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  • Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

  • Corey Hajim: Are you there? Ray Dalio: Hi.

  • CH: Thank you so much for being here, Ray.

  • RD: Do you see me? CH: I see you.

  • You look great.

  • Thank you so much for being here, we really appreciate it.

  • RD: My pleasure.

  • CH: OK, so lay it on us, Ray,

  • how bad is it, how worried should we be?

  • RD: Well, I think you could look at this like a tsunami that's hit --

  • the virus itself and the social distancing.

  • And then what are the consequences in terms of the wreckage,

  • when you look at it?

  • And I think you have to think of that as incomes and balance sheets,

  • you know?

  • So it was a tremendous income hit.

  • And then the balance sheets losses.

  • And who has what savings and so on.

  • And then how is that dealt with.

  • In order to understand that,

  • you have to realize that there are these holes.

  • These holes in income,

  • and the holes in the balance sheets.

  • And then you have to realize

  • that there is the production of money and credit.

  • And who produces that money and credit.

  • OK, the money and credit comes in different flavors.

  • There is US dollar money and credit.

  • There is Euro-dollar money and credit.

  • And so when you look at the world,

  • and you're seeing it,

  • you're seeing a situation that is the same

  • as existed, really, in the 1930 to '45 period,

  • in that now we're seeing the production of a lot of debt,

  • a lot of borrowing by the government.

  • We're seeing zero interest rates

  • and not the traditional kind of monetary policy.

  • But the producing of a lot of money and credit --

  • so the Federal Reserve is buying the Treasury's debt.

  • And the Treasury is getting that money to, mostly, Americans,

  • in some imperfect but remarkably large way.

  • And the Europeans are doing the same

  • in their way.

  • That bank is a smaller bank,

  • because the world lives with about 70 percent dollars,

  • and only a small percent euro,

  • and they will produce theirs for theirs,

  • and there aren't many banks around the world.

  • And so the rest of the world

  • is going to have gaps, holes that won't be filled.

  • So if you think about that and you say,

  • "American printing of money and the borrowing

  • will leave us with a lot of debt and monetization,"

  • that's something interesting to talk about,

  • and we need to talk about that.

  • Who will pay these bills,

  • and how will that be shared,

  • will be something we need to talk about.

  • But you will know that you will get that money.

  • And the Europeans will get their versions of that money.

  • But we are in a new world.

  • And that world is most similar to the 1930-45 world,

  • and a lot of the world will not get that money in credit.

  • So there will be a big differentiation

  • as to which entities benefit and which entities don't.

  • And there will be a big collaboration as to how we will deal with that bill

  • and who will end up with what.

  • A big question of wealth distribution,

  • and all of that.

  • So that's the big thing that's going to be happening.

  • CH: How confident are you that some of that collaboration

  • can happen right now?

  • RD: We're now at one of those defining moments

  • that I've seen repeatedly.

  • The 1930-45 period, if you go back in history,

  • there's nothing new to this.

  • And it's a defining moment

  • in terms of how people are with each other.

  • So when you look at it,

  • will people come together

  • or, when it comes down to it, really,

  • will there be a taking care of oneself

  • and what does that define, and how will that go?

  • That will be, I think, a defining moment.

  • So I look at these histories.

  • If I can take a minute,

  • I'd like to just paint a template for you

  • that takes us, you know, over the last thousand years,

  • the things that have happened over and over again.

  • There was one pattern that I'd like to convey.

  • May I take a moment and do that?

  • CH: Absolutely.

  • RD: There are four things that are the driving forces

  • of our economy and our lifestyle and wealth.

  • And the first and most powerful is productivity,

  • which comes from people learning and inventing

  • and doing things well, just as Marko [Russiver] described.

  • OK?

  • And it grows slowly.

  • You know, one or two or three percent a year.

  • It grows slowly,

  • and it's not volatile, because knowledge isn't volatile.

  • But it grows,

  • and that raises our living standards over a period of time.

  • Then there's the short-term debt cycle.

  • The short-term debt cycle is, you know, recessions and expansions

  • and booms and recessions -- that.

  • They last about eight, ten years.

  • And then there's a long-term debt cycle.

  • And that long-term debt cycle,

  • which goes on about once every 50 to 75 years,

  • is when you begin a new type of money and a new type of credit.

  • That began in 1945.

  • The new world order at the end of World War II,

  • and with the Bretton Woods monetary system,

  • created a new monetary system in 1945, a new money.

  • So they wiped out, pretty much, the old money,

  • or they largely disposed of it,

  • and they began anew.

  • And that's the new world order,

  • which was the American world order,

  • and we have seen it,

  • and still, 70 percent of the money and credit that exists in the economy

  • is running by dollars,

  • and what you have, traditionally, is the breakdown.

  • And then the fourth influence is politics.

  • And politics is largely how we deal with each other.

  • And there's internal politics, and there's external politics.

  • The internal politics is, how do you deal with the wealth gap?

  • How do you deal with the values gap?

  • Do you have a common mission?

  • Do we have an American dream that we can agree on

  • and that we're pursuing that together,

  • or do you fight over wealth, and so on.

  • And so when you look at history,

  • that's what revolutions are in their various ways.

  • And there's always a revolution in one of these.

  • Sometimes those are peaceful revolutions

  • and sometimes they are disruptive.

  • But it's a wealth shift that needs to take place.

  • Roosevelt shifted policies and changed taxes and so on in that way.

  • And then in other countries,

  • there was the turning over democracy.

  • Hitler came to power because of that gap.

  • So how people deal with each other internally.

  • There's also external politics,

  • so that politics means between countries.

  • And you have a situation when there's a rising power

  • challenging existing power.

  • There is competition, and there is a risk of war.

  • And so how they deal with each other.

  • Whether there's a greater good,

  • or whether they are fighting with each other

  • is the defining moment.

  • There are always stress tests,

  • these big stress tests that come along once every 75 years.

  • And when they happen --

  • And this is a stress test.

  • And I think that what you're going to see is how we deal with each other.

  • There's enough wealth to go around.

  • But what do you do when you're outside the ring of support?

  • Let's say of the US dollar.

  • And what is that going to be like for those entities?

  • Or if you're within the ring of support, how will that bill be divided?

  • And how will we be with each other?

  • I think we're going to have to reconsider

  • who has what,

  • what is it about education, and so on.

  • So that's what we're in, I think.

  • CH: And I want to get to --

  • because you've written extensively about how capitalism needs to change,

  • and some of the things

  • that we should be thinking about and doing,

  • and I want to definitely get to that a little bit later on,

  • but I am curious right now, just from a practical level,

  • do you think that we're headed into a global depression?

  • RD: Yes, but I want to be careful about what I use -- the word.

  • CH: Absolutely.

  • RD: To be technical.

  • The word is an evocative word.

  • And it can be scary and so on.

  • So what do you mean by a "depression," OK?

  • Something like happened in the 1930s,

  • so just to repeat:

  • 1929 to 1932, there was a fall in the economy.

  • And double-digit unemployment rates.

  • And a magnitude of fall in the economy, like, about 10 percent.

  • Do I think we're in that?

  • Yes.

  • How was that dealt with, 1933?

  • What they did is they printed a lot of money.

  • And the government came out with the same type of programs

  • that we're having now.

  • Yes, OK, same thing.

  • Interest rates hit zero.

  • Same thing, OK, same dynamics.

  • And then, there is --

  • That money causes an expansion from that point.

  • How long does it take for the stock market

  • to exceed its highs?

  • Or how long does it take for the economy to exceed its former highs?

  • A long time.

  • OK.

  • Do I think that's what we're in?

  • Yes, that's what we're in.

  • We've seen that happen repeatedly in history.

  • Saw it many, many times; it's just the most recent one.

  • And there's a structure to that.

  • So yes, this is not a recession.

  • This is a breakdown,

  • an operation that I'm just describing in terms of how it's dealt with,

  • the production of money and credit and all of that.

  • That's what we're in.

  • CH: And so you've talked about,

  • there are sort of four levers to recovery after a depression:

  • cutting spending, also known as austerity;

  • debt restructuring, or forgiveness;

  • redistribution of wealth through taxes, potentially;

  • and printing of money,

  • some of these things you've mentioned.

  • Will those things get us out of this situation,

  • since, as you feel, it's happened before?

  • But how would you think about balancing these tools right now?

  • RD: Yeah, those are the tools since eternity, basically,

  • since recorded history.

  • Those are the ones that operated,

  • and I think what you're going to see is a combination you're seeing,

  • of printing money and redistribution.

  • And I think it will last ...

  • These things happen pretty quickly,

  • they last maybe a couple or three years in terms of that process.

  • And then you have a rebuilding.

  • And they're dealt with with creativity.

  • The greatest force, through time,

  • is inventiveness, human inventiveness,

  • adaptability.

  • So you're going to see these restructurings happen,

  • and you're going to see the kind of inventiveness

  • that you just saw from Marko, OK?

  • And it's the power of that adaptation that is the greatest power.

  • I did a study,

  • which is on LinkedIn if anyone wants to see it,

  • and it goes back 500 years.

  • And it shows real GDP.

  • In other words,