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For 40 years, the U.S.
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led global economy has produced an enormous
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improvement in human welfare.
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Since 1981, the proportion of the world's
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population living in extreme poverty on less than
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a $1.90
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per day has fallen from 42 percent ,to 10 percent.
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But in countries with advanced economies,
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inequality of income and wealth has surged.
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And nowhere has it surged more than in the U.S.
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where reliance on free market forces has been
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strongest. That magnifies rewards for those at
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the top and leaves most others behind.
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The trend helps those with higher levels of
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education and hurts the less educated.
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It lifts residents of major cities while leaving
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those in small towns behind.
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For growing numbers of Americans it's just harder
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to get ahead.
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Why is this happened and what are the
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consequences? Here are five causes.
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The digital revolution creates enormous wealth for
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those with the skills and preparation to take
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advantage. But it eliminates what economists call
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"middle-skill jobs."
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Computer software and industrial machines now
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fill roles from clerical tasks to routine
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manufacturing that once produced middle class
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incomes for workers without college degrees.
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One of those forces is technological progress that
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has increased the value of an abstract problem
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solving, interpersonal communication or
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organizational skills.
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Things that highly educated workers tend to be
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very capable of and has simultaneously devalued a
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lot of cognitively intensive but repetitive tasks
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in offices and production lines and so kind of
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hollowed out the set of job activities available
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to non-college workers and sort of pushed them
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arguably downward into personal services, food
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services, cleaning, security, transportation,
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repair where their skills are more
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interchangeable with other workers and where
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there is less of a return to experience over the
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lifecycle.
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And so that has contributed downward pressure and
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wage pressure and economic insecurity for the
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less educated.
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So it's really kind of created a great world for
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the highly educated and a much less economically
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secure and inviting world for people who don't
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have high levels of education.
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Competition from emerging economies like China's
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combined with reduced trade barriers have further
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reduced prospects for workers without advanced
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skills. That's had devastating consequences in
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sectors such as textiles and furniture and
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leather goods.
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The biggest economic story of really of the
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century and certainly of the last 50 years has
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been China's rise.
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China going from a poor and backward country in
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perpetual political and economic crisis to a
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frontier manufacturer with pretty well-educated,
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highly available skilled labor using modern
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technology. So China marched up the productivity
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technology frontier between 1980 and the present
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at a rate almost unseen in history and because it
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was so vast, because it had so many people, so
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many resources, so much land, it could become you
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know a manufacturer for now at this point more
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than 20 percent of all world manufacturing value
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added. And that's not just a function.
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That's not a function of trade deals.
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That's primarily a function of internal
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developments in China.
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The decision to allow free mobility of labour to
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adopt Western technology and foreign direct
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investment and to start trading with the world.
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And that had a big effect on United States even
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in the 90s.
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But when China joined in 2001 that further opened
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the floodgates.
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And that had a dramatic accelerant effect on the
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rate at which competition entered the U.S.
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market for manufactured goods.
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And the rate of decline of U.S.
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manufacturing employment as a result of that.
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Over the course of just seven years about 20
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percent of all U.S.
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manufacturing jobs disappeared.
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And then they fell it fell by another cumulative
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eleven percentage points during the Great
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Recession. So effectively one-in-three
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manufacturing jobs no longer existed that had
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existed around 2000.
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Breakthrough firms such as Apple and Amazon now
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attract revenue across the world, which produces
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immense jackpots for the executives who lead
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them. And for the American cities they call home.
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You create the innovation and you have the global
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product market.
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You're going to have much larger earnings than in
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a previous generation.
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There is increasingly divergence and economic
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growth and economic outcomes across
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places in the U.S..
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And so there are just you know along with these
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superstar workers and these superstar firms when
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you have superstar cities in our increasingly
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winner take all economy.
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Meanwhile, the share of workers represented by
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labor unions has dropped by half, shrinking their
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power. The lowest paid workers have seen the
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buying power of the minimum wage drop as the
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government has not increased it to keep pace with
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inflation.
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Fewer than 70 percent of men with a high school
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degree or less are working.
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The eroded value of the minimum wage in many
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cases, the decline in unionization, things that
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have otherwise sort of hurt workers bargaining
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power in ways that amplified their weakened
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bargaining power are just coming from these
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external forces where they were already competing
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with technology or workers from lower wage
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countries for example.
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The shifting power balance has rewarded the
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wealthiest even more through policies in
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government and private institutions.
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From tax changes that increased their income to
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college admissions procedures that opened doors
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for their children above others.
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Actresses Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin are
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headed from the red carpet to federal court.
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13 parents and one coach who have pled pleaded
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guilty.
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The market incentives inequality creates for hard
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work and risk taking helps make America's economy
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dynamic but it also imposes costs.
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You need some inequality.
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The problem is when that dynamism at a point in
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time gives rise to dynasticism such that the
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next generation doesn't get an equal footing. Such
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that kids of affluent parents even if there are
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mediocre talent get to go to the best schools and
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get access to the you know the most after school
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investment, the most training and so on.
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And you know talented kids from less affluent
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families don't get to go to these schools.
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They don't get invested in in the same way.
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And that's a loss for all of us.
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That's not just a loss for them.
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That means our society will be less productive.
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And it fuels the nonstop turmoil in American
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politics. Voters have thrown out the party in
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control of the White House or one chamber of
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Congress in six of the past seven national
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elections.
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2020 promises to be just as contentious.
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I think we're seeing that loud and clearly in the
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sort of politics of the past few years.
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People are increasingly likely to report that
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they believe the system is rigged against them.
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This is damaging both for the functioning of our
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democracy. But I actually think also for the
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functioning of our economy.
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We're going to see people in increasing numbers
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sort of dropping out of our mainstream climb to
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economic success and so we've got this economic
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malaise. And now we have this social malaise
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going along with it.
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And and it's leaving the political I mean large,
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loud political cries for completely, I think,
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upending our capitalist system.