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  • Are you a hedgehog or a fox?

    你是刺蝟還是狐狸?

  • Are you able to deeply focus on one specific activity, such as rolling up in a spiky ball and sleeping through the winter?

    你是否能夠深深地專注於一項具體的活動,如捲起成尖球睡過冬?

  • Or are you alert to changing circumstances and keep your eyes and ears open to new threats and opportunities?

    還是對身邊周遭的變化保有警覺,並對新的威脅和機會留心。

  • My name's David Spiegelhalter, and I'm a statistician and fascinated by the problems of risk and prediction.

    我的名字叫大衛.史匹格哈特爾,我是一個統計學家,且著迷於風險和預測的問題。

  • Philosopher Isaiah Berlin wrote a famous essay, The Hedgehog and the Fox, after a famous poem by the Greek poet, Archilochus, who said " The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."

    哲學家以撒.柏林寫過一篇著名的文章—刺蝟和狐狸,在希臘詩人亞基羅古斯的一首著名詩句中說:「狐狸知道很多事情,刺蝟知道一件重要的事。」

  • Think of the people you know, either privately or public figures.

    想想你認識的人,無論是私底下的還是公眾人物。

  • Are they hedgehogs, with one overarching way of looking at the world, through which they interpret all around them?

    他們是以一種整體性的方式看待世界,並通過它們來解讀身邊一切的刺蝟嗎?

  • Or are they foxes, with no big principles of philosophy, who muddle along adapting to what turns up and changing their minds along the way?

    還是,他們是沒有大哲學原則、隨遇而安,並沿途改變想法的狐狸?

  • Politicians, of course, tend to be hedgehogs.

    政治家通常往往是刺蝟。

  • But some are more pragmatic and foxy than others.

    但有些人比其他人更務實、更狡猾。

  • Now, who would you trust most to make predictions about the future?

    現在,你最相信誰能對未來做出預測?

  • A confident hedgehog or an uncertain and vacillating fox?

    是充滿自信的刺蝟還是充滿不確定性、猶豫不決的狐狸?

  • This was put to the test in a long series of experiments by political scientist, Philip Tetlock, who studied 284 experts, making 28,000 predictions about long term events.

    這在政治學家菲利浦.泰特洛克一系列漫長的實驗中得到了驗證,他研究了 284 名專家,進行了多達 28000 次的預測。

  • Tetlock was looking at who predicted best.

    泰特洛克在看誰能預測的最好。

  • And mainly it made no difference whether the forecaster was an optimist or a pessimist, conservative or liberal.

    而且這主要跟預測者樂觀或悲觀、保守或自由沒有區別。

  • The only consistent pattern was how they thought, not what they thought.

    唯一符合的模式是他們怎麼想,而不是他們在想什麼。

  • He found that foxes were much better at predicting than were hedgehogs.

    他發現狐狸的預測能力比刺蝟強得多。

  • And hedgehogs were particularly poor at subjects at which they were experts.

    刺猬在他們擅長的科目上,表現特別差。

  • They were just too confident in their forecasts.

    他們只是對自己的預測太過自信。

  • A classic hedgehog was the historian Arnold Toynbee, who in 1947 was declared TIME magazine's Man of the Year.

    歷史學家阿諾爾德.湯因比是典型的刺蝟,他在 1947 年被《時代》雜誌宣佈為年度人物。

  • Others wrote that he was the most renowned scholar in the world or a universal sage, largely because his great work, A Study of History, spoke to the biggest fear of the time that nuclear weapons were going to end civilization.

    其他人寫道,他是全世界最著名的學者或稱眾所皆知的智者,主要是因他的著作《歷史研究》聞明,書中闡述當時最令人恐懼的是核武器將終結文明。

  • Toynbee made the confident and comforting prediction that this wouldn't happen.

    湯因比做出了自信而又令人欣慰的預測:這是不會發生的。

  • Because it was an opposition to his self-proclaimed scientific theory of history.

    因為這是與他自稱為科學的歷史理論完全相反。

  • Toynbee thought that Western civilization wasn't nearly done yet, because it hadn't reached the stage of universal government and a religious renaissance.

    湯因比認為西方文明還不夠完整,因為它還沒有經歷過共同的政府和宗教復興的階段。

  • All 23 civilizations he had studied had done so before they collapsed, and so would the West.

    他研究的 23 個文明在崩塌之前都是如此,西方也會如此。

  • He thought the golden age of universal government and religious observance would start around the year 2000.

    他認為共同政府和宗教儀式的黃金時代將在 2000 年左右開始。

  • His peers were skeptical and they were right.

    他的同儕們都持懷疑態度,而他們是對的。

  • Today Toynbee is hardly remembered, except perhaps as a classic hedgehog.

    今天,幾乎沒有人記得湯因比,除了可能是因為他是個經典的刺蝟。

  • In his book, Future Babble, Dan Gardner identifies three characteristics of good forecasters.

    在他的著作 Future Babble 中,丹‧賈德納指出了優秀預測者的三個特點。

  • Number one: aggregation.

    第一:聚合。

  • They use multiple sources of information, are open to new knowledge and are happy to work in teams.

    他們使用多種資訊來源、樂於接受新知識,也樂於在團隊中工作。

  • Number two: metacognition.

    第二條:元認知。

  • They have an insight into how they think and the biases they might have, such as seeking evidence that simply confirms pre-set ideas.

    他們對自己的思維方式和可能存在的偏見都有深刻見解,例如尋求簡單證實預設想法的證據。

  • Number three: humility.

    第三條:謙虛。

  • They have a willingness to acknowledge uncertainty, admit errors and change their minds.

    他們願意面對不確定性、承認錯誤,並加以改正它。

  • Rather than saying categorically what is going to happen, they are only prepared to give probabilities for future events.

    而不是斬釘截鐵地說要發生什麼,他們只能算出未來事件發生的概率。

  • Acknowledging, in the words of that great sage, Donald Rumsfeld, both the known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

    關於承認,套用偉大的聖人唐納.倫斯斐說的話:既有已知的未知數,也有未知的未知數。

  • So when someone is telling you what is in store for you, the country, the world, just ask yourself, are they a hedgehog or a fox?

    所以當別人預測你的、國家的或世界的未來時,你得問問自己,他們是刺蝟還是狐狸?

Are you a hedgehog or a fox?

你是刺蝟還是狐狸?

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    Summer 發佈於 2020 年 11 月 01 日
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