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  • - [Instructor] In a previous video,

  • we looked at this diagram over here,

  • which shows the growth in, per capita GDP since 1947,

  • and it compares to that,

  • the growth in after-tax income

  • of the bottom 90%.

  • And what we said in that video

  • is it looks like something interesting happens

  • around this region,

  • where from 1947, at least till about the late '60s,

  • it looks like the after-tax income of the bottom 90%

  • was tracking per capita GDP

  • or even growing a little bit faster than per capita GDP.

  • And then as we go into the '70s and '80s,

  • it looks like the slope of the bottom 90%

  • seems to have gone down a little bit.

  • And visually, it looks like the two percentages,

  • relative to 1947 crossed paths

  • as we get into the late '70s.

  • And one of the questions we asked ourselves is,

  • why do we see this trend?

  • Down here, they're both growing at around that rate,

  • and then over here,

  • you have your per capita GDP,

  • seems to be consistently growing

  • at a higher rate than the after-tax income

  • of the bottom 90%.

  • And one of the levers we theorized

  • is maybe it has something to do with tax policy.

  • And so that's what we're gonna focus on in this video.

  • We can look at this data,

  • that was from a New York Times article,

  • it shows us how the total tax rate,

  • federal, state, and local combined,

  • has changed over time.

  • So the way that you could think about this,

  • is in 1950, those from the zero to the tenth percentile,

  • so these are the bottom tenth in income,

  • had an effective total tax rate of,

  • it looks like around 16 or 17%.

  • While in 1950,

  • those in the 99th percentile

  • seem to have an effective tax rate

  • approaching 30%.

  • Those in the 99.99th percentile

  • had a tax rate of a little bit more than 50%,

  • and then those in the top 400,

  • had an effective tax rate of 70%.

  • And so once again,

  • this includes all forms of taxes.

  • And what's interesting about this graphic is,

  • we can see how this changes over time.

  • So you can see, as we go to 1960,

  • we do see some changes.

  • The total effective tax rate

  • for some of the higher income groups

  • has gone down by a bit,

  • but it's relatively high

  • and it's higher than the other groups.

  • Now as we fast forward to 1970,

  • we actually don't see a lot of change

  • relative to 1960.

  • As you get to 1980,

  • that trend, however, is continuing,

  • that the effective total tax rate

  • for some of the higher income groups

  • is continuing to go down,

  • but they're still paying a higher percentage

  • of their overall income

  • relative to other groups.

  • But what we see, as we move from 1980 forward,

  • some of that changes.

  • You even see this phenomenon,

  • as early as 1983,

  • that the top 400

  • are actually paying a lower effective tax rate

  • than people in the 99.99th percentile.

  • And you might say why is that happening?

  • Some theories are,

  • is that people in this highest group

  • are more sophisticated at being able to find tax shelters,

  • that a disproportionate amount of their income

  • might be coming from corporate profits

  • or capital gains,

  • and those start to be taxed differently.

  • Or you have changes in things like the estate tax,

  • which might disproportionately affect

  • some of these very highest groups.

  • But we can fast forward

  • and see how things have trended till today.

  • And what you see is a general flattening of the curve

  • and as you get to 2018,

  • this very highest group

  • is not only paying a lower effective tax rate

  • than folks in the 99th or the 99.99th percentile,

  • but they're paying a lower effective tax rate

  • than almost everyone.

  • And once again, the reason for that

  • is that a disproportionate amount of their income

  • probably comes from capital gains

  • or corporate profits,

  • and the taxes have decreased on those,

  • or they have been more sophisticated

  • at finding tax shelters.

- [Instructor] In a previous video,

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美國戰後的稅收趨勢|宏觀經濟|可汗學院 (US taxation trends in post war era | Macroeconomics | Khan Academy)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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