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  • Since 1800, the global population has risen from just 1 billion humans

    自1800年以來,全球人口已從僅有的10億人

  • to over 7.8 BILLION in 2020.

    到2020年超過78億。

  • And still, over four babies are born every second.

    但仍有超過4個嬰兒在每一秒鐘出生。

  • That's around 390,000 new humans a day!

    每天大約有39萬個新人類!

  • So, on a planet with dwindling resources and an increasing strain on natural systems

    所以,在一個資源不斷減少的星球上,自然系統的壓力越來越大... ...

  • is curbing our booming population the key to solving our environmental woes?

    抑制人口增長是解決環境問題的關鍵嗎?

  • Mathematically, we know that more people means more demand for Earth's natural resources.

    從數學上講,我們知道,更多的人意味著對地球自然資源的需求增加。

  • It can be simplified into this equation: population times affluence times technology equals impact on the environment.

    可以簡化成這樣一個等式:人口乘以富裕程度乘以技術等於對環境的影響。

  • So, the basic argument that less people would mean less greenhouse gases, less pollution, less habitat destruction

    所以,基本的論點是,人少就意味著溫室氣體少,汙染少,生境破壞少。

  • makes logical sense.

    在邏輯上是合理的。

  • But only on the surface.

    但只是表面上的。

  • Because notice that other key variable in the equation.

    因為注意到方程中的另一個關鍵變量。

  • Affluence.

    人群。

  • The more money populations have to burn, the more fossil fuels are burned along with it.

    人口要燒的錢越多,化石燃料也會跟著燒得越多。

  • In 2018, just North America and China were responsible for almost half of the world's CO2 emissions.

    2018年,僅北美和中國就佔了全球二氧化碳排放量的近一半。

  • These are also the countries with the highest concentrations of the world's wealthiest people.

    這些國家也是世界上最富有的人最集中的國家。

  • And get thistheir populations are living longer and having fewer babies, so their population growth is slowing down.

    而得到這個--他們的人口壽命更長,嬰兒更少,所以他們的人口增長正在放緩。

  • By contrast, the poorest half of the worldwhere most global population growth is currently concentrated

    相比之下,世界上最貧窮的一半地區--目前全球人口增長最集中的地方--則是:1.

  • produces only 10% of the world's CO2 emissions.

    產生的二氧化碳排放量僅佔全球的10%。

  • These populations typically lack the technology and wealth that result in high energy expenditure,

    這些人群通常缺乏技術和財富,導致能源消耗大。

  • increased industrialization, and pollution.

    工業化程度的提高,以及汙染。

  • So, in climate change projections that take these imbalances into account, it's been shown that redistributing wealth

    所以,在考慮到這些不平衡的氣候變化預測中,已經證明了財富的再分配------。

  • so, reducing both extreme wealth and extreme poverty

    所以,減少極端富裕和極端貧困----------。

  • has as much impact on carbon emissions as reducing overall population would.

    對碳排放的影響與減少總人口的影響一樣大。

  • Let's continue taking the climate crisis as our example.

    讓我們繼續以氣候危機為例。

  • The idea that less people equals less climate change works in theorybut in practice, calculations show that's not the case.

    人少等於氣候變化少的觀點在理論上是可行的--但在實踐中,計算結果表明,事實並非如此。

  • Even in projected scenarios where a reduction in population does make a difference in emissions,

    即使在預測的情景中,人口減少確實會對排放量產生影響。

  • it's not enough of a difference to affect projected temperature rise.

    它的差異不足以影響預計的溫度上升。

  • To put it bluntly, no amount of population reduction would achieve the reduction in emissions necessary

    直言不諱地說,無論減少多少人口,都無法實現必要的減排。

  • to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius in our near future.

    以期在不久的將來將全球變暖控制在2攝氏度以下。

  • You may have also heard that 'Just 100 companies produce 71% of the world's emissions.'

    你可能也聽說過'只有100家公司產生了全球71%的排放量'。

  • And this is true, but if you take a closer look at that list, you'll find that those companies are oil and gas conglomerates,

    這是事實,但如果你仔細看那份名單,你會發現,這些公司都是石油和天然氣集團。

  • and eight of the top ten aren't even companies.

    而前十名中有八名甚至不是公司。

  • They're either fully or partially state-owned oil and gas entities in places like China, Russia, Iran, and India.

    在中國、俄羅斯、伊朗和印度等地,它們要麼是完全或部分國有的石油和天然氣實體。

  • And that same report goes on to say that 90% of all of the emissions from those 100 companies

    而同一份報告還說,這100家公司90%的排放量都來自於這100家公司

  • actually comes fromdownstream combustion of coal, oil, and gas for energy purposes.”

    實際上是來自於 "煤炭、石油、天然氣的下游能源燃燒"。

  • That's the energy we useeverywhere around the world

    這就是我們所使用的能源--世界各地的能源--。

  • to heat our homes, fuel our transport, produce our goods...all provided by those 100 companies.

    為我們的家庭取暖,為我們的交通提供燃料,為我們的商品生產......都由這100家公司提供。

  • If we take all this information together, it boils down to this core idea:

    如果我們把這些資訊綜合起來,就會歸結為這個核心思想。

  • it's not huge populations that are making the difference, it's huge resource usage.

    這不是龐大的人口,而是龐大的資源使用量。

  • And this huge resource usage isn't coming from TONS of people...it's coming from relatively few.

    而這種巨大的資源使用量並不是來自於大量的人......而是來自於相對較少的人。

  • So, it seems the thing that would make an actual difference is not a reduction in population,

    所以,看來能起到實際作用的不是減少人口。

  • but a radical shift in the way we as a species use and share resources.

    但作為一個物種,我們使用和分享資源的方式卻發生了徹底的轉變。

  • And at the root of it, change what resources we're using.

    而從根本上說,改變我們使用的資源。

  • For example, the U.S. lowering its carbon usage by a third of what it is today would have a greater impact

    例如,美國將碳使用量降低到目前的三分之一,將產生更大的影響。

  • than reducing the U.S. population by 100 million people.

    比減少美國人口1億人。

  • So, why is population restriction such a popular go-to argument for how to tackle environmental problems like the climate crisis?

    那麼,為什麼在如何解決氣候危機等環境問題上,人口限制會成為一個流行的說法呢?

  • Realistic solutions for population stabilization and resource redistribution

    穩定人口和重新分配資源的現實解決辦法。

  • involve long term plans like improving gender equality in the form of women's access to education and family planning.

    涉及長期計劃,如以婦女接受教育和計劃生育的形式改善兩性平等;

  • We should always be asking, who benefits from an idea that's not necessarily based in logic.

    我們應該經常問,一個不一定基於邏輯的想法,誰會受益。

  • For those who say population reduction is the solution to our problems, whose population are they talking about reducing,

    對於那些說減少人口是解決我們的問題的人來說,他們所說的減少誰的人口。

  • and for what purpose?

    又是為了什麼?

  • Historically, this argument has been used by those who have an agenda to fulfill...

    從歷史上看,這種說法一直被那些有目的的人用來實現......。

  • an agenda much more often driven by things like classism, racism, or xenophobia than in actual fact...

    一個議程更多的往往驅動的東西 像階級主義,種族主義,或仇外心理 比實際的事實... ...

  • especially when the real solution is redistribution of wealth, as well as rethinking our use of natural resources

    特別是當真正的解決方案是財富的重新分配,以及重新思考我們對自然資源的使用時----。

  • natural resources that currently make a very small percentage of people very rich.

    自然資源,目前使極少數人非常富有。

  • What are your thoughts on the population control argument?

    對於控制人口的說法,你有什麼看法?

  • Let us know in the comments, and if you want more on climate change solutions, check out this video here.

    讓我們在評論中知道,如果你想了解更多關於氣候變化的解決方案,請看這裡的視頻。

  • Subscribe to Seeker to keep up with all your debunkings of popular science myths, and as always, thanks for watching.

    訂閱《探索者》,隨時瞭解您對流行科學神話的揭穿,一如既往,感謝您的觀看。

  • I'll see you next time.

    下次見。

Since 1800, the global population has risen from just 1 billion humans

自1800年以來,全球人口已從僅有的10億人

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B1 中級 中文 人口 資源 減少 排放量 氣候 全球

為什麼人口過剩不是你想象的問題? (Why Overpopulation Isn’t the Problem You Think It Is)

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    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 16 日
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