to 不定詞

We all make decisions every day; we want to know

我們每天都作出決定；我們想知道如何做

what the right thing is to do -- in domains from the financial

to the gastronomic to the professional to the romantic.

And surely, if somebody could really tell us how to do

當然，如果有人能夠真的能告訴我們

exactly the right thing at all possible times,

在所有可能的時刻如何做正確的事情，

It turns out that, in fact, the world was given this gift in 1738

事實上，早在1738年，荷蘭博學家Daniel Bernoulli

by a Dutch polymath named Daniel Bernoulli.

And what I want to talk to you about today is what that gift is,

我今天想講的是這項智慧是什麽，

and I also want to explain to you why it is

that it hasn&#39;t made a damn bit of difference.

爲什麽這項智慧根本就沒有影響我們的生活。

Now, this is Bernoulli&#39;s gift. This is a direct quote.

這就是Bernoulli提供的智慧。這是他的原文。

And if it looks like Greek to you, it&#39;s because, well, it&#39;s Greek.

如果這看上去像希臘文，因為，它就是希臘文。

But the simple English translation -- much less precise,

把它簡單翻譯成英文——雖然不夠精確，

but it captures the gist of what Bernoulli had to say -- was this:

但它抓住了Bernoulli所表達的要點：

The expected value of any of our actions --

that is, the goodness that we can count on getting --

即是，我們所能期望得到的好處——

the odds that this action will allow us to gain something,

這就是，該行為能使我們獲益的機率，

和我們從中所獲得的益處的價值。

In a sense, what Bernoulli was saying is,

在某種意義上而言，Bernoulli所說的是，

if we can estimate and multiply these two things,

如果我們能夠評估這兩者並把它們相乘，

we will always know precisely how we should behave.

我們就會精確的知道自己應該怎麼做。

Now, this simple equation, even for those of you

那麼，這個簡單的公式，即使對那些

who don&#39;t like equations, is something that you&#39;re quite used to.

不喜歡公式的人而言，也是很平常簡單的。

Here&#39;s an example: if I were to tell you, let&#39;s play

舉個例子：如果我告訴你，讓我們來玩

a little coin toss game, and I&#39;m going to flip a coin,

一個拋硬幣的遊戲，我會拋一個硬幣，

and if it comes up heads, I&#39;m going to pay you 10 dollars,

如果是正面朝上，我會給你10元，

but you have to pay four dollars for the privilege of playing with me,

但你得花4元來得到這個與我玩的機會，

most of you would say, sure, I&#39;ll take that bet. Because you know

你們大多數人會說，好，我參加。因為你們知道

that the odds of you winning are one half, the gain if you do is 10 dollars,

你們贏的機會是一半，如果贏的話會得到10元，

that multiplies to five, and that&#39;s more

than I&#39;m charging you to play. So, the answer is, yes.

費用要多。所以，你會回答，好。

This is what statisticians technically call a damn fine bet.

這就是統計師們技術上所稱的很棒的賭局。

Now, the idea is simple when we&#39;re applying it to coin tosses,

那麼，當我們把這個原理應用到拋硬幣上時，是很簡單的，

but in fact, it&#39;s not very simple in everyday life.

但實際上，在應用到日常生活中卻並不那麼簡單。

People are horrible at estimating both of these things,

人們評估兩者的能力非常糟糕，

and that&#39;s what I want to talk to you about today.

而這就是我今天想要談論的話題。

There are two kinds of errors people make when trying to decide

人們在為自己的行為作決策時，

what the right thing is to do, and those are

errors in estimating the odds that they&#39;re going to succeed,

and errors in estimating the value of their own success.

Now, let me talk about the first one first.

Calculating odds would seem to be something rather easy:

計算機率看起來是件很簡單的事情：

there are six sides to a die, two sides to a coin, 52 cards in a deck.

一個骰子有六面，一個硬幣有兩面，一副撲克牌有52張。

You all know what the likelihood is of pulling the ace of spades

But as it turns out, this is not a very easy idea to apply

但結果是，這個道理如果應用於日常生活的時候，

in everyday life. That&#39;s why Americans spend more --

就不那麼容易了。這也是爲什麽美國人花了更多的錢——

我應該說，輸了更多的錢——在賭博上。

than on all other forms of entertainment combined.

這些錢比所有其他娛樂形式費用的總和還要多。

The reason is, this isn&#39;t how people do odds.

原因就是，人們並不用這種方式來計算機率。

requires that we first talk a bit about pigs.

我們先得談談和豬有關的事宜。

Now, the question I&#39;m going to put to you is whether you think

observed in any particular day in Oxford.

你認為被拴的狗多還是被拴的豬多。

And of course, you all know that the answer is dogs.

And the way that you know that the answer is dogs is

you&#39;ve seen dogs and pigs on leashes.

It was very easy to remember seeing dogs,

我們很容易記起見到被拴的狗，

not so easy to remember pigs. And each one of you assumed

但不那麼容易記起被拴的豬。而且你們每個人會假設

that if dogs on leashes came more quickly to your mind,

如果狗被拴的情景更快地出現在你的腦海中的話，

That&#39;s not a bad rule of thumb, except when it is.

這個憑感覺的方法還不錯，但也有例外。

So, for example, here&#39;s a word puzzle.

在四個字母的英文單詞裡，第三個字母是R的單詞

with R in the third place or R in the first place?

與第一個字母是R的單詞哪個比較多？

Well, you check memory very briefly, make a quick scan,

嗯，你們會很快搜索下記憶，作一個快速掃描，

and it&#39;s awfully easy to say to yourself, Ring, Rang, Rung,

對你來說記起這些單詞太容易了，Ring，Rang，Rung，

and very hard to say to yourself, Pare, Park: they come more slowly.

而記起Pare，Park就很難：它們在腦海中出現得更慢。

But in fact, there are many more words in the English language

而實際上，在英文裡，第三字母是R的單詞，

with R in the third than the first place.

比第一字母是R的單詞要多得多。

The reason words with R in the third place come slowly to your mind

你回憶起第三字母是R的單詞比較慢的原因，

isn&#39;t because they&#39;re improbable, unlikely or infrequent.

不是因為它們不存在，不大可能出現或使用頻率少。

It&#39;s because the mind recalls words by their first letter.

而是因為我們的大腦是用第一個字母來回憶單詞。

You kind of shout out the sound, S -- and the word comes.

我們好像是用大腦在讀這個單詞的音，S——然後單詞就出來了。

it&#39;s hard to look things up by the third letter.

我們很難用第三個字母來查找單詞。

So, this is an example of how this idea that

所以，這個例子說明一個道理，

the quickness with which things come to mind

can give you a sense of their probability --

會影響你對該事物出現的可能性的感覺——

how this idea could lead you astray. It&#39;s not just puzzles, though.

而這個道理可能會讓你出現誤差。這並不僅限於填詞遊戲。

For example, when Americans are asked to estimate the odds

that they will die in a variety of interesting ways --

these are estimates of number of deaths per year

這些估計數據是以每年每兩億美國人

And these are just ordinary people like yourselves who are asked

他們只是一些是跟你我一樣的普通人。問他們

to guess how many people die from tornado, fireworks, asthma, drowning, etc.

猜測一下會有多少人死於颶風，煙花，哮喘，溺水等等。

Now, you see a very interesting pattern here, which is first of all,

你們可以看到一個非常有趣的現象，首先，

two things are vastly over-estimated, namely tornadoes and fireworks.

兩者被大幅高估，即颶風和煙花；

dying by drowning and dying by asthma. Why?

When was the last time that you picked up a newspaper

你們還記得上次拿起一張報紙，

and the headline was, &quot;Boy dies of Asthma?&quot;

上面的的大標題是“男孩死於哮喘”是什麽時候嗎？

It&#39;s not interesting because it&#39;s so common.

It&#39;s very easy for all of us to bring to mind instances

of news stories or newsreels where we&#39;ve seen

我們曾看到報紙和電視上的新聞報導

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【TED】丹-吉爾伯特：為什麼我們會做出錯誤的決定（Why we make bad decisions | Dan Gilbert）。 (【TED】Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions (Why we make bad decisions | Dan Gilbert))