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  • The COVID-19 virus has been the one thing on everyone's minds since the start of 2020, as what seemed like an isolated incident quickly spiralled into a global disaster, infectingat the time of this writing, March 31, 2020—close to a million people.

    新冠病毒是每個人從 2020 年初就開始煩惱的事,一個看似為個別的事件卻急速惡化成一場全球性災難,截至這篇稿發佈前,也就是 2020.3.31 當天為止,已經有接近 100 萬人感染新冠肺炎。

  • It's physically impossible to go to any reputable news source and not be bombarded with anxiety-inducing headlines about the latest infection numbers and the death tolls.

    基本上不太可能在看值得信賴的新聞時,不被有關最新感染人數和死亡人數的頭條所引發焦慮。

  • The question has probably crossed your mind: Isn't there more we can do?

    你可能想過這些問題:我們還能多做些什麼?

  • How and when is this nightmare likely to end?

    這場噩夢如何且何時才可能結束?

  • Well, based on the opinions of the world's leading experts, we hope to provide you with some of those answers to those questions today.

    根據世界各地頂尖專家們的意見,希望今天能提供一些關於這些問題的答案給你們。

  • Science writer Ed Yong, who wrote an article over two years ago explaining why a global pandemic was basically unavoidable, has said that there are three potential ways the pandemic can come to an end: the unlikely way, the dangerous way, and the long way.

    科普作家 Ed Yong 在兩年多前寫過一篇文章,文中解釋全球大流行病基本上是無法避免的原因,他說有三種可能的方式可以將大流行病畫下句點:不太可能的方式、危險的方式以及長久的方式。

  • Yong posits that the unlikely way would involve all the world's nations suddenly cleaning up their act, and simultaneously getting their viral situations under control through a mix of strong quarantine measures and mass-testing rollouts, much like the 2003 SARS outbreak.

    Yong 假設「不太可能的方式」會是世界上所有國家在突然之間一起改革,與此同時,以強而有力的隔離措施和推出大規模檢測的方式控制病毒的情況,就如同 2003 年 SARS 爆發時所做的一樣。

  • Considering how far the situation has escalated already, and the poor job many major world powers have done in both preparing for and then controlling the spread of, this particular scenario feels more like a pipe dream than a viable choice.

    有鑒於目前情況惡化的程度,以及世界上許多強權國家在準備和控制病毒傳播上所做的應變措施都是極為糟糕的,使得整場局面更像是行不通的妄想,而非可行的選擇。

  • Take the U.S., one of the most developed and prosperous nations in the world, which has become the global epicentre for the pandemic.

    舉美國為例,美國是世界上高度發展且繁榮的國家之一,目前卻成為全球大流行病的集中地。

  • All predictive models created prior to the actual pandemic took it as a given that the U.S. would quickly create and widely distribute an effective viral test, which is the foundation of any successful pandemic response.

    所有在病毒實際大流行前所製造的預測模型都假設,美國可以快速創造並廣泛分發有效的病毒檢測,畢竟病毒檢測為成功阻止大流行病的基礎應對措施。

  • -The U.S. hasn't done that testing and as of today, doesn't look to have a plan in place for making tests available to a large segment of the population. -[Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.]

    美國至今沒有研發出廣泛分發的病毒檢測措施,而且並沒有尋求能使檢測應用在大量人口上的方法。

  • While Italy and Spain have been ravaged by COVID-19, for the U.S., the worst is yet to come.

    即使義大利和西班牙已被新冠肺炎大肆蹂躪,對於美國來說,最糟的情況尚未開始。

  • The U.S. has a much higher population than Italy, but fewer hospital beds per capita.

    美國的人口比義大利多更多,但是人均醫院病床卻比較少。

  • Many models predict that deaths and infections will peak in April, possibly overloading the health care system, but this model relies on the assumption that all Americans will be observing quarantine or social distancing measures.

    許多模組預測顯示死亡與感染數會在四月達到高峰,並可能造成醫療體系負荷過重,但這個假設只在所有美國人都遵守居家隔離政策和社交距離措施的情況下才成立。

  • At the time of this writing, President Trump has not ordered a national quarantine, and many U.S. citizens still aren't taking the social distancing measures seriously.

    在寫這篇稿的同時,美國總統川普尚未下令實施全國居家隔離政策,而許多美國居民仍然對社交距離的措施感到不以為意。

  • In other words, things seem bad now, but an even worse disaster is coming down the track.

    也就是說,現在的情況看起來很糟,但一場更糟的災難即將發生。

  • The second possibility for how the COVID-19 pandemic might end is also the fastest, but it will also come with some pretty horrific costs.

    對付新冠肺炎這個大流行病的第二種可能方式或許為最快速的,但隨之而來的是可怕的代價。

  • You may have heard the term "herd immunity" thrown around lately.

    你可能聽說過最近被任意使用的術語——群體免疫。

  • This refers to allowing the infection to spread, either intentionally or not, with the assumption that those who recover will develop the proper antibodies to fight off the virus and become immune, protecting the overall population.

    群體免疫意思為傳播感染源,無論有意還是無意,它假設痊癒的人會發展出合適的抗體對抗病毒,並對病毒產生免疫以保護大眾。

  • This is essentially the epidemiological equivalent of allowing a fire to burn itself out.

    這項理論來自於流行病學,等同於讓火自己燃燒殆盡。

  • The problem with this kind of approach is that allowing a fire to burn itself out will often leave the world with little left to burn.

    讓火自己燃燒殆盡這種方式所帶來的問題是,通常會造成世界被燒得所剩無幾。

  • If this approach was takenas the UK government initially intended to domillions would die in the U.S. alone, with tens of millions worldwide.

    如果採用這項英國政府一開始欲使用的方法,光在美國就會有百萬人死亡,而全球則會有數千萬人死亡。

  • The third scenario is the most realistic, and will cause the least collateral damage to human life, but it will also mean it'll be far longer before society as we know it will return to normal.

    第三種假想局面最為實際,且對人類會造成最少的附帶傷害,但也代表著這會花較長的時間讓社會回歸正軌。

  • The general idea is that we will have to continue keeping up social distancing and quarantine measures, putting greater focus on areas where outbreaks flare up, until an effective vaccine can be developed.

    這個概念表示在研發出有效的疫苗前,我們必須持續保持社交距離和採取隔離措施,並將更大的重心放在疫情加劇的地區。

  • It'll basically be like treating the outbreak as a whole the same way as one would treat a single case of COVID-19: treating the condition symptomatically while the immune system fights off the disease.

    這項方法的基礎就是用治療單一案例的方式,治療因為大爆發而染病的全體:當免疫系統在對抗疾病時,治療已顯露的病徵。

  • While this may seem straightforward on paper, it's actually quite an intense process.

    雖然這聽起來很簡單,但實際上做起來會是一個劇烈的過程。

  • Not only will infections continue to occur across the globe during this elongated period, many vulnerable people will die as a result.

    感染不僅會在這拉長的疫情期間持續橫跨全球,也會造成許多虛弱的人因此病亡。

  • Sadly, the fact that more people will die as a result of COVID-19 is inevitable at this point.

    令人難過的是在此時,越來越多人會死於新冠肺炎是必然的事實。

  • The key at this stage is minimizing how many of those deaths occur.

    現階段的關鍵是要將死亡人數降至最低。

  • The actual creation of the vaccine will also take quite some timewhen factoring in testing, development, and distribution, to get full coverage it will likely take from a year to 18 months.

    疫苗實際開始製造會花很長一段時間,從測試、研發到分配,從頭到尾大概要一年至 18 個月的時間。

  • During that time, it's likely that the world economy will take a considerable hit as a result of increased consumer caution under social distancing measures.

    在這段期間,全球經濟很可能會遭受重大的打擊,因為越來越多消費者在社交距離措施的實施下而謹慎行事。

  • Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that there would be a 6.2 percent decline in U.S. GDP as a result of the outbreak, the biggest drop since the Great Depression.

    高盛公司最近預測美國的 GDP 會因為疫情爆發而下降 6.2%,這會是在經濟大蕭條後最大的跌幅。

  • Experts state that this won't mean two years of continuous lockdownit'll be more like several burst-like periods of social distancing. [Happy anniversary, honey!]

    專家指出這不會是持續兩年的封城,而會是幾個爆發似的社交距離期間。

  • The legacy of COVID-19 is likely to linger over the world for years to come, with millions of people losing friends and family members as a result of the disease, though the legacy will be considerably less morbid under this method than under an attempt at herd immunity.

    新冠肺炎所遺留的傷害可能會在世上留存許多年,即使這個方法的後果相對於全體免疫來說比較不可怕,數百萬人仍會因為疾病而失去朋友和家人。

  • Just when and how exactly COVID-19 will end though, depends on two factors scientists don't fully understand just yet: the virus's seasonality and duration of the immunity.

    新冠肺炎如何且何時會結束取決於科學家尚未完全理解的兩項因素:病毒的季節性和免疫的持久性。

  • Many viruses, such as the flu and common cold, are seasonal, meaning they have a tendency to abate during the summer months.

    很多病毒是季節性的,如流感和一般感冒,代表說它們傾向在夏天的期間趨於緩和。

  • Whether or not the same applies to COVID-19 will make a huge difference.

    季節性是否適用於新冠病毒會造成巨大的影響。

  • The same can be said for duration of the immunity, meaning how long a person retains the antibodies for natural immunity after first being infected.

    免疫的持久性也是同樣的說法,意思是個體在被感染後,留存天然免疫抗體的時間長短。

  • Because the seasonal flu and common cold mutate so frequently, the duration of immunity is relatively low, typically less than a year.

    因為季節流感和一般感冒經常產生變異,因此免疫的持久性相對地短,通常不超過一年。

  • The SARS coronavirus of 2003, which was more severe and deadly, had a considerably longer duration of immunity.

    2003 年的 SARS 冠狀病毒更加嚴重且致命,卻有相當長的免疫持久性。

  • If we as a species are lucky, COVID-19 will have a duration of immunity more like SARS than the common cold, but for now, we can only wait for scientists to develop the appropriate data.

    如果幸運的話,新冠肺炎會像 SARS 一樣有較長的免疫持久性,但目前我們只能等待科學家搜集恰當的資料。

  • In the end, the COVID-19 virus will only be defeated by outlasting it and attempting to minimize the damage it can do to people and society in the meantime.

    最終,我們將會藉由堅持到底的唯一方式擊敗新冠肺炎病毒,同時試著將它對人類和社會所能造成的傷害降至最低。

  • -There's no magic silver bullet to solve this situation, only conscientious and responsible personal choices, mixed with sensible government policy and vaccine development. -[There's no magic cure for this, we need to be wise and responsible.]

    沒有萬靈丹可以解決這個情況,唯有藉由盡責且負責的個人選擇加上明智的政府政策和疫苗的研發,才能度過難關。

  • When the COVID-19 problem finally subsides, most likely in either late 2021 or early 2022, we'll probably have to deal with a barrage of secondary problems, from a shattered or transformed economy to an international pandemic of mental health disorders like PTSD.

    當新冠肺炎的難關終至趨緩,最可能時間點為 2021 下半年或 2022 上半年,我們可能必須處理接二連三的續發性問題,從擊垮的或變革的經濟,至國際性大流行的心理健康失調症如創傷壓力症候群。

  • But for now, while solutions are still being developed by the world governments, it's probably smartest for you to focus on keeping yourself safe.

    就目前而言,儘管各國政府仍在思索解決方法,最明智的就是將重心放在保持自身安全上。

  • Remember: To keep you and others safe from COVID-19, your best bet is to socially isolate yourself and maintain good hygiene. [I'm doing what I can to keep myself and my loved ones safewhat about you?]

    記住:為了避免自己和他人感染新冠肺炎,最明智的作法就是自我隔離並保持好的衛生習慣。[我盡我所能來保護我自己和所愛的人的安全,你呢?]

  • The rest, we're sad to admit, is out of your hands.

    而我們必須認知到,剩下的事不是我們所能掌控的。

  • Want to remain informed about all things pandemic?

    想要得知最新有關大流行病的資訊嗎?

  • Go check out United States' Plan for a Pandemic and What If Ebola Infected the Whole World?

    去看看以下這兩支影片 United States' Plan for a Pandemic 和 What If Ebola Infected the Whole World 吧!

  • Stay informed, stay safe, and stay isolated.

    更新最新情況、保持安全並與他人保持距離。

The COVID-19 virus has been the one thing on everyone's minds since the start of 2020, as what seemed like an isolated incident quickly spiralled into a global disaster, infectingat the time of this writing, March 31, 2020—close to a million people.

新冠病毒是每個人從 2020 年初就開始煩惱的事,一個看似為個別的事件卻急速惡化成一場全球性災難,截至這篇稿發佈前,也就是 2020.3.31 當天為止,已經有接近 100 萬人感染新冠肺炎。

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【新冠肺炎】疫情何時才會結束? (When Will Coronavirus Pandemic End?)

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    Annie Huang 發佈於 2020 年 04 月 30 日
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