Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

    譯者: Hsin-Hui Lin 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

  • (Beeps)

    (嗶嗶聲)

  • [Countdown]

    [倒數計時]

  • (Clapboard claps)

    (場記板打板)

  • Ten years is a long time for us humans on earth.

    對地球上的我們來說,十年很長。

  • Ten turns around the sun.

    我們繞太陽轉十圈。

  • When I was on the TED stage a decade ago,

    十年前,我在 TED 演講時,

  • I talked about planetary boundaries

    我談論了「地球承載界限」,

  • that keep our planet in a state that allowed humanity to prosper.

    它能讓人類在地球上維持昌盛的狀態。

  • The main point is that once you transgress one,

    其重點在於, 一旦超越了一項承載界限,

  • the risks start multiplying.

    風險便開始大幅增加。

  • The planetary boundaries are all deeply connected,

    每項地球承載界線都息息相關,

  • but climate, alongside biodiversity, are core boundaries.

    其中以氣候、生物多樣性為核心,

  • They impact on all others.

    進而影響其他承載界線。

  • Back then we really thought we had more time.

    那個時候,我們真的以為還有很多時間。

  • The warning lights were on, absolutely,

    警示燈的確是亮了,

  • but no unstoppable change had been triggered.

    但不可挽回的變化尚未觸發。

  • Since my talk, we have increasing evidence

    自從我上次的演講, 有越來越多證據顯示

  • that we are rapidly moving away

    我們正在加速遠離

  • from the safe operating space for humanity on earth.

    人類在地球上所能安全運作的空間。

  • Climate has reached a global crisis point.

    氣候已經到達全球危機的程度。

  • We have now had 10 years of record-breaking climate extremes:

    我們已經連續十年 出現破記錄的極端氣候,

  • fires blaze in Australia, Siberia, California and the Amazon,

    烈火在澳洲、西伯利亞、 加州、亞馬遜蔓延;

  • floods in China, Bangladesh and India.

    洪水在中國、孟加拉、印度肆虐。

  • We're now enduring heat waves across the entire northern hemisphere.

    如今整個北半球也正遭受熱浪襲擊。

  • We risk crossing tipping points

    我們就快要跨過那個臨界點;

  • that shift the planet from being our best resilient friend,

    原本地球用超強復原能力

  • dampening our impacts,

    幫我們減緩氣候衝擊,

  • to start working against us, amplifying the heat.

    現在變成跟我們作對,升高氣溫。

  • For the first time, we are forced to consider the real risk

    這是我們第一次被逼著正視

  • of destabilizing the entire planet.

    破壞整個星球平衡所帶來的真正風險。

  • Our children can see this.

    我們的下一代都意識到了。

  • They are walking out of school to demand action,

    他們走出學校,要求有所行動,

  • looking with disbelief at our inability to deviate away

    對我們無能為力帶著他們 遠離潛在的災難風險,

  • from potentially catastrophic risks.

    他們感到不可置信。

  • The next 10 years, to 2030,

    到 2030 年的下個十年內,

  • must see the most profound transformation the world has ever known.

    這個世界一定會經歷史上最嚴峻的轉變

  • This is our mission.

    這是我們的使命。

  • This is the countdown.

    這是倒數計時。

  • (Clock ticks)

    (時鐘滴答響)

  • When my scientific colleagues summarized, about a decade ago,

    一開始,大約十年前,

  • for the first time,

    我的科學家同儕當時的結論是,

  • the state of knowledge on climate tipping points,

    從目前對氣候臨界點的認知看來,

  • just one place had strong evidence that it was on a serious downward spiral.

    只有一個地方有強烈證據顯示 情勢在迅速惡化,

  • Arctic sea ice. (Water sounds)

    那就是北極海冰層; (水聲)

  • Other tipping points were long way off --

    其他的臨界點都還離我們很遠——

  • 50 or 100 turns around the sun.

    還要再繞太陽 50 或 100 圈。

  • Just last year we revisited these systems,

    但就在去年,我們重新審視這些系統,

  • and I got the shock of my career.

    我感到職涯中前所未有的震驚:

  • We are only a few decades away from an Arctic without sea ice in summer.

    再幾十年,北極的夏天就不會有海冰。

  • In Siberia, permafrost is now thawing at dramatic scales.

    現在,西伯利亞永凍層 正以驚人速度融化;

  • Greenland is losing trillions of tons of ice

    格陵蘭流失數兆噸的冰,

  • and may be approaching a tipping point.

    可能就快接近其臨界點;

  • The great forests of the North

    北方森林大火,

  • are burning with plumes of smoke the size of Europe.

    產生的煙霧範圍有歐洲大陸之大;

  • The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing.

    大西洋洋流循環變慢;

  • The Amazon rainforest is weakening

    亞馬遜雨林正在衰退,

  • and may start emitting carbon within 15 years.

    十五年內可能開始排碳;

  • Half of the coral of the Great Barrier Reef has died.

    大堡礁有半數珊瑚已經死亡;

  • West Antarctica may have crossed the tipping point already today.

    現在,西南極冰層 可能早已跨越臨界點。

  • And now, the most solid of glaciers on earth, East Antarctica,

    如今,全世界最堅固冰河, 東南極大陸,

  • parts of it are becoming unstable.

    有部份也開始變得不穩定。

  • Nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems that regulate climate are now on the move,

    十五大調節氣候的生物物理系統中,

  • showing worrying signs of decline

    有九個正在變動,出現令人憂心的徵兆,

  • and potentially approaching tipping points.

    顯示它們正在衰退並且逼近臨界點。

  • Tipping points bring three threats.

    臨界點會帶來三項威脅:

  • First, sea level rise.

    第一、海平面上升。

  • We can already expect up to one meter this century.

    在本世紀已經可以預期會上升一公尺,

  • This will endanger the homes of 200 million people.

    兩億人的家園將受到威脅。

  • But when we add the melting ice from Antarctica and Greenland

    但如果再加上南極及格陵蘭的融冰,

  • into the equation,

    則將可能上看兩公尺,

  • this might lead to a two meter rise.

    而且不會停下來,只會越來越糟。

  • But it won't stop there, it will keep on getting worse.

    其次,

  • Second, if our carbon stores like permafrost and forest

    如果永凍層和森林等 所貯存的碳開始釋出,

  • flip to belching carbon,

    穩定溫度的工作將會變得非常困難。

  • then this makes the job of stabilizing temperatures so much harder.

    第三、這些系統 就像骨牌一樣彼此關聯,

  • And third, these systems are all linked like dominoes:

    其中一個到了臨界點, 下一個也不遠了。

  • If you cross one tipping point, you lurch closer to others.

    讓我們停一下,看看目前的狀況。

  • Let's stop for a moment and look at where we are.

    我們的文明開創於穩定氣候、

  • The foundation of our civilization is a stable climate

    生物多樣性豐富的環境之下。

  • and a rich diversity of life.

    每件事物都是架構在這個基礎上。

  • Everything, I mean everything, is based on this.

    文明社會在宜居帶之中興盛:

  • Civilization has thrived in a Goldilocks zone:

    既不太熱、也不太冷。

  • not too hot, not too cold.

    從上次冰河期以來, 我們維持了一萬年的宜居狀態。

  • This is what we have had for 10,000 years since we left the last ice age.

    讓我們把時間軸拉長一點。

  • Let's zoom out a little here.

    有三百萬年的時間,

  • Three million years --

    溫度從沒打破攝氏 2 度的上限。

  • temperatures have never broken through the two degrees Celsius limit.

    地球自行調節的範圍很窄:

  • Earth has self-regulated within a very narrow range

    上升攝氏 2 度,進入暖和的間冰期;

  • of plus two degrees in a warm interglacial,

    下降攝氏 4 度,則是大冰河時期。

  • minus four degrees, deep ice age.

    現在,我們走的路徑

  • Now, we are following a path

    可能讓我們在三代內

  • that would take us to a three to four degree world

    面臨上升攝氏 3 到 4 度的世界。

  • in just three generations.

    我們可能會倒轉氣候時鐘 到不只是一、兩百萬年前,

  • We would be rewinding the climate clock, not one million, not two million,

    而是五百萬到一千萬年前。

  • but five to 10 million years.

    我們正在朝高溫溫室地球前進。

  • We are drifting towards hot-house earth.

    溫度每上升一度,

  • For each one degree rise,

    就會有十億人被迫居住在 現今標準認定不適居的地方。

  • one billion people will be forced to live in conditions

    這不是氣候危機,是星球危機。

  • that we today largely consider uninhabitable.

    我怕的不是 2030 年 1 月 1 號 地球會突然墜落懸崖;

  • This is not a climate emergency, it is a planetary emergency.

    我怕的是我們按下地球系統 不可挽回的按鈕。

  • My fear is not that Earth will fall over a cliff

    接下來十年所發生的事,

  • on the 1st of January, 2030.

    可能將會決定 我們交給子孫怎樣的地球。

  • My fear is that we press unstoppable buttons in the Earth system.

    他們必然會驚慌失措。

  • What happens in the next 10 years

    我們必須嚴陣以待,設法穩定地球。

  • will likely determine the state of the planet we hand over

    將會有兩道防線引導我們 度過這場大變動:

  • for future generations.

    第一道防線是科學。

  • Our children have every reason to be alarmed.

    這裡有個新的永續地球方程式:

  • We need to get serious about stabilizing our planet.

    「地球承載界線」加「全球公域」

  • Two frontiers will guide this transformation.

    等於「地球管理」。

  • The first one is in science.

    我們需要為人類找到一條安全走廊、

  • Here's a new equation for a sustainable planet:

    讓全民成為整個星球的管理員,

  • planetary boundaries plus global commons

    不為保護地球, 而是為全人類提供更好的未來。

  • equals planetary stewardship.

    第二道防線是社會。

  • We need to a safe corridor for humanity

    我們需要建構在福祉之上的 經濟新思維;

  • to allow us all to become stewards of the entire planet,

    我們需要為全球公域、 公司行號以及所有城市

  • not to save the planet but to provide a good future for all people.

    提供以科學為基礎的目標。

  • And the second frontier is in society.

    首要任務就是在 2030 前 將全球碳排放量減半,

  • We need a new economic logic based on well-being.

    並在 2050 以前達成淨零排放。

  • We are now in a position to provide science-based targets

    這表示跟生活相關的所有系統 都必須是零碳排放:

  • for all global commons for all companies and cities in the world.

    能源、產業、交通、建築。

  • First task, we need to cut global emissions by half by 2030

    化石燃料的時代已經結束。

  • and reach net-zero by 2050 or sooner.

    我們必須將原是碳排放源的農業

  • This means decarbonizing the big systems that run our lives:

    轉型成碳貯存庫;

  • energy, industry, transport, buildings.

    最緊急的是,我們必須保護海洋和土地,

  • The fossil fuel era is over.

    其中的生態系統足以吸收 地球總排放量的一半。

  • We need to transform agriculture from a source of emissions

    好消息是,我們可以做得到。

  • to a store of carbon,

    我們有知識、科技,

  • and critically, we must protect our oceans and land,

    我們也知道這樣做對社會、經濟都好。

  • the natural ecosystems that absorb half of our emissions.

    當我們成功時,我們都可以 深吸一口清新的空氣、

  • The good news is, we can do this.

    展開嶄新的健康生活、

  • We have the knowledge. We have the technology.

    在宜居城市中從事健全的經濟活動。

  • We know it makes social and economic sense.

    我們都在這場環繞太陽的共同旅途上。

  • And when we succeed, we can all take lungfuls of fresh air.

    這裡是我們唯一的家。

  • We will be saying hello to healthy lifestyles

    而我們的任務是: 守住我們子孫的未來。

  • and resilient economies in livable cities.

    謝謝。

  • We are all on this journey around the sun together.

    (燈開關切換聲)

  • This is our only home.

  • This is our mission: to protect our children's future.

  • Thank you.

  • (Lights click off)

Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

譯者: Hsin-Hui Lin 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

B1 中級 中文 地球 氣候 承載 攝氏 界線 穩定

10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | Johan Rockström

  • 3 0
    林宜悉 發佈於 2020 年 11 月 02 日
影片單字