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  • you know, one of the big questions I guess I wanted to start off and just ask you about is you know, we keep hearing about this sage group of, you know, advisers to the prime minister, and they're all these scientific advisers.

    你知道,其中一個大問題 我想我想開始了,只是問你 是你知道,我們一直聽到這個賢者的組, 你知道,顧問總理, 他們是所有這些科學顧問。

  • And I sat back today and thought, Why isn't there an economist like you on that committee?

    我今天坐下來想,為什麼那個委員會里沒有你這樣的經濟學家?

  • Uh, to advise on the ramifications of the economy, which is so massive, So just curious for your thoughts right away to that question.

    嗯,建議對經濟的影響, 這是如此巨大, 所以只是好奇你的想法 馬上這個問題。

  • Well, you're right that there aren't There aren't economists.

    你說的沒錯,沒有經濟學家。

  • I think they are largely epidemiologists who have, you know, enormous experience off pandemics on how they evolve and spread out over time.

    我認為他們主要是流行病學家 他們有豐富的經驗,你知道的,在流行病如何演變和隨著時間的推移傳播。

  • On there's the very eminent people on it.

    上有很傑出的人在上面。

  • But you rightly say no economists.

    但你說的沒錯,沒有經濟學家。

  • And their focus, I think, is very much on the infection.

    而他們的重點,我想,是非常多的感染。

  • How it's spreading, what you can do to try and reduce the infection rate on minimize deaths directly from covert, um, Onda.

    它是如何傳播的,你可以做什麼 嘗試和減少感染率 最大限度地減少死亡 直接從祕密,嗯,Onda。

  • In some ways, that's a natural thing, that you want the scientists to give you the best view on the spread of the infection.

    在某種程度上,這是一個自然的事情,你希望科學家給你最好的觀點,對感染的傳播。

  • But I think when it comes to actually making policy decisions, you would absolutely want the government also to have analysis, often advice on what are, if you like the side effects off policies that might be very effective in reducing the spread of the virus on perhaps minimizing likely future debt.

    但我認為,當涉及到實際的政策決策時,你絕對希望政府也能進行分析,經常建議什麼是,如果你喜歡的政策的副作用,這可能是非常有效的,以減少病毒的傳播,也許最大限度地減少可能的未來債務。

  • One of the side effects off that some of which are health side effects some which are economic side effects, which in turn will have health impacts down the road on, I suppose, in an ideal world stage, would do its analysis.

    其中的一個副作用關,有些是健康的副作用有些是經濟的副作用,這反過來又會對健康產生影響,我想,在一個理想的世界舞臺上,會做它的分析。

  • And there would be, if you like, a sort of corresponding body that would be assessing the wider, longer term economic and health side effects off policies designed to control infection.

    如果你願意的話,會有一個相應的機構來評估更廣泛,更長期的經濟和健康副作用,以控制感染的政策。

  • I think to some extent, that is happening, but it's not happening in as formal away as the sage procedure.

    我認為在某種程度上,這種情況正在發生,但它並沒有像聖人程序那樣正式地發生。

  • I think it's perhaps generating something of an imbalance in the kind of information that's feeding into government decisions.

    我認為這或許是產生了一些不平衡的資訊,這些資訊被輸入到政府的決策中。

  • Yeah, I agree.

    是的,我同意。

  • I think at first when people were trying to quantify the lock down, you know, in monetary terms, people thought Okay, that's very callous.

    我想一開始,當人們試圖量化 鎖定,你知道,在貨幣方面, 人們認為好吧,這是非常冷酷。

  • We need to think about saving lives, but as this extends longer and longer, you know, people keep talking about how the lockdowns gonna affect our mental health about how it's gonna affect the economy.

    我們需要考慮拯救生命, 但隨著時間越來越長, 你知道,人們一直在談論如何鎖定 會影響我們的心理健康 關於如何它會影響經濟。

  • Long term, I think.

    我想,長期的。

  • Lord Rose, a former chairman of Marks and Spencer, recently came out and said, For every day we're locked down, it's going to take 2 to 3 weeks to recover.

    馬莎百貨前董事長羅斯勳爵最近出來說,我們每被鎖定一天,就要花2到3周時間來恢復。

  • Andi.

    安迪

  • I think it's important to these conversations, but it's hard to quantify it and get people to really understand the costs of a lock down, isn't it?

    我認為這對這些對話很重要,但很難量化它,讓人們真正理解鎖定的成本,不是嗎?

  • I think it is very challenging to quantify, but I think the one thing we do know is that very restrictive policies kept in place for many, many weeks, months indeed, on end are likely to have very substantial knock on effects.

    我認為要量化是非常具有挑戰性的,但我認為我們確實知道的一件事是,限制性很強的政策持續許多、許多星期、甚至幾個月,很可能會產生非常大的連鎖反應。

  • Negative knock on effects on the wider economy, on also on mental health.

    對更廣泛的經濟和心理健康產生負面影響。

  • Andi other health issues a swell.

    安迪其他健康問題一腫。

  • So whilst it's absolutely difficult to quantify these things on, there's always an element of counterfactual.

    所以,雖然這些東西絕對難以量化,但總是有反事實的因素。

  • Well, what would people have done if the government didn't impose the restrictions?

    那麼,如果政府不加以限制,人們會怎麼做呢?

  • Wouldn't they have self imposed restrictions anyway?

    反正他們不會有自我限制嗎?

  • So there's there's very difficult issues about counterfactual.

    所以有關於反事實的問題是非常困難的。

  • What would have happened if But I think to not put the effort into trying understanding those knock on effect would itself likely lead to misguided policies?

    但我認為,如果不花力氣去嘗試瞭解這些連鎖反應,本身就很可能導致錯誤的政策,會發生什麼?

you know, one of the big questions I guess I wanted to start off and just ask you about is you know, we keep hearing about this sage group of, you know, advisers to the prime minister, and they're all these scientific advisers.

你知道,其中一個大問題 我想我想開始了,只是問你 是你知道,我們一直聽到這個賢者的組, 你知道,顧問總理, 他們是所有這些科學顧問。

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A2 初級 中文 副作用 量化 政策 健康 經濟學家 認為

鎖定經濟成本:長期鎖定會給英國帶來怎樣的代價--大衛-邁爾斯教授。 (LOCKDOWN ECONOMIC COST: How A Long-Term Lockdown Could Cost The UK - Professor David Miles)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2020 年 11 月 18 日
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