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  • Mm.

  • So coronaviruses a massive story?

  • Should we be panicking?

  • Let's look at the data today we're gonna talk through for chart showing how Corona virus compares to different diseases on all sorts of measures on get How dangerous is it for you?

  • Let's have a look first at the number of cases that we've seen starting from day one of the epidemic, or when China first reported it to the World Health Organization.

  • And that's compared to the last famous epidemic stars.

  • The number of stars cases stayed kind of low and then stabilized at around 10,000 sir.

  • After about 100 and 76 days, just under 10,000 Onda get like he said, everyone was panicked about, and rightly so because it had very high fatality rate it did on.

  • Then let's look at how Corona virus coded 19 compares to that.

  • So again, we start from the first recognized case.

  • Yeah, so I can see from this.

  • There is cause for concern.

  • Yeah, you know, that's well over 60,000 after you know, 60 70 days compared Thio under 10,000.

  • After 100 and 76.

  • I counter to this.

  • That's still the number of that is very low, especially compared to stars.

  • We're looking at mortality rate of around 2%.

  • It's more in a range, but it's still out around 1500 around that, so it's very, very low.

  • Okay, so you're saying Yes, this case is lying may look scary, but the gas line there's no anything to be too worried.

  • Yeah, I mean, by comparison, for example, it's estimated that around 60,000 people die from seasonal flu in the US alone every year so far.

  • Looks like it's remained fairly contained here we have the Hu Bei province.

  • It's Theo epicenters worthy epidemic.

  • First started, it spread around China.

  • But as we get for them for the from who bay, then we see fewer cases.

  • And I guess that's because the Chinese government immediately enforced a lot of quarantines and that kind of thing, and there was a lot of travel restriction.

  • Now there have bean, obviously some cases in other countries.

  • But as we can see here on one of our own graphics, the vast majority have remained in china, and again you see the localization factor.

  • China is more connected to its immediate partners, so there a few more cases in places like Japan and rest of Asia than there are in the rest of the world.

  • However, you know, people as you looked at have died outside of China.

  • We've just had three deaths outside of outside of China.

  • If we compare that, for example, to the Spanish flu, when we were seeing just a fraction of the global mobility that we have today, then doing that period in 1918 we saw more deaths than in World War I and World War Two combined.

  • So I think that those numbers really put it into context.

  • Of course, that was before vaccines.

  • Just I guess the other thing that was, you know, millions of people moving around the world because of the war and that was sort of spread was today.

  • They've been able to really locked down.

  • Yes, in this case, it's interesting.

  • It's spread more doing business conferences, And so, possibly as a result, we saw that middle aged men seem to be more vulnerable to this particular virus, which is interesting.

  • But let's look at the deaths outside of China.

  • So three weeks after the epidemic started, we had just four cases reported outside of China Now where Mid Feb.

  • We're looking at just under 1000 on DDE.

  • They have been all over 20 countries in the space of how long has it been in just a couple of months.

  • And again we're looking at just the cases outside of China now.

  • Yeah, yeah, forgetting China for a second within this space.

  • Now we're mid February.

  • We have only seen so far three deaths.

  • We're gonna pin them in yellow ones in on Hong Kong.

  • One was in Japan, Any two old woman and one was in the Philippines.

  • The fatality rate is still very low on dhe.

  • Really?

  • The numbers say that it's not as concerning and as fatal as other epidemics, including the seasonal flu that we see every year.

  • It's how infectious is that I think is really what we should still be focusing on here.

  • Do we have a look at that?

  • Let's compare seasonal flu to Corona virus in terms of the infection, right?

  • Exactly.

  • And that start with two hypothetical family of five.

  • This is my family with seasonal food.

  • And here's my family with the current cove, it 19 straight of Corona bars So how many people today?

  • In fact, now we're seeing what happens in those first few days as Thea's.

  • These people get out, they mingle, they mix on that, that infection gets spread.

  • And, as you can see, it's spreading markedly faster for the people who've got Corona virus than it is for people with seasonal flu.

  • As we go through to a second cycle, you see this even more so.

  • Seasonal flu is essentially about the same number of people again have been infected words in Corona virus.

  • Instead of having just another 12 infected, it's announced another 34.

  • So it spreads far more rapidly, even though those two numbers 2.6 and 1.3 that we started with were not too distant.

  • And this is what it's known as it our value.

  • How many people are infected by another person, if it's below one that it's not contagious at all, why can see here is that the speed of contagion for coronavirus does in fact, look pretty terrifying.

  • But how does it compare with a fatality rate?

  • That is the question, And how does it compare with many other viruses as well?

  • The last time you look at that thing.

  • Okay, so what we were looking at, there was a difference along this horizontal access in infection, right?

  • Sort of value.

  • How contagious something is, exactly.

  • That's That's the number we have on the horizontal access here of how infectious different diseases are.

  • You can see measles is pretty infectious.

  • Yep.

  • Polio, relatively infectious.

  • The current strain of Corona viruses down here in about 2.6 common cold seasonal flu, less infectious.

  • But the other really important thing, as you've mentioned to take into account here, is the mortality rate.

  • Once you've got this virus, what are your chances of surviving?

  • What your chances of dying?

  • And that's what we have.

  • Two very famous epidemics.

  • Bird flu and Ebola, Very sticky.

  • If we were in a pandemic, we'd be in the region of year.

  • What we're saying is, as you move further in this direction, a disease is Maur infectious on.

  • As you move further.

  • Oh, is more deadly Maur deadly with Corona virus.

  • There still someone certainty.

  • We are in the early days, so that say it's more or less in this shade, but the range It's a range and one of the reasons for that uncertainty.

  • There's, you know, because of how China has been reported the cases yes, in initially to trying sort of contain maybe the even the panic for the disease they were under reporting.

  • And then there was a lot of suspicion about to the figures that they were reporting, because China does traditionally sort of fudge some of the figures, it's done.

  • So when it comes to economic growth when it comes to poverty.

  • Onda.

  • We talked about the range it that the key access here for that range actually was the vertical on the mortality rate.

  • And that's because if you think about it, a mortality rate is the number of people who have a disease, a virus who go on to die on DDE.

  • If either of those numbers the number of deaths or the number of cases is skewed is wrong, it's gonna skew the results.

  • So what was happening in China was because the Chinese were under reporting the number of people with the infection at all.

  • He actually made the mortality rates look a lot higher.

  • So it looks a lot more dangerous in fact, which is kind of counter productive, exactly as soon as it spread outside of China.

  • We saw that a CZ we saw earlier there were only three deaths.

  • The mortality rate was looking more like around 2%.

  • Exactly.

  • So for a while.

  • The epidemiologist looking into this, they had numbers showing that in parts of Wuhan and who Bay Province, the mortality rate with this hires 10 or even 18%.

  • Whereas, as you say, once we were able to look at cases outside of China where the data was more reliable, it was about 2%.

  • And that's because as soon as people moved out of China in like a British resident coming back to the to the UK, having been to a conference where they were reported cases of Corona virus, they get people like that would get examined as soon as possible.

  • We saw a case, for example, of a super spreader that ended up in front page of London newspapers in this country who had no symptoms, and that's why he infected 11 people.

  • He didn't know that he should have been in quarantine thing.

  • This is also one of the reasons that people are a bit more worried about the spread off Corona virus than sauce because in the case of SARS, if you weren't symptomatic, you couldn't actually affect anyone else.

  • The mortality rate for this is pretty low, but it's the fact that it can spread easily and without people even knowing their ill.

  • That is why maybe people are panicking.

  • And I think I'll be following this story closely, not because I'm now in the panic zone.

  • I'm firmly still in the no panic zone, but I think it's leading to a lot of interesting shifts in the relationship between Chinese society and government that might, you know, turn into a different story altogether where we're seeing a sort of breaking trust between the Chinese government and Chinese society.

  • So for me, I'll be following this closely, but maybe for citing different reasons.

  • So far.

Mm.

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B1 中級 武漢肺炎 新型冠狀病毒 新冠肺炎 COVID-19

冠狀病毒:我們應該恐慌嗎?| 我們應該恐慌嗎? (Coronavirus: should we panic? | Crunched)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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