Home to one of the largest protected areas in the world (the Phoenix Islands Protected

Area), Kiribati is the epitome of a tropical paradise. Independent since 1979, Kiribati

consists of a series of atolls and reefs with a smattering of little islands perched on

top. The temperatures are a pleasant low 80s, coconut and breadfruit trees abound, and the

If you feel like booking a vacation in Kiribati, however, you had better make it snappy. Owing

to rising sea levels, two of its islands have already been lost to the waves (Tebua Tarawa

and Abanuea), and the rest are threatened. While a few of the islands are expected to

remain above water in 2115, what is left won’t be able to support the agriculture needed

The situation is desperate enough for President Tong to begin evacuating the islands already

(a process sped up by Cyclone Pam). Official appeals have been made to Australia, New Zealand

and Fiji to accept Kiribatians as permanent refugees.

It’s easy to imagine tropical nations disappearing into the Pacific. What is less easily imagined

is the loss of a European Nation to climate change. Never-the-less, this is not only realistic,

but in fact quite probable. Known as much for its dikes as for being the place to go

for legal drugs and prostitutes, much of the Netherlands is below sea level.

Unlike Kiribati, it is not simply rising sea levels that threatens the Netherlands. An

extremely modern nation with a powerful economy, the Netherlands can well afford to continue

expanding its dikes upwards to keep rising seas out. The real problem is that the same

dikes that can keep the sea out can keep flooding in. With half the nation at or below one meter

above sea level, the Netherlands has been constantly fighting to keep its head above

In 1953, A massive storm slammed into the Netherlands and neighboring Belgium. Floods

as deep as five-and-a-half meters deep swept the southern parts of the country. Only the

careful use of a ship to plug a dike prevented the flooding of North Holland, the second

most heavily populated province. With many scientists predicting that previously “safe”

Europe could soon be struck with frequent “Hurricane Katrina” level storms, we’d

book our Amsterdam holiday today if we were you.

What many people often tend to forget is that Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II is not the

Queen of England, she is the queen of the United Kingdom. As early as Roman times attempts

to unite the north and south of Britain had failed (resulting in the building of a wall

between Scotland and England) and later English attempts had done little better. The death

of Queen Elizabeth (the first one) in 1603 however led to parliament handing Scottish

king James V the crown of England as well. In 1707 the now 100 year old merger of the

kingdom was formalized as “the United Kingdom of Great Britain”.

These days, however, one of the most successful empires in history is facing a real possibility

of dissolution. The union of the two kingdoms began to show cracks as early as 1853, when

advocates began calling for Home Rule. In 1934 Scottish nationalists formed the Scottish

National Party, which has, of late, been a champion of Scottish independence (and separate

Referendums calling for the dissolution of the United Kingdom have come up in Scotland

roughly every 20 years since the 1970s. The first failed on a technicality. The second

was wildly popular, and finally established the home rule that had been debated for nearly

150 years, but did not actually dissolve the union. The most recent (2014) failed by a

narrow margin, but only six months later the SNP swept the parliamentary elections on a

wave of reaction to the narrow failure of the referendum. With 56 out of 59 seats possible

and opinion polls showing growing support for another attempt, it seems likely that

the United Kingdom will be no more by 2115.

Canada was the unhappy offspring of the Seven Years’ War. While Great Britain and France

were busy making a mess out of Europe from 1754-1763 their colonies in North America

were having a pleasant, and related, brawl of their own. The end result was the addition

of New France’s fishing holes to the British Empire. Unlike Scotland, where the two nations

acted like loving newlyweds for a while, French Canadians always approached things more like

Though becoming British in 1763 it wasn’t until 1840 that serious attempts were made

to properly un-Frenchify them. French Canada was merged with the rest of Canada, with their

main population becoming the province of Quebec. The French didn’t think much of this idea,

but went along with it, mostly out of fear of being invaded by the expansionists in the

U.S. (Reasonable, given its history with Mexico).

In the post WWII world, the U.S. stopped seeming to be the threat it had been, and the French

Canadians haven’t really felt a particular need to keep cooperating. Starting in the

‘60s a significant percentage of Quebec has been calling for sovereignty, led by the

Parti Québécois. The most recent vote on the issue failed by only 1% of the vote. With

almost a quarter of the Canadian population, most of the Atlantic ports, and total control

of the St. Lawrence waterway, the loss of Quebec could lead the rest of Canada splitting

up under pressure from regional differences and 1st Nation sovereignty movements.

Taiwan is in an interesting position. While many people are aware of the fact that China

insists Taiwan is still a part of China, what they don’t tend to recall is that Taiwan

says the exact same thing. The only real debate between the two is which government is the

legitimate one, the pre-WWII Republic of China government seated in Taiwan or the post war

Regardless of the politics, the fact is that, in terms of actual operation, Taiwan is a

wholly independent nation, and has acted as such ever since Chang Kai-shek led his Kuomintang

government to Taiwan in 1949. Despite its own insistence it is not, it maintains diplomatic

nations with many of the world’s nations, it maintains its own military (purchasing

heavily from trade partner America), it has a democratically elected government that has

unchallenged rule over the island. It walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck…

Still, the fact that both Taiwan and China insist that Taiwan is just part of China goes

a long way to removing the island’s nationhood. Events over time have further eroded this

position, such as the UN’s kicking Taiwan out and giving China the empty seat in 1971.

While there are some within Taiwan calling for an official declaration of independence,

the official government stance still calls for eventual reunion with mainland China,

and only 24% of the population responded favorably to independence during a January poll. As

such it is only a matter of time before Taiwan returns to the fold.

Just like China and Taiwan, North and South Korea both insist on an eventual reunion.

Unlike the first two, however, there is little doubt about how the second two will eventually

work out their reintegration. China and Taiwan are both powerful in their own right, with

strong economies, powerful technological potential, and stable governments. On the Korean Peninsula,

on the other hand, such parity does not exist.

North Korea, the result of the U.S.S.R. insisting on having control over the northern half of

Japan’s pre-WWII colony, is in the crapper. Of the 193 member states of United Nations,

North Korea’s per capita GDP comes in at 180th. The government runs entirely on the

principle of the cult of personality, with dictator Kim Jong-Un conducting near constant

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