字幕列表 影片播放
-
You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,
你相信太陽比地球大許多，
-
that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet
而地球大概是一個球形的行星，
-
that rotates on its axis every 24 hours
每 24 小時繞著自轉軸轉一圈
-
and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.
每 365 天繞太陽一圈。
-
You believe that you were born on a particular date,
你相信你在某一個特別的日子，
-
that you were born to two human parents
由身為父母的人類生下你，
-
and that each of your human parents
而他們兩位
-
was born on an earlier date.
的出生日期在你之前。
-
You believe that other human beings
你相信其它人類
-
have thoughts and feelings like you do
有和你類似的思想與感覺，
-
and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.
環繞你身邊的不是擬人機器人。
-
You believe all of these things and many more,
你相信這些以及其他事
-
not on the basis of direct observation,
並不是藉由直接觀察，
-
which can't, by itself, tell you very much
因為有關太陽和地球
-
about the relative size and motion
的相對大小以及相對運動，
-
of the Sun and the Earth,
觀察所能告訴你的有限。
-
or about your own family history,
你的家族史和別人的思想狀態，
-
or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.
也是一樣。
-
Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on
其實你的信任是以
-
what you've been told.
道聽塗說為基礎。
-
Without spoken and written testimonies,
若沒有言語或紀錄的見證，
-
human beings could not pass on knowledge
人類沒辦法在人與人之間
-
from one person to another,
傳遞知識，
-
let alone from one generation to another.
更不用說 世代與世代之間。
-
We would know much, much less
我們對於我們的世界
-
about the world around us.
將會知道得非常少。
-
So learning about a topic
所以藉由詢問一位專家
-
by asking an expert on that topic,
或是相信權威
-
or appealing to authority,
來學習一個主題
-
helps us gain knowledge,
可以幫助我們增長知識，
-
but, it doesn't always.
然而，這也不盡然如此。
-
Even the most highly respected authorities
即使是最德高望重的權威
-
can turn out to be wrong.
也有可能出錯。
-
Occasionally this happens
這偶爾會發生，
-
because a highly respected authority is dishonest
因為德高望重的權威可能說謊，
-
and claims to know something
並聲稱他知道某件
-
that she or he really doesn't know.
他明明不知道的事。
-
Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.
有時候僅僅是因為他們犯錯了。
-
They think they know when they don't know.
他們認為他們知道 但事實卻不是這樣。
-
For example, a number of respected economists
舉例來說，許多知名的經濟學家
-
did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.
並沒有預測到 2008 年的金融海嘯。
-
They turned out to be wrong.
他們錯了。
-
Maybe they were wrong
這錯誤可能源自
-
because they were overlooking some important evidence.
他們忽略了一些重要的證據。
-
Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting
也可能源自
-
some of the evidence they had noticed.
他們對證據的錯誤解讀。
-
Or maybe they were wrong
又或者
-
simply because they were reasoning carelessly
單單只是因為 他們從完整的證據
-
from the total body of their evidence.
做出草率的推論。
-
But whatever the reason,
但不管理由是什麼，
-
they turned out to be wrong
他們就是錯了
-
and many people who trusted their authority
而且許多相信他們的人
-
ended up losing lots of money,
最後損失了許多錢，
-
losing lots of other people's money,
也損失許多其它人的錢，
-
on account of that misplaced trust.
都因為錯誤的信任。
-
So while appealing to authority
所以當相信權威可以
-
can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,
提供我們有用的知識的同時，
-
it also can sometimes be the cause
它也有可能造成
-
of monumental errors.
嚴重的錯誤。
-
It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish
我們每個人都應該有能力分辦
-
those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority
在甚麼情況下我們可以合理地相信權威
-
from those occasions on which we can't.
那些情況下卻不行。
-
But how do we do that?
但我們如何分辨呢？
-
In order to do that,
在這個狀況下，
-
nothing is more useful than
沒有什麼比
-
an authority's track record on a particular topic.
權威在某專業的歷史紀錄 更為重要了。
-
If someone turns out to perform well
如果某人在某一情況下
-
in a given situation much of the time,
總是表現得很好，
-
then it's likely that he or she will continue
那麼他就很可能
-
to perform well in that same situation,
在同一情況下 一樣表現得不錯，
-
at least in the near term.
至少就短期來說是如此。
-
And this generalization holds true
而這個推論對
-
of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.
不同領域、不同權威的說法 也是對的。
-
If someone can consistently pick winners
如果有人持續地在
-
in both politics and baseball,
政治及棒球上 選對勝利者，
-
then we should probably trust him or her
那麼我們也許可以相信他
-
to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,
會繼續在這兩樣上 預測正確，
-
though maybe not in other things
但紀錄不好的其它領域
-
where his or her track record may be less stellar.
我們可能就沒辦法如此推測。
-
If other forecasters have a poorer track record
如果其他預測員 在這兩方面
-
on those same two topics,
的紀錄更為不良，
-
then we shouldn't trust them as much.
那麼我們也不該那麼相信他。
-
So whenever you're considering whether
所以每一次你在決定
-
to trust the testimony of some authority,
要不要相信某權威時，
-
the first question to ask yourself is,
第一個要問自己的就是：
-
"What's their track record on this topic?"
「他在這專業上過去的紀錄如何？」
-
And notice that you can apply
值得注意的是 你可以將
-
the very same lesson to yourself.
這件事用在自己身上。
-
Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,
你的直覺告訴你 你遇到了對的人
-
but what sort of track record do your instincts have
但是自己直覺在這方面的紀錄
-
on topics like this one?
是如何呢？
-
Have your instincts proven themselves
你的直覺有證明
-
to be worthy of your trust?
它們是值得相信的嗎？
-
Just as we judge other people's testimony
就像是我們 藉由紀錄
-
by their track record,
來判斷別人的說辭，
-
so, too, we can judge our own instincts
我們也可以用紀錄
-
by their track record.
來判斷自己的直覺。
-
And this brings us one step closer
而這讓我們更進一步了解
-
to an objective view of ourselves
對我們自己的客觀看法
-
and our relation to the world around us.
以及我們與宇宙共存的關係。
