I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer.

我現在問你們幾題三選一的選擇題，用這個裝置，用這個裝置回答問題

The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster,

第一題，一年有多少人因天災而死亡

how did that change during the last century?

上一世紀又為什麼有這樣的變化

Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half?

比之前多兩倍，還是和全世界一樣，又或是比之前的一半還少

I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

我已經看到許多答案了，你們的回復速度比許多大學生還要快很多

They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

他們作答速度很慢，他們想很久，很久，很久

So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years?

30歲的女性會去學校進修多久：7年，5年還是3年

In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change?

過去20年來，世界上的貧窮人口比例是如何改變

Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.

Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve?

這個比例是以前的兩倍，多一點，差不多還是減少了一半

You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000.

你可以從這張圖表看到從1900年到2000年，世界上天災帶來的致死率

In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters

1900年，每年大約五十萬人因自然災害而死

Floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

水災、地震、火山爆發、乾旱等天然災害，之後變成怎麼樣了呢

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered.

這是Gapminder在瑞典問大家的問題

Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved.

一半的人回答增加兩倍，百分之38的人說差不多，百分之12的人說減少一半

This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down

這是災害研究的最好數據，而且目前仍有變化

And after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half.

二戰後，比例開始下降，比之前還減少了一半

The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know.

你知道世界上越來越有能力保護人民遠離貧窮

So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

所以只有百分之12的瑞典人知道

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random

黑猩猩不看晚間新聞，所以他們隨機選擇

So the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do?

而瑞典人答錯的比率比黑猩猩隨機的選擇還差，現在你們要怎麼做

That's you. You were beaten by the chimps.

這是你們的答案，你們也被黑猩猩打敗了

You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough.

你們的答對率比瑞典人好三倍，可是這還不夠

You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

You must have higher ambitions in the world.

Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

我們來看下一題：女性就學問題

Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school?

你可以看到男人就學八年，那女性就學多久

Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

我們也問過瑞典人這個問題，這給你暗示了，不是嗎

The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? (Laughter)

正確答案可能又是瑞典人最少選擇的那個選項，不是嗎

Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

女性就學時間已經趕上男性就學時間

This is the U.S. public. And this is you.

這是美國大眾的選擇，這是你們的

Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations

You're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me —

你們比兩倍的瑞典人好，但你們不需要我

I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties.

我覺得是因為大家都注意到很多國家和地區的女性都遇到就學困難

They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting.

他們一去學校就被禁止繼續讀書，這是非常令人討厭的

But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live,

most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less.

大部分國家的女性上學時間和男性差不多，或多或少

That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all.

這不代表性別平等，不完全是這樣

They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today.

他們仍受嚴重的限制，但學校教育在世界上是存在的

When you answer, you answer according to the worst places

And there you are right, but you miss the majority.

你的想法是對的，但你卻忽略的大多數

Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved

我們已經很清楚貧窮人口已經少了幾乎一半了

And in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right.

我們在美國問大家這個問題，只有一半的人答對

And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

你們知道的，很多人已經有先入為主的觀念

And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

而且在許多富有國家中，他們覺得我們永遠解決不了極度貧窮

Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened.

他們當然這樣認為，因為他們根本不知道發生什麼事

The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

要了解未來，首先要先了解現狀

These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run

這些問題都是Gapminder的無知計畫試驗階段的首要問題

And it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling.

這個計畫已經開始了，我老闆和我兒子Ola Rosling去年開始實施

He's cofounder and director, and he wanted,

Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.

Ola跟我說我們要更有條理地打擊無知

So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random

試驗已經揭發大部分人的無知率比隨機比率還差

So we have to think about preconceived ideas

And one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.

世界收入分配就是先入為主的旗醫一個觀念

It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day

這是各種收入的人數，從一天一塊錢

See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day,

在一天一塊錢這區有個隆起的小山丘

And then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

另外，在一天十塊錢到一百塊錢之間也有一個隆起的小山丘

The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps

世界上有兩個族群，這就像一個雙峰駱駝世界

The poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.

貧窮的一區，富有的一區，還有一些人夾在中間

But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed,

但看看這怎麼改變的，當我往前走，有了什麼改變呢

the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge.

世界人口逐漸增加，山峰也開始合併了

The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only.

低的山峰和高的山峰合併在一起，雙峰駱駝死了，所以我們現在只剩單峰駱駝了

The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty.

貧窮人數減少了，但可怕的是，還是有很多人處於極惡劣的貧窮環境

We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

不過我們至少還有這個族群，將近十億人在這裡，但現在就要解決這個問題了

The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

我們現在的挑戰是要分散這個山峰，了解大部分族群在哪裡

And that is very clearly shown in this question.

而這個問題已經非常清楚地顯示出來了

We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children

我們一定會問世界上有多少一歲的小嬰兒

who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent?

已經對麻疹和其他我們已經纏鬥多年的疾病有抗體呢，百分之20，50，還是80

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is.

看看瑞典的結果，你們知道正確答案是什麼了吧

Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines

然而，Ola測出我們所知道的東西的這種方法已經登上頭條

And CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there,

而且美國有線電視新聞網將這個結果刊登在網站上，還有附上題目

Millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments

已經有上百萬人民作答，網站上好像有兩千則回覆，其中一則說

"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

「我猜沒有一位媒體人全都答對」

So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences.

所以Ola跟我說：「拿著這個裝置，你已經被邀請進記者會

Give it to them and measure what the media know."

讓他們用這個裝置，並估算媒體所知」

And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media.

先生女士們，美國媒體第一次在會議上有非正式的結果

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