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  • So I'm a city planner, an urban designer,

    我是都市計劃師、城市設計師

  • former arts advocate,

    以前是藝術倡導者

  • trained in architecture and art history,

    學過建築和藝術史

  • and I want to talk to you today not about design

    我今天要談的不是設計

  • but about America

    而是美國

  • and how America can be more economically resilient,

    美國的經濟如何能更強韌

  • how America can be healthier,

    美國怎樣才會更健康

  • and how America can be

    美國的環境

  • more environmentally sustainable.

    怎樣才能永續

  • And I realize this is a global forum,

    我明白這是全球論壇

  • but I think I need to talk about America

    但我認為需要談談美國

  • because there is a history,

    因為歷史告訴我們

  • in some places, not all,

    世界有些地方

  • of American ideas being appropriated,

    美國人的觀念無論是好是壞

  • being emulated, for better or for worse,

    會被竊用、被仿效

  • around the world.

    這種現象舉世可見

  • And the worst idea we've ever had

    我們最壞的點子

  • is suburban sprawl.

    是郊區的擴展

  • It's being emulated in many places as we speak.

    此刻很多城市正在仿效

  • By suburban sprawl, I refer to the reorganization

    我所謂郊區擴展,是指重整地景

  • of the landscape and the creation of the landscape

    或是建造地景

  • around the requirement of automobile use,

    完全以汽車的使用需求為前提

  • and that the automobile that was once an instrument of freedom

    汽車過去是解放人的工具

  • has become a gas-belching,

    如今已變成消耗汽油

  • time-wasting and life-threatening

    浪費時間、威脅生命

  • prosthetic device

    像義肢一樣的裝備

  • that many of us need just to,

    我們許多人

  • most Americans, in fact, need,

    事實上大多數美國人

  • just to live their daily lives.

    日常生活不可無車

  • And there's an alternative.

    但我們還是有選擇

  • You know, we say, half the world is living in cities.

    全世界一半的人口住在城市

  • Well, in America, that living in cities,

    不過在美國

  • for many of them, they're living in cities still

    很多人即使住在城市

  • where they're dependent on that automobile.

    仍然依賴汽車

  • And what I work for, and to do,

    我的志業和工作目標

  • is to make our cities more walkable.

    是讓城市更適宜步行

  • But I can't give design arguments for that

    但我不打算談設計方面的論點

  • that will have as much impact

    雖然這方面的衝擊也不小

  • as the arguments that I've learned

    我要談的論據來自

  • from the economists, the epidemiologists

    經濟學家、流行病學家

  • and the environmentalists.

    以及環保人士

  • So these are the three arguments that I'm going

    這三方面的論據

  • to give you quickly today.

    今天我會很快地探討

  • When I was growing up in the '70s,

    在我成長的1970年代

  • the typical American spent one tenth of their income,

    美國一般家庭所得的十分之一

  • American family, on transportation.

    花在交通上

  • Since then, we've doubled the number of roads

    如今我們的道路已經倍增

  • in America, and we now spend one fifth

    現在我們所得的五分之一

  • of our income on transportation.

    花在交通上

  • Working families, which are defined as

    工薪家庭在美國的定義是

  • earning between 20,000 and 50,000 dollars

    每年工作收入

  • a year in America

    兩萬至五萬美元的家庭

  • are spending more now on transportation

    他們現在的交通花費

  • than on housing, slightly more,

    略高於住房費用

  • because of this phenomenon called "drive till you qualify,"

    有個現象叫做「開到你買得起為止」

  • finding homes further and further and further

    買得起的房子越來越偏遠

  • from the city centers and from their jobs,

    遠離市中心和上班的地方

  • so that they're locked in this, two, three hours,

    所以他們必須花兩三個小時

  • four hours a day of commuting.

    甚至四個小時通勤

  • And these are the neighborhoods, for example,

    這種通勤社區的例子

  • in the Central Valley of California

    就在加州的中央山谷

  • that weren't hurt when the housing bubble burst

    房市泡沫破滅的時候

  • and when the price of gas went up;

    以及油價上漲的時候

  • they were decimated.

    社區不只是受創,而是消亡

  • And in fact, these are many

    其實現在還看得到很多

  • of the half-vacant communities that you see today.

    半數是空屋的這種社區

  • Imagine putting everything you have into your mortgage,

    想想看,錢都拿去付了房貸

  • it goes underwater, and you have to pay

    房價卻低於房貸欠款

  • twice as much for all the driving that you're doing.

    偏偏通勤的油費又倍增

  • So we know what it's done to our society

    所以我們明白社會受到的衝擊

  • and all the extra work we have to do

    以及為了行車

  • to support our cars.

    必須做的額外付出

  • What happens when a city decides

    如果一個城市

  • it's going to set other priorities?

    不把汽車視為優先又會如何?

  • And probably the best example we have here

    美國的最佳例子

  • in America is Portland, Oregon.

    可能是奧勒崗州的波特蘭

  • Portland made a bunch of decisions in the 1970s

    波特蘭在1970年代的一些決定

  • that began to distinguish it

    導致該城脫穎而出

  • from almost every other American city.

    美國其他城市鮮少匹敵

  • While most other cities were growing

    其他大多數城市

  • an undifferentiated spare tire of sprawl,

    無計劃地向郊區蔓延

  • they instituted an urban growth boundary.

    波特蘭則設立了都市成長的界限

  • While most cities were reaming out their roads,

    其他大多數城市在擴張道路

  • removing parallel parking and trees

    移除路邊停車位和樹木

  • in order to flow more traffic,

    以便增加交通流量

  • they instituted a skinny streets program.

    波特蘭則訂定了窄路計劃

  • And while most cities were investing in more roads

    其他大多數城市在建設更多公路

  • and more highways, they actually invested

    和高速公路,波特蘭則把錢花在

  • in bicycling and in walking.

    自行車和步行方面

  • And they spent 60 million dollars on bike facilities,

    光是自行車設施就花了他們六千萬

  • which seems like a lot of money,

    看起來很多錢

  • but it was spent over about 30 years,

    不過那是30年的總花費

  • so two million dollars a year -- not that much --

    平均每年兩百萬美元,也不算貴

  • and half the price of the one cloverleaf

    他們重建一個立體交流道

  • that they decided to rebuild in that city.

    要花一倍的錢

  • These changes and others like them changed

    這些及其他類似的變更

  • the way that Portlanders live,

    改變了波特蘭人生活的方式

  • and their vehicle-miles traveled per day,

    他們每天行車的里程數

  • the amount that each person drives,

    每人開車的里程數

  • actually peaked in 1996,

    其實在1996年達到高峰

  • has been dropping ever since,

    然後就持續下降

  • and they now drive 20 percent less

    他們現在開車的里程數

  • than the rest of the country.

    比全國其他人少兩成

  • The typical Portland citizen drives

    波特蘭一般市民開車

  • four miles less, and 11 minutes less per day

    每天里程數比以前少了四哩

  • than they did before.

    時間比以前少了11分鐘

  • The economist Joe Cortright did the math

    經濟學家喬伊.柯爾賴特 (Joe Cortright) 做了計算

  • and he found out that those four miles

    他發現這四哩

  • plus those 11 minutes

    以及11分鐘的耗費

  • adds up to fully three and a half percent

    足足等於波特蘭地區

  • of all income earned in the region.

    總所得的3.5%

  • So if they're not spending that money on driving --

    從開車上面省下的錢

  • and by the way, 85 percent of the money

    順便提一下,開車的花費

  • we spend on driving leaves the local economy --

    85%流出地方經濟

  • if they're not spending that money on driving,

    這些從開車上面省下的錢

  • what are they spending it on?

    波特蘭人花到哪去了?

  • Well, Portland is reputed to have

    波特蘭聞名的是

  • the most roof racks per capita,

    休閒用車頂置物架人均最多

  • the most independent bookstores per capita,

    獨立書店人均最多

  • the most strip clubs per capita.

    脫衣舞俱樂部人均最多

  • These are all exaggerations, slight exaggerations

    我誇大了,稍微誇大了

  • of a fundamental truth, which is Portlanders

    但事實上波特蘭人

  • spend a lot more on recreation of all kinds

    花在各種休閒活動的錢

  • than the rest of America.

    遠超乎其他美國人

  • Actually, Oregonians spend more on alcohol

    其實奧勒崗人喝酒的花費

  • than most other states,

    高出其他州的居民

  • which may be a good thing or a bad thing,

    是福是禍不知道

  • but it makes you glad they're driving less.

    但我們樂見他們較少開車

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • But actually, they're spending most of it in their homes,

    其實他們在住家上花的錢最多

  • and home investment is about as local

    還有什麼能比住家的投資

  • an investment as you can get.

    更能注入地方經濟?

  • But there's a whole other Portland story,

    但是波特蘭還有個現象

  • which isn't part of this calculus,

    是經濟學家沒計算的

  • which is that young, educated people

    那就是受過教育的年輕人

  • have been moving to Portland in droves,

    成群結隊地搬到波特蘭

  • so that between the last two censuses,

    過去兩次人口普查之間

  • they had a 50-percent increase

    大學畢業的千禧世代

  • in college-educated millennials,

    人口增加了五成

  • which is five times what you saw anywhere else

    是其他地方的五倍

  • in the country, or, I should say, of the national average.

    應該說是全國平均的五倍

  • So on the one hand, a city saves money for its residents

    適宜步行和騎單車的城市

  • by being more walkable and more bikeable,

    一方面替市民省錢

  • but on the other hand, it also is the cool kind of city

    另一方面也是很酷的城市

  • that people want to be in these days.

    是大家喜歡居住的地方

  • So the best economic strategy

    所以最佳經濟策略城市

  • you can have as a city

    對於城市而言

  • is not the old way of trying to attract corporations

    不是吸引企業那種老套

  • and trying to have a biotech cluster

    不是要建立生技園區

  • or a medical cluster,

    或醫療園區

  • or an aerospace cluster,

    或航太園區

  • but to become a place where people want to be.

    而是要成為宜居的城市

  • And millennials, certainly, these engines of entrepreneurship,

    無疑是創業引擎的千禧世代

  • 64 percent of whom decide first

    64%會先決定

  • where they want to live,

    要住在哪裡

  • then they move there, then they look for a job,

    他們會先搬過去,再找工作

  • they will come to your city.

    宜居的城市近悅遠來

  • The health argument is a scary one,

    健康方面的論點就可怕了

  • and you've probably heard part of this argument before.

    你們可能略知一二

  • Again, back in the '70s, a lot's changed since then,

    再回到和現在非常不同的1970年代

  • back in the '70s, one in 10 Americans was obese.

    那個年代有一成的美國人過胖

  • Now one out of three Americans is obese,

    如今美國人三分之一過胖

  • and a second third of the population is overweight.

    另外三分之一過重

  • Twenty-five percent of young men

    二成五的年輕男性

  • and 40 percent of young women are too heavy

    以及四成的女性因為過重

  • to enlist in our own military forces.

    不符合軍隊入伍標準

  • According to the Center for Disease Control,

    根據美國疾病管制中心

  • fully one third of all children born after 2000

    2000年以後出生的兒童

  • will get diabetes.

    三成會得糖尿病

  • We have the first generation of children in America

    這一代的孩子會創下首例

  • who are predicted to live shorter lives than their parents.

    平均壽命預計會低於上一代

  • I believe that this American healthcare crisis

    我認為這個美國的保健危機

  • that we've all heard about

    我們都聽說過的危機

  • is an urban design crisis,

    是城市設計的危機

  • and that the design of our cities lies at the cure.

    城市設計才是治癒的關鍵

  • Because we've talked a long time about diet,

    我們長期以來關注飲食

  • and we know that diet impacts weight,

    我們明白飲食影響體重

  • and weight of course impacts health.

    體重自然會影響健康

  • But we've only started talking about inactivity,

    但是我們才開始探討少活動

  • and how inactivity born of our landscape,

    以及造成少活動的地景環境

  • inactivity that comes from the fact that we live

    我們居住的環境

  • in a place where there is no longer any such thing

    讓走路的功用大不如前

  • as a useful walk, is driving our weight up.

    我們的體重因而上升

  • And we finally have the studies,

    現在終於有了相關研究

  • one in Britain called "Gluttony versus sloth"

    英國的研究「好吃與懶做對比」

  • that tracked weight against diet

    追蹤飲食和體重的關係

  • and tracked weight against inactivity,

    以及活動量和體重的關係

  • and found a much higher, stronger correlation

    發現相關度更高的

  • between the latter two.

    是活動量和體重

  • Dr. James Levine at, in this case,

    詹姆斯.萊文 (James Levine) 醫生

  • the aptly-named Mayo Clinic

    現任職於馬約(Mayo,諧音美乃滋)醫學中心

  • put his test subjects in electronic underwear,

    他讓實驗對象穿上電子內衣

  • held their diet steady,

    保持定量的飲食

  • and then started pumping the calories in.

    然後開始增加熱量

  • Some people gained weight,

    有些人開始變重

  • some people didn't gain weight.

    有些人體重沒增加

  • Expecting some metabolic or DNA factor at work,

    研究人員預測是代謝或遺傳因素

  • they were shocked to learn that the only difference

    結果卻令他們大吃一驚

  • between the subjects that they could figure out

    他們找出的唯一差別因素

  • was the amount they were moving,

    是實驗對象的活動量

  • and that in fact those who gained weight

    體重增加的人

  • were sitting, on average, two hours more per day

    比沒增重者每天平均

  • than those who didn't.

    多坐兩小時

  • So we have these studies that tie

    我們已有研究指出

  • weight to inactivity, but even more,

    體重和活動量有關,但不僅如此

  • we now have studies that tie weight to where you live.

    有研究顯示,跟你住哪裡也有關

  • Do you live in a more walkable city

    你是住在適宜步行的城市

  • or do you live in a less walkable city,

    還是住在走路不便的城市

  • or where in your city do you live?

    在城市的哪個區也有關係

  • In San Diego, they used Walk Score --

    聖地牙哥使用了「步行分數」(Walk Score)——

  • Walk Score rates every address in America

    「步行分數」評估美國的每個住址

  • and soon the world

    即將擴及全球

  • in terms of how walkable it is --

    根據適宜步行的程度評分——

  • they used Walk Score to designate more walkable neighborhoods

    聖地牙哥用「步行分數」區分鄰里

  • and less walkable neighborhoods.

    是否適宜步行

  • Well guess what? If you lived in a more walkable neighborhood,

    你知道嗎?住在適合走路的鄰里

  • you were 35 percent likely to be overweight.

    過重的機率是35%

  • If you lived in a less walkable neighborhood,

    住在較不適合走路的鄰里

  • you were 60 percent likely to be overweight.

    過重的機率則是60%

  • So we have study after study now

    已有接二連三的研究

  • that's tying where you live

    指出居住的地點

  • to your health, particularly as in America,

    和你的健康息息相關,尤其在美國

  • the biggest health crisis we have is this one

    我們健康的最大危機

  • that's stemming from environmental-induced inactivity.

    來自居住環境造成的活動量減少

  • And I learned a new word last week.

    我上週學到了一個新詞

  • They call these neighborhoods "obesageneric."

    這種鄰里叫做「肥胖區」(obesageneric)

  • I may have that wrong, but you get the idea.

    我可能沒拼對,但意思你們懂

  • Now that's one thing, of course.

    有件事一定要提

  • Briefly mentioning, we have an asthma epidemic

    簡而言之,就是氣喘病

  • in this country.

    在美國流行

  • You probably haven't thought that much about it.

    你可能沒注意到

  • Fourteen Americans die each day from asthma,

    每天有14個美國人死於氣喘病

  • three times what it was in the '90s,

    人數是1990年代的三倍

  • and it's almost all coming from car exhaust.

    肇因幾乎全部來自汽車的廢氣

  • American pollution does not come

    美國的污染不再來自工廠

  • from factories anymore, it comes from tailpipes,

    而是來自汽車的排氣管

  • and the amount that people are driving in your city,

    決定於城市人開車的多寡

  • your urban VMT, is a good prediction

    城市開車的里程數

  • of the asthma problems in your city.

    是氣喘問題的良好指標

  • And then finally, in terms of driving,

    關於開車還有一件事

  • there's the issue of the single-largest killer

    殺害健康成人的最大兇手

  • of healthy adults, and one of the largest killers

    殺害所有人的最大兇手之一

  • of all people, is car crashes.

    就是車禍

  • And we take car crashes for granted.

    我們對車禍習以為常

  • We figure it's a natural risk

    我們認為開車

  • of being on the road.

    自然會有風險