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  • Its often called the greatest financial crisis in the history of the United States because

    它通常被稱為美國曆史上最大的金融危機,因為......。

  • it lasted ten years and crashed the entire economy.

    它持續了十年,使整個經濟崩潰。

  • The American leadership tried everything to save the economy but nothing worked out, every

    美國領導層想盡一切辦法來挽救經濟,但都沒有成功,每一個

  • solution proved to be ineffective in the face of such a crisis, and the only thing that

    事實證明,面對這樣的危機,這個解決方案是無效的,唯一的辦法是,將其作為一種新的解決方案。

  • could save the economy was the deadliest war in human history (WW2).

    能拯救經濟的是人類歷史上最致命的戰爭(二戰)。

  • Its July of the year 1914, world war one breaks up, and the entire European continent is in

    1914年7月,第一次世界大戰爆發了,整個歐洲大陸都陷入了困境。

  • conflict, but the war slowly spreads to the rest of the world.

    衝突,但戰爭慢慢蔓延到世界其他地區。

  • Everyone is eager to win, but unfortunately, supplies are limited especially food.

    每個人都渴望勝利,但不幸的是,物資有限,尤其是食物。

  • So the allies turn to the United States for help, since it wasn't directly affected

    所以盟國向美國求救,因為它沒有受到直接影響。

  • by the war and had the economic power to do that.

    由戰爭,並有經濟實力做到這一點。

  • War by no means is good, but it brought a period of economic prosperity to the United

    戰爭絕非好事,但它給美國帶來了一段經濟繁榮的時期。

  • States.

    國家:

  • The demand for equipment, weapons, wheat was at an all-time high, and no one else could

    裝備、武器、小麥的需求量空前高漲,沒有人可以

  • fill that gap except the US.

    填補了這一空白,除了美國。

  • If you were a farmer, you could produce as much wheat as you wanted and could sell it

    如果你是一個農民,你可以生產出你想要的小麥,並且可以賣掉它

  • easily at a high price.

    容易以高價。

  • Since countries with troops at the battlefield had to take any measures to win the war.

    由於在戰場上有軍隊的國家必須採取任何措施來贏得戰爭。

  • By the end of the war, the United States also entered the game which further increased the

    到了戰爭結束後,美國也加入了這場遊戲,這進一步增加了。

  • demand since soldiers needed equipment and food.

    需求,因為阿兵哥需要裝備和食物。

  • It was probably the best time to invest since the economy was booming and everyone was making

    這可能是最好的投資時機,因為經濟蓬勃發展,每個人都在賺錢。

  • money.

    錢。

  • Even though the war has ended by 1918.

    儘管到1918年戰爭已經結束。

  • The demand for American goods especially wheat didn't fall because the entire world was

    對美國商品尤其是小麥的需求並沒有下降,因為整個世界都是

  • still recovering.

    還在恢復中。

  • When farmers realized that, they began taking huge loans to buy more land and equipment

    當農民意識到這一點後,他們開始大量貸款購買更多的土地和設備。

  • to farm more wheat.

    來種植更多的小麥。

  • Which led the real estate prices to grow.

    從而導致房地產價格的增長。

  • That pushed people to buy even more lands hoping to sell it later for a higher price.

    這就促使人們購買更多的土地,希望以後能以更高的價格出售。

  • The same thing was happening to every other industry.

    同樣的事情發生在其他每個行業。

  • In fact, many companies emerged that only existed on paper but didn't even have the

    事實上,很多公司的出現,只是存在於紙面上,但卻根本不具備

  • equipment or land because everyone was throwing money into the stock market hoping to make

    設備或土地,因為每個人都把錢投進股市,希望能賺取

  • a fortune, which further escalated the prices.

    一筆錢,使價格進一步攀升。

  • Would you really stand aside and watch how your neighbors make money while you get nothing.

    你真的會站在一旁看著鄰居怎麼賺錢,而你卻什麼都沒有得到。

  • Even foreign countries started investing in the united states hoping to make a buck.

    甚至外國也開始在美國投資,希望能賺一筆。

  • I guess you can already see the flow.

    我想你已經可以看到流程了。

  • Many companies were overpriced since most of these investments were based on speculations.

    許多公司的價格過高,因為這些投資大多是基於投機。

  • Nonetheless, that didn't stop people from investing.

    儘管如此,這並沒有阻止人們投資的腳步。

  • People had faith in the economy.

    人們對經濟有信心。

  • When things are good, you start thinking that it's going to be like that forever.

    當事情好的時候,你就會開始想,會永遠這樣。

  • What seems so obvious today wasn't obvious then.

    今天看來很明顯的事情,在當時並不明顯。

  • However, When Europe started recovering, the demand for American goods fell, especially

    然而,當歐洲開始復甦時,對美國商品的需求下降了,特別是在歐洲,美國商品的需求下降了。

  • for wheat, since other counties began to grow wheat as well.

    為小麥,因為其他縣也開始種植小麥。

  • In August of 1929, France and Italy were bragging of a magnificent harvest, while the US had

    1929年8月,法國和意大利都在吹噓自己的豐收,而美國已經

  • millions of bushels of wheat on the shelves that they couldn't sell.

    上百萬蒲式耳的小麥在貨架上,他們無法出售。

  • This oversupply threatened to drive the prices down.

    這種供過於求的情況有可能使價格下降。

  • It caused a little panic in the stock market but didn't cause anything significant.

    這引起了股市的一點恐慌,但並沒有造成什麼重大的影響。

  • A month later, the wheat prices decreased from $1.49 per bushel to $1.31 because of

    一個月後,小麥價格從每蒲式耳1.49美元降至1.31美元,原因是

  • the oversupply.

    的供過於求。

  • It was devastating news, the stock market plummeted.

    這是一個毀滅性的消息,股市暴跌。

  • People got frightened and began to sell their stocks to cash out before the stock market

    人們害怕了,開始在股市之前賣出股票套現。

  • declines further.

    進一步下降。

  • That only made the situation worse crashing the market even more.

    這隻會讓情況變得更糟,使市場更加崩潰。

  • That day, October 29th went down in history as Black Tuesday.

    10月29日這一天,被載入史冊的是黑色星期二。

  • However, that was just the beginning.

    然而,這僅僅是個開始。

  • Since wheat prices were falling, farmers couldn't pay back their debts, that created pressure

    由於小麥價格下跌,農民無力償還債務,這就造成了壓力。

  • on the banks.

    岸上。

  • The panic has already spread to the entire country, and all that people cared about was

    恐慌已經蔓延到了整個國家,人們關心的只是

  • cash, so they rushed to the Banks for their savings.

    現金,所以他們趕緊到銀行去存錢。

  • Unfortunately, banks couldn't pay back their obligations since their borrowers weren't

    不幸的是,銀行無法償還他們的債務,因為他們的借款人沒有。

  • able to pay them back their debts so they had to shut down one after one.

    能夠償還他們的債務,所以他們不得不一個接一個地關閉。

  • In just ten months, 744 banks failed.

    僅僅十個月,就有744家銀行倒閉。

  • It didn't matter whether you had a good or bad business, people lost faith in the market,

    不管你的生意是好是壞,人們對市場失去了信心。

  • and all that mattered was to minimize the losses.

    而最重要的是把損失降到最低。

  • As a result of the that, even good legit business started declaring bankruptcy.

    結果,連好的合法企業也開始宣佈破產。

  • 3.8

    3.8

  • The news spread to Europe and caused panic over there since many European countries have

    這個消息傳到了歐洲,引起了歐洲的恐慌,因為很多歐洲國家都已

  • invested heavily in the United States.

    在美國大量投資。

  • The panic caused the same thing over there, and soon the entire world was facing a great

    恐慌引起了那邊同樣的事情,很快整個世界就面臨著巨大的

  • depression.

    抑鬱症。

  • Although this crisis happened almost a hundred years ago, financial crises, in general, are

    雖然這次危機發生在近百年前,但一般來說,金融危機是

  • pretty similar, including the dot-com bubble of the 2008 crash.

    相當相似,包括2008年股災的網絡保麗龍。

  • And the next global recession is going to take place in a very similar way.

    而下一次全球經濟衰退將以非常相似的方式發生。

  • Nobody really knows for sure how and when exactly its going to start but we have multiple

    沒有人真正知道它到底是如何和何時開始的,但我們有多個。

  • bubbles that are big enough to burst at any moment such as student loans, healthcare and

    保麗龍大到隨時都會破滅,比如學生貸款、醫療服務和

  • most important the stock market itself.

    最重要的是股市本身。

  • circles Since the last crisis, S&P500 has increased

    圈 自上一次危機以來,S&P500指數已經增加了。

  • dramatically, this growth is definitely unsustainable and when it crashes, it's going to create

    劇,這種增長肯定是不可持續的,當它崩潰的時候,就會造成

  • a panic that's simply going to make things much worst.

    恐慌,只會讓事情變得更糟糕。

  • Graph 3 doors

    圖3門

  • You can't really avoid the recession because the world economy is so interconnected and

    你無法真正避免經濟衰退,因為世界經濟是如此的相互關聯,而且。

  • dependent on each other that a crisis in the largest economy in the world, will take down

    互相依賴,世界上最大的經濟體發生危機,就會被拖垮。

  • the rest of the world with it.

    世界上其他地方的人也會隨之而來。

  • But the recession isn't going to be forever, it might last a year, maybe two, maybe 5 but

    但經濟衰退不會是永遠的,它可能會持續一年,也許兩年,也許5年,但。

  • eventually it will recover.

    最終會恢復。

  • Just a year after the 2008 crash, in 2009, the sp500 increased by 26.5 percent.

    就在2008年大跌後的一年,2009年,sp500指數增長了26.5%。

  • So don't panic and sell your investments when the media will be shouting all over the place

    所以,當媒體鋪天蓋地地喊話的時候,不要慌張地賣出投資品

  • that if you won't sell now, you are going to lose every damn penny you have invested.

    如果你現在不賣, 你將失去每一個該死的一分錢 你已經投資。

  • Of course, some companies won't survive the crisis and go bankrupt as it happens in every

    當然,有些公司不會在危機中存活下來,破產,因為它發生在每一個

  • crisis, but if you are an investor in an index fund, you should be fine.

    危機,但如果你是指數基金的投資者,你應該沒事。

  • You probably will lose your job because companies will start cutting cost in order to survive,

    你可能會失去工作,因為公司為了生存會開始削減成本。

  • so if you are not vital to their survival, you might be unemployed, so make sure you

    所以,如果你對他們的生存不重要,你可能會失業,所以請確保你

  • have some savings on the side, at least.

    有一些積蓄,至少。

  • But the smartest investors will start investing heavily because prices will be at their lowest

    但最聰明的投資者將開始大量投資,因為價格將達到最低點

  • point.

    點。

  • And once the economy recovers, they will be much wealthier.

    而一旦經濟復甦,他們將更加富裕。

  • That's why they say, the rich get richer.

    所以人們才會說,富者越富。

  • The topic of the global recessions never ends, that's, why the media started talking about

    全球經濟衰退的話題永遠不會結束,這也是,為什麼媒體開始談及

  • it even before the last crisis, ended but this video has to.

    它甚至在上一次危機之前,結束了,但這個視頻有。

  • So thanks for watching and until next time.

    所以,謝謝大家的觀看,直到下一次。

Its often called the greatest financial crisis in the history of the United States because

它通常被稱為美國曆史上最大的金融危機,因為......。

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How To Prepare For The 2020 Recession

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    Summer 發佈於 2020 年 08 月 24 日
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