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  • Measles is one of the most contagious diseases we know.

    麻疹是已知最具傳染性的疾病之一。

  • Just one person is likely to infect between 12 and 18 people.

    僅一個人就可以傳染12~18人。

  • That number is called a disease's "basic reproduction number," or R-naught.

    這個數字被稱為疾病的「基本傳染數」或是「R0 值」。

  • Scientists use it to describe how contagious a disease is.

    科學家用基本傳染數來說明一種疾病的傳染能力。

  • Zika?

    茲卡病毒?

  • It has an R-naught of up to 6.6.

    它的 R0 值高達 6.6。

  • Super contagious.

    極具感染力。

  • But the seasonal flu?

    而季節性流感呢?

  • Just a little over one.

    只稍微超過 1 而已。

  • And Covid-19, the disease caused by the [2019 novel] coronavirus?

    那麼 Covid-19 這個由冠狀病毒引起的疾病呢?

  • Just about two.

    大約是在 2。

  • That difference, between the flu and COVID-19, doesn't seem so big.

    流感和新冠病毒之間的區別看起來似乎不太大。

  • Especially when you look at them next to these really contagious diseases.

    尤其是當你把它倆跟那些傳染性真正強的疾病擺在一起比較的時候。

  • Plus, a lot of the symptoms of the flu and COVID-19 are really similar: a fever, cough, they can even both lead to pneumonia, which is ultimately how they can both be fatal.

    再加上流感和新冠病毒的許多症狀很相似:發燒及咳嗽,甚至一樣可以導致肺炎,而且最終都可能導致死亡。

  • So, thinking of COVID-19 and the flu as similar is a common, and frankly, understandable comparison to want to make.

    所以在比較兩者之後,認為新冠病毒和流感歸類似是很普遍的,而且坦白來說,是完全可以理解的。

  • "This is like the flu."

    「這就像流感。」

  • "It's a lot like the flu."

    「這很像流感。」

  • "I'd like to believe that it's going to end up more like the flu virus."

    「我想相信它最後會發展成像流感病毒一樣。」

  • But wait, let's go back to those R-naught numbers again.

    但先等一下,讓我們再次回到 R0 值。

  • If the flu has an R-naught of 1.3, that means each person gets either one or two people sick.

    如果流感的 R0 值為 1.3,這表示每個人都會導致 1 或 2 個人生病。

  • After ten rounds, that's 56 total people.

    在十輪之後,染病者總共會是 56 人。

  • And if we run the model with COVID-19's R-naught at two, if one person with it gets two people sick, who get two people sick

    假設我們以新冠病毒的R0值為 2 模擬的話,如果一個人可以讓兩個人生病,再讓兩個人生病...

  • After ten rounds, that's more than 2,000 people.

    經過十輪後,染病者會超過兩千人。

  • This does not happen with the flu.

    這是流感不會發生的狀況。

  • Because COVID-19 is very different and understanding "How?" is crucial to understanding how dangerous it really is and why we have to take it so seriously.

    因為新冠病毒非常地不一樣,而了解如何不一樣是了解其危險性是至關重要的,以及我們必須如此認真對待它的原因。

  • When we start to like, look for that comparison to the flu, we almost like, calm ourselves down.

    當我們開始把它和流感比較時,我們讓自己幾乎完全冷靜了下來。

  • But unfortunately, that's not quite the right reaction here.

    但很不幸地,這不是正確的反應。

  • Every year, the seasonal flu kills as many as 60,000 Americans.

    每一年的季節性流感使多達 60,000 美國人死亡。

  • As of late March, COVID-19 has killed about 34,000—across the whole world.

    而截至三月下旬,全球約 34,000 人死於新冠病毒。

  • But scientists expect that number to go up, way up.

    但科學家們預期這個數字還會增加,並遠超過現在。

  • Tens of thousands of people a year die of the flubut we haven't had this for a year yet.

    每年都有成千上萬人死於流感,但新冠病毒的爆發還不到一年。

  • We've only had this for a few months.

    才爆發不過短短幾個月的時間。

  • The trouble is coming, and we can predict it, and we can see what's coming, at least to a certain extent.

    我們可以預見麻煩要來了,在某種程度上我們完全可以料到事態會如何發展。

  • The first really big difference between COVID-19 and the flu is how long it takes you to feel sick.

    新冠病毒和流感之間的第一個大分別就是:需要多久才會感到不適。

  • From the moment you're infected with COVID-19, it usually takes five days before you start to feel symptoms.

    從你感染新冠病毒的那一刻起,通常需要五天才會開始出現症狀。

  • But it can take as long as 12 or even 14 days.

    但是也可能長達 12 天甚至 14 天。

  • This is the incubation period: the time between when you catch it, and when you first realize you're sick.

    這就是潛伏期,在感染後到意識自己生病的間隔。

  • And scientists think you could be contagious during most of this period.

    而科學家們認為在大部分的潛伏期內,你是具有傳染能力的。

  • The flu, by comparison, has an average incubation period of just two days.

    相比之下,流感的平均潛伏期只有短短兩天的時間。

  • You get sick, and pretty soon you feel sick, and you know you're contagious.

    你中標了,很快你就感到不舒服而且你知道自己具有傳染性。

  • This is what we're used to.

    這是過去我們習慣處理、面對的。

  • But COVID-19 flips that around.

    但是新冠病毒翻轉了整個局面。

  • You can be contagious and spreading it around for several days, and up to two weeks, before it even occurs to you that you're sick.

    遠在你發現自己已經生病之前,你可能具有傳染性並到處散佈病毒持續幾天,甚至是長達兩個星期。

  • And that leads to the next big difference.

    而這導致了下一個巨大的差異。

  • No human immune system had seen this virus before.

    人類免疫系統從未見過這種病毒。

  • Nobody has a natural immunity to it.

    沒有人有新冠病毒的自然免疫力。

  • In flu season, there's always a number of people in the population who are already immune to the flu.

    在流感季節,在群眾之中總是有很多已經對流感免疫的人。

  • That can be because they got their flu shot, or maybe because they've already had that flu strain.

    那可能是因為他們注射過流感疫苗, 或是因為他們已經得過流感。

  • And that limits the spread of the virus.

    而這限制了病毒的傳播。

  • When one person is contagious with the flu, they can only spread it to people who aren't immune who can only spread it to other people who aren't immune.

    當有人得流感時,他們只能將流感傳染給沒有免疫的人,而那個人也只能再傳染給沒有免疫的人。

  • That's why scientists and doctors urge us to get our flu shot every year.

    這就是科學家和醫生督促我們每年施打流感疫苗的原因。

  • If enough people have immunity, they can kind of shield the virus from reaching others.

    如果夠多的人具有免疫力,他們可以成為屏障使病毒無法傳播給他人。

  • The more immunized people, the more they can protect those that are susceptible to the virus.

    而接種疫苗的人越多,他們就能保護更多那些容易受病毒感染的人。

  • But COVID-19 is brand new.

    但是新冠病毒是個全新的病毒。

  • None of us have had it before, and there's no vaccine, which means nearly everyone on the planet is susceptible.

    我們沒有人曾經得過也沒有疫苗,這意味著地球上幾乎每個人都是容易被感染的。

  • So when a contagious person, who may not even know they're infected, comes into contact with others, it can spread like wildfire.

    因此當一個具有傳染性,卻不知道自己已被感染的人與他人接觸後,病毒就會像野火一樣一發不可收拾。

  • And then you see how much more dangerous COVID-19 can be.

    而現在我們來檢視新冠病毒相較之下有多危險。

  • Only 2 percent of people with the flu need to be hospitalized.

    只有 2% 的流感患者需要住院。

  • But 20 to even 30 percent of people who test positive for COVID-19 do.

    但是檢測新冠病毒為陽性的人,有 20 至 30% 要住院治療。

  • And we're still learning about COVID-19's fatality rate, but scientists think it's somewhere between 1 and 3 percent.

    我們仍在研究新冠病毒的致死率,但科學​​家認為致死率介於 1 至 3%之間。

  • But the flu's rate is even lower: 0.1 percent.

    但流感的致死率卻是更低:0.1%。

  • And that's a disease that can kill 60,000 people a year in the U.S. alone.

    而流感是一種在美國僅一年就可以殺死 60,000 人的疾病。

  • That's what Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US's leading infectious disease expert, tried to clear up to Congress.

    以下是美國頂尖的傳染病專家 Anthony Fauci 博士在國會上的說明。

  • "People always say, well, the flu does this, the flu does that. The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality of ten times that. This is a really serious problem that we have to take seriously."

    「人們總是說,流感怎麼樣。流感的死亡率是 0.1%,而新冠病毒的死亡率是十倍。這是一個我們必須認真去對待的嚴重問題。」

  • And he's just talking about the average across all age groups.

    而他只是說明全年齡層的死亡率平均值。

  • For older people, or people with compromised immune systems, it can be way higher.

    對於老年人或免疫系統不健全的群眾來說死亡率可能更高。

  • And that's especially scary when you remember all the other things that are different about COVID-19: the infectiousness, how hard it is to know that you have it, how susceptible we all are to it.

    而所有關於新冠病毒的不同之處更令人恐懼 :傳染性、有多難知道自己已經中標、我們有多容易被傳染。

  • Estimates vary, but some scientists have warned that between 20 and 60 percent of the world's population could become infected with the virus.

    評估各有不同,但有一些科學家警告佔世界 20 至 60% 的人口可能會感染該病毒。

  • Because COVID-19 has no cure and no vaccine, the only defense we have against it is social.

    由於新冠病毒還沒有解藥和疫苗,我們對此的唯一防禦措施是社交。

  • We can take ourselves out of the chainnot with immunity, but with social distancing.

    我們可以透過社交距離而不是免疫力來擺脫傳播鏈。

  • Just physically not being around anyone, and staying home as much as possible.

    只要不與任何人有肢體上接觸,並且盡可能地待在家裡。

  • But that only works if each of us takes it seriously, which is why comparing it to the flu, while understandable, is not helpful.

    但這只有在我們每個人都認真執行的情況下才會產生效果,這就是將其與流感進行比較,雖然可以理解但卻完全沒有幫助的原因。

  • It's natural to want to find a comparison, to want to make this seem small.

    想找個東西比較讓事態看起來不嚴重是很自然的事情。

  • When we use the flu as the backdrop, it almost numbs us, or it can numb us, and make us maybe even feel better about the current situation.

    當我們以流感作為參照時,會讓我們幾乎麻木或者可能使我們麻木,而讓我們對目前的情況感覺好一些。

  • Because the current situation is bad so now is not the time to be numb.

    但正因為目前的狀況很糟糕,因此現在不是麻木的時候。

  • We need to be vigilant, and then use our vigilance for useful actions.

    我們需要保持警惕,並進一步利用警覺性採取有用的行動。

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases we know.

麻疹是已知最具傳染性的疾病之一。

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B2 中高級 中文 美國腔 流感 病毒 新冠 傳染性 疫苗 免疫

【新冠肺炎】COVID-19 vs. 流感!兩者的不同處是什麼? (Coronavirus is not the flu. It's worse.)

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    Annie Huang   發佈於 2020 年 04 月 16 日
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