的資訊傳遞與內容同樣重要。

Stick to your strong arguments,

堅持你的有力論據。

because your arguments don't add up in the minds of the receiver,

因為你的論點在接受者的心目中是不成立的。

they average out.

他們平均。

Thank you.

謝謝你了

(Applause)

(掌聲)